average margin of victory in those 12 has been 22.67 points
prior to that streak, they lost two in a row to the Hawks............by one point apiece. so it is conceivable that they could have won every game in the playoffs so far
their last loss was exactly 6 weeks ago today
with 7 1/2 left in the 4th Q of game 1 against the Cavs they were down by 22 points and won
last night with 6 1/2 left left in the 3rd Q they were down by 14 points and ended up winning by 10 points
San Antonio has to find a way to beat that team 4 out of the next 6 games
just the thought of betting against the Knicks gives me the willies
Meanwhile at the Memorial. Where art thou Scottie. Looks like my bet sunk him again. He should pay me not to bet him. My Ben Griffin play is in the bunker,for now. galaxy looking good with his Aberg bet.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
With the completion of the impending meltdown of my golf plays I hereby submit my resignation for future golf play. Have an outstanding bet on Scottie to win the next major. He will have a few days off there, he just doesn't know it yet 😀
Best of luck to all in your plays.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
Meanwhile at the Memorial. Where art thou Scottie. Looks like my bet sunk him again. He should pay me not to bet him. My Ben Griffin play is in the bunker,for now. galaxy looking good with his Aberg bet.
Scottie is busy complaining about hitting a supposedly great shot into the water and then spending the rest of his time on that hole saying. “What am I supposed to do, I’m tired of hitting good shots and then dropping because you (caddy) got the wind wrong”.
He’s getting unbearable. I might go to a tournament just to stuff his 100 million bank account up his ass.
With the completion of the impending meltdown of my golf plays I hereby submit my resignation for future golf play. Have an outstanding bet on Scottie to win the next major. He will have a few days off there, he just doesn't know it yet 😀
Best of luck to all in your plays.
i'm with you. during his round yesterday, Aberg was -3 and in 3rd place. fast forward to right now and he's +4 for the tournament. as i type this, he has made 8 bogeys thru 14 holes today. i literally cannot f*cking believe that Ludvig Aberg has made 8 bogeys in his first 14 holes today. he may not do that again for the rest of his career. even if a minor miracle takes place, i won't suddenly be content again. i'm experiencing the absolute grossest feeling right now. as much as i love golf and as intently as i follow it, i feel like i don't know a thing about any of these guys right now. it truly feels like you're better served closing your eyes and pointing to a name on the list.
and even though Scheffler is blowing my mind in the same fashion (+3), i actually have faith in him to make a push for you. he does it all the time. but i have zero faith in anyone i park money on.
oh, and i'm not buying the "well, the course is just playing extraordinarily tough" explanation because Ryan Gerard seems to be doing ok at -8 through 2 rounds.
a part of me hopes Aberg completely flames out and misses the cut so i can go back to feeling content again..........by not gambling. so f*cking disgusted.
@perkdog said:
And I still cannot believe I haven't bet lol
I almost ripped one today but didn't feel. It.
I'm eyeballing Yankees tomorrow night at home against the Sox
Yankees at home -149. Seems like juicy odds against a team that is floundering in last place with a home record of 10-21. The weird thing is the Red Sox road record is 16-14 which is quite unusual for a team with a 10-21 home record. So I guess the computer is simply taking that road record into account with the odds.
I mean it's an easy call that the Yankees should at least be -200 and more for this game. Could be easy pickens betting the Yanks, or of course could be a bitter disappointment. But in any event, I think -149 is a heckuva value.
With the completion of the impending meltdown of my golf plays I hereby submit my resignation for future golf play. Have an outstanding bet on Scottie to win the next major. He will have a few days off there, he just doesn't know it yet 😀
Best of luck to all in your plays.
i'm with you. during his round yesterday, Aberg was -3 and in 3rd place. fast forward to right now and he's +4 for the tournament. as i type this, he has made 8 bogeys thru 14 holes today. i literally cannot f*cking believe that Ludvig Aberg has made 8 bogeys in his first 14 holes today. he may not do that again for the rest of his career. even if a minor miracle takes place, i won't suddenly be content again. i'm experiencing the absolute grossest feeling right now. as much as i love golf and as intently as i follow it, i feel like i don't know a thing about any of these guys right now. it truly feels like you're better served closing your eyes and pointing to a name on the list.
and even though Scheffler is blowing my mind in the same fashion (+3), i actually have faith in him to make a push for you. he does it all the time. but i have zero faith in anyone i park money on.
oh, and i'm not buying the "well, the course is just playing extraordinarily tough" explanation because Ryan Gerard seems to be doing ok at -8 through 2 rounds.
a part of me hopes Aberg completely flames out and misses the cut so i can go back to feeling content again..........by not gambling. so f*cking disgusted.
I can remember about 5-6 years ago I had Cantlay for top 20. He proceeds to have the worst score of his entire career. Not equaled since. Never put a dollar on him thereafter. One seems to remember the bad losses more than the the great wins.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@perkdog said:
And I still cannot believe I haven't bet lol
I almost ripped one today but didn't feel. It.
I'm eyeballing Yankees tomorrow night at home against the Sox
Yankees at home -149. Seems like juicy odds against a team that is floundering in last place with a home record of 10-21. The weird thing is the Red Sox road record is 16-14 which is quite unusual for a team with a 10-21 home record. So I guess the computer is simply taking that road record into account with the odds.
I mean it's an easy call that the Yankees should at least be -200 and more for this game. Could be easy pickens betting the Yanks, or of course could be a bitter disappointment. But in any event, I think -149 is a heckuva value.
Those odds probably reflect Judge being out and Sonny Gray pitching for the Sox. Gray has been really good this year he dominated KC, but the Yanks aren’t the royals they could light him up even without Judge. Tough one to call.
With the completion of the impending meltdown of my golf plays I hereby submit my resignation for future golf play. Have an outstanding bet on Scottie to win the next major. He will have a few days off there, he just doesn't know it yet 😀
Best of luck to all in your plays.
i'm with you. during his round yesterday, Aberg was -3 and in 3rd place. fast forward to right now and he's +4 for the tournament. as i type this, he has made 8 bogeys thru 14 holes today. i literally cannot f*cking believe that Ludvig Aberg has made 8 bogeys in his first 14 holes today. he may not do that again for the rest of his career. even if a minor miracle takes place, i won't suddenly be content again. i'm experiencing the absolute grossest feeling right now. as much as i love golf and as intently as i follow it, i feel like i don't know a thing about any of these guys right now. it truly feels like you're better served closing your eyes and pointing to a name on the list.
and even though Scheffler is blowing my mind in the same fashion (+3), i actually have faith in him to make a push for you. he does it all the time. but i have zero faith in anyone i park money on.
oh, and i'm not buying the "well, the course is just playing extraordinarily tough" explanation because Ryan Gerard seems to be doing ok at -8 through 2 rounds.
a part of me hopes Aberg completely flames out and misses the cut so i can go back to feeling content again..........by not gambling. so f*cking disgusted.
I can remember about 5-6 years ago I had Cantlay for top 20. He proceeds to have the worst score of his entire career. Not equaled since. Never put a dollar on him thereafter. One seems to remember the bad losses more than the the great wins.
you're probably right about that. but, and i can only speak for myself, my bad losses are far more prevalent than my great wins. i've posted this before, but i'll do it again. i love Xander. he is consistently very, very good. if i bet on him every week i would have been a profitable gambler through the first 5 months of this year. but the one week i placed a healthy wager on him and he tied for 60th out of nowhere, it sent my mind reeling. he spooked the pop tarts out of me, so i left him for someone else like Aberg who has similar results. then, out of nowhere, he does what he's doing today. it doesn't compel me to chase losses, it repels me from continuing. which i guess is the silver lining.
if i was truly a legit gambler i would have gone back to the Xander well after that off week, as you said you've done yourself many times before. he came right back with T7 the next week and as i type this, he's tied for 8th today. i just looked at his scorecard and he's 3-under today with one bogey. meanwhile, the asshat i turned to just made his 9th bogey of the day on 18 and probably missed the cut after being in 3rd place less than 24 hours ago.
this thread should be about real talk, and it can't get any more real than this: i'm experiencing a mindf**k of epic proportions right now, so i'm taking a perkdog break on steroids. i was just doing just fine watching you guys from afar until #10000 came along and reeled me back in.
@perkdog said:
And I still cannot believe I haven't bet lol
I almost ripped one today but didn't feel. It.
I'm eyeballing Yankees tomorrow night at home against the Sox
Yankees at home -149. Seems like juicy odds against a team that is floundering in last place with a home record of 10-21. The weird thing is the Red Sox road record is 16-14 which is quite unusual for a team with a 10-21 home record. So I guess the computer is simply taking that road record into account with the odds.
I mean it's an easy call that the Yankees should at least be -200 and more for this game. Could be easy pickens betting the Yanks, or of course could be a bitter disappointment. But in any event, I think -149 is a heckuva value.
Those odds probably reflect Judge being out and Sonny Gray pitching for the Sox. Gray has been really good this year he dominated KC, but the Yanks aren’t the royals they could light him up even without Judge. Tough one to call.
Sometimes when I think odds appear too juicy, it could mean I'm missing something in the handicapping, and I get a bit suspicious about playing the game, one way or the other. Of course it could mean the computer didn't pick-up on something? That's where the skill comes in, if there is in fact any skill involved in this handicapping game, trying to beat the computer.
Not sure if anyone saw the popular movie, "A Beautiful Mind." I think it may have won some assorted Oscars. It's based on a true story about John Nash, who had an Einstein level IQ, particularly with mathematics, but he also suffered from schizophrenia.
Bottom line with his schizophrenia, he would sometimes see people or things that weren't actually there. I realize with sports betting, gamblers including myself could sometimes if not often see things, IE handicapping angles, that aren't really there as far as making money off it. That the bookies juice and their computer cannot be beat, no matter how ya handicap it.
I am up some money since going live this past football season. My $100 deposit is now at $291. That being said, I am cognizant, and will stay cognizant of the dangers of getting a swelled head doing this. And be extremely careful always, that my small success thus far could be simply some temporary good luck. And whatever handicapping angles I am now using, could simply be temporary variances with no long term chance of succeeding. IE: I may be thinking John Nash type thoughts that something is there to be successful at this handicapping game, when the reality is that it's not really there.
But as long as I keep winning, I'll stay with it. And if the $100 vanishes, so will my interest in sports handicapping. Frankly though even If i wind-up running it up into the thousands, I'm going to stay ever mindful of it could just be good luck, and whatever I'm thinking works, could very well be John Nash type delusions.
@perkdog said:
And I still cannot believe I haven't bet lol
I almost ripped one today but didn't feel. It.
I'm eyeballing Yankees tomorrow night at home against the Sox
Yankees at home -149. Seems like juicy odds against a team that is floundering in last place with a home record of 10-21. The weird thing is the Red Sox road record is 16-14 which is quite unusual for a team with a 10-21 home record. So I guess the computer is simply taking that road record into account with the odds.
I mean it's an easy call that the Yankees should at least be -200 and more for this game. Could be easy pickens betting the Yanks, or of course could be a bitter disappointment. But in any event, I think -149 is a heckuva value.
With the completion of the impending meltdown of my golf plays I hereby submit my resignation for future golf play. Have an outstanding bet on Scottie to win the next major. He will have a few days off there, he just doesn't know it yet 😀
Best of luck to all in your plays.
i'm with you. during his round yesterday, Aberg was -3 and in 3rd place. fast forward to right now and he's +4 for the tournament. as i type this, he has made 8 bogeys thru 14 holes today. i literally cannot f*cking believe that Ludvig Aberg has made 8 bogeys in his first 14 holes today. he may not do that again for the rest of his career. even if a minor miracle takes place, i won't suddenly be content again. i'm experiencing the absolute grossest feeling right now. as much as i love golf and as intently as i follow it, i feel like i don't know a thing about any of these guys right now. it truly feels like you're better served closing your eyes and pointing to a name on the list.
and even though Scheffler is blowing my mind in the same fashion (+3), i actually have faith in him to make a push for you. he does it all the time. but i have zero faith in anyone i park money on.
oh, and i'm not buying the "well, the course is just playing extraordinarily tough" explanation because Ryan Gerard seems to be doing ok at -8 through 2 rounds.
a part of me hopes Aberg completely flames out and misses the cut so i can go back to feeling content again..........by not gambling. so f*cking disgusted.
I can remember about 5-6 years ago I had Cantlay for top 20. He proceeds to have the worst score of his entire career. Not equaled since. Never put a dollar on him thereafter. One seems to remember the bad losses more than the the great wins.
you're probably right about that. but, and i can only speak for myself, my bad losses are far more prevalent than my great wins. i've posted this before, but i'll do it again. i love Xander. he is consistently very, very good. if i bet on him every week i would have been a profitable gambler through the first 5 months of this year. but the one week i placed a healthy wager on him and he tied for 60th out of nowhere, it sent my mind reeling. he spooked the pop tarts out of me, so i left him for someone else like Aberg who has similar results. then, out of nowhere, he does what he's doing today. it doesn't compel me to chase losses, it repels me from continuing. which i guess is the silver lining.
if i was truly a legit gambler i would have gone back to the Xander well after that off week, as you said you've done yourself many times before. he came right back with T7 the next week and as i type this, he's tied for 8th today. i just looked at his scorecard and he's 3-under today with one bogey. meanwhile, the asshat i turned to just made his 9th bogey of the day on 18 and probably missed the cut after being in 3rd place less than 24 hours ago.
this thread should be about real talk, and it can't get any more real than this: i'm experiencing a mindf**k of epic proportions right now, so i'm taking a perkdog break on steroids. i was just doing just fine watching you guys from afar until #10000 came along and reeled me back in.
gl fellas, and go Spurs!
You are so right when you said bad losses are more prevalent than great wins.
If you remember during NFL season I got numb to the brutal beats I took so.many, and by brutal I mean 1 play away from winning a grand, it happened so many different times.
I did make out ok by smashing the super bowl with an epic win, but looking back getting used to losing is not a good thing lol
I say we all meet up and attend a GA meeting, then afterwards play together in a high stakes poker game.
Take it easy on me because I don't understand poker all that well. I think three of a kind beats two pair, but I'm not sure. I can't see why 3 cards of something would beat 4 cards of something?
Well Aberg made the cut, so at least you're still in the hunt.
He's 4 strokes out of T20. I'm not going to sugarcoat what you already know, it's gonna be hard to climb over all those bodies to get there. He's going to need to shake off today's debacle, and focus on some solid golf for the next two days. Which he is capable of doing.
Also gonna tickle some Spurs props to hit threes, which worked out well for me in the previous game.
Probably overthinking this, but I may tickle some Knicks under props. Hoping the computer has jacked up their prop numbers, maybe a bit too high. If the Spurs can get away from the Knicks by sometime in the fourth quarter or earlier, the Knicks star players may not get enough minutes, and perhaps I easily hit those under props.
You’re welcome for the Red Sox - Yankees advice. Sox 5, yanks 3. Gray did pitch well like he’s done all year and the Sox offense scored enough runs. Hope you stayed away from betting on NY.
Have a Brunson prop under 29.5 points. He's only got 10 so far, so that one is looking good. Although Brunson is fully capable of lighting it up at any time with a barrage of points.
Dam Knicks are just so tough, leading at halftime. If I had any brains, I would just cash-out on tonight's ML bet and the series bet. At least get some of my money back, and with hitting the props, it would still be a slightly profitable series. But I'm too stubborn to do it. 😐
@Darin said:
You’re welcome for the Red Sox - Yankees advice. Sox 5, yanks 3. Gray did pitch well like he’s done all year and the Sox offense scored enough runs. Hope you stayed away from betting on NY.
Darin the calls on here that I remember, you've done quite well.
@stevek said:
Well Aberg made the cut, so at least you're still in the hunt.
He's 4 strokes out of T20. I'm not going to sugarcoat what you already know, it's gonna be hard to climb over all those bodies to get there. He's going to need to shake off today's debacle, and focus on some solid golf for the next two days. Which he is capable of doing.
Current odds on Aberg for T20 including ties are +160
May not be a good wager, but those odds are telling me that Aberg has at least a decent chance to finish T20. He has been very consistent in that regard, so I'm gonna play the rebound and place a nickel on him T20.
@stevek said:
Well Aberg made the cut, so at least you're still in the hunt.
He's 4 strokes out of T20. I'm not going to sugarcoat what you already know, it's gonna be hard to climb over all those bodies to get there. He's going to need to shake off today's debacle, and focus on some solid golf for the next two days. Which he is capable of doing.
Current odds on Aberg for T20 including ties are +160
May not be a good wager, but those odds are telling me that Aberg has at least a decent chance to finish T20. He has been very consistent in that regard, so I'm gonna play the rebound and place a nickel on him T20.
he cracked 70, so we have a puncher's chance tomorrow
golf bets are the worst. it's a roller coaster of emotions for 4 days. yet for some reason i love the torture. if we come up one shot short tomorrow, it'll be excruciating. and it'll make me wish he had missed the cut yesterday.
if he goes low tomorrow and ducks inside the top 20, i'll continue. if not, i won't place a wager until the NFL season commences.
@stevek said:
Well Aberg made the cut, so at least you're still in the hunt.
He's 4 strokes out of T20. I'm not going to sugarcoat what you already know, it's gonna be hard to climb over all those bodies to get there. He's going to need to shake off today's debacle, and focus on some solid golf for the next two days. Which he is capable of doing.
Current odds on Aberg for T20 including ties are +160
May not be a good wager, but those odds are telling me that Aberg has at least a decent chance to finish T20. He has been very consistent in that regard, so I'm gonna play the rebound and place a nickel on him T20.
he cracked 70, so we have a puncher's chance tomorrow
golf bets are the worst. it's a roller coaster of emotions for 4 days. yet for some reason i love the torture. if we come up one shot short tomorrow, it'll be excruciating. and it'll make me wish he had missed the cut yesterday.
if he goes low tomorrow and ducks inside the top 20, i'll continue. if not, i won't place a wager until the NFL season commences.
no pressure Aberg! gl us
I took a quick glance at the entire leaderboard. I think his -3 today was the best, a few others shared it. So no complaints about that.
Scottie pulling the old teaser routine. Goes from 5th to 12th. Back and forth. Probably finish 6-10th out of my top 5 play.
Still alive with English for top 20.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@stevek said:
Well Aberg made the cut, so at least you're still in the hunt.
He's 4 strokes out of T20. I'm not going to sugarcoat what you already know, it's gonna be hard to climb over all those bodies to get there. He's going to need to shake off today's debacle, and focus on some solid golf for the next two days. Which he is capable of doing.
Current odds on Aberg for T20 including ties are +160
May not be a good wager, but those odds are telling me that Aberg has at least a decent chance to finish T20. He has been very consistent in that regard, so I'm gonna play the rebound and place a nickel on him T20.
he cracked 70, so we have a puncher's chance tomorrow
golf bets are the worst. it's a roller coaster of emotions for 4 days. yet for some reason i love the torture. if we come up one shot short tomorrow, it'll be excruciating. and it'll make me wish he had missed the cut yesterday.
if he goes low tomorrow and ducks inside the top 20, i'll continue. if not, i won't place a wager until the NFL season commences.
no pressure Aberg! gl us
I took a quick glance at the entire leaderboard. I think his -3 today was the best, a few others shared it. So no complaints about that.
Book now has him at -210 for T20
Interesting, 2 strokes back from T20 and the book is offering me a 50% profit for a cash-out? ! wasn't expecting that.
It is tempting because I have no profit boost or anything on this. Remember though, the book I use offers a guaranteed payout. I wonder if their computer sees a very crowded field that could be at that last T20 position, and wants to perhaps cut their losses by getting some bets cashed-out?
I hope Aberg gets past that last T20 position for ya, otherwise you might have one of those badly reduced payout scenarios.
I'm 50/50 whether to cash-out or not? I think the better odds are to cash-out. I'll give it some deep executive thought on it tonight.
Well I already thought about. I'm trying to train myself into making the right decisions, so that if the time comes when I'm adding one or two or three zeroes to what I'm doing now, it proves profitable in the long run.
So I'm gonna cash-out and take the automatic 50% profit. Making the right decision based on the math. I sincerely hope that Aberg gets there for ya.
This dam $300 mark is like kryptonite to me. I just can't seem to make any headway busting past it towards $400. Finally was in a good position to break-out, if the D-backs would have won. However their batters decided to phone it in with two lousy hits and one lousy run. 😒
If Wemby makes that "easy" 20 footer, I think this line might be -5.5 or -6.
You'd think the Spurs would be highly motivated to win this game. The question is do they have any gas left in the tank to do it? Obviously that series with OKC took a lot out of them.
Comments
he handled it shockingly well
i might have flipped the table
The whole sequence of events was gross, doing a re deal was a death sentence , he was screwed and he knew it
Some times you just are not going to win, that's a perfect example of a hardcore lady luck or gods of gambling telling you "Nope, it's not happening"
Never saw that before. Absolutely brutal.
And I still cannot believe I haven't bet lol
I almost ripped one today but didn't feel. It.
I'm eyeballing Yankees tomorrow night at home against the Sox
Spurs now at -6.5
Money going the right way, in my opinion. The Sirens are calling me to bet the Spurs ML. Not sure if I can resist.
A double digit win for the Spurs would be no surprise. But I'll play it safe with the ML, if I play it.
If I were to bet the game, at most Spurs ML. Knicks smell blood. Spurs not concerned with spread.
Wonder what the opening odds were for a Knicks sweep.
the Knicks have won 12 playoff games in a row
average margin of victory in those 12 has been 22.67 points
prior to that streak, they lost two in a row to the Hawks............by one point apiece. so it is conceivable that they could have won every game in the playoffs so far
their last loss was exactly 6 weeks ago today
with 7 1/2 left in the 4th Q of game 1 against the Cavs they were down by 22 points and won
last night with 6 1/2 left left in the 3rd Q they were down by 14 points and ended up winning by 10 points
San Antonio has to find a way to beat that team 4 out of the next 6 games
just the thought of betting against the Knicks gives me the willies
but i'm rooting hard for anyone who does
Meanwhile at the Memorial. Where art thou Scottie. Looks like my bet sunk him again. He should pay me not to bet him. My Ben Griffin play is in the bunker,for now. galaxy looking good with his Aberg bet.
With the completion of the impending meltdown of my golf plays I hereby submit my resignation for future golf play. Have an outstanding bet on Scottie to win the next major. He will have a few days off there, he just doesn't know it yet 😀
Best of luck to all in your plays.
Those Sirens are sounding so beautiful. I've never heard such lovely voices in my life.
"stevek, bet the Spurs ML tonight, bet the Spurs ML tonight, bet the Spurs ML tonight"
Scottie is busy complaining about hitting a supposedly great shot into the water and then spending the rest of his time on that hole saying. “What am I supposed to do, I’m tired of hitting good shots and then dropping because you (caddy) got the wind wrong”.
He’s getting unbearable. I might go to a tournament just to stuff his 100 million bank account up his ass.
i'm with you. during his round yesterday, Aberg was -3 and in 3rd place. fast forward to right now and he's +4 for the tournament. as i type this, he has made 8 bogeys thru 14 holes today. i literally cannot f*cking believe that Ludvig Aberg has made 8 bogeys in his first 14 holes today. he may not do that again for the rest of his career. even if a minor miracle takes place, i won't suddenly be content again. i'm experiencing the absolute grossest feeling right now. as much as i love golf and as intently as i follow it, i feel like i don't know a thing about any of these guys right now. it truly feels like you're better served closing your eyes and pointing to a name on the list.
and even though Scheffler is blowing my mind in the same fashion (+3), i actually have faith in him to make a push for you. he does it all the time. but i have zero faith in anyone i park money on.
oh, and i'm not buying the "well, the course is just playing extraordinarily tough" explanation because Ryan Gerard seems to be doing ok at -8 through 2 rounds.
a part of me hopes Aberg completely flames out and misses the cut so i can go back to feeling content again..........by not gambling. so f*cking disgusted.
And to rub salt a bit into the meltdown, Harry Hall who tanked for me last week not even making the cut, sits in 16th place.
Yankees at home -149. Seems like juicy odds against a team that is floundering in last place with a home record of 10-21. The weird thing is the Red Sox road record is 16-14 which is quite unusual for a team with a 10-21 home record. So I guess the computer is simply taking that road record into account with the odds.
I mean it's an easy call that the Yankees should at least be -200 and more for this game. Could be easy pickens betting the Yanks, or of course could be a bitter disappointment. But in any event, I think -149 is a heckuva value.
I can remember about 5-6 years ago I had Cantlay for top 20. He proceeds to have the worst score of his entire career. Not equaled since. Never put a dollar on him thereafter. One seems to remember the bad losses more than the the great wins.
Those odds probably reflect Judge being out and Sonny Gray pitching for the Sox. Gray has been really good this year he dominated KC, but the Yanks aren’t the royals they could light him up even without Judge. Tough one to call.
you're probably right about that. but, and i can only speak for myself, my bad losses are far more prevalent than my great wins. i've posted this before, but i'll do it again. i love Xander. he is consistently very, very good. if i bet on him every week i would have been a profitable gambler through the first 5 months of this year. but the one week i placed a healthy wager on him and he tied for 60th out of nowhere, it sent my mind reeling. he spooked the pop tarts out of me, so i left him for someone else like Aberg who has similar results. then, out of nowhere, he does what he's doing today. it doesn't compel me to chase losses, it repels me from continuing. which i guess is the silver lining.
if i was truly a legit gambler i would have gone back to the Xander well after that off week, as you said you've done yourself many times before. he came right back with T7 the next week and as i type this, he's tied for 8th today. i just looked at his scorecard and he's 3-under today with one bogey. meanwhile, the asshat i turned to just made his 9th bogey of the day on 18 and probably missed the cut after being in 3rd place less than 24 hours ago.
this thread should be about real talk, and it can't get any more real than this: i'm experiencing a mindf**k of epic proportions right now, so i'm taking a perkdog break on steroids. i was just doing just fine watching you guys from afar until #10000 came along and reeled me back in.
gl fellas, and go Spurs!
Sometimes when I think odds appear too juicy, it could mean I'm missing something in the handicapping, and I get a bit suspicious about playing the game, one way or the other. Of course it could mean the computer didn't pick-up on something? That's where the skill comes in, if there is in fact any skill involved in this handicapping game, trying to beat the computer.
Not sure if anyone saw the popular movie, "A Beautiful Mind." I think it may have won some assorted Oscars. It's based on a true story about John Nash, who had an Einstein level IQ, particularly with mathematics, but he also suffered from schizophrenia.
Bottom line with his schizophrenia, he would sometimes see people or things that weren't actually there. I realize with sports betting, gamblers including myself could sometimes if not often see things, IE handicapping angles, that aren't really there as far as making money off it. That the bookies juice and their computer cannot be beat, no matter how ya handicap it.
I am up some money since going live this past football season. My $100 deposit is now at $291. That being said, I am cognizant, and will stay cognizant of the dangers of getting a swelled head doing this. And be extremely careful always, that my small success thus far could be simply some temporary good luck. And whatever handicapping angles I am now using, could simply be temporary variances with no long term chance of succeeding. IE: I may be thinking John Nash type thoughts that something is there to be successful at this handicapping game, when the reality is that it's not really there.
But as long as I keep winning, I'll stay with it. And if the $100 vanishes, so will my interest in sports handicapping. Frankly though even If i wind-up running it up into the thousands, I'm going to stay ever mindful of it could just be good luck, and whatever I'm thinking works, could very well be John Nash type delusions.
As @Darin stated Judge is out so that's the rub
I'm not touching it.
You are so right when you said bad losses are more prevalent than great wins.
If you remember during NFL season I got numb to the brutal beats I took so.many, and by brutal I mean 1 play away from winning a grand, it happened so many different times.
I did make out ok by smashing the super bowl with an epic win, but looking back getting used to losing is not a good thing lol
I say we all meet up and attend a GA meeting, then afterwards play together in a high stakes poker game.
Take it easy on me because I don't understand poker all that well. I think three of a kind beats two pair, but I'm not sure. I can't see why 3 cards of something would beat 4 cards of something?
😂😂😂😂😂
EPIC!!
That would be fun… even if we couldn’t get a word in edgewise with Steve there. 😂
Well Aberg made the cut, so at least you're still in the hunt.
He's 4 strokes out of T20. I'm not going to sugarcoat what you already know, it's gonna be hard to climb over all those bodies to get there. He's going to need to shake off today's debacle, and focus on some solid golf for the next two days. Which he is capable of doing.
Spurs ML -6.5
Also gonna tickle some Spurs props to hit threes, which worked out well for me in the previous game.
Probably overthinking this, but I may tickle some Knicks under props. Hoping the computer has jacked up their prop numbers, maybe a bit too high. If the Spurs can get away from the Knicks by sometime in the fourth quarter or earlier, the Knicks star players may not get enough minutes, and perhaps I easily hit those under props.
Happiness is hitting three props in the first quarter. 😊
Knicks have been way too tough to begin counting any other chickens yet.
Yes, just caught another prop with Castle.
This game is going way too good. I'll wait for the ax to fall. 🪓
You’re welcome for the Red Sox - Yankees advice. Sox 5, yanks 3. Gray did pitch well like he’s done all year and the Sox offense scored enough runs. Hope you stayed away from betting on NY.
Steve congrats on your Basketball props keep it going. 🥳
Hit every prop already except for one.
Have a Brunson prop under 29.5 points. He's only got 10 so far, so that one is looking good. Although Brunson is fully capable of lighting it up at any time with a barrage of points.
Dam Knicks are just so tough, leading at halftime. If I had any brains, I would just cash-out on tonight's ML bet and the series bet. At least get some of my money back, and with hitting the props, it would still be a slightly profitable series. But I'm too stubborn to do it. 😐
Tough decision. Surprisingly still have around 50% cash-out value on both bets.
I can't take this BS any longer. I just cashed-out on both bets.
Now I'm rooting for a Knicks blow-out, hopefully get Brunson out of the game, and win my final prop.
If the Spurs come back and win this game, and the series, more power to them.
Darin the calls on here that I remember, you've done quite well.
Good job!
Thanks. My inclination was to just play props in this game, and not play the game score. Cost me some money. Lesson learned. I think. 🤔
Brunson needs to score 17 points in this final quarter to screw me.
I'm not sweating too much. 😰
Lot's to cover here...
Ya got the Dolphins 🐬🌴 or the 49er's ⛏️🪙...???
My mom is coming home this weekend...
🙏🙏🙏
Yo P-Dawg...I'll catch ya on the Bubble 🗨🗨
on with Kennedy's Twin Look Alike...🍆🥰🍆🥰...
Geek Up....Html....🤓💻👌
♠️♠️♠️♠️'s...
🐪 🚬...
Monday's NBA game, Knicks -2.5
Seems suspiciously low in my view. But these dam NBA lines have been crazy wrong in many of these 2026 playoff games.
WOW
NY beats SA again!!
Glad I stayed away from NY/Red Eox
I'll catch ya on The Bubble 🗨🗨
♠️♠️♠️♠️'s....
Geek Up...🤓💻...🔌🏈...
Html...🤓💻😂🤣😅
☕️ 🧃 & 🥓 🍳 🍞
🐪 🚬...🐪 🚬 ...
Current odds on Aberg for T20 including ties are +160
May not be a good wager, but those odds are telling me that Aberg has at least a decent chance to finish T20. He has been very consistent in that regard, so I'm gonna play the rebound and place a nickel on him T20.
Played the D-backs and the Cubs in the afternoon MLB games.
Both with fat 50% profit boosts.
he cracked 70, so we have a puncher's chance tomorrow
golf bets are the worst. it's a roller coaster of emotions for 4 days. yet for some reason i love the torture. if we come up one shot short tomorrow, it'll be excruciating. and it'll make me wish he had missed the cut yesterday.
if he goes low tomorrow and ducks inside the top 20, i'll continue. if not, i won't place a wager until the NFL season commences.
no pressure Aberg! gl us
I took a quick glance at the entire leaderboard. I think his -3 today was the best, a few others shared it. So no complaints about that.
Book now has him at -210 for T20
Scottie pulling the old teaser routine. Goes from 5th to 12th. Back and forth. Probably finish 6-10th out of my top 5 play.
Still alive with English for top 20.
Interesting, 2 strokes back from T20 and the book is offering me a 50% profit for a cash-out? ! wasn't expecting that.
It is tempting because I have no profit boost or anything on this. Remember though, the book I use offers a guaranteed payout. I wonder if their computer sees a very crowded field that could be at that last T20 position, and wants to perhaps cut their losses by getting some bets cashed-out?
I hope Aberg gets past that last T20 position for ya, otherwise you might have one of those badly reduced payout scenarios.
I'm 50/50 whether to cash-out or not? I think the better odds are to cash-out. I'll give it some deep executive thought on it tonight.
Well I already thought about. I'm trying to train myself into making the right decisions, so that if the time comes when I'm adding one or two or three zeroes to what I'm doing now, it proves profitable in the long run.
So I'm gonna cash-out and take the automatic 50% profit. Making the right decision based on the math. I sincerely hope that Aberg gets there for ya.
This dam $300 mark is like kryptonite to me. I just can't seem to make any headway busting past it towards $400. Finally was in a good position to break-out, if the D-backs would have won. However their batters decided to phone it in with two lousy hits and one lousy run. 😒
When's football season start?
A's ML
D-Backs ML - giving them a chance to screw me again. LOL
No profit boosts, so both min-bets.
Knicks still at -2.5 for Monday's game.
If Wemby makes that "easy" 20 footer, I think this line might be -5.5 or -6.
You'd think the Spurs would be highly motivated to win this game. The question is do they have any gas left in the tank to do it? Obviously that series with OKC took a lot out of them.