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Central banks buying gold under the radar

derrybderryb Posts: 38,551 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Precious Metals

Central Banks Gold Buying Stronger Than Official Data Suggests

"Goldman now observes that London vault inventories continue declining while official UK export data no longer fully reflects those outflows. According to the bank, the discrepancy likely represents sovereign gold movements increasingly disappearing from trade statistics altogether. Somebody is getting gold delivered more than we know. This suggests that some portion of sovereign transactions is no longer being recorded.”

Velocity, Not Valuation Defines A Bubble.

Comments

  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,290 ✭✭✭✭

    Or maybe it’s not being exported

  • HeubschgoldHeubschgold Posts: 305 ✭✭✭

    derryB very interesting ! Thanks.

    For what it is worth, here is some grok krok on the related subject but specific to my query semantics.

    "No major, publicly reported noteworthy gold bullion transactions (large-scale buys or sells) by specific central banks, sovereign countries, or institutions appear tied specifically to May 18 or 19, 2026.

    Central bank gold activity is typically reported with a lag (monthly or quarterly via IMF, World Gold Council, or national disclosures), so real-time or same-day announcements for these exact dates are rare unless there's a high-profile event. As of May 18, 2026, here's the relevant context from recent data and news:

    Ongoing Buyers (Structural Trend in 2026)

    • Central banks overall remain net buyers, though at a moderated pace compared to peak years. Q1 2026 net purchases were ~244 tonnes (up 3% y/y and 17% q/q), led by Poland (~31t in Q1, continuing accumulation toward higher targets) and Uzbekistan (~25t). Other consistent or notable buyers include China, Kazakhstan, Czechia, and others in emerging markets for diversification and geopolitical hedging.
    • China's People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been buying steadily (e.g., ~8 tonnes in April 2026, its largest monthly addition in a while, marking the 18th consecutive month).
    • Ghana's central bank announced efforts (reported May 18, 2026) to require large-scale gold mines to sell 30% of output to it (up from ~20%), aiming to boost reserves and local refining. This is a noteworthy policy-driven buying initiative, not a spot bullion market transaction.

    Analysts like Goldman Sachs (note around May 15–18) raised forecasts, expecting central banks to average ~60 tonnes/month of purchases through 2026 (up from prior ~29–50t estimates), supporting prices amid diversification away from the dollar and geopolitical risks.

    Sellers

    • Russia, Turkey, and sometimes others (e.g., Azerbaijan’s sovereign fund) have been net sellers or reduced holdings at times in 2026 for liquidity/fiscal needs (e.g., war-related or currency defense), offsetting some buying. These were more prominent earlier in the year.

    Broader Context

    Gold prices on May 18, 2026, hovered around ~$4,500–$4,570/oz (down from earlier 2026 highs near $5,100+), with central bank demand cited as a key long-term floor despite short-term pressures.

    For the most precise updates on these dates, check sources like the World Gold Council’s central bank statistics, IMF reserve data, or national bank releases (often delayed). Large over-the-counter bullion deals by sovereigns are frequently unreported in real time. If new disclosures emerge for late May, they would likely appear in June/July reports."

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