2026 Kentucky Derby
BLUEJAYWAY
Posts: 11,337 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
It's that time of year again. 1 week to go. A field of 20 will run. Many variables and angles abound. Mike Smith seeks to become oldest winning jockey of the Derby. Father/son combination of the Motts racing against each other. Baffert in with 2 charges. Horses from Japan.
Who do you like?
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
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I just don't follow horse racing any longer. I can't even name a single horse in the race.
Would be nice if Mike Smith brings it home. He always was a class act.
I dont know the first thing about horse racing, but last summer the Fam and I spent a day at Churchill Downs while on vacation touring the grounds/museum (my daughter is into horses/racing) It is an amazing facility with awesome history. we toured the stables and i have never seen horses like that.
There is a whole "town" to the side of the track behind Churchill downs where all the workers live during race season. there is a school, church, restaurant, apartments etc.
I learned a lot and came to have a better appreciation of racing.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
FWIW here are my plays for the Derby: Commandment and Further Ado to win. So Happy and Golden Tempo to show. Good luck to all who partake in the race.
If I'm around a TV, I will catch only the race itself.
The track will appear to be dry and temps on the cool side.
You think these horses have any realization of what awaits them after they win?
Erik
Hopefully a good bath,rubdown, and the best oats,carrots,mints money can buy.
I was thinking more about the myriad or harem of mares - lol.
Erik
Me and a group of buddies will go to the local casino and rip it up, I won't even watch the race but will enjoy everything else
I haven't bet on a horse or dog race since the 90's
There's that too.
Here's the Exacta, COLD
6-Commandment
15-Emerging Market
You're welcome.
Dave
Do you ever consider reversing your exactas just in case the result flips? Say on a DQ. Or if the bet had 2 longshots?
I’m not crazy about the 15 post in a 20 horse race. Renegade drew the rail which is a huge advantage as long as the track is fast. I’ll post my picks (as usual) Saturday.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Looking forward to your picks as well as any other players picks.
I rarely box Exactas. I've been burned many times, but I'm a go big or go home guy.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1091105/2023-kentucky-derby
My 2023 Kentucky Derby was epic
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Heading out to Shreveport in a bit. A little hold-em and then to Louisiana Downs for the Derby.
I like to pick early and stay with it so I’ll swing by the Downs and get my tickets.
Track is cool and fast and I’ve always liked deep closers in 3 year olds. Further Ado and Golden Tempo fit the bill.
Good luck everyone and enjoy the day.
1 Renegade
6 Commandment 20 WPS
19 Golden Tempo. 5 WPS
18 Further Ado
4 horse Exacta box 1-6-18-19
4 horse Trifecta 1-6-18-19
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Enjoy Joe!!!!
Another derby winner. Oh my!!
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Cost $123
Win $120.60
Place $47.85
Show $29.75
Exacta $139.43
Total $337.63
Nice day at the track
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Small profit for me. Bet $8 got back $11.90 on my show bet on the winner. 2 win bets failed as well as my other show bet. Not a big player, but like to be in it.
Heckuva pick. That horse got up for ya!
sick derby
a horse that had that dawg in him
Golden Tempo running a 1.7 forty down the backstretch and sucking everyone up
A win is a win. Nice job.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Somewhat interesting facts. Golden Tempo had minor cracked heels on both front feet. And Renegade was equipped with special shoes.
Derby winner Golden Tempo out for Preakness. Not unexpected. Distance shorter, horse liked a longer race. Will be saving the charge for the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. Same Derby distance. Belmont Stakes shortened up from 1 1/2 to 1 1/4 while at Saratoga due to track configuration.
Crude Velocity (3-0-0)
Taj Mahal (3-0-0)
Two undefeated horses enter the Preakness. Crude Velocity is the early line favorite at 3-1
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
The trainer of Golden Tempo is a native of Saratoga Springs so she would like to win the Belmont Stakes there in front of the home crowd.
They need to do something about the triple crown. Its basically just dead after the derby every year with the winner sitting out the next leg
Fire AJ Preller
There is talk of increasing the 2 weeks between KD and Preakness to 3 and moving the Belmont to a later start. There is push back from the NYRA on any changes and purists who feel it dimishes past triple crown champions who survived the past conditions.
I definitely get the diminishing part of it but at the same time when the derby winner doesnt even try the second race it really makes it meaningless. Maybe move the Belmont to second which is by far the longest and then make it almost impossible to a horse to sit out the Preakness if they won both. Its really not that much shorter than the derby and its not like the trainers arent running the horses anyways during the time between
Fire AJ Preller
The winner sits out because stud fees are astronomical for a Derby winner. Losing the Preakness is like losing money for owners or syndications.
But I whole heartedly agree. A horse has one chance to win the triple crown and he should be given that chance
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Stud fees definitely are the money maker. What I dont get though is the logic of it. If you want to protect the stud fee why not just retire the horse after the derby. Skipping the second leg then running the third its the same risk of losing. Not to mention if you win the triple crown or even finish at the top of all three the stud fee goes up very quickly.
Fire AJ Preller
I doubt very much if the stud fees barely change one cent from winning the Triple Crown versus "only" winning the Derby and the Belmont.
Firstly, that horse was 23-1 in the Derby, and the race just happened to set-up perfectly for it. Secondly In the Preakness, it probably would have went off around 4-1, and likely finished out of the money.
That trainer is a sharp cookie. She absolutely is making the right decision, skipping the Preakness, and I think it's an easy call, certainly a wise call.
They change drastically.
Justifys stud fee more than doubled winning the triple crown to over 200k for a live foal. They will come back down if their kids arent successful or they have problems breeding, arent considered big enough etc. In those cases the pedigree of success would be even more important
Fire AJ Preller
"Justifys stud fee more than doubled winning the triple crown"
That is opinion which is fine, but it's not fact.
Besides these are highly inbred thoroughbred race horses. They all have various "problems", just a question of how bad. What if the horse breaks down in the Preakness and has to be humanely destroyed? Then the stud fees are zero.
Every possibility must be taken into account, and this excellent trainer is doing precisely that.
Its a fact his breeding rights increased. They dont breed while they race, they breed when they retire. They didnt double immediately but they went up significantly when the triple crown was won. His breeding right which had been sold for 60 million also went to 75 million for winning the triple crown.
Your argument about keeping them out of the Preakness applies to all future races which just supports if you are going to retire them do it dont skip a leg
But yes it is fact winning the triple crown increases breeding fees and sale prices, its not an opinion
Fire AJ Preller
"They dont breed while they race, they breed when they retire."
I never knew that. I woulda thought they'd find a way to sneak into a mare's stall at night when nobody was looking. LOL
Derby horses have to be 3 years old to qualify. Cus of the dating system there have been some two year olds biologically by a couple months
You get one shot at the Derby thats it, they dont run twice
Fire AJ Preller
It is a well known fact that all these star horses that retire at 3-4 years of age deprives the fan base of enjoying their performances. I fully understand why they do retire as the aforementioned reasons noted by the other posters have said.
But racing continues to delete it's fan base by this early retirement concern. Racing must battle for fans with so many other sports as it is. Imagine if all the popular known sports stars retired after 2-3 years.