@earlyAurum said:
I hope I just answered my own question using AI. Here is what AI provided:
Value Estimates: The 2025 1st release saw roughly $2.44 million in gross sales against $2.27 million in coin value (roughly 7.5% gross margin for the house).
This is very reasonable in my opinion for the services.
There is no need to get into details as it would likely start an argument but that estimate is WAY off. I believe that on box 1, the total gross profit was in the $1mm range.
If the gross profit was $1mm on roughly $2.5mm of coin value, then the expected loss is 28.5%. That would just be unacceptable in my view. Not a very good way to "take a chance" but still not as bad a PowerBall where it is greater than 80%!
I believe that is an approximately correct expected loss. I would estimate more but am uncomfortable putting a number on it without doing the math and I don't have easy access to the comprehensive list of "Buy Back" offers that would be required.
I might be tempted solely for the fun of it, but almost nothing I need for my collection. I think this may appeal more to new collectors or those who just collect random nice coins.
I'm no longer a player for ANY of these blind buys that hype the chances of winning a grand prize. I didn't buy the Witter, but have bought another, which was a waste of money each time.
Fall 2026 National Battlefield Coin Show September 11 & 12, 2026 at the Eisenhower Hotel Ballroom, Gettysburg, PA. Early Bird passes Thursday September 10, 2026 from Noon to 5pm $25 each. WWW.AmericasCoinShows.com
Comments
I believe that is an approximately correct expected loss. I would estimate more but am uncomfortable putting a number on it without doing the math and I don't have easy access to the comprehensive list of "Buy Back" offers that would be required.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
I might be tempted solely for the fun of it, but almost nothing I need for my collection. I think this may appeal more to new collectors or those who just collect random nice coins.
I'm no longer a player for ANY of these blind buys that hype the chances of winning a grand prize. I didn't buy the Witter, but have bought another, which was a waste of money each time.