@derryb said:
and for the record I was precise when I advised buying quality (.999) silver over the past two decades. I and others >who did so or now seeing the reward I predicted. While silver will see drops, my long term "prediction" is that it will >continue to reach record highs regardless of COMEX survivability.
But it is giving LOWER returns with HIGHER volatility and HIGHER DRAWDOWNS than other financial assets over most rolling time periods.
You might feel comfortable there, Derry. But most retail AND institutional investors with fiduciary duties will not.
How did silver give "LOWER" returns when it had gone up 28X since the 2002 bottom? The general SM (Dow and S&P) went up about 1/4 as much in the past couple of decades. What "draw down" is there if you're just sitting on it for 15-30 yrs? There's no interest or fees due on physical in your possession. Who cares about "volatility" if you're in for the longer term? One could say that those with fiduciary duties are short changing their clients by not diversifying them into PMs on a 3-15% level depending on their risk/wealth profiles. Those guys messed up big time if they didn't take advantage of silver dips in 2003, 2006, 2008, 2013-2015, 2018, March 2020, 2022 and got their clients diversified into PMs. It's a little late now to get in at $5 - $25/oz. Buying in at the dips is the key.....which is the benefit of such draw downs.
@roadrunner said:
How did silver give "LOWER" returns when it had gone up 28X since the 2002 bottom?
I think that overstates real-world performance. You picked the year where silver made a generational low and then used the blow-off top we just hit weeks ago.
Silver's gain from 2002 is impressive, yes...but I think 28x overstates the real world and a real investor gain over that time.
Stocks are up 8-fold since 2002 on a price gain only. 9% CAGR price only; 11% CAGR if dividends reinvested.
The general SM (Dow and S&P) went up about 1/4 as much in the past couple of decades. What "draw down" is >there if you're just sitting on it for 15-30 yrs? There's no interest or fees due on physical in your possession.
If people need money and are taking out say 4% annually then sequence of returns is critical.
I think you are cherrypicking a low for silver to the recent highs. Let's say that if we use $5 for 2002 then silver is up 8-10x since then based on the price for most of 2025 before the blow-off into the last 4 months.
It's an impressive return, RR, and I participated a bit. But as a financial professional I'd have difficulty selling it or claiming I acted in a fiduciary capacity unless the person had huge resources that weren't affected by putting 5-15% in commodities/PMs/silver.
Who cares about "volatility" if you're in for the longer term? One could say that those with fiduciary duties are >short changing their clients by not diversifying them into PMs on a 3-15% level depending on their risk/wealth >profiles. Those guys messed up big time if they didn't take advantage of silver dips in 2003, 2006, 2008, 2013-2015, >2018, March 2020, 2022 and got their clients diversified into PMs. It's a little late now to get in at $5 - $25/oz. >Buying in at the dips is the key.....which is the benefit of such draw downs.
I don't think most people can afford to tie up their serious capital in a non-interest, non-dividend paying commodity which has LONG PERIODS of no returns or even declines.
The average financial investor is not on these forums !!
Comments
How did silver give "LOWER" returns when it had gone up 28X since the 2002 bottom? The general SM (Dow and S&P) went up about 1/4 as much in the past couple of decades. What "draw down" is there if you're just sitting on it for 15-30 yrs? There's no interest or fees due on physical in your possession. Who cares about "volatility" if you're in for the longer term? One could say that those with fiduciary duties are short changing their clients by not diversifying them into PMs on a 3-15% level depending on their risk/wealth profiles. Those guys messed up big time if they didn't take advantage of silver dips in 2003, 2006, 2008, 2013-2015, 2018, March 2020, 2022 and got their clients diversified into PMs. It's a little late now to get in at $5 - $25/oz. Buying in at the dips is the key.....which is the benefit of such draw downs.
I think that overstates real-world performance. You picked the year where silver made a generational low and then used the blow-off top we just hit weeks ago.
Silver's gain from 2002 is impressive, yes...but I think 28x overstates the real world and a real investor gain over that time.
Stocks are up 8-fold since 2002 on a price gain only. 9% CAGR price only; 11% CAGR if dividends reinvested.
If people need money and are taking out say 4% annually then sequence of returns is critical.
I think you are cherrypicking a low for silver to the recent highs. Let's say that if we use $5 for 2002 then silver is up 8-10x since then based on the price for most of 2025 before the blow-off into the last 4 months.
It's an impressive return, RR, and I participated a bit. But as a financial professional I'd have difficulty selling it or claiming I acted in a fiduciary capacity unless the person had huge resources that weren't affected by putting 5-15% in commodities/PMs/silver.
I don't think most people can afford to tie up their serious capital in a non-interest, non-dividend paying commodity which has LONG PERIODS of no returns or even declines.
The average financial investor is not on these forums !!