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I can't comprehend what's going on with the 2026 uncirculated mint set's

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  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,571 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    @MasonG said:

    @NJCoin said:
    Because the Mint makes lots of other things, with far lower mintages, that are unavailable elsewhere that no one cares about. Uncirculated sets at $124.50 and proof sets at $107.00 are going to be added to that list for many people.

    I'm sure that's so. But then again, whatever the mint does, somebody will be disappointed.

    True. That said, do you seriously think anyone was NOT disappointed in a quadrupling in the price of uncriculated sets, year over year? Or a near tripling of the price of the base metal proof set?

    Probably not.

    @NJCoin said:
    Or that it's justified, because the Mint should be pricing to the secondary market?

    Personally, I don't worry about why someone prices their product as they do. If I'm okay with the price, I'll buy. If not, I won't.

    @NJCoin said:
    If so, proof ASEs should be sold through APs, and priced like bullion, since they don't seem to carry much of a secondary market premium. Certainly not any other than the "special" ones with lower than typical mintages.

    I don't worry much about how someone markets their product, either. As always, YMMV.

    @NJCoin said:
    Think that's going to happen any time soon? Are unsold back year sets going to be reduced when their price falls in the secondary market? Or is the secondary market only going to be turned to for pricing inspiration when it provides a justification to engage in a little price gouging?

    I don't have any idea. Or, as another poster has noted on other issues, my crystal ball is broken.

    To be clear, I'm not all that big a fan of the US Mint myself. I stopped buying from them sometime last century when I found them to be going in a direction I didn't see as compatible with my collecting interests.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 38,952 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:
    The subscriptions for these are currently available. I took 10.

    Edited to add: never mind. Gone again

    All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 3,653 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 23, 2026 5:29PM

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @MasonG said:

    @NJCoin said:
    Actually, the famine metaphor is spot on, because they are creating the shortage and then exploiting it.

    Everybody needs to eat. Collect coins? Not so much.

    Agreed. But the part about them creating a shortage and then excessively profiting from it is spot on.

    The part about people not needing 2026 uncirculated Mint sets to survive is why they are unlikely to sell out at $124.50. Doesn't diminish the point that they are going out of their way to exploit collectors. Without whom there is no Mint numismatic sales function.

    But it's not a shortage. And people WANT the rarities. That's why the metaphor fails horribly. All of these threads have not been banging for b unlimited mintages, they've been speculating on which mintages are low enough to hold value.

    And unlike the misplaced famine metaphor, the thread are now full of people canceling because the price is too high to be profitable.

    Now, an argument can be made that the Mint should go to unlimited mintages. But look at what has happened to the coins and coin sets with unlimited mintages: the sales drop EVERY year because they don't hold their value.

    The fact is that "we" (most not all) only want the (artificial) rarities. You even did it yourself with Superman per the other thread. You bought them when you thought they were going to short strike them then returned then when it turns out the mintage limit was fully struck.

    Yes, there are some people who buy them to stuff in albums. But I think they are in the minority relative to people trying to find value. It's not starving men, it's drug addicts. We can say "no".

    But it IS a shortage, if people would buy 500K, or a million, but only 190K are made available for sale. An ARTIFICIAL shortage, since they have capacity to manufacture to demand.

    And, yes, I am distinguishing everything else they make from the annual sets. Which I think should be widely available and made to demand.

    If any of them take off in the secondary market, great. But they should not be making them with a view towards that. And then pricing them to capture that.

    Again, if they want to be just another retailer, who happens to make product in-house, there is no excuse for pricing 500K proof ASEs at 2x spot, since the secondary market did not support that at $50 silver, and sure as hell does not at $100 silver..

    Justify whatever you want. I'm not wrong here.

    They are going to absolutely kill the market for annual base metal coin sets by pricing them at 2,000+% above face value. People are going to lose interest at that markup.

    Even for the oh so rare penny. A limited edition, monetized zinc disc that used to made in the billions, and now no longer circulates.

    Anyone who feels compelled to pay whatever the Mint demands for the ability to continue a set of a coin that no longer is made for circulation will get exactly what they deserve. Which will be setting real money on fire.

    Because no one in the future is going to care about these. At all. I don't even think what happened last year in the secondary market made any sense.

    Without an ability to make a significant score on these, they are not going to sell out. The risk/reward isn't going to be there for the flippers, and casual collectors will balk at the price.

    How many will you be in for once the HHL is lifted? If the answer is zero, I appreciate the engagement in the theoretical argument, but you are my Exhibit A for why I am right.

    Edit: I see the answer for now is as many as they will let you buy. Please update us if you actually follow through.

    I understand now that you are just availing yourself of a free option while you see how things shake out. The fact that they came back should be telling you that you'll be able to buy 1,000 of them 24 hours after release if you want to.

    But I appreciate that you are always open to all possibilities. Good luck with 10 of these at $124.50. I'm going to go out on a limb now and predict that you won't actually be buying any.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 3,653 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:
    The subscriptions for these are currently available. I took 10.

    Oh boy! The subscriptions once again became available! Who among us saw that coming? 😀

    Please be sure to keep us updated when you cancel, once it becomes clear to you there is not going to be a secondary market for them at $124.50, let alone a premium above that.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 3,653 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 23, 2026 5:38PM

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    The subscriptions for these are currently available. I took 10.

    Edited to add: never mind. Gone again

    Yup. Lots of folks like you hedging bets. I'm sticking with what I think, and don't believe the people grabbing free options today will actually be buyers this summer.

    Not to mention all the people not active on the coin boards, who have no idea their sets went from $33.25 to $124.50, and will be canceling their subscriptions when they get the e-mail. Or will be sending them back if they miss the e-mail and see the credit card charge when the bill comes.

  • Schmitz7Schmitz7 Posts: 770 ✭✭✭

    It should be ok to keep your subscription and then simply return if no aftermarket for these sets. In my opinion you can simply state you signed up for the subscription at $34 and did not anticipate an insane charge on your card when the sets were delivered at $124.50 each. I image some people’s credit cards will bounce due to fraud protection limits once these actually start being charged by the mint.

  • element159element159 Posts: 577 ✭✭✭

    I think the best thing about these overpriced 2026 mint sets, is that it will remove whatever special properties the omega cents had, which was a much more egregious artificial error IMO. Why are those special now? They aren't the last circulating cents, since none of them circulated. And they aren't the last minted cents anymore. So they aren't special anymore. Good riddance, as far as I am concerned. At least $125 is a lot more accessible to people than what the omegas went for.

    I am in the camp where mint sets should be reasonably made to demand, the government mint is there to serve the public after all, so let the public have all they want.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 38,952 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    The subscriptions for these are currently available. I took 10.

    Oh boy! The subscriptions once again became available! Who among us saw that coming? 😀

    Please be sure to keep us updated when you cancel, once it becomes clear to you there is not going to be a secondary market for them at $124.50, let alone a premium above that.

    2025 sets are still at $160

    The only reasons I would cancel is if either they mint more than 190k or the cents are available elsewhere. Otherwise, I'm looking to add to the subscriptions. I actually tried which is how I found out they weren't available.

    All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 38,952 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Schmitz7 said:
    It should be ok to keep your subscription and then simply return if no aftermarket for these sets. In my opinion you can simply state you signed up for the subscription at $34 and did not anticipate an insane charge on your card when the sets were delivered at $124.50 each. I image some people’s credit cards will bounce due to fraud protection limits once these actually start being charged by the mint.

    I would never do that. It would be dishonest.

    All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 38,952 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    The subscriptions for these are currently available. I took 10.

    Oh boy! The subscriptions once again became available! Who among us saw that coming? 😀

    Please be sure to keep us updated when you cancel, once it becomes clear to you there is not going to be a secondary market for them at $124.50, let alone a premium above that.

    I expected it. I also expect people are underestimating the value of the on the secondary market.

    All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.

  • mr1931Smr1931S Posts: 6,688 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 23, 2026 7:47PM

    Who was it that first said,"Nobody ever lost money underestimating the taste of the American public"?

    Not absolutely sure about this, but it might be the same fellow who first said, "There's a sucker born every minute."

    Research continues...

    "Great spirits have always been met with violent opposition by mediocre minds."
    Albert Einstein

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 3,653 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    The subscriptions for these are currently available. I took 10.

    Oh boy! The subscriptions once again became available! Who among us saw that coming? 😀

    Please be sure to keep us updated when you cancel, once it becomes clear to you there is not going to be a secondary market for them at $124.50, let alone a premium above that.

    2025 sets are still at $160

    The only reasons I would cancel is if either they mint more than 190k or the cents are available elsewhere. Otherwise, I'm looking to add to the subscriptions. I actually tried which is how I found out they weren't available.

    Fair enough. But 2026 isn't 2025. I have a feeling these are not going to sell out at these prices, and the value won't be there.

    You said you recently sold Marine privies at $150. Why, when Army privies, with the same mintage, are selling for $219? Same thing.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 38,952 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 23, 2026 9:29PM

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    The subscriptions for these are currently available. I took 10.

    Oh boy! The subscriptions once again became available! Who among us saw that coming? 😀

    Please be sure to keep us updated when you cancel, once it becomes clear to you there is not going to be a secondary market for them at $124.50, let alone a premium above that.

    2025 sets are still at $160

    The only reasons I would cancel is if either they mint more than 190k or the cents are available elsewhere. Otherwise, I'm looking to add to the subscriptions. I actually tried which is how I found out they weren't available.

    Fair enough. But 2026 isn't 2025. I have a feeling these are not going to sell out at these prices, and the value won't be there.

    You said you recently sold Marine privies at $150. Why, when Army privies, with the same mintage, are selling for $219? Same thing.

    I fail to see how that is at all the same thing - Navy and Marines are the same price, by the way.

    The 2026 year set is the only place to get the Lincoln cent (we think) and should, therefore, be more valuable than the 2025 set which is NOT the only place to get the Lincoln cent. I'm only asking it to have the same secondary value, not more, to make it worth the flip. You also have all of the ony-year type 2026 coins (including the dual-dated Lincoln).

    All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 3,653 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 23, 2026 10:58PM

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    The subscriptions for these are currently available. I took 10.

    Oh boy! The subscriptions once again became available! Who among us saw that coming? 😀

    Please be sure to keep us updated when you cancel, once it becomes clear to you there is not going to be a secondary market for them at $124.50, let alone a premium above that.

    2025 sets are still at $160

    The only reasons I would cancel is if either they mint more than 190k or the cents are available elsewhere. Otherwise, I'm looking to add to the subscriptions. I actually tried which is how I found out they weren't available.

    Fair enough. But 2026 isn't 2025. I have a feeling these are not going to sell out at these prices, and the value won't be there.

    You said you recently sold Marine privies at $150. Why, when Army privies, with the same mintage, are selling for $219? Same thing.

    I fail to see how that is at all the same thing - Navy and Marines are the same price, by the way.

    The 2026 year set is the only place to get the Lincoln cent (we think) and should, therefore, be more valuable than the 2025 set which is NOT the only place to get the Lincoln cent. I'm only asking it to have the same secondary value, not more, to make it worth the flip. You also have all of the ony-year type 2026 coins (including the dual-dated Lincoln).

    Okay. To me they are very similar. 2025 went into the market at $33.25 when people didn't know for sure that cents would be done. They bid the sets up, even though over 500 million cents are floating around. Irrational exuberance.

    For 2026, people now know these will be annual things. Starting at $124.50. TBD how many end users think they are worth jumping on at that price. Or higher.

    Army privies were the first. And still go for more than the navy and marines that came after. You sold your marines for $25 less than the Mint will be offering them if they ever reappear on the website.

    The same price, or maybe even less, than you think you'll be able to sell the 2026 sets for. Even though the marines have half the mintage, and $100 worth of silver in them.

    The 2026 sets will be hitting the market at nearly 4x the price of the 2025s. Connect the dots.

    I don't see the value. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time.

    But, on some level, you have to agree that 190K cents that don't otherwise circulate, or have any intrinsic value, are not actually worth around $50 each when acquiring them does not involve winning a scavenger hunt, but merely being willing to give the Mint $124.50 for two of them and $6 worth of pocket change.

    I know you're not buying them to keep because you think they will have value, but only because you cynically think suckers will take them off your hands at a profit before rationality returns to the market. I wish you luck, but I happen to think that if you actually follow through, you'll get burned. Not a ton of money, but still.

    And actually, if I'm right, you'll back away when you see how readily available they are, and how soft the presale prices are before launch. And, if I'm wrong, I guess I'll be sorry I didn't jump in when I had the chance. TBD.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 38,952 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    The subscriptions for these are currently available. I took 10.

    Oh boy! The subscriptions once again became available! Who among us saw that coming? 😀

    Please be sure to keep us updated when you cancel, once it becomes clear to you there is not going to be a secondary market for them at $124.50, let alone a premium above that.

    2025 sets are still at $160

    The only reasons I would cancel is if either they mint more than 190k or the cents are available elsewhere. Otherwise, I'm looking to add to the subscriptions. I actually tried which is how I found out they weren't available.

    Fair enough. But 2026 isn't 2025. I have a feeling these are not going to sell out at these prices, and the value won't be there.

    You said you recently sold Marine privies at $150. Why, when Army privies, with the same mintage, are selling for $219? Same thing.

    I fail to see how that is at all the same thing - Navy and Marines are the same price, by the way.

    The 2026 year set is the only place to get the Lincoln cent (we think) and should, therefore, be more valuable than the 2025 set which is NOT the only place to get the Lincoln cent. I'm only asking it to have the same secondary value, not more, to make it worth the flip. You also have all of the ony-year type 2026 coins (including the dual-dated Lincoln).

    Okay. To me they are very similar. 2025 went into the market at $33.25 when people didn't know for sure that cents would be done. They bid the sets up, even though over 500 million cents are floating around. Irrational exuberance.

    For 2026, people now know these will be annual things. Starting at $124.50. TBD how many end users think they are worth jumping on at that price. Or higher.

    Army privies were the first. And still go for more than the navy and marines that came after. You sold your marines for $25 less than the Mint will be offering them if they ever reappear on the website.

    The same price, or maybe even less, than you think you'll be able to sell the 2026 sets for. Even though the marines have half the mintage, and $100 worth of silver in them.

    The 2026 sets will be hitting the market at nearly 4x the price of the 2025s. Connect the dots.

    I don't see the value. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time.

    But, on some level, you have to agree that 190K cents that don't otherwise circulate, or have any intrinsic value, are not actually worth around $50 each when acquiring them does not involve winning a scavenger hunt, but merely being willing to give the Mint $124.50 for two of them and $6 worth of pocket change.

    I know you're not buying them to keep because you think they will have value, but only because you cynically think suckers will take them off your hands at a profit before rationality returns to the market. I wish you luck, but I happen to think that if you actually follow through, you'll get burned. Not a ton of money, but still.

    And actually, if I'm right, you'll back away when you see how readily available they are, and how soft the presale prices are before launch. And, if I'm wrong, I guess I'll be sorry I didn't jump in when I had the chance. TBD.

    I don't cynically think there are "suckers". I think there are enough people who want the cents to continue their albums. It's the same reason "suckers" (your word) bid up ASE's of less than 100,000 mintage. They don't really have to have them, they want them for their collecting goals.

    I think there is irrational exhuberance on the 2025 sets because there is nothing there that you couldn't get elsewhere. $50 for a Lincoln cent that is a one-year dual dated type to continue your album is not irrational. But, as you say, TBD.

    All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 3,653 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    The subscriptions for these are currently available. I took 10.

    Oh boy! The subscriptions once again became available! Who among us saw that coming? 😀

    Please be sure to keep us updated when you cancel, once it becomes clear to you there is not going to be a secondary market for them at $124.50, let alone a premium above that.

    2025 sets are still at $160

    The only reasons I would cancel is if either they mint more than 190k or the cents are available elsewhere. Otherwise, I'm looking to add to the subscriptions. I actually tried which is how I found out they weren't available.

    Fair enough. But 2026 isn't 2025. I have a feeling these are not going to sell out at these prices, and the value won't be there.

    You said you recently sold Marine privies at $150. Why, when Army privies, with the same mintage, are selling for $219? Same thing.

    I fail to see how that is at all the same thing - Navy and Marines are the same price, by the way.

    The 2026 year set is the only place to get the Lincoln cent (we think) and should, therefore, be more valuable than the 2025 set which is NOT the only place to get the Lincoln cent. I'm only asking it to have the same secondary value, not more, to make it worth the flip. You also have all of the ony-year type 2026 coins (including the dual-dated Lincoln).

    Okay. To me they are very similar. 2025 went into the market at $33.25 when people didn't know for sure that cents would be done. They bid the sets up, even though over 500 million cents are floating around. Irrational exuberance.

    For 2026, people now know these will be annual things. Starting at $124.50. TBD how many end users think they are worth jumping on at that price. Or higher.

    Army privies were the first. And still go for more than the navy and marines that came after. You sold your marines for $25 less than the Mint will be offering them if they ever reappear on the website.

    The same price, or maybe even less, than you think you'll be able to sell the 2026 sets for. Even though the marines have half the mintage, and $100 worth of silver in them.

    The 2026 sets will be hitting the market at nearly 4x the price of the 2025s. Connect the dots.

    I don't see the value. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time.

    But, on some level, you have to agree that 190K cents that don't otherwise circulate, or have any intrinsic value, are not actually worth around $50 each when acquiring them does not involve winning a scavenger hunt, but merely being willing to give the Mint $124.50 for two of them and $6 worth of pocket change.

    I know you're not buying them to keep because you think they will have value, but only because you cynically think suckers will take them off your hands at a profit before rationality returns to the market. I wish you luck, but I happen to think that if you actually follow through, you'll get burned. Not a ton of money, but still.

    And actually, if I'm right, you'll back away when you see how readily available they are, and how soft the presale prices are before launch. And, if I'm wrong, I guess I'll be sorry I didn't jump in when I had the chance. TBD.

    I don't cynically think there are "suckers". I think there are enough people who want the cents to continue their albums. It's the same reason "suckers" (your word) bid up ASE's of less than 100,000 mintage. They don't really have to have them, they want them for their collecting goals.

    I think there is irrational exhuberance on the 2025 sets because there is nothing there that you couldn't get elsewhere. $50 for a Lincoln cent that is a one-year dual dated type to continue your album is not irrational. But, as you say, TBD.

    You say tomato, I say sucker. Cents are done as of 2025. Anyone willing to pay $124.50 to anyone, but especially the Mint, to continue a set when the coin no longer circulates, at an arbitrarily insane price because the Mint arbitrarily chooses to bring mintages down from billions to 190K, when they don't circulate at all, is a sucker.

    Because the "set" of circulating issues is done. What they are buying now is overpriced, non-circulating junk. Not $50 worth of silver for $100, but $0 worth of zinc for $50.

    They don't circulate and don't have intrinsic value. The Mint is literally just taking advantage of suckers who think they need them to keep a set going. People who aren't suckers choose not to play, and end their sets when the government decides to end the production of cents for circulation.

    Because the cents people previously collected, that were available for $0.01 in pocket change, or for a premium above that as part of a set, or in a slab, is not the cent that is now made in "limited quantities" at extreme premiums solely to be sold to suckers.

    These are nothing more than poor man's Omega cents, which are also not needed to complete a set of circulating Lincoln cents. They are merely overpriced adjuncts to those sets.

    232 are actually rare, for those who can afford them, and they came with a very special gold version to boot. 190K that will never circulate is not rare. Just a vehicle to separate suckers from their hard earned money. I think you should consider thinking twice about helping facilitate the Mint's distribution of them into the market, whether or not it works out for you short term.

  • oldabeintxoldabeintx Posts: 2,687 ✭✭✭✭✭

    All my coins are slabbed. Were I a Lincoln series collector (any more) I would buy an after-market 2026 cent at a price point of $100 or so, graded 67 or better, perhaps more. As a type collector exclusively now, I don’t collect any 21st century type non-circulating coins, other than an occasional commemorative. I made this decision because of the proliferation of mint “products”, which represented a kind of tipping point for me. At some point I just can’t accept (probably) wasting money, as I see it, notwithstanding my passion for collecting, which includes last issue year and first issue year type.

  • privatecoinprivatecoin Posts: 3,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I fortunately got one of the clad 2025 proof sets early last year before theysold out. Found a 25 p and d lincoln in circulation. And bought the mint set without the lincolns for 24.99. I should just end and sell my lincoln album at 2025. I'll just buy a 2026 set cheap with the cents removed.

    Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc

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