TD Securities Bank gets their silver shorts handed to them (again) ?
dcarr
Posts: 9,954 ✭✭✭✭✭
And it only took about one week this time.
This article discusses how TDSB was short silver once before and was forced to close out that position at a loss.
Then in the recent run-up of silver prices, they shorted again. This time at $78, with a target price of $40 and a stop-loss at $92.
If that is true, they just got their "shorts" handed to them again because the silver price is now above $93.
They deserved it.
PS:
So much for the @GoldFinger1969 contention that bank regulators prevent banks from speculating in precious metals for their own account. While TDSB is based in Canada, they conduct commercial banking activities in the United States.
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Shorting is part of "the game" but I have never felt bad for shorts getting wrecked.
And, I think it is stupid of banks to do it.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
shorts aren't any worse than bulls
they obviously have money. i doubt they were forced any time. they most likely were stopped out
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I think it is far WORSE to be a naked short seller of something you don't have and don't produce, compared to some entity that locks in a price (long) for future delivery.
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always worse to be naked short
they have the deep pockets and risk management to handle it (we hope)
if they have the money to enter a short a second time, then the first time they didn't get forced out. it is mor likely they got stopped out.
You and the Kitco analyst should join forces and get a discount on a Reading Comprehension 101 course !!
TDS is not short. This was an ANALYST talking trading points for commodity traders. Since when does an analyst report for a brokerage division imply the parent (bank) is going short or long the underlying recommendation ?
You think if their analyst was bullish on MSFT the bank is buying MSFT stock with their capital reserves ?
Come on guys, read a balance sheet.
It'll never happen.....because the bank wasn't short, this was a trading recommendation from the research department !!
This seems so suspicious to me. It seems like something a YOLO redditor would do with his NFT money on Robinhood.
Any wild conspiracy theories on what went on here? This is a comically bad play considering what has been going on the last few months. Could this have been on purpose?
Did they just forget to check and see how low inventories are on APMEX and ebay?
Kitco? now there's a reliable newz source. lol THKS!
the name is a real person in such a job
Is this a correct statement or not ? :
"In a report published Wednesday [07 January 2026], Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, outlined the bank’s trade: a short position in March silver futures initiated at $78 per ounce, with a price target of $40 and a stop loss at $92. March silver futures were last trading at $77.94, down nearly 4% on the day."
I can not seem to find the original published report that is mentioned in several articles.
Also this:
"TD Securities' ill-fated short position was initiated [October 2025] when silver prices hovered around $48.37 an ounce, predicated on the expectation that a surge of supply would be unleashed as the metal approached the $50 mark. However, this projection proved inaccurate. Instead, the London silver markets experienced an acute "squeeze," characterized by "exploding higher" lease rates due to a severe scarcity of physical metal. This intense market pressure ultimately forced TDS to exit its position, crystallizing the $2.39 million loss. Despite this tactical miscalculation, TDS analysts, including Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali, have generally maintained a long-term bullish outlook for silver, anticipating renewed investment demand to further deplete already strained global stockpiles."
https://financialcontent.com/article/marketminute-2025-10-16-td-securities-stumbles-with-239-million-silver-short-loss-amidst-historic-rally
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Someone has a strong case of TDS
Loves me some shiny!
“Often wrong, but never in doubt.”
You do realize this was an analyst doing a write-up and not the bank's own investments in fixed-income investments, right ?
No bank announces what they are investing their capital surplus in. And no bank is allowed to speculate in commodities.
The statement is correct but you and these Gold Bugs are misreading it. The analyst is speaking for the RESEARCH DEPT, not the bank.
Do you think a bank would telegraph publicly it's trading positions ? Do YOU do that ???
TD Bank has a capital position of $120 billion. Do you think a $2.3 MM loss is material ?
Multiple posters seem to keep missing the facts. They just hear what they hope and want to hear. That's the "reality" of the current world we live in. Crazy Times! RGDS!
Yes, and once upon a time so was I. But my recommendations were just that -- for the clients and those interested in reading it. The banks I worked for or brokerage firms didn't take positions in my recommendations. If they held TRADING positions (usually in bonds/fixed-income), it had to be disclosed. Conflict-of-interest, etc.
This was a total misreading of what a brokerage firm -- stand alone or within a bank -- does on a daily basis.
I would seriously stop relying on people who get something this simple so wrong. Reminds me of the time I met some counterparts in the bank I was working for...and the idiots didn't know what the Fed Funds Futures were, despite being bond investors/traders.
COPPER is gutter !
@GoldFinger1969
You have stated many times your securities background but futures contracts are derivatives and not commodities. And Banks are the largest derivatives traders in the world and derivatives are off-balance sheet reporting. Banks cannot speculate in commodities but futures are not commodities, no matter what the underlying asset is.
And now this:
"(Ktico News) - Commodity analysts at TD Securities have once again underestimated momentum in the silver market, as the Canadian bank has been stopped out of its short silver trade for a second time since October.
In a note on Wednesday, one week after initiating its silver short trade, commodity analysts at TDS said they exited the position with a $606,000 loss. The bank said its stop-loss was triggered at $93.15 an ounce as March silver futures surged to a fresh record high of $93.70 an ounce overnight."
https://kitco.com/news/article/2026-01-15/td-securities-takes-second-hit-silver-short-losing-606k?utm_source=site_navigation&utm_medium=sidebar_link&utm_campaign=latest_news&utm_term=silver_ab_sidebar_news
I looked for the Wednesday "note", but have not been able to find it anywhere.
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If the loss was $606,000 as reported, and the loss per ounce was ($70.00 - $93.15 = $15.15), then that is equivalent to 40,000 ounces or (8) 5,000-oz contracts.
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This was not just a "recommendation". It appears to be an actual market position taken by TD Securities.
No, it was not a lot of money for such a bank, but that is not the point. They do speculate in futures and they did take a loss for a second time while shorting silver.
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Well, apparently they did (on both counts, more than once).
The dollar amount of the loss is not the point. You have frequently pushed the mantra that if the amount of money involved is relatively small, then look the other way. This is only what is showing on the surface.
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I would not have my money in BoA or Citi. They're PM shorts may affect customer deposits.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
I remember BofA opening up savings/checking accounts to undocumented visitors in around 2010.
If deported the person's could not get access to the account and many accounts defaulted back to BofA... this information was gained from a bank teller that no longer works for BofA.
I'm sure there is plenty of shady stuff going on at banks.
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Dormant bank accounts, with no customer activity for a time eventually become inactive, leading banks to send notices, potentially charge fees, and then transfer remaining funds to the state's treasury as unclaimed property . This is known as escheatment.
They're not allowed to take positions in speculative assets, period. You know the rules regarding Tier 1 and Leverage Ratios. Virtually all of those positions are notional values, offsetting and netting. Or they are for clients directly or to hedge risk in other assets (i.e., loans, mortgages, etc.).
But this websheet doesn't even concern that. A trading sheet is being misinterpreted as the bank's short position.
It's like those analysts who were bearish (and wrong) on TSLA...doesn't mean the bank/brokerage firm was shorting TSLA and lost tens of billions all the way up. Or NFLX.
Friend of mine invested a large bank's own capital pre-GFC (early-2000's)....he was VERY conservative. You lose money for the bank with their own $$$ and your bonus gets clipped. You lose even more ? You lose your job.
I've followed hundreds of banks; I know of 2 or 3 that blew up their balance sheets with bets gone wrong.
They're not short the PMs....they are custodians for clients or to offset other long positions to be net neutral.
Do you think they're shorting volatile, non-interest paying assets ? The regulators would crucify them. JPM lost 2% of their capital on that Whale Trade 15 years ago and they got called in before Congress. And that was investing in bonds, which is supposed to be their type of investment.
I'm trying to understand this thread which is fascinating.
How does one make or lose money by selling short?
When you “sell short” you are essentially selling someone else’s shares and promising to buy them back. Say you sell short at $100 and price drops to $80. You make the $20. Conversely if the price jumps to $120 you have to buy back at $120 for a $20 loss.
The major risk lies in the unlimited upside. A GameStop style squeeze happens when the price sky rockets and short sellers need to buy to close the position. Those purchases just increase the price.
@nags Thank you. I will assume then that "banks" do this with their assets on all sorts of different commodities for the purpose of increasing their financial positions.. It must be legal. Who or what agency watches this kind of activity?
Short selling is perfectly legal. In fact, I am about to go short on the gutter myself. There are many ETFs that you can simply buy rather than "shorting" a fund like SLV/AGQ. I am going ZSL which uses futures contracts and swaps to yield a 2x return in the gutters price movement. When it starts the big tank it's gonna be BOOMIN!™. RGDS!
True.
Also they are in the "too big to fail" category so the deposits would be protected even above FDIC.
Silver is ripping higher tonight. We may get $94 by morning. Gutter metal was up 1% tonight to $5.89
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
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I read these comments from you guys to learn about precious metals. I have a financial planner who I went to after receiving great recommendations and though we've done well I often feel like he's not telling me anything that I don't know . Then I try to make sense of each of your positions and realize that I have some serious studying I need to do. 🤓😖
Geopolitical, domestic concerns. Flight to safety.... we could be here for awhile....
i don't call it gutter, and futures are up 5.5% right now
The biggest question: do you buy or do you sell or do you hold? My position is miniscule compared to most of you I imagine. I understand that no one has a crystal ball but what do each of you think? As a retired engineer my familiarity in metals was an entirely different focus! 😂
Agree, gutter metal is copper so that is what is up 1%
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
it's tough. we hae 2 sides here: demand increasing focused and we don't have that kind of demand- it's a bubble
you'll have to read and decide.
then there are headline risks - like greenland: bad for the bubble crowd. i'd hate to be selling silver for a down move at friday's close. another headline risk is if the tariffs are ruled illegal. silver and gold going down on that, imo
here we are on a tds selling silver looking for $40 thread. if the reporting is right, then tds has lost money 2x betting against silver. was the person right but the timing off? maybe the guy is an idiot shorting a bubble on the way up? maybe the demand is there?
Which is it? Can banks take positions in speculative assest and if not how do they blow up their balance sheets with bets gone wrong?
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
easist way to short metal is with and inverse ETF
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
No...most of the commentators with websites are regurgitating nonsense designed to generate clicks.
Most bank "short positions" are on behalf of clients. No bank takes speculative long or short positions on risky assets like PMs because the regulators would crucify them.
It's also bad for the bank and the share price....investors want steady, predictable returns from things like fee-based assets under management (AUM). Investors are not giving a tech multiple for speculative gambling-type operations like a hedge fund.
This entire article/thread concerned a nonsensical extrapolation that a sell-side analysts positions are taken by the bank's own capital cushion. Even if true....a $2 million loss is nothing with a capital position of $120 billion.
But only on a very short-term basis as leveraged ETFs are very dangerous as time path divergences crop up.
time path divergenics (decay) mean little as long at the ETF keeps moving up.
Decay has not bothered me at all; it has been a small price for great profit:
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
The can NOT take positions in speculative assets.
They can still "blow up their balance sheet" if they screw up their ALM (Asset-Liability Management) positions or suffer a duration mismatch because of volatility with interest rates, hedged positions, deposit runoffs, etc.
These are now INFINITELY less common as computerized systems track assets and liabilities on a monthly or weekly basis.....50 years ago, it was done annually and 30 years ago you looked at them quarterly.
I ran these all the time for clients. The cost of running them came down as computing power increased in the 1990's.
Thousands of banks went under during the S&L Crisis of the 1980's.....150 banks went down during the 2008 GFC......3 banks went down in 2022 as the bond market suffered it's worst year on record.
That should tell you: the banking sector has improved in quantum leaps. Everybody thought SVB would be the canary in the coal mine. No canary...no coal mine.
Yes, they can (and do).
Multiple articles indicate that TD Securities did lose money on their own speculative (short) positions in silver.
And more than once.
At least one article mentions a specific amount for the loss:
$606,000 - equivalent to a $15.15 loss on (8) 5000-oz contracts.
The loss would not be reported in this manner if it was attributed to a client.
Once the bubble pops it will be a very short time needed to realize maximum gainz. I suspect a few weeks tops. RGDS!
Although the banks may not be taking positions in speculative assets, their affiliate broker/dealers/hedge funds do. Every major bank has a B/D and many have funded hedge funds. This is their business, profiting from trading. So need to distinguish between talking only about banks or the Holding Company. Now a B/D can go broke and the bank survive, but it will have a major impact on the overall financials and probably more importantly, reputation.
Let's assume that is true. They lost $606,000. Their capital position is $124 billion.
That is a ROUNDING ERROR and proves my point. If the bank is "speculating" to make money, they will be doing it with hundreds of millions or billions of dollars.
I've been compensated for trading snafus from their Error Account for sums larger than that.
The point is that this article was nonsense -- that a sell-side analysts position was taken by the bank in a large economic manner. Totally false and shows a basic lack of financial knowledge by the website authors.
Divisions may have different assets that they own/house, but again, without leverage they are manageable. Again, the notion that banks are "speculating" in things like PMs is nonsense because the regulators don't allow them to. That doesn't mean they don't have ANY exposure to them, but it's manageable. Like $600,000 against a capital position of $124 billion, which is a joke.
I was personally reimbursed out of an Error Account $200,000. That doesn't mean the brokerage firm was speculating on retail trading. They made a mistake....the "recorded lines" you hear about caught it.....they reimbursed me.
Cost of doing business.