What could be driving silver’s recent volatility?

johnnyb · January 8, 2026 2:43PM

Silver has been going gangbusters the last few months, but it has become very volatile recently with large daily price swings (even intraday swings). It could be $3-$5 on a $70-$80 prior day close.

Does anyone know what could be driving this volatility? And if it could suggest a higher probability of a big price swing (either up or down)?

coastaljerseyguy · January 8, 2026 2:50PM

Big institutional trading (banks, hedge funds, ETF's, sovereign gov'ts, etc.) and probably some manipulation thrown in.

derryb · January 8, 2026 2:51PM

fear of limited supply of physical metal is driving it up.
unlimted supply of paper futures with higher margin requirement being used to intentionally drive spot price down.

higher probability? Rock beats paper, but until there is a substantial failure to deliver/honor paper contracts the battle will press on. Expect a massive effort in the coming days to drive spot price down. We are already seeing it in declining (spot) price, but physical demand keeps bringing it back up.

Silver spot price has always been volitile, but it has increased greatly in the past thee months as the war between paper and physical has spread around the world.

MsMorrisine · January 8, 2026 5:34PM

yester-night and the night before at 8pm east coast time the asians pounded silver down

25 minutes to spectate. use kitco

MsMorrisine · January 8, 2026 5:35PM

where's those got to have it asian buyers?

if china's limited exports would drive up silver demand elsewhere, where is that demand?

derryb · January 8, 2026 7:30PM

@MsMorrisine said:

if china's limited exports would drive up silver demand elsewhere, where is that demand?

outside of China. India and the two western futures exchanges as well as highly inceased investor demand.

derryb · January 11, 2026 5:35AM

Martin Armstrong: Bulls market last much longer than bear markets. It takes people longer to accept them. Bear markets tend to be quickly recognized.

johnny9434 · January 11, 2026 5:38AM

Enjoy the ride for now

derryb · January 11, 2026 5:40AM

This isn't just a silver squeeze. It's a test of the entire paper-claim system. March is a major delivery month when industrial contracts (Samsung, solar, defense, auto) mature and start demanding silver that is likely not there.

blitzdude · January 11, 2026 5:44AM

@derryb said:
This isn't just a silver squeeze. It's a test of the entire paper-claim system. March is a major delivery month when industrial contracts (Samsung, solar, defense, auto) mature and start demanding silver that is not likely there.

Oh, it's there, the refiners have the gutter coming out of their ears. Blows my mind all the misinformation about how rare the gutter is. Billions and billions of ounces and we don't even barely mine for the stuff. The squeeze is strictly on paper and will correct itself very shortly. RGDS!

derryb · January 11, 2026 5:56AM

@blitzdude said:

@derryb said:
This isn't just a silver squeeze. It's a test of the entire paper-claim system. March is a major delivery month when industrial contracts (Samsung, solar, defense, auto) mature and start demanding silver that is not likely there.

Oh, it's there, the refiners have the gutter coming out of their ears. Blows my mind all the misinformation about how rare the gutter is. Billions and billions of ounces and we don't even barely mine for the stuff. The squeeze is strictly on paper and will correct itself very shortly. RGDS!

So you're saying that there's enough silver in the vaults to cover the contracts sold for it. LOL, you really don't understand the silver market. Stick with copper.

blitzdude · January 11, 2026 7:55AM

Stick with ̶c̶o̶p̶p̶e̶r̶. No thanks, I'll stick with the REAL precious metal, The Metal of Kings Au. RGDS!

softparade · January 11, 2026 9:20AM

China can refine their silver!
Hmmmm..

dcarr · January 11, 2026 2:44PM

@blitzdude said:
Stick with ̶c̶o̶p̶p̶e̶r̶. No thanks, I'll stick with the REAL precious metal, The Metal of Kings Au. RGDS!

.

That is what you have been consistently saying for years.
The problem is, you were doing it when the gold:silver ratio was about 100:1 and predicted that the ratio would go to 130:1 .

Instead, the ratio has gone down to about 50:1 .
Silver has out performed gold by a factor of 2x during this period.

PS:
When the ratio was 100:1, I predicted on this forum that the ratio might drop to 60:1 or even 50:1 .
So is now the time to swap silver for gold ? Maybe. But I have my little collection of both and I am not trading anything.

.

softparade · January 11, 2026 2:57PM

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:
Stick with ̶c̶o̶p̶p̶e̶r̶. No thanks, I'll stick with the REAL precious metal, The Metal of Kings Au. RGDS!

.

That is what you have been consistently saying for years.
The problem is, you were doing it when the gold:silver ratio was about 100:1 and predicted that the ratio would go to 130:1 .

Instead, the ratio has gone down to about 50:1 .
Silver has out performed gold by a factor of 2x during this period.

PS:
When the ratio was 100:1, I predicted on this forum that the ratio might drop to 60:1 or even 50:1 .
So is now the time to swap silver for gold ? Maybe. But I have my little collection of both and I am not trading anything.

.

I have no idea why anyone responds to him at this point. What evs.

logger7 · January 11, 2026 2:58PM

@johnnyb said:
Silver has been going gangbusters the last few months, but it has become very volatile recently with large daily price swings (even intraday swings). It could be $3-$5 on a $70-$80 prior day close.

Does anyone know what could be driving this volatility? And if it could suggest a higher probability of a big price swing (either up or down)?

I'd do some reading on Kitco commentaries, zero hedge too. Margin requirements have changed making it less desirable to short the metal. I think of Steven Cohen who owns a chunk of one of the grading companies and "Game Stop". They short a lot of things but don't want to be caught in a margin call.

Steven Cohen's investment group, Cohen Private Ventures, acquired Collectors Universe, the parent company of the leading sports card and memorabilia grading service, PSA (Professional Sports Authenticator). The investment group later also acquired the auction house Goldin.
Overview of Associated Companies
Collectors Universe: The parent company of PSA and other authentication and grading services for various collectibles, including Wata Games for video games.
PSA (Professional Sports Authenticator): The primary grading company within the Collectors Universe portfolio, known for authenticating and grading sports cards, tickets, and autographs.
Goldin: A high-end auction house also owned by Cohen's group (under the Collectors Holdings umbrella), which has since launched a new online marketplace that includes authentication and grading services

West22 · January 11, 2026 3:01PM

One of the best signs to get out of the market or start reducing exposure is when you see exuberance paired with stubborn/emotional market participants. Some of the people posting on this forum have the impulse control of children. My advice is don't get married to any asset. It's just a trade. Then you die and you can't take it with you. Best to take profits at certain points.

Also, if silver is such an essential, irreplaceable element of the economy that many of the bulls claim, then don't you think the US govt would manipulate the price down or go to great lengths to bring more supply to market as they did with the strategic oil reserve in '22 when oil spiked? In either scenario I don't see high prices persisting. That is why I am sticking with the miners. They were making money at $26/oz so think about how they're doing now. And even if prices pull back they have a huge cushion.

softparade · January 11, 2026 3:07PM

@West22 said:
One of the best signs to get out of the market or start reducing exposure is when you see exuberance paired with stubborn/emotional market participants. Some of the people posting on this forum have the impulse control of children. My advice is don't get married to any asset. It's just a trade. Then you die and you can't take it with you. Best to take profits at certain points.

Also, if silver is such an essential, irreplaceable element of the economy that many of the bulls claim, then don't you think the US govt would manipulate the price down or go to great lengths to bring more supply to market as they did with the strategic oil reserve in '22 when oil spiked? In either scenario I don't see high prices persisting. That is why I am sticking with the miners. They were making money at $26/oz so think about how they're doing now. And even if prices pull back they have a huge cushion.

I'll pass it on to my most favorite humans. NO THANKS on taking profits if its in the form of PAPER lolz

This isn't your fathers or grandfathers SILVER.

Also. ....

https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1119673/us-secures-silver-smelter-deal-to-process-latam-metals#latest

pmh1nic · January 11, 2026 3:37PM

Demand

Some of that demand is from speculators. Some of that demand is projections that industrial demand is going to increase dramatically if solid state battery vehicles take off (longer range, very fast charging times). There is also the raw supply issue given China is the second largest producer and now holding onto their silver. And as others have mention, the fears that those holding paper will want the physical metal.

I think the $70 ~ $80 price range is here to for the long run or going higher if any of those demand factors persist.

blitzdude · January 11, 2026 4:16PM

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:
Stick with ̶c̶o̶p̶p̶e̶r̶. No thanks, I'll stick with the REAL precious metal, The Metal of Kings Au. RGDS!

.

That is what you have been consistently saying for years.
The problem is, you were doing it when the gold:silver ratio was about 100:1 and predicted that the ratio would go to 130:1 .

Instead, the ratio has gone down to about 50:1 .
Silver has out performed gold by a factor of 2x during this period.

PS:
When the ratio was 100:1, I predicted on this forum that the ratio might drop to 60:1 or even 50:1 .
So is now the time to swap silver for gold ? Maybe. But I have my little collection of both and I am not trading anything.

.

I started doing it when the ratio was 30:1. Get a life and start worrying about yerself, THKS!

derryb · January 11, 2026 4:41PM

speculation is not the big driver of this market; demand by manufacturing that needs silver is the primary motivator and it won't change until supply does. Unless someone learns to turn sand into silver needed supply will drive this market indefinitly. And at some point the paper market charade will be exposed and silver price will actually go through the roof.

West22 · January 11, 2026 5:16PM

The silver price has already gone through the roof. Could it go higher, sure.

As for the demand question, I wonder how quick the execution of solar contracts is and what the lag is for panel orders translating to silver demand. Because I think that could be a large driver of current demand pushing prices up. All those solar contracts had to be finalized by Jan 1 '26 since Trump ended the majority of solar credits. I wonder if we see a bullwhip effect on the supply chain once all the craziness in the solar industry ends.

dcarr · January 11, 2026 7:02PM

@blitzdude said:

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:
Stick with ̶c̶o̶p̶p̶e̶r̶. No thanks, I'll stick with the REAL precious metal, The Metal of Kings Au. RGDS!

.

That is what you have been consistently saying for years.
The problem is, you were doing it when the gold:silver ratio was about 100:1 and predicted that the ratio would go to 130:1 .

Instead, the ratio has gone down to about 50:1 .
Silver has out performed gold by a factor of 2x during this period.

PS:
When the ratio was 100:1, I predicted on this forum that the ratio might drop to 60:1 or even 50:1 .
So is now the time to swap silver for gold ? Maybe. But I have my little collection of both and I am not trading anything.

.

I started doing it when the ratio was 30:1. Get a life and start worrying about yerself, THKS!

.

So the last time the gold:silver ratio was as low as 30:1 was early 1980.
I guess that would explain why you are always so bitter about it - because you bought at the absolute peak of the silver price in 1980 ?

.

softparade · January 11, 2026 7:34PM

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:
Stick with ̶c̶o̶p̶p̶e̶r̶. No thanks, I'll stick with the REAL precious metal, The Metal of Kings Au. RGDS!

.

That is what you have been consistently saying for years.
The problem is, you were doing it when the gold:silver ratio was about 100:1 and predicted that the ratio would go to 130:1 .

Instead, the ratio has gone down to about 50:1 .
Silver has out performed gold by a factor of 2x during this period.

PS:
When the ratio was 100:1, I predicted on this forum that the ratio might drop to 60:1 or even 50:1 .
So is now the time to swap silver for gold ? Maybe. But I have my little collection of both and I am not trading anything.

.

I started doing it when the ratio was 30:1. Get a life and start worrying about yerself, THKS!

.

So the last time the gold:silver ratio was as low as 30:1 was early 1980.
I guess that would explain why you are always so bitter about it - because you bought at the absolute peak of the silver price in 1980.

.

The generational passing of the torch isn't always glorious. That's LIFE.

blitzdude · January 14, 2026 5:09PM

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:
Stick with ̶c̶o̶p̶p̶e̶r̶. No thanks, I'll stick with the REAL precious metal, The Metal of Kings Au. RGDS!

.

That is what you have been consistently saying for years.
The problem is, you were doing it when the gold:silver ratio was about 100:1 and predicted that the ratio would go to 130:1 .

Instead, the ratio has gone down to about 50:1 .
Silver has out performed gold by a factor of 2x during this period.

PS:
When the ratio was 100:1, I predicted on this forum that the ratio might drop to 60:1 or even 50:1 .
So is now the time to swap silver for gold ? Maybe. But I have my little collection of both and I am not trading anything.

.

I started doing it when the ratio was 30:1. Get a life and start worrying about yerself, THKS!

.

So the last time the gold:silver ratio was as low as 30:1 was early 1980.
I guess that would explain why you are always so bitter about it - because you bought at the absolute peak of the silver price in 1980 ?

.

In 2011, the gold-silver ratio had a mean average of approximately 41.87, reaching a low of around 31.48 in April of that year.

Pay attention. THKS!

dcarr · January 14, 2026 5:21PM

@blitzdude said:

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:
Stick with ̶c̶o̶p̶p̶e̶r̶. No thanks, I'll stick with the REAL precious metal, The Metal of Kings Au. RGDS!

.

That is what you have been consistently saying for years.
The problem is, you were doing it when the gold:silver ratio was about 100:1 and predicted that the ratio would go to 130:1 .

Instead, the ratio has gone down to about 50:1 .
Silver has out performed gold by a factor of 2x during this period.

PS:
When the ratio was 100:1, I predicted on this forum that the ratio might drop to 60:1 or even 50:1 .
So is now the time to swap silver for gold ? Maybe. But I have my little collection of both and I am not trading anything.

.

I started doing it when the ratio was 30:1. Get a life and start worrying about yerself, THKS!

.

So the last time the gold:silver ratio was as low as 30:1 was early 1980.
I guess that would explain why you are always so bitter about it - because you bought at the absolute peak of the silver price in 1980 ?

.

In 2011, the gold-silver ratio had a mean average of approximately 41.87, reaching a low of around 31.48 in April of that year.

Pay attention. THKS!

.

Ok, so you bought at the absolute peak of the market in 2011 rather than 1980.
Same result. Same explanation. You are bitter about it because you bought at the $50 peak in 2011.

PS:
31.48:1 is a higher ratio than 30:1.

blitzdude · January 14, 2026 5:31PM

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:
Stick with ̶c̶o̶p̶p̶e̶r̶. No thanks, I'll stick with the REAL precious metal, The Metal of Kings Au. RGDS!

.

That is what you have been consistently saying for years.
The problem is, you were doing it when the gold:silver ratio was about 100:1 and predicted that the ratio would go to 130:1 .

Instead, the ratio has gone down to about 50:1 .
Silver has out performed gold by a factor of 2x during this period.

PS:
When the ratio was 100:1, I predicted on this forum that the ratio might drop to 60:1 or even 50:1 .
So is now the time to swap silver for gold ? Maybe. But I have my little collection of both and I am not trading anything.

.

I started doing it when the ratio was 30:1. Get a life and start worrying about yerself, THKS!

.

So the last time the gold:silver ratio was as low as 30:1 was early 1980.
I guess that would explain why you are always so bitter about it - because you bought at the absolute peak of the silver price in 1980 ?

.

In 2011, the gold-silver ratio had a mean average of approximately 41.87, reaching a low of around 31.48 in April of that year.

Pay attention. THKS!

.

Ok, so you bought at the absolute peak of the market in 2011 rather than 1980.
Same result. Same explanation. You are bitter about it because you bought at the $50 peak in 2011.

PS:
31.48:1 is a higher ratio than 30:1.

No, I said I have been saying since 2011/ 30:1 the GSR was going above 100:1 and it did. I am certainly not bitter. My world is absolutely BOOMIN!™

PS: I suppose the 115:1 we hit was less than the 130:1 I predicted but besides you, who cares? THKS!

What could be driving silver’s recent volatility?

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