What will soaring Silver do to Common coins?
cladking
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This should be interesting to watch. It's a great time to be young (sorry about the mess we left you)!
tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
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Of course '64-D quarters will be coming out of the woodwork for centuries but how many '46-S's or '40-D's?
Have a stash of silver that I'm planning to tap into soon but not sure what to do about the nearly complete circulated Mercury dime set I started as a kid and occasionally add to. Only short the 16D and the 42/1-D. I guess if silver keeps on rising most of it will go.
That's kindda a shame. I don't blame you in the least but how many coins like a nice XF '30-S will be left after a few years of melting? Uncs are common enough to satisfy current demand but because of its low mintage and poor survival in higher grades it's a pretty tough coin in nice attractive circulated grades. We may be left with only a couple hundred thousand pieces most of which are either Unc or nearly random circulated grades after only three or four years of melting. It could become as scarce as the '31-S or even the '21-D in absolute numbers since none of these will be melted except a few culls.
It people get a lot more wealthy going forward the extra leisure time could mean steadily growing demand for years.
I'm trying to figure out how to look at a few uncirculated silver coins (value) vs circulated...that are common.
Like silver Roosevelts or even a few common mercs.
Used to be an UNC premium...not so sure now though.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
A lot of BU rolls are common like the '46-S quarter. All of the common dates are susceptible because there isn't enough demand and they are common. If prices continue higher the '55 issues will be among the first to be melted. I'm sure it's happening already. Common will remain common because they simply won't all be sold as scrap. The real winners will be the ones that don't survive our stewardship.
Varieties especially will be hard hit because few will check what they ship. Current pops will remain stagnant as everything else is destroyed.
$50 was my sell point for the last roll of Unc 1960-D Washington Quarters and an Unc roll of Roosevelt Dimes... yeah, should have held on for a little bit longer but it's done and I used those proceeds to fund my last gold purchase... $3 Gold Princess PCGS AU53 CAC. I still have about a dozen or so Morgan Dollars laying around... one is '91-CC but the others are more generic. Other than that the only other 90% I've got are probably Seated Liberty issues... is THAT going to be grist for the melting pot?
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Can you elaborate on this part?
I don't fall in the young category anymore but the youngins I see around aren't all that keen on putting in the hours to keep things afloat or fixing a situation.
In those common date BU rolls, what is the chance of finding a really high grade winner?
Good question... I checked for the 60-D quarters and they'd have to grade at least 66 to cover grading fees. 67s are top pop... rather doubt that's going to happen...
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If they've been searched then probably not that good.
We've got a world economy humming along at about 3% efficiency and industry that builds only garbage for consumers. This might have been impossible to fix without AI and it's still going to take many years. Until people demand quality the road out of this is still rocky.
Well, I do believe cull Morgan dollars have gone up more in value in percentage terms than generic MS65 Morgans.
We've thereby created a world that rewards tenure and the status quo instead of youth and fresh ideas. In twenty years younger people will be calling the shots and I wager they'll go with what works instead of what greed and expediency dictate. In such an environment I can certainly see people caring how hard it is to find a nice collectible '30-S dime.
It makes stuff that is sellable in store too darn expensive. like silver proof sets from the 60's, 76 3pc 40% sets, common date dollars, etc. People just wont pay the melt value, way too high
Hopefully we'll get some good FUN reports that will help lead to answering the question.
I'm very curious as well.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
Because humans have changed...?
The "old folks" brought you the internet, personal computers, smartphones, AI, commercial solar energy, giant breakthroughs in human genetics and medicine. I'm sure the "young folks" will add to that. That is the nature of human evolution, not some generational superiority.
You have an awfully dark view of the "old folks" and what they've accomplished, at the same time that you seem to see great potential in AI, brought to you by "old folks". And, ironically, young people are highly skeptical of AI because they worry that it will replace them in the workforce, among other things. Interestingly, based on your views, those virtuous "young folks" think AI is the best example of "greed and expediency".
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
And if they haven't been searched, probably not that good.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Yeah ,they weren't that popular at less than half the current price.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I think a purge can benefit the hobby. It reduces the number of widgets for junk TPG holders used to take advantage of people like overgraded NNC, NTC, SEGS, and ACG slabs. Ditto for problem coins including colorized enamel coins and AT silver eagles. I hope they all find their way to the melting pot.
this is how stuff gets rare right, There is a reason 76cc 20c and 1927d 20$ are rare no? 1878CC Trade $s and really most Trade dollars. Be it Gov melting or private, attrition is the genesis of most scarcity in collectibles
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
This discussion about silver dovetails nicely with the discussion about the elimination of the penny. We arent talking about taking silver out of circulation anymore, though there is that you-tube guy who claims there are tons of 40% silver Kennedy halfs and 40% Silver Ikes sitting around in bank vaults (all you need to do is ask) -- give me a break!
Higher silver prices may make people more conscious of and therefore likely to collect silver coins. Its a shame that silver proof sets get a higher premium than the clad proof sets, which are just as beautiful in my opinion.
As for the cent, There are so many pennies sitting in closets and drawers that need to be turned in. (or not, maybe they are better left in the attic). Once they start to rust (zincs) they get cancer fast. So I suspect that pristine zinc coins that dont rust over time will have more value than the ones that do. As for the copper or bronze cent, the red will get the higher premium. Key dates and errors, rare die markings will always be in demand. Unfortunately there are so many scam artists selling falsely id "rare errors" that only certified errors have any real value.
Too bad Banks dont take any coins without a paper roll. Coinstar is the other option. But there is no incentive, things will change. Prices will all end in 5, and sooner or later the pennies will be melted down by a smelter somewhere . Thats illegal right now, unless you are the US gove.
Although they have no plans to melt them down, I hope the treasury starts melting down the pre-1982 copper (or bronze) pennies, makes sense since copper pennies are approximately 3.8 cents now and a 5cent nickel (which is actually 75% copper) is worth 6.9cents. They could start by paying 2 cents for each copper penny, then melt them down for a profit.
They will get melted into buliion.
In terms of value? Other than the silver not much.
.....Oh there are only 100,000 BU 55-D quarters remaining I need to get one.....
Unfortunately private individuals are prohibited from melting base coinage for scrap metal although I doubt the provision will be enforced.
Paying up for silver just to own some (or stack some) is one thing. Paying "too much" or significantly more than a week ago, will cause some demand destruction.
Dealers should introduce those customers to non-silver proof collecting. The rarer proofs like the National Parks that were dont with cupro-nickel are very cheap compared to the silver proof sets.
I'm pretty sure people know about the clad sets but there is zero demand for them. A lot of people are buying them at 40% back of greysheet because there is virtually no wholesale or retail market right now. They aren't worth melting, but you will see more and more clad proofs in circulation as it can be hard to get face value for a lot of those sets.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I havent seen one proof coin in my pocket change. I've heard of people actually just taking them out of the OGP to cash them it, which makes no sense to me. They always have some premium just for being different, even if they never get circulated.
Another off the topic interest of mine is what ever happened to the golden dollar? The Sacagaweas we all know and loved, as well as the billions of SBA's Where did they all go to? I heard they are being used in places like Panama and Ecqudor where they hold their value better than the local currency. And now Venezela might be a place to dump those government hoards? Who knows.
Yet another side discussion, what about generational change (as opposed to pocket change). Do young people have interest in collecting for the sake of collecting? I think they do, in a vaguely nostelgic way. Vynl records for example. My friends adult daughter inherited my old college album collection (you know those big black round things you put on device that spins them around?). Of all the scratched up records, she likes one of the least played ones: Spiro-Gyra's . "Morning Dance" album. She likes to play it when she gets out of bed to start her day! She says it makes her think of when her mom and dad were young enough to dance to it.
A bigger challenge is getting people to actually use cash to buy things these days. Even at farmers markets, where all transactions are done in cash, there are few people giving change in anything below the quarter. Its considered insulting to leave coins on the counter in bars any more. My coffee place has a jar and I throw them in there, after staring at them for 5 minutes. (I always wait until the barrista is there so they can hear the clink!).
I have a hope that someday we will hear about coin collecting being cool again.
If silver continues with its current upside trajectory, TPG’ers will be losing out on revenues from grading uncirculated silver from the 50’s, 60’s, and silver eagles as their premiums will diminish. I was at a shop this weekend and they were selling slabbed MS69 and 70 silver eagle first issues, etc for the price of regular eagles. Yet another reason as to not bother to grade modern common stuff.
Perhaps there will be more people with more time on their hands.
Hobbies could become much more fashionable than even during covid.
One of our members came across some nicely toned somewhat better date 1897-o, 1897-s silver dollars. It was interesting to see that in F-15 or VF they are just valued as approximately melt now. His 1896-s was more valuable than melt.
I was nearing the end of my circulated Barber half set. Nice lower end circulated coins can be tough to find, and I was planning on taking my time and waiting for just the right coins. Decided against it and got the last few in a hurry. not exactly how I wanted to do it, but it's done.
Their value will increase along with BV. Do not crack out nice investment grade slabbed silver coins.
I was looking at PCGS Price Guide Values for Common Date 90% Quarters. For Basal State coins (P01/Fr2):
Washington- $13/13
SLQ- $14/15
Barber- $18/20
Seated Lib- $35-50... depending on date/mm
So, there is still something of a numismatic premium... but mostly those coins from the 19th Century. Perhaps Seated material will prevail
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How much longer might this bullion run-up last?
The answer may be what’s driving this bullion market and how long will those factors continue.
It could be an off and on bull market run up for sometime. I don’t believe it’s over. Monitor spot and CDN CPG to evaluate if you need to increase prices to get optimal retail performance. What you don’t want is to go to sleep raising prices then missing out on max profit. As MV of nice graded bullion coins rise I believe low supply may drive up CPG further then even more profit (double bubble if you were loaded up w say slabbed BV based coins). We are in a bull market now on bullion material. Keep track of where BV (orCPG) is and raise prices accordingly to get all the money. Otherwise they will pick u off.
Some (loaded with recent bull market profit money) are targeting nice Mod commem $ and (and gold issues) for collecting / investment (coin club talk). Don’t forget the CACG CPG bump up if CACG.
One of multiple recent threads with a similar theme.
Nothing except by accident is likely to be melted from US coinage that is likely to be noticeable in any time frame relevant to those reading this thread. It's too common, with too low of a collector preference which isn't a coincidence, or both.
I can see that this might happen with non-US coinage, though less likely than previously (1980 or 2011) because the collectible premiums on higher quality coinage are higher or much higher.
Good luck getting that for Barbers
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Nonsense. It is apparent that so many 40% BU rolls were melted in 1980 to make the coins much harder to acquire. That melt lasted less than a year and this one is far more massive and long lasting already. As I've said many times what gets destroyed isn't random. What is available gets melted. That time there were lots of SMS , '68, and '69 mint sets that were destroyed by melting but this time there will be very few. A large majority of circulated and uncirculated 20th century coins will be melted if this goes on (as it probably will). People aren't going to be tossing BU rolls of '40-D quarters in the pot but anything under Fine is likely to be and this is most of the surviving mintage. We could significant changes in the relative availability of "common" coins.
Your estimation of what is "common" is irrelevant and even were you right many WILL become much less common. Most '16-S dimes are in abysmal condition so will be destroyed while the '16-D will not. This hardly means the S will become the key date but when most of the VG and lower issues are gone it will be a much tougher coin.
"Common" exists only relative demand. "Rare" doesn't mean anything unless the demand is higher. If demand is higher than supply it doesn't matter if it's common or not.
Depending on how high silver goes up to 90% of US silver coins might be melted. This will have profound effects in the future and not one date or series will be more common in ten years. There will probably still be about 24 1804 dollars but most '16-S dimes will be gone. 1894-S dimes are safe but 1902-S will be decimated.
People will still be collecting these coins and some dates considered common today will be elusive in ten years because what gets melted tends to be common and tends to be whatever the sellers have, like worn out '02-S and '16-S dimes.
If collectors don't act by doing what collectors do (collecting) we will leave a mishmash of coins for the future which will be lots of rare coins and not so many of the coins hiding among the common ones.
I just checked coininflation and the 40% silver IKEs have $25 worth of silver. It will probably be awhile before I buy any 32 coin IKE sets. With $3-5 swings on a daily basis, it seems all of the cheap stuff I used to buy is moving quite a bit.
The increase in their bullion portion will drive up their MV,
Players will be increasing prices. In tandem with CDN CPG or some other method. Bull mkt rule number 1: You don’t want to leave money on the table.
They'll be much less common. That will be good for those can hold out and not cash in. I have a complete silver circulated Merc set, Roosevelt set and Washington quarter set that I'm not going to liquidate. Just too cool to hold onto as is. However, any dups at these current prices will be sold.
USAF (Ret.) 1985 - 2005. E-4B Aircraft Maint. Crew Chief and Contracting Officer.
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That assumes 2 things that might not be true: 1. Silver holds at these numbers (or increases) and 2. A numismatic premium returns.
While either or both could be true, they may not be. If silver falls back to $50, the people holding out may never see prices like these again in their lifetimes.
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The silver must be melted to be turned into the technology that the human race needs to survive. We can't return to the caves and savannahs so must push ahead. What other than higher prices will cause coin collectors to give up their treasure?
It has always been a fait accompli as surely as every wolf contains a dog.
I think the vast majority of common date 20th Century coinage has the danger of getting destroyed. I don't think the coinage of the 19th century shares this same chance of fate. There is only one exception I can think of. Even at 40 or 50 dollars an ounce I don't think what I am saying applies; but a sustained value of say $60 dollars an ounce might change the collectible base of one type of coins. Barbers.
The simple truth is that more than 95% of all Barber coins fall into the AG/G grade range. A few dates have premiums that will always protect them. However, I fear any common date, low grade Barber coin , could end up being destroyed in the name of profit and perceived need.
I have no idea how someone could ever keep track of the attrition rate but it is possible that some day the generous supply of low grade Barber material might become a thing of the past. james
Yes, i know you ASSUME that silver prices continue to rise.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I seriously doubt it. I saw the barbers you could buy for bulk in the '80's and earlier. Dimes had lots F and even XF's. AU's were tougher unless you didn't mind problems. There weren't many better dates but when you found one it might be a VG/ F. Most of what I see any more is in atrocious condition. But the better ones sure weren't picked off to be melted.
When you do see the low end stuff there's a good chance it will soon be at a refinery.
Probably less than 50% of barbers can be sold as a G or better. A lot of low grade stuff is already gone.
Bowers has a slightly different view. There are a couple hundred Barber types and if you throw out the better dates almost every coin in his Redbook series has this post script. "95% or better of all surviving coins are in Good or less." James
Most of what the refineries were getting is low end but there are still lots of nice G's and VG's. Now they'll be getting all kinds of barbers including a little of the stuff from earlier times
I could be projecting ahead a little bit but I've seen a lot of barbers going to refineries for a couple years now. There's always more degradation and culling from the low end. I've got to believe there are 50,000,000 dimes in F or better or that are better dates in good or better. Even more than this have been melted or destroyed. It just doesn't leave a lot of coins to be low grade junk.
Understandable but I just want to hold on to my Mercury's because I like that coin and they are harder to find, probably with silver prices, harder in the future... If silver keeps going up, it's my Franklyn set that I may depart with...
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It would be more true to say I assume I know all relevant facts related to future supply and demand. All things occur in unseen ways but cycles play out as well.
Only time can tell.