when to sell silver bars

@MsMorrisine said:
open every silver thread and read

in the end, you are the one deciding

I'm doing so right now...
I have a purchase that I'm on the fence over.
Considering selling 100 ounces silver, I figured I could make that back with a little effort with the new tools.

@jmski52 said:
Question I always ask myself: "Where would be a better place to put the money, and why?"

I sold 100oz today. Put money in bank account. Ill buy that 100oz back in due time.

SpaceX could be an option but will require some research.

I sold some platinum and gold the other day to top off the amount needed for 2025 cap gains tax and to prep for next year's construction project.

I'm leaving enough money in the bank exposed to the banking system as a strong motivation to find the next best thing before the banking system problems become visible. Hopefully the Great Taking won't happen soon - but it could.

Not my first rodeo, pardner.

@dcarr said:
If I had any kind of debt, and metal to sell, I would sell now and pay off said debt.
But I don't have either

I have the same dilemma however certainly wouldn't want to be the bag-holder once this bubble pops. RGDS!

DCA is somewhere around $20, still wouldn't want to be the bag-holder when the gutter bubble pops. RGDS!

Edit: $21.78 to be exact but that is somewhat skewed as I include some things like slabbed MS70s, Morgans, WTC recovery ASEs etc. THKS!

@DisneyFan said:
DCA?

Dollar Cost Average, otherwise known as a weighted purchase price

@fleaseyelash said:
Well,when do we start selling,is it a gamble to sell now or wait for $100.00 per ounce.

Any day , now. It is a gamble getting out of bed. Why put off today what could have been done yesterday ?
Then again, I recommend adding to the stack. I buy and sell everyday except today. Bars, rounds, .925 and .900. Sell a little, buy a lot. Buy a little ….and add to your lot, when possible. As it were, you’re playing in a money pit.

@jmski52 said:
So are you saying a deflationary collapse is in the cards?

I'm saying that stocks, bonds and real estate are in a much more precarious position than precious metals.

A deflationary collapse is possible if the derivatives complex blows up - which it might, any day now.

OTOH, a runaway hyperinflationary spiral is also possible when interest on the various federal, state, municipal debt (and unfunded liabilities) dictates even more massive money creation.

Take your pick. I don't know which will happen first. Physical gold and silver have no counterparty risk.

Stocks, bonds and real estate all have counterparty risk in a fiat world where re-hypothecation is now standard practice and nobody knows who owns what.

The only thing that can crash stocks, bonds and real estate under DJT would be the US Dollar collapsing. There is simply zero chance he will let that happen without first slashing rates to zero and then printing obscene amounts of money. Trump had a career in real estate. He is hell bent to get rates down in order to unlock new liquidity that drives stocks/bonds/RE higher and puts the economy back on a sugar high before the next election.

IMO, and I think we agree, what is going on with PMs over the last 1.5 years is they have simply been accurately repriced in USD. Most of the price action is simply the denominator changing.

@West22 said:

@jmski52 said:
So are you saying a deflationary collapse is in the cards?

I'm saying that stocks, bonds and real estate are in a much more precarious position than precious metals.

A deflationary collapse is possible if the derivatives complex blows up - which it might, any day now.

OTOH, a runaway hyperinflationary spiral is also possible when interest on the various federal, state, municipal debt (and unfunded liabilities) dictates even more massive money creation.

Take your pick. I don't know which will happen first. Physical gold and silver have no counterparty risk.

Stocks, bonds and real estate all have counterparty risk in a fiat world where re-hypothecation is now standard practice and nobody knows who owns what.

The only thing that can crash stocks, bonds and real estate under DJT would be the US Dollar collapsing. There is simply zero chance he will let that happen without first slashing rates to zero and then printing obscene amounts of money.

And all of that would collapse the dollar. So yes, DTJ, is will be the thing. Thats why PMs are doing what they are doing.

@RedneckHB said:

@West22 said:

The only thing that can crash stocks, bonds and real estate under DJT would be the US Dollar collapsing. There is simply zero chance he will let that happen without first slashing rates to zero and then printing obscene amounts of money.

And all of that would collapse the dollar. So yes, DTJ, is will be the thing. Thats why PMs are doing what they are doing.

I should have laid off the hyperbole with the talk of slashing rates and printing obscene amounts. That would only be in the case of a Covid type emergency. Today's high rates give them lots of latitude to cut in a controlled way, and the economy is doing fine in the meantime. I believe the PM market is performing strongly as a debasement trade obviously, but there are other factors at play and it doesn't mean a collapse of the dollar is imminent.
Though silver is looking short term very frothy, I could see broader PM strength continuing in a secular bull market for some time. This move is long overdue and there are also nice setups with copper and uranium heading into 2026. All of this can keep going with the dollar staying flat, and inflation and bond markets stable. My main concern, and where I would be looking to take some off the table (esp with PM miners as it would hurt their operating margins) would be oil heading back to $100.

@jmski52 said:
The only thing that can crash stocks, bonds and real estate under DJT would be the US Dollar collapsing

Have you looked at the debt clock lately? And interest on the debt? And have you considered the unfunded liabilities? Just wondering.

There is simply zero chance he will let that happen without first slashing rates to zero and then printing obscene amounts of money.

This is the plan. And that's what is going to crash the bond market, taking stocks along with it. High probability.

I did address the hyperbole in a subsequent post - those are edge cases I was talking about. Rather than US Dollar or bond market collapsing, I anticipate a long term debasement/inflating away as much of the debt they can. Do they have a plan for the unfunded liabilities/SS/Medicare/veteran's benefits? AI doom scenarios? Unlikely and I assume they will kick the can like most politicians. This is why I stack PMs, BTC and other alternative investments.

Also, you are saying "high probability" they collapse both the bond and stock market? Are you making investment decisions around this so called high probability? Odds are stacked against you.

Do they have a plan for the unfunded liabilities/SS/Medicare/veteran's benefits?

I kinda doubt it. They may think that a 50-year convertible gold bond will get attention, but I don't. I think that they plan to use Tether's gold and Tether's earnings around stablecoin to soak up the additional debt issuance, but I think it's too late for that and supply will overwhelm demand.

@jmski52 said:
Do they have a plan for the unfunded liabilities/SS/Medicare/veteran's benefits?

I kinda doubt it. They may think that a 50-year convertible gold bond will get attention, but I don't. I think that they plan to use Tether's gold and Tether's earnings around stablecoin to soak up the additional debt issuance, but I think it's too late for that and supply will overwhelm demand.

They will raise taxes. You wont like it, but you'll dislike losing your SS/Medicare/Veterans benefits even more.

@West22 said:

@RedneckHB said:

Today's high rates

Rates aint high today.

Relative to the 80's, no, but Fed funds rate at 3.75% is higher today than they were in 15 of the last 18 years.

Anyone under they age of 40 may think rates are high, but they are at or below long term historical averages. Rates are not high today.

@West22 said:

@RedneckHB said:

Today's high rates

Rates aint high today.

Relative to the 80's, no, but Fed funds rate at 3.75% is higher today than they were in 15 of the last 18 years.

But if you remove the financial collapse of 2008 and its next 5 years of 0 interest until things got back to semi-normal and the Covid years of reduced rates, the last 18 years are not a good barometer to measure rates.

When I graduated from college, home mortgages were 18%. When I bought my firs home 7 years later, I started with 10.25%, I have probably refined 5 times to get down to 3.25% on a 15 year that is paid off in June 2027. Happy days.

@coastaljerseyguy said:
When I graduated from college, home mortgages were 18%. When I bought my firs home 7 years later, I started with 10.25%, I have probably refined 5 times to get down to 3.25% on a 15 year that is paid off in June 2027. Happy days.

Hell yeah. Good move for you long term. Although I have a super low rate as well, if/when the short term interest rates move below my mortgage rate, I will move some out of short term bills/notes and get some mortgage principal paid down.

Until then, good place for safety net funds.