Some Numbers from the Omega Penny Auction
leaveapenny
Posts: 6 ✭
Just thought I'd share some numbers from the Omega Penny auction.
Maybe it'll be useful for similar auctions in the future.
Here are the averages and medians for each grade combo (ignoring the gold grades, which were all 69, except for six).
Here are the sale prices for each lot (excluding lot 232). To make the chart more legible, I also grouped some of the combinations, as they sold for similar prices (table above).
Here is a better view of the lower sales.
There were 150 unique buyers. (Assuming no one used multiple paddle numbers.)
The top three buyers only account for 13.4% of lots won.
The buyer who bought the final lot only bought two others. One was a 69/66/66; and one was a 69/64/67. (Presumably to make sure he has one of each of the highest grades.)
Incase you didn't see it elsewhere, this is the grade distribution for the coins:
CAC Sticker Distribution:
Important note:
- The "Known" numbers are for sets that had at least one coin sticker. It's possible more sets were checked, but none of their coins stickered. We won't ever know if those sets were checked.
Interesting observations:
- All of the CAC stickers are green; none are gold. This was expected with modern grading/coins, but I was still hoping for at least one gold CAC sticker.
- Of the sets with at least one sticker, 97% of them had their Gold penny sticker. This may mean that most the Golds are stickering and around 121 sets have been checked so far.
- Set 1 (200k) only had its Gold sticker.
- Set 232 (800k) only had its Gold and Denver sticker.
- All 3 sets with a 67 Denver were checked, including set 212 (180k). None of the 67 Denvers stickered.
- At least 9 of the 15 sets with a 66 Philadelphia were checked. None of their 66 Philadelphias stickered.
- The best fully-stickered sets so far are grades 69/65/66. There are four of them.
- 10 coins have been regraded with CAC so far (no new 67/68 regular omega pennies). It is a bit odd that 3 out of the 4 Gold pennies that were regraded with CAC are now grade 70, because none of the 114 Gold pennies that stickered got a gold sticker.
- If you want to see the pop count by grade (click sort by date twice): https://www.cacgrading.com/pop-price/stickered/23
Comments
Great info. I was trying to track paddle numbers along the way to see if several dealers were doing all the buying. Thanks for putting this together.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
did you do an analysis for the realized value based for each coin based on grade?
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
Great first post! Thank you!
Think how tempted one who is working at the mint directly involved with producing the last pennies might be to stamp a few bronze 2025-Ds for himself and friends.
"I believe in intuitions and inspirations. I sometimes feel that I am right. I do not know that I am."
Albert Einstein (14 March 1879--18 April 1955)
My paddle number is just below 300000, and I’ve had an account with them for many years, so I wouldn’t read too much into the bulk of winners being new coin collectors / new users.
I continue to be amazed at the relatively poor quality overall, particularly Philadelphia. One takeaway of interest may be the scarcity of 67 or better cents present in a presumably normal production run. Of course, when billions are produced….
I did not include this because there are just too many unknowns:
1. It's a bit tricky choosing which lots need to be removed from the data. Definitely the first three and the last two, but some of the others were also significantly above the median.
2. It's safe to assume that the Gold MS69 cents all have a similar value. But what is that? 33% of the sale price? 10%? 60%? Which sale price? The lowest? I assume most people purchased a set for the circulation pennies, but there may be a lot of people interested in the Gold cents as well. Until we have a few sale prices for a stand-alone Gold cent, I couldn't even guess as to what the value would be. Once we have this though, it'll be really easy to determine the rest.
3. Removing a coin from a set may lower its value. (It may also increase it if there are very few coins for sale and multiple buyers want only a single coin. The lower the price, the more people that will be interested.)
@leaveapenny At Greysheet, we have started the MS69 gold cents at bid of $40,000. John Albanese is already bidding $40k sight-unseen for these in CAC holders (assuming they cross or sticker). We've also broken down values for the P/D for the non-gold cents in different grades. You'll need a sub to see the values but you can see the P-mint page here.
I am very interested in feedback from this thread, and the marketplace in general. I really love your analysis including the number of unique buyers. It have to think that most of the 117 buyers of a single set will not be selling anytime soon. If we add other groups we can theorize that 125-150 of the sets will not come on the market in the near term. Or am I wrong??
Thanks again!
John
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
Heh...yah, that's why I didn't initially include this breakdown. I couldn't come up with a value for a 69 Gold penny. I put more of a weight on the circulation pennies, as that is what I assumed a majority of people were purchasing for (but in reality I have no idea). At 40k, that means that a solo MS63 circulation coin would only sell for around 10-15k. That, or the resale value is already a lot higher on these.
I would agree that over 125 of these probably aren't coming back on the market soon, especially looking at who bought which lots. Some of the buyers of multiple lots made sure to get one of each grade, versus one for their personal collection and one for resale.
However, if you look at the 3 for sale on ebay, all three of those buyers only bought a single lot. These may just be "Not for sale but can be bought" pricing though.
I’m kinda surprised to see these offered by JMbullion at $74,500. I didn’t think they dabbled in this kinda stuff
https://www.jmbullion.com/2025-3-coin-omega-privy-pennies-lot-176/?utm_source=Klaviyo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NEW ARRIVALS Segment: 2025 3-Coin Omega-Privy Pennies Lots&_kx=zFa0LMHRrRzmjVLmVojUR_dvU1UW0mRIggQYh8WZHKI.WTXR3U
https://www.jmbullion.com/2025-3-coin-omega-privy-penny-set-lot-184/?utm_source=Klaviyo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NEW ARRIVALS Segment: 2025 3-Coin Omega-Privy Pennies Lots&_kx=zFa0LMHRrRzmjVLmVojUR_dvU1UW0mRIggQYh8WZHKI.WTXR3U
They dabbled the most in this stuff.
(Assuming they haven't already bought these second-hand, or are selling on behalf of another buyer.)
Bit interesting that they aren't sending (at least these two sets) to CAC.
When all of the sets are sold at the same auction, it's really easy to find out who bought what and how much markup they are adding on each. I think they are asking a very fair price, considering what these were selling for at the end.
are modern Lincolns eligible for CAC ?
@JohnF
John are you pricing the coins individually plus as a matching set? Would think the set is worth more then individually. Also matched # would be worth more then mismatched unless someone upped the grade on 1 of the zinc's to match the set grades. MHO.
not pricing the coins as mis-matched sets. it's really impossible and i think the auction records are the price of record for the sets.
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
So from the auction... however much did these lot sell hammer at?
OMG ... My Mother was Right about Everything!
I wake up with a Good Attitude Every Day. Then … Idiots Happen!
"So from the auction... however much did these lot sell hammer at?"
https://archive.stacksbowers.com/?q=4f33fc01-219f-411c-b40a-46f1862e1808
Edit: $65k paid for each set.
The ones that JA approves are going to go for moon money on the secondary market. It will be fun to watch.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
The initial CACG / CAC Stickering stage has been set for the Omega's. No stickers yet.
Note the initial values established for the P-zincs vs. the D-zincs based on known graded populations.
.
The first shipment to CAC just went out today. Probably 2-3 weeks before any stickers.
Thanks for tracking this auction, much appreciated.
Updated the original post with CAC numbers,