@blitzdude said:
Paper price is $56 but dealers are only offering $45-50 in the physical world. Stuff like 90% and less the refiners don't even want it. RGDS!
Actually, spot is a physical price. As opposed to futures, which are paper.
According to my interweb, right now, as I post this on Sunday morning, closing futures on Friday were $57.03. Spot, according to Apmex, right now, is $55.33 Bid, $56.67 Ask.
Anyone offering $45-50 right now is just charging a ~10% commission to stand in the middle of a highly liquid transaction. It is not a reflection of pricing in the physical world.
The buyers at $45-50 can easily get a risk free flip at $55.33. Period. Just like we do at 7:30 a.m., chasing Mint sell outs that are going for 2x or more on eBay.
It's not quite that simple. The form of the silver matters. If they aren't comex bars, there is processing required.
Spot is not Comex bars. That's futures.
Spot is generic silver. And US Government silver is better than generic silver.
Dealers are just screwing people. Because spot is spot. And there is a VERY liquid market at spot.
Argue all you want. I'm not wrong.
Apmex publishes a bid/ask spread. The difference represents a liquid market dealer markup. Anything beyond that is called "excess profits" where I come from.
There is no "processing" involved in buying and selling ASEs. Just screwing the public. In and out, if the bid is below the widely available published bid. The ask is a different story, since ASEs trade at a premium to spot. As a result, the dealer bid should also be above the bid, because they cannot buy fresh ASEs from the Mint at spot.
Again, it's not that simple. Spot price is comex bars and the like because it is set by institutional buyers. If you walk into a BM with a 1 oz silver bat, what is that store going to do with it?
There aren't enough retail customers coming in to buy that 1 oz bar. So you have to aggregate. If you sell out to a wholesaler, it has to be shipped and it will be melted. That's not free.
My friend was buying at $52 Friday. He scrapped it at $54. That is hardly dealers ripping people off. And he only got that price because he has volume and is near a wholesaler.
There is not a line of buyers that matches the line of sellers. As is often the case, you are way off base. I'm rather surprised you don't know more about the business [See @jdimmick post above]
Apmex is not a small dealer. You ARE wrong.
I know more about this than you think. If your friend made a $2 spread when the published bid/ask spread was $1.33, he made $0.67 too much. Which is 50%, for those of you keeping score at home.
The person talking about $1,000 loaves of bread earlier today is not really in a position to lecture people about being way off base.
Lmao. I said that gold at $100,000 probably means bread is $1000. I stand by that.
Where you are ridiculously (and stubbornly) wrong is that you are not recognizing that there is no way to realize that $1.33 spread unless you have equal volumes of buyers and sellers lined up.
Honestly, let's say silver is $50 there a $1 bid/ask spread. How do you expect a coin sure to make any money if they buy it at $49 and can't sell it for 2 days when the price is unknown?
Most small BMs - NOT APMEX - aggregate and end up wholesaling significant amounts. That means they are SELLING at the bid price not the ask price. Apmex can buy/ sell on the bid/ask spread because they have volume that BMs cannot come close to matching.
It is much more complicated than your post and I should be amazed that you can't (won't? ) see it.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@NJCoin said:
Apmex publishes a bid/ask spread. The difference represents a liquid market dealer markup. Anything beyond that is called "excess profits" where I come from.
The obvious conclusion would be that to avoid the "excess profits" scenario, one should sell to Apmex.
@jdimmick said:
Im telling you , the firms we ship too, who in the past have been pretty darn fair, are getting farther and farther back from spot. Not only, processing times are strung out farther. Also, some firms are using impaired/ non fresh too describe everything you ship them or sell to them (even if not so)) so they can be less. Been not only my experience lately, but several other dealers I ve talked with.
Exactly. Thank you for explaining it to people willing to listen.
It is much more complicated for smaller businesses than just looking at bid/ask spreads for institutional buyers.
It wasn't that long ago that Upstate stopped buying some forms of silver and even put people on 45 day (90 for one guy i know) payment terms. That's crippling for a small BM, some of whom stopped buying silver temporarily because they couldn't afford a 45 day hold.
I think reasonable people can understand the complex nature of moving the metals around. It's not a simple exchange transaction.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@NJCoin said:
Apmex publishes a bid/ask spread. The difference represents a liquid market dealer markup. Anything beyond that is called "excess profits" where I come from.
The obvious conclusion would be that to avoid the "excess profits" scenario, one should sell to Apmex.
Right?
Lol. I get the joke, but he won't.
For a guy with 5 or 10 ounces of silver, shipping eats into the margin and there is price risk and payment delays. So he takes a couple bucks less to sell to the local B&M who aggregates and sells it to a wholesaler like Apmex.
And, of course, as an aggregating, the BM has price risk because they also can't just do the 5 or 10 ounces so they need a little safety margin.
But the world is simpler in NJ.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@blitzdude said:
Paper price is $56 but dealers are only offering $45-50 in the physical world. Stuff like 90% and less the refiners don't even want it. RGDS!
Actually, spot is a physical price. As opposed to futures, which are paper.
According to my interweb, right now, as I post this on Sunday morning, closing futures on Friday were $57.03. Spot, according to Apmex, right now, is $55.33 Bid, $56.67 Ask.
Anyone offering $45-50 right now is just charging a ~10% commission to stand in the middle of a highly liquid transaction. It is not a reflection of pricing in the physical world.
The buyers at $45-50 can easily get a risk free flip at $55.33. Period. Just like we do at 7:30 a.m., chasing Mint sell outs that are going for 2x or more on eBay.
It's not quite that simple. The form of the silver matters. If they aren't comex bars, there is processing required.
Spot is not Comex bars. That's futures.
Spot is generic silver. And US Government silver is better than generic silver.
Dealers are just screwing people. Because spot is spot. And there is a VERY liquid market at spot.
Argue all you want. I'm not wrong.
Apmex publishes a bid/ask spread. The difference represents a liquid market dealer markup. Anything beyond that is called "excess profits" where I come from.
There is no "processing" involved in buying and selling ASEs. Just screwing the public. In and out, if the bid is below the widely available published bid. The ask is a different story, since ASEs trade at a premium to spot. As a result, the dealer bid should also be above the bid, because they cannot buy fresh ASEs from the Mint at spot.
Again, it's not that simple. Spot price is comex bars and the like because it is set by institutional buyers. If you walk into a BM with a 1 oz silver bat, what is that store going to do with it?
There aren't enough retail customers coming in to buy that 1 oz bar. So you have to aggregate. If you sell out to a wholesaler, it has to be shipped and it will be melted. That's not free.
My friend was buying at $52 Friday. He scrapped it at $54. That is hardly dealers ripping people off. And he only got that price because he has volume and is near a wholesaler.
There is not a line of buyers that matches the line of sellers. As is often the case, you are way off base. I'm rather surprised you don't know more about the business [See @jdimmick post above]
Apmex is not a small dealer. You ARE wrong.
I know more about this than you think. If your friend made a $2 spread when the published bid/ask spread was $1.33, he made $0.67 too much. Which is 50%, for those of you keeping score at home.
The person talking about $1,000 loaves of bread earlier today is not really in a position to lecture people about being way off base.
You'll also note that the buy prices (these are Upstate) differ by the form of the silver, sometimes by far more than your $1.33. If you need MORE proof that the market is more complicated that you represent:
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The past week and half, zero sales. In fact, been turning thousands and thousands of oz down, I have no buyers at all, ZERO
Few are buying at $60, yet; those who are buying are looking for back of spot or very close to spot. If you check the BST several sellers have been able to sell 90% material there in the past two weeks.
@291fifth said:
As long as chaos reigns the price will continue to rise. If chaos ends expect a big decline.
No. Silver is leading gold now. This is because there's a growing recognition of a silver shortage. There can't be a gold shortage because as price goes up there will be an equilibrium between supply and demand fixed by deficit spending and inflation. But they need silver delivered and without our coins every other source has already been tapped. The people buying silver have giants corporations, governments and eight billion taxpayers backing them.
Decades of allowing the banks to spoof silver have created a situation where the silver is gone, wasted, and shuttled into garbage dumps because bankers could get rich by breaking the law. Those who are still short are paying a very heavy price.
This isn't about chaos, it's returning sanity.
Chaos is a very important contributing factor. There may be other factors as well.
@NJCoin said:
Apmex publishes a bid/ask spread. The difference represents a liquid market dealer markup. Anything beyond that is called "excess profits" where I come from.
The obvious conclusion would be that to avoid the "excess profits" scenario, one should sell to Apmex.
Right?
Yes. @jmlanzaf is failing to recognize that the spread is not meant to be a risk free profit for a person standing at a counter matching buyers and sellers instantaneously. Because they could just meet in the middle and cut out the dealer entirely. The spread is meant to compensate for the risk of holding inventory. Period.
Blowing that spread out beyond widely published quotes is just taking advantage of unknowledgeable or desperate buyers or sellers.
@NJCoin
The spot spread you quote is for institutional players, betting millions daily. Why would you think that exact spread difference applies to the B&M's business model, who usually deal with a wholesaler who takes a cut (when the B&M has enough inventory to ship & wait for payment) & who pays the shipping costs.
Comments
Lmao. I said that gold at $100,000 probably means bread is $1000. I stand by that.
Where you are ridiculously (and stubbornly) wrong is that you are not recognizing that there is no way to realize that $1.33 spread unless you have equal volumes of buyers and sellers lined up.
Honestly, let's say silver is $50 there a $1 bid/ask spread. How do you expect a coin sure to make any money if they buy it at $49 and can't sell it for 2 days when the price is unknown?
Most small BMs - NOT APMEX - aggregate and end up wholesaling significant amounts. That means they are SELLING at the bid price not the ask price. Apmex can buy/ sell on the bid/ask spread because they have volume that BMs cannot come close to matching.
It is much more complicated than your post and I should be amazed that you can't (won't? ) see it.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The obvious conclusion would be that to avoid the "excess profits" scenario, one should sell to Apmex.
Right?
Exactly. Thank you for explaining it to people willing to listen.
It is much more complicated for smaller businesses than just looking at bid/ask spreads for institutional buyers.
It wasn't that long ago that Upstate stopped buying some forms of silver and even put people on 45 day (90 for one guy i know) payment terms. That's crippling for a small BM, some of whom stopped buying silver temporarily because they couldn't afford a 45 day hold.
I think reasonable people can understand the complex nature of moving the metals around. It's not a simple exchange transaction.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Lol. I get the joke, but he won't.
For a guy with 5 or 10 ounces of silver, shipping eats into the margin and there is price risk and payment delays. So he takes a couple bucks less to sell to the local B&M who aggregates and sells it to a wholesaler like Apmex.
And, of course, as an aggregating, the BM has price risk because they also can't just do the 5 or 10 ounces so they need a little safety margin.
But the world is simpler in NJ.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
What a hoot! Let it ride….
You'll also note that the buy prices (these are Upstate) differ by the form of the silver, sometimes by far more than your $1.33. If you need MORE proof that the market is more complicated that you represent:
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Few are buying at $60, yet; those who are buying are looking for back of spot or very close to spot. If you check the BST several sellers have been able to sell 90% material there in the past two weeks.
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Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Chaos is a very important contributing factor. There may be other factors as well.
Yes. @jmlanzaf is failing to recognize that the spread is not meant to be a risk free profit for a person standing at a counter matching buyers and sellers instantaneously. Because they could just meet in the middle and cut out the dealer entirely. The spread is meant to compensate for the risk of holding inventory. Period.
Blowing that spread out beyond widely published quotes is just taking advantage of unknowledgeable or desperate buyers or sellers.
@NJCoin
The spot spread you quote is for institutional players, betting millions daily. Why would you think that exact spread difference applies to the B&M's business model, who usually deal with a wholesaler who takes a cut (when the B&M has enough inventory to ship & wait for payment) & who pays the shipping costs.