More gov't. debt and borrowing for tax cuts, rebates, or basically vote buying, can only speed up the dollar debasement portion of the gold price. Central banks started the run, but individual investors and 401k's and IRS's using ETF's will keep it advancing over time as alternative investments become more popular.
When I said "I'll believe it when I see it", I was referring to the taxpayers getting back some of the tariff money.
I think with 100% certainty we will see "tariff rebates", probably 2k each, sometime around Thanksgiving.
I’d be inclined to take the “over” Thanksgiving date
A couple of weeks before the mid-term elections?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Anytime the gov or its central bank injects cash, regardless of its source, into the money system it is a form of QE. Think of tariff handouts as helicopter money funded by foreign countries.
If you understand what is coming, then you can duck. If not, then you get sucker-punched. - Martin Armstrong
QE, not so sure. Its not the Fed injecting money into banks to inject into the system. More like wealth distribution, taking money from a number of businesses that import goods and distributing to the millions. Anyway a bad idea and will promote inflation as a good # of folks will spend on bad choices and all at once.
@derryb said:
Anytime the gov or its central bank injects cash, regardless of its source, into the money system it is a form of QE. >Think of tariff handouts as helicopter money funded by foreign countries.
Since most tariffs are paid by consumers or shareholders, I consider it a rebate.
Like raising gasoline taxes to encourage fuel efficiency....then rebating each household.
Any cash given to the public comes from somewhere. How about money handouts during 08 GFC and Covid to stimulate spending? You could also call them tax "rebates," they came from tax receipts.
"Red flags have been raised that the banks are in desperate need of liquidity, but there is a deeper issue at play—the entire system is under stress."
"The public must have confidence in the banks, and the banks must have confidence that the Federal Reserve will always catch them before they fall. We’ve seen several smaller banks go under in 2025, yet they were small enough not to raise concerns. The Fed fears panic more than it fears inflation. Powell knows that the central bank lost the ability to control inflation, but for now, it can control panic."
If you understand what is coming, then you can duck. If not, then you get sucker-punched. - Martin Armstrong
@derryb said:
Anytime the gov or its central bank injects cash, regardless of its source, into the money system it is a form of QE. >Think of tariff handouts as helicopter money funded by foreign countries.
Since most tariffs are paid by consumers or shareholders, I consider it a rebate.
Like raising gasoline taxes to encourage fuel efficiency....then rebating each household.
I agree with the others, there are nuances of course, but this is fairly brilliant. It achieves the goal of encouraging domestic consumption (vs foreign) while somewhat mitigating the effect of higher prices on the consumer.
@GoldFinger1969 said: Silver at new high...gold bouncing back from recent sub-$4,000 lows.
Looks bullish but also a bit late-stage to me with the quick recovery in silver. But seeing bids underneath, esp. for gold, is nice.
I agree with the others, there are nuances of course, but this is fairly brilliant. It achieves the goal of encouraging domestic consumption (vs foreign) while somewhat mitigating the effect of higher prices on the consumer.
Except when it affects items not or minimally produced in this country, like coffee, spices, certain foods, and other items. Not a well thought out strategy with its blanket approach. And if a US small business goes bankrupt because if it, I don't want the $2,000.
I agree with the others, there are nuances of course, but this is fairly brilliant. It achieves the goal of encouraging domestic consumption (vs foreign) while somewhat mitigating the effect of higher prices on the consumer.
Except when it affects items not or minimally produced in this country, like coffee, spices, certain foods, and other items. Not a well thought out strategy with its blanket approach. And if a US small business goes bankrupt because if it, I don't want the $2,000.
As I said there are nuances. I'm sure small businesses may go bankrupt, but remember, there is no action that the government can take that will not adversely affect someone. Every policy change has a winner and a loser.
@blitzdude said:
Up several thousand percent on the BTC and ETH. Still BOOMIN!™ and adding more. RGDS!
Yes of course that's great when you're in early. However anyone who got in just last month, is taking a bath on it.
Hey, who the heck knows with that chit. I've never owned any crypto and probably never will. I'm not adverse to some risk in the stock market, gold, etc. But those swings are the most my blood pressure can take. LOL
@blitzdude said:
Up several thousand percent on the BTC and ETH. Still BOOMIN!™ and adding more. RGDS!
Yes of course that's great when you're in early. However anyone who got in just last month, is taking a bath on it.
Hey, who the heck knows with that chit. I've never owned any crypto and probably never will. I'm not adverse to some risk in the stock market, gold, etc. But those swings are the most my blood pressure can take. LOL
Sure, the 11% decline in gold that we saw from it's ATH is less than the 28% drop BTC just had. Where do you draw the line between what amount of volatility is acceptable? And what timeframe? We saw gold go from $1920 in Sept 2011 to $1050 about 4 years later. If volatility affects your blood pressure perhaps you'd be more comfortable in savings bonds?
@blitzdude said:
Up several thousand percent on the BTC and ETH. Still BOOMIN!™ and adding more. RGDS!
Yes of course that's great when you're in early. However anyone who got in just last month, is taking a bath on it.
Hey, who the heck knows with that chit. I've never owned any crypto and probably never will. I'm not adverse to some risk in the stock market, gold, etc. But those swings are the most my blood pressure can take. LOL
Sure, the 11% decline in gold that we saw from it's ATH is less than the 28% drop BTC just had. Where do you draw the line between what amount of volatility is acceptable? And what timeframe? We saw gold go from $1920 in Sept 2011 to $1050 about 4 years later. If volatility affects your blood pressure perhaps you'd be more comfortable in savings bonds?
No one ever thinks gold will go to zero value or even close to that.
In my view, nobody on this planet truly understands crypto. I don't need a crypto 101 explanation. But what puzzles me is anyone can come out with a new crypto. There are now many thousands of them. One would think because of that, the value of Bitcoin would get diluted.
Nobody can accurately predict the future of economics with certainty. But frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if one day Bitcoin takes a very precipitous drop, due to circumstances no human being has thought of quite yet. I'm not talking about some sort of world catastrophe, but just changing economic conditions and demands. I'm not willing to take that chance by owning crypto.
I have family and friends who agree with me on that assessment. They own some crypto as part of a balanced portfolio, and that's fine with me. They tell me even if their crypto went down to zero, it wouldn't affect their lifestyle or cause any hardship to them at all. So if you're gonna own crypto, in my opinion, that's the way to do it.
I may be wrong, but crypto was originally about hiding ownership and money transfer to prevent law enforcement & the public from tracing money, the drug cartels and the dark web loved it. Then it was promoted by early investors and the general public went FOMO. I have nothing to hide in my endeavors. Crypto creates nothing and relies on someone I don't know from cashing me out. I'll trust the US Govt, fortune 500 companies & PMs with my money.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
I may be wrong, but crypto was originally about hiding ownership and money transfer to prevent law enforcement & the public from tracing money, the drug cartels and the dark web loved it. Then it was promoted by early investors and the general public went FOMO. I have nothing to hide in my endeavors. Crypto creates nothing and relies on someone I don't know from cashing me out. I'll trust the US Govt, fortune 500 companies & PMs with my money.
You're exactly right. 👍
Another thing I don't understand about Bitcoin, and really don't care to understand, is the so-called "mining" process. Again I don't need a Bitcoin 101 dissertation, I've read all about it. But what if thru AI or some other means, somebody comes up with a mining process that produces Bitcoin much easier. The price on it would collapse. I wouldn't wish to be heavily involved in it, and wake-up one day to see that headline.
Of course others have tried doing that with gold throughout the ages, also known as alchemists. They failed, in my view, for obvious reasons. Those doing that with crypto, very well may not fail, and one day ya may wake-up to a worse than worthless Bitcoin portfolio.
At least with the tulips, you could still plant the bulbs and enjoy some pretty flowers. LOL
@blitzdude said:
Up several thousand percent on the BTC and ETH. Still BOOMIN!™ and adding more. RGDS!
Yes of course that's great when you're in early. However anyone who got in just last month, is taking a bath on it.
Hey, who the heck knows with that chit. I've never owned any crypto and probably never will. I'm not adverse to some risk in the stock market, gold, etc. But those swings are the most my blood pressure can take. LOL
Sure, the 11% decline in gold that we saw from it's ATH is less than the 28% drop BTC just had. Where do you draw the line between what amount of volatility is acceptable? And what timeframe? We saw gold go from $1920 in Sept 2011 to $1050 about 4 years later. If volatility affects your blood pressure perhaps you'd be more comfortable in savings bonds?
No one ever thinks gold will go to zero value or even close to that.
In my view, nobody on this planet truly understands crypto. I don't need a crypto 101 explanation. But what puzzles me is anyone can come out with a new crypto. There are now many thousands of them. One would think because of that, the value of Bitcoin would get diluted.
Nobody can accurately predict the future of economics with certainty. But frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if one day Bitcoin takes a very precipitous drop, due to circumstances no human being has thought of quite yet. I'm not talking about some sort of world catastrophe, but just changing economic conditions and demands. I'm not willing to take that chance by owning crypto.
I have family and friends who agree with me on that assessment. They own some crypto as part of a balanced portfolio, and that's fine with me. They tell me even if their crypto went down to zero, it wouldn't affect their lifestyle or cause any hardship to them at all. So if you're gonna own crypto, in my opinion, that's the way to do it.
I completely understand crypto and your comments indicate that you do not but I will refrain from a crypto 101 explanation.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
I may be wrong, but crypto was originally about hiding ownership and money transfer to prevent law enforcement & the public from tracing money, the drug cartels and the dark web loved it. Then it was promoted by early investors and the general public went FOMO. I have nothing to hide in my endeavors. Crypto creates nothing and relies on someone I don't know from cashing me out. I'll trust the US Govt, fortune 500 companies & PMs with my money.
You are wrong. The whole ethos of crypto is a public ledger with full transparency. You just have to know who owns the wallets. They have created crypto applications which provide a layer of privacy, but those are specific applications.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
I may be wrong, but crypto was originally about hiding ownership and money transfer to prevent law enforcement & the public from tracing money, the drug cartels and the dark web loved it. Then it was promoted by early investors and the general public went FOMO. I have nothing to hide in my endeavors. Crypto creates nothing and relies on someone I don't know from cashing me out. I'll trust the US Govt, fortune 500 companies & PMs with my money.
You're exactly right. 👍
Another thing I don't understand about Bitcoin, and really don't care to understand, is the so-called "mining" process. Again I don't need a Bitcoin 101 dissertation, I've read all about it. But what if thru AI or some other means, somebody comes up with a mining process that produces Bitcoin much easier. The price on it would collapse. I wouldn't wish to be heavily involved in it, and wake-up one day to see that headline.
Of course others have tried doing that with gold throughout the ages, also known as alchemists. They failed, in my view, for obvious reasons. Those doing that with crypto, very well may not fail, and one day ya may wake-up to a worse than worthless Bitcoin portfolio.
At least with the tulips, you could still plant the bulbs and enjoy some pretty flowers. LOL
You keep saying you don't want to understand and learn but you keep throwing out these issues which have easy answers. People forget that crypto is software that can evolve and change if needed. You also don't know even the fundamentals that the mining algo automatically adjusts so that as miners improve efficiency and capability the rate of Bitcoin production remains as intended. It's brilliant in its design. I don't understand why you want to keep professing your ignorance of the topic while explaining that you don't want to learn anything about it and somehow think you're making a contribution to the discussion here.
@blitzdude said:
Up several thousand percent on the BTC and ETH. Still BOOMIN!™ and adding more. RGDS!
Yes of course that's great when you're in early. However anyone who got in just last month, is taking a bath on it.
Hey, who the heck knows with that chit. I've never owned any crypto and probably never will. I'm not adverse to some risk in the stock market, gold, etc. But those swings are the most my blood pressure can take. LOL
Sure, the 11% decline in gold that we saw from it's ATH is less than the 28% drop BTC just had. Where do you draw the line between what amount of volatility is acceptable? And what timeframe? We saw gold go from $1920 in Sept 2011 to $1050 about 4 years later. If volatility affects your blood pressure perhaps you'd be more comfortable in savings bonds?
No one ever thinks gold will go to zero value or even close to that.
In my view, nobody on this planet truly understands crypto. I don't need a crypto 101 explanation. But what puzzles me is anyone can come out with a new crypto. There are now many thousands of them. One would think because of that, the value of Bitcoin would get diluted.
Nobody can accurately predict the future of economics with certainty. But frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if one day Bitcoin takes a very precipitous drop, due to circumstances no human being has thought of quite yet. I'm not talking about some sort of world catastrophe, but just changing economic conditions and demands. I'm not willing to take that chance by owning crypto.
I have family and friends who agree with me on that assessment. They own some crypto as part of a balanced portfolio, and that's fine with me. They tell me even if their crypto went down to zero, it wouldn't affect their lifestyle or cause any hardship to them at all. So if you're gonna own crypto, in my opinion, that's the way to do it.
I completely understand crypto and your comments indicate that you do not but I will refrain from a crypto 101 explanation.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
I may be wrong, but crypto was originally about hiding ownership and money transfer to prevent law enforcement & the public from tracing money, the drug cartels and the dark web loved it. Then it was promoted by early investors and the general public went FOMO. I have nothing to hide in my endeavors. Crypto creates nothing and relies on someone I don't know from cashing me out. I'll trust the US Govt, fortune 500 companies & PMs with my money.
You are wrong. The whole ethos of crypto is a public ledger with full transparency. You just have to know who owns the wallets. They have created crypto applications which provide a layer of privacy, but those are specific applications.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
I may be wrong, but crypto was originally about hiding ownership and money transfer to prevent law enforcement & the public from tracing money, the drug cartels and the dark web loved it. Then it was promoted by early investors and the general public went FOMO. I have nothing to hide in my endeavors. Crypto creates nothing and relies on someone I don't know from cashing me out. I'll trust the US Govt, fortune 500 companies & PMs with my money.
You're exactly right. 👍
Another thing I don't understand about Bitcoin, and really don't care to understand, is the so-called "mining" process. Again I don't need a Bitcoin 101 dissertation, I've read all about it. But what if thru AI or some other means, somebody comes up with a mining process that produces Bitcoin much easier. The price on it would collapse. I wouldn't wish to be heavily involved in it, and wake-up one day to see that headline.
Of course others have tried doing that with gold throughout the ages, also known as alchemists. They failed, in my view, for obvious reasons. Those doing that with crypto, very well may not fail, and one day ya may wake-up to a worse than worthless Bitcoin portfolio.
At least with the tulips, you could still plant the bulbs and enjoy some pretty flowers. LOL
You keep saying you don't want to understand and learn but you keep throwing out these issues which have easy answers. People forget that crypto is software that can evolve and change if needed. You also don't know even the fundamentals that the mining algo automatically adjusts so that as miners improve efficiency and capability the rate of Bitcoin production remains as intended. It's brilliant in its design. I don't understand why you want to keep professing your ignorance of the topic while explaining that you don't want to learn anything about it and somehow think you're making a contribution to the discussion here.
No, I'm sure I know as much about crypto as you, likely more.
The big difference is I don't have rose colored glasses about it, which you seem to have.
Or should I say tulip colored glasses? 😉
You've probably made a lot of money in crypto, and I'm happy for you. However if you think that will go on forever, I'm afraid you are highly likely very mistaken.
@ProofCollection
As I stated, crypto 'originally' was to help hide transactions. Yes the blockchain is a permanent record but as you stated, you have to know who owns the wallets. Surveillance technology is improving but will never be as easy as regulated banking, i.e. I wire funds to Pablo Escobar vs pay him bitcoin. Yes if the DOJ has suspicion and requests blockchains be broken apart to find my transaction, it could probably be identified if you know the day, time and wallets associated. My transaction could be 1 of a thousand bundled together vs a 1:1 wire.
@blitzdude said:
Up several thousand percent on the BTC and ETH. Still BOOMIN!™ and adding more. RGDS!
Yes of course that's great when you're in early. However anyone who got in just last month, is taking a bath on it.
Hey, who the heck knows with that chit. I've never owned any crypto and probably never will. I'm not adverse to some risk in the stock market, gold, etc. But those swings are the most my blood pressure can take. LOL
Sure, the 11% decline in gold that we saw from it's ATH is less than the 28% drop BTC just had. Where do you draw the line between what amount of volatility is acceptable? And what timeframe? We saw gold go from $1920 in Sept 2011 to $1050 about 4 years later. If volatility affects your blood pressure perhaps you'd be more comfortable in savings bonds?
No one ever thinks gold will go to zero value or even close to that.
In my view, nobody on this planet truly understands crypto. I don't need a crypto 101 explanation. But what puzzles me is anyone can come out with a new crypto. There are now many thousands of them. One would think because of that, the value of Bitcoin would get diluted.
Nobody can accurately predict the future of economics with certainty. But frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if one day Bitcoin takes a very precipitous drop, due to circumstances no human being has thought of quite yet. I'm not talking about some sort of world catastrophe, but just changing economic conditions and demands. I'm not willing to take that chance by owning crypto.
I have family and friends who agree with me on that assessment. They own some crypto as part of a balanced portfolio, and that's fine with me. They tell me even if their crypto went down to zero, it wouldn't affect their lifestyle or cause any hardship to them at all. So if you're gonna own crypto, in my opinion, that's the way to do it.
I completely understand crypto and your comments indicate that you do not but I will refrain from a crypto 101 explanation.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
I may be wrong, but crypto was originally about hiding ownership and money transfer to prevent law enforcement & the public from tracing money, the drug cartels and the dark web loved it. Then it was promoted by early investors and the general public went FOMO. I have nothing to hide in my endeavors. Crypto creates nothing and relies on someone I don't know from cashing me out. I'll trust the US Govt, fortune 500 companies & PMs with my money.
You are wrong. The whole ethos of crypto is a public ledger with full transparency. You just have to know who owns the wallets. They have created crypto applications which provide a layer of privacy, but those are specific applications.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
I may be wrong, but crypto was originally about hiding ownership and money transfer to prevent law enforcement & the public from tracing money, the drug cartels and the dark web loved it. Then it was promoted by early investors and the general public went FOMO. I have nothing to hide in my endeavors. Crypto creates nothing and relies on someone I don't know from cashing me out. I'll trust the US Govt, fortune 500 companies & PMs with my money.
You're exactly right. 👍
Another thing I don't understand about Bitcoin, and really don't care to understand, is the so-called "mining" process. Again I don't need a Bitcoin 101 dissertation, I've read all about it. But what if thru AI or some other means, somebody comes up with a mining process that produces Bitcoin much easier. The price on it would collapse. I wouldn't wish to be heavily involved in it, and wake-up one day to see that headline.
Of course others have tried doing that with gold throughout the ages, also known as alchemists. They failed, in my view, for obvious reasons. Those doing that with crypto, very well may not fail, and one day ya may wake-up to a worse than worthless Bitcoin portfolio.
At least with the tulips, you could still plant the bulbs and enjoy some pretty flowers. LOL
You keep saying you don't want to understand and learn but you keep throwing out these issues which have easy answers. People forget that crypto is software that can evolve and change if needed. You also don't know even the fundamentals that the mining algo automatically adjusts so that as miners improve efficiency and capability the rate of Bitcoin production remains as intended. It's brilliant in its design. I don't understand why you want to keep professing your ignorance of the topic while explaining that you don't want to learn anything about it and somehow think you're making a contribution to the discussion here.
No, I'm sure I know as much about crypto as you, likely more.
The big difference is I don't have rose colored glasses about it, which you seem to have.
Or should I say tulip colored glasses? 😉
You've probably made a lot of money in crypto, and I'm happy for you. However if you think that will go on forever, I'm afraid you are highly likely very mistaken.
"No, I'm sure I know as much about crypto as you, likely more."
Allow me to rephrase my first sentence here. You may, and likely if not definitely do "understand" more about the mining process of crypto than I do. Similar to the Tulip example, there would be many who understand better how to grow tulips than me, as I know nothing about that.
My point about likely knowing more than you, was from an economic and bubble collapse standpoint. Understanding human behavior, how bubbles begin, herd mentality, and why it eventually collapses.
I'm not trying to play Nostradamus as far as the time frame. But I'll be very surprised, if not shocked, if one day the price of Bitcoin doesn't collapse. We shall see.
18% draw down in BTC is nothing. If you are expecting short term gains you are going to get slaughtered. You need to own BTC for 4 years or more to own the full cycle. I was not early in it but have no doubt in 5 -10 years it will prove to be a fantastic investment.
@stevek said “ But what if thru AI or some other means, somebody comes up with a mining process that produces Bitcoin much easier. The price on it would collapse.”
Although better algorithms would affect the dynamics to some degree, they would not lead to a collapse in price. This is because the total number of bitcoins ever allowed is capped at 21 million (of which about 19.9 million have already been mined). Better algorithms would accelerate the day when all coins have been mined, but would not dramatically increase the supply.
@Higashiyama said: @stevek said “ But what if thru AI or some other means, somebody comes up with a mining process that produces Bitcoin much easier. The price on it would collapse.”
Although better algorithms would affect the dynamics to some degree, they would not lead to a collapse in price. This is because the total number of bitcoins ever allowed is capped at 21 million (of which about 19.9 million have already been mined). Better algorithms would accelerate the day when all coins have been mined, but would not dramatically increase the supply.
Okay, but so what? We understand why the dollar is used as negotiable currency throughout much of the world. But Bitcoin? Exactly what is standing behind that? How about nothing, other than some algorithm and weird mining idea.
Yes, I fully realize the value of something is what somebody else is willing to pay for it. In the early days of human civilization, sea shells were a popular currency. Now, try and go into a department store and buy a computer, using a conch shell, and see what happens.
Sea shells, tulips, and there are other examples. Sorry to say, Bitcoin is just the latest one. But of course ya never know how high the bubble will go or when it will collapse. But as sure as green apples, it will collapse. Only a question of when. And when it does, it will happen much faster than anyone may be able to comprehend right now.
Crypto geeks wallow in an insulated tech bubble. With absolutely no awareness that the mass of humanity don’t care or understand it. The masses understand currency they can hold in their hands. lolz crypto
@blitzdude said:
Up several thousand percent on the BTC and ETH. Still BOOMIN!™ and adding more. RGDS!
Yes of course that's great when you're in early. However anyone who got in just last month, is taking a bath on it.
Hey, who the heck knows with that chit. I've never owned any crypto and probably never will. I'm not adverse to some risk in the stock market, gold, etc. But those swings are the most my blood pressure can take. LOL
Sure, the 11% decline in gold that we saw from it's ATH is less than the 28% drop BTC just had. Where do you draw the line between what amount of volatility is acceptable? And what timeframe? We saw gold go from $1920 in Sept 2011 to $1050 about 4 years later. If volatility affects your blood pressure perhaps you'd be more comfortable in savings bonds?
No one ever thinks gold will go to zero value or even close to that.
In my view, nobody on this planet truly understands crypto. I don't need a crypto 101 explanation. But what puzzles me is anyone can come out with a new crypto. There are now many thousands of them. One would think because of that, the value of Bitcoin would get diluted.
Nobody can accurately predict the future of economics with certainty. But frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if one day Bitcoin takes a very precipitous drop, due to circumstances no human being has thought of quite yet. I'm not talking about some sort of world catastrophe, but just changing economic conditions and demands. I'm not willing to take that chance by owning crypto.
I have family and friends who agree with me on that assessment. They own some crypto as part of a balanced portfolio, and that's fine with me. They tell me even if their crypto went down to zero, it wouldn't affect their lifestyle or cause any hardship to them at all. So if you're gonna own crypto, in my opinion, that's the way to do it.
I completely understand crypto and your comments indicate that you do not but I will refrain from a crypto 101 explanation.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
I may be wrong, but crypto was originally about hiding ownership and money transfer to prevent law enforcement & the public from tracing money, the drug cartels and the dark web loved it. Then it was promoted by early investors and the general public went FOMO. I have nothing to hide in my endeavors. Crypto creates nothing and relies on someone I don't know from cashing me out. I'll trust the US Govt, fortune 500 companies & PMs with my money.
You are wrong. The whole ethos of crypto is a public ledger with full transparency. You just have to know who owns the wallets. They have created crypto applications which provide a layer of privacy, but those are specific applications.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
I may be wrong, but crypto was originally about hiding ownership and money transfer to prevent law enforcement & the public from tracing money, the drug cartels and the dark web loved it. Then it was promoted by early investors and the general public went FOMO. I have nothing to hide in my endeavors. Crypto creates nothing and relies on someone I don't know from cashing me out. I'll trust the US Govt, fortune 500 companies & PMs with my money.
You're exactly right. 👍
Another thing I don't understand about Bitcoin, and really don't care to understand, is the so-called "mining" process. Again I don't need a Bitcoin 101 dissertation, I've read all about it. But what if thru AI or some other means, somebody comes up with a mining process that produces Bitcoin much easier. The price on it would collapse. I wouldn't wish to be heavily involved in it, and wake-up one day to see that headline.
Of course others have tried doing that with gold throughout the ages, also known as alchemists. They failed, in my view, for obvious reasons. Those doing that with crypto, very well may not fail, and one day ya may wake-up to a worse than worthless Bitcoin portfolio.
At least with the tulips, you could still plant the bulbs and enjoy some pretty flowers. LOL
You keep saying you don't want to understand and learn but you keep throwing out these issues which have easy answers. People forget that crypto is software that can evolve and change if needed. You also don't know even the fundamentals that the mining algo automatically adjusts so that as miners improve efficiency and capability the rate of Bitcoin production remains as intended. It's brilliant in its design. I don't understand why you want to keep professing your ignorance of the topic while explaining that you don't want to learn anything about it and somehow think you're making a contribution to the discussion here.
No, I'm sure I know as much about crypto as you, likely more.
The big difference is I don't have rose colored glasses about it, which you seem to have.
Or should I say tulip colored glasses? 😉
You've probably made a lot of money in crypto, and I'm happy for you. However if you think that will go on forever, I'm afraid you are highly likely very mistaken.
No, you clearly have a lot to learn about crypto or you wouldn't have made the statements you made. It's obvious. You, as well as most of the world still fail to see and understand the value and the technology. That's OK. People thought the internet was for nerds until we had Myspace and Facebook. You'll get there someday. That's not to say that in 1000 years Bitcoin will still have value, but it will for my the rest of my lifetime. The next evolution of crypto will be that you will use it and not even know it. The same digs you make about crypto can be made about precious metals as well. Technology could advance to manufacture gold in a lab or an unbelievably huge mining deposit could be discovered tomorrow and suppress price for decades or centuries.
I believe in all asset classes. Crypto isn't for everyone just like real estate or bonds aren't either. They all have their place in the economy and they will all have their bull and bear markets. We'll see $1M Bitcoin before we'll see $0 Bitcoin. It's OK if you prefer to make money in other sectors, but you really should avoid bagging on that which you don't understand.
@Higashiyama said: @stevek said “ But what if thru AI or some other means, somebody comes up with a mining process that produces Bitcoin much easier. The price on it would collapse.”
Although better algorithms would affect the dynamics to some degree, they would not lead to a collapse in price. This is because the total number of bitcoins ever allowed is capped at 21 million (of which about 19.9 million have already been mined). Better algorithms would accelerate the day when all coins have been mined, but would not dramatically increase the supply.
No, the rate of production of bitcoin cannot be accelerated. If I wasn't clear above, the bitcoin software adjusts production so that it will always only produce according to the production schedule. Mining hardware has evolved rapidly since Bitcoin started and the global mine size has also increased exponentially. And sometimes it even goes down. But it always produces according to the original schedule.
@blitzdude said:
Up several thousand percent on the BTC and ETH. Still BOOMIN!™ and adding more. RGDS!
Yes of course that's great when you're in early. However anyone who got in just last month, is taking a bath on it.
Hey, who the heck knows with that chit. I've never owned any crypto and probably never will. I'm not adverse to some risk in the stock market, gold, etc. But those swings are the most my blood pressure can take. LOL
Sure, the 11% decline in gold that we saw from it's ATH is less than the 28% drop BTC just had. Where do you draw the line between what amount of volatility is acceptable? And what timeframe? We saw gold go from $1920 in Sept 2011 to $1050 about 4 years later. If volatility affects your blood pressure perhaps you'd be more comfortable in savings bonds?
No one ever thinks gold will go to zero value or even close to that.
In my view, nobody on this planet truly understands crypto. I don't need a crypto 101 explanation. But what puzzles me is anyone can come out with a new crypto. There are now many thousands of them. One would think because of that, the value of Bitcoin would get diluted.
Nobody can accurately predict the future of economics with certainty. But frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if one day Bitcoin takes a very precipitous drop, due to circumstances no human being has thought of quite yet. I'm not talking about some sort of world catastrophe, but just changing economic conditions and demands. I'm not willing to take that chance by owning crypto.
I have family and friends who agree with me on that assessment. They own some crypto as part of a balanced portfolio, and that's fine with me. They tell me even if their crypto went down to zero, it wouldn't affect their lifestyle or cause any hardship to them at all. So if you're gonna own crypto, in my opinion, that's the way to do it.
I completely understand crypto and your comments indicate that you do not but I will refrain from a crypto 101 explanation.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
I may be wrong, but crypto was originally about hiding ownership and money transfer to prevent law enforcement & the public from tracing money, the drug cartels and the dark web loved it. Then it was promoted by early investors and the general public went FOMO. I have nothing to hide in my endeavors. Crypto creates nothing and relies on someone I don't know from cashing me out. I'll trust the US Govt, fortune 500 companies & PMs with my money.
You are wrong. The whole ethos of crypto is a public ledger with full transparency. You just have to know who owns the wallets. They have created crypto applications which provide a layer of privacy, but those are specific applications.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
I may be wrong, but crypto was originally about hiding ownership and money transfer to prevent law enforcement & the public from tracing money, the drug cartels and the dark web loved it. Then it was promoted by early investors and the general public went FOMO. I have nothing to hide in my endeavors. Crypto creates nothing and relies on someone I don't know from cashing me out. I'll trust the US Govt, fortune 500 companies & PMs with my money.
You're exactly right. 👍
Another thing I don't understand about Bitcoin, and really don't care to understand, is the so-called "mining" process. Again I don't need a Bitcoin 101 dissertation, I've read all about it. But what if thru AI or some other means, somebody comes up with a mining process that produces Bitcoin much easier. The price on it would collapse. I wouldn't wish to be heavily involved in it, and wake-up one day to see that headline.
Of course others have tried doing that with gold throughout the ages, also known as alchemists. They failed, in my view, for obvious reasons. Those doing that with crypto, very well may not fail, and one day ya may wake-up to a worse than worthless Bitcoin portfolio.
At least with the tulips, you could still plant the bulbs and enjoy some pretty flowers. LOL
You keep saying you don't want to understand and learn but you keep throwing out these issues which have easy answers. People forget that crypto is software that can evolve and change if needed. You also don't know even the fundamentals that the mining algo automatically adjusts so that as miners improve efficiency and capability the rate of Bitcoin production remains as intended. It's brilliant in its design. I don't understand why you want to keep professing your ignorance of the topic while explaining that you don't want to learn anything about it and somehow think you're making a contribution to the discussion here.
No, I'm sure I know as much about crypto as you, likely more.
The big difference is I don't have rose colored glasses about it, which you seem to have.
Or should I say tulip colored glasses? 😉
You've probably made a lot of money in crypto, and I'm happy for you. However if you think that will go on forever, I'm afraid you are highly likely very mistaken.
No, you clearly have a lot to learn about crypto or you wouldn't have made the statements you made. It's obvious. You, as well as most of the world still fail to see and understand the value and the technology. That's OK. People thought the internet was for nerds until we had Myspace and Facebook. You'll get there someday. That's not to say that in 1000 years Bitcoin will still have value, but it will for my the rest of my lifetime. The next evolution of crypto will be that you will use it and not even know it. The same digs you make about crypto can be made about precious metals as well. Technology could advance to manufacture gold in a lab or an unbelievably huge mining deposit could be discovered tomorrow and suppress price for decades or centuries.
I believe in all asset classes. Crypto isn't for everyone just like real estate or bonds aren't either. They all have their place in the economy and they will all have their bull and bear markets. We'll see $1M Bitcoin before we'll see $0 Bitcoin. It's OK if you prefer to make money in other sectors, but you really should avoid bagging on that which you don't understand.
@Higashiyama said: @stevek said “ But what if thru AI or some other means, somebody comes up with a mining process that produces Bitcoin much easier. The price on it would collapse.”
Although better algorithms would affect the dynamics to some degree, they would not lead to a collapse in price. This is because the total number of bitcoins ever allowed is capped at 21 million (of which about 19.9 million have already been mined). Better algorithms would accelerate the day when all coins have been mined, but would not dramatically increase the supply.
No, the rate of production of bitcoin cannot be accelerated. If I wasn't clear above, the bitcoin software adjusts production so that it will always only produce according to the production schedule. Mining hardware has evolved rapidly since Bitcoin started and the global mine size has also increased exponentially. And sometimes it even goes down. But it always produces according to the original schedule.
Yes, but will this "mining" procedure eventually one day be mining pyrite?
"People thought the internet was for nerds until we had Myspace and Facebook."
Come on now, I don't know or ever heard of anybody who wasn't enthralled at the concept of the internet, and when it came to fruition, did anything but marvel at what a great idea it was. Clearly you're trying way too hard to make your point.
Right now Bitcoin is down around 10% in the past 24 hours. Is this like a bad rainstorm and when the storm is over, then the water will help plants to grow better than ever? Or is this like smoke billowing from the Pompeii volcano, and the citizens weren't that worried about it? We shall see.
Although financial markets are impossible to predict in the short term, a few things I’m confident of if you take a very long term perspective:
Gold will roughly track inflation
A diversified portfolio of equities will beat inflation, and
Bitcoin will go to zero
Read the second line in my sig line. What Voltaire said about paper money is also true of bitcoin and all other crypto currencies.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
@ProofCollection said “No, the rate of production of bitcoin cannot be accelerated. If I wasn't clear above, the bitcoin software adjusts production so that it will always”
Thanks for this correction. It’s a fascinating point, AI should impact the cost of mining and likely the number of mining operations, but will have negligible impact on the aggregate rate of mining.
It remains plausible to believe that the long term value of bitcoin will trend to zero. I find it hard to believe that bitcoin has long term value as a means of exchange, store of value, etc. Bitcoin and the bitcoin community may prove to be quite resilient, but …
Comments
I think with 100% certainty we will see "tariff rebates", probably 2k each, sometime around Thanksgiving.
More gov't. debt and borrowing for tax cuts, rebates, or basically vote buying, can only speed up the dollar debasement portion of the gold price. Central banks started the run, but individual investors and 401k's and IRS's using ETF's will keep it advancing over time as alternative investments become more popular.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Tariff rebates are just another form of QE.
If you understand what is coming, then you can duck. If not, then you get sucker-punched. - Martin Armstrong
I’d be inclined to take the “over” Thanksgiving date
A couple of weeks before the mid-term elections?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I think the Supreme Court will throw a monkey wrench into the Administration's plans
That's too late, it has to happen this year, or it won't happen at all. I believe 100% it will happen.
.> @Wingsrule said:
I would take the "never".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
That “check” would add fuel to recent pm explosions.
COPPER is gutter !
They are a fiscal policy adjustment, not monetary. Nothing to do with QE.
Silver at new high...gold bouncing back from recent sub-$4,000 lows.
Looks bullish but also a bit late-stage to me with the quick recovery in silver. But seeing bids underneath, esp. for gold, is nice.
Anytime the gov or its central bank injects cash, regardless of its source, into the money system it is a form of QE. Think of tariff handouts as helicopter money funded by foreign countries.
If you understand what is coming, then you can duck. If not, then you get sucker-punched. - Martin Armstrong
QE, not so sure. Its not the Fed injecting money into banks to inject into the system. More like wealth distribution, taking money from a number of businesses that import goods and distributing to the millions. Anyway a bad idea and will promote inflation as a good # of folks will spend on bad choices and all at once.
as I said, it is a form of QE_
If you understand what is coming, then you can duck. If not, then you get sucker-punched. - Martin Armstrong
Since most tariffs are paid by consumers or shareholders, I consider it a rebate.
Like raising gasoline taxes to encourage fuel efficiency....then rebating each household.
Any cash given to the public comes from somewhere. How about money handouts during 08 GFC and Covid to stimulate spending? You could also call them tax "rebates," they came from tax receipts.
Even more QE coming.
Additionally, more QE in the works
"Red flags have been raised that the banks are in desperate need of liquidity, but there is a deeper issue at play—the entire system is under stress."
"The public must have confidence in the banks, and the banks must have confidence that the Federal Reserve will always catch them before they fall. We’ve seen several smaller banks go under in 2025, yet they were small enough not to raise concerns. The Fed fears panic more than it fears inflation. Powell knows that the central bank lost the ability to control inflation, but for now, it can control panic."
If you understand what is coming, then you can duck. If not, then you get sucker-punched. - Martin Armstrong
I agree with the others, there are nuances of course, but this is fairly brilliant. It achieves the goal of encouraging domestic consumption (vs foreign) while somewhat mitigating the effect of higher prices on the consumer.
No new highs yet but we're close.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Except when it affects items not or minimally produced in this country, like coffee, spices, certain foods, and other items. Not a well thought out strategy with its blanket approach. And if a US small business goes bankrupt because if it, I don't want the $2,000.
As I said there are nuances. I'm sure small businesses may go bankrupt, but remember, there is no action that the government can take that will not adversely affect someone. Every policy change has a winner and a loser.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Gold holding steady.
Bitcoin dropping like a rock
BitCrap down 35K from its peak.
lolz
COPPER is gutter !
Thank goodness I stayed with PCGS gold coins. Made the most sense to me, still does. 😎
I dunno why, but Bitcoin reminds me too much of tulips. Not sure how I envisioned that. LOL
.
Maybe this ?
Yeah, gold's never dropped 28% before.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/vII3xWrXzwY
http://ProofCollection.Net
Up several thousand percent on the BTC and ETH. Still BOOMIN!™ and adding more. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Take on an old joke:
Homeless being interviewed, as to what happened?
First guy says, too much alcohol
Second guy says, too much drugs
Third guy says, too much crypto
Yes of course that's great when you're in early. However anyone who got in just last month, is taking a bath on it.
Hey, who the heck knows with that chit. I've never owned any crypto and probably never will. I'm not adverse to some risk in the stock market, gold, etc. But those swings are the most my blood pressure can take. LOL
Sure, the 11% decline in gold that we saw from it's ATH is less than the 28% drop BTC just had. Where do you draw the line between what amount of volatility is acceptable? And what timeframe? We saw gold go from $1920 in Sept 2011 to $1050 about 4 years later. If volatility affects your blood pressure perhaps you'd be more comfortable in savings bonds?
http://ProofCollection.Net
No one ever thinks gold will go to zero value or even close to that.
In my view, nobody on this planet truly understands crypto. I don't need a crypto 101 explanation. But what puzzles me is anyone can come out with a new crypto. There are now many thousands of them. One would think because of that, the value of Bitcoin would get diluted.
Nobody can accurately predict the future of economics with certainty. But frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if one day Bitcoin takes a very precipitous drop, due to circumstances no human being has thought of quite yet. I'm not talking about some sort of world catastrophe, but just changing economic conditions and demands. I'm not willing to take that chance by owning crypto.
I have family and friends who agree with me on that assessment. They own some crypto as part of a balanced portfolio, and that's fine with me. They tell me even if their crypto went down to zero, it wouldn't affect their lifestyle or cause any hardship to them at all. So if you're gonna own crypto, in my opinion, that's the way to do it.
I may be wrong, but crypto was originally about hiding ownership and money transfer to prevent law enforcement & the public from tracing money, the drug cartels and the dark web loved it. Then it was promoted by early investors and the general public went FOMO. I have nothing to hide in my endeavors. Crypto creates nothing and relies on someone I don't know from cashing me out. I'll trust the US Govt, fortune 500 companies & PMs with my money.
You're exactly right. 👍
Another thing I don't understand about Bitcoin, and really don't care to understand, is the so-called "mining" process. Again I don't need a Bitcoin 101 dissertation, I've read all about it. But what if thru AI or some other means, somebody comes up with a mining process that produces Bitcoin much easier. The price on it would collapse. I wouldn't wish to be heavily involved in it, and wake-up one day to see that headline.
Of course others have tried doing that with gold throughout the ages, also known as alchemists. They failed, in my view, for obvious reasons. Those doing that with crypto, very well may not fail, and one day ya may wake-up to a worse than worthless Bitcoin portfolio.
At least with the tulips, you could still plant the bulbs and enjoy some pretty flowers. LOL
I completely understand crypto and your comments indicate that you do not but I will refrain from a crypto 101 explanation.
You are wrong. The whole ethos of crypto is a public ledger with full transparency. You just have to know who owns the wallets. They have created crypto applications which provide a layer of privacy, but those are specific applications.
You keep saying you don't want to understand and learn but you keep throwing out these issues which have easy answers. People forget that crypto is software that can evolve and change if needed. You also don't know even the fundamentals that the mining algo automatically adjusts so that as miners improve efficiency and capability the rate of Bitcoin production remains as intended. It's brilliant in its design. I don't understand why you want to keep professing your ignorance of the topic while explaining that you don't want to learn anything about it and somehow think you're making a contribution to the discussion here.
http://ProofCollection.Net
No, I'm sure I know as much about crypto as you, likely more.
The big difference is I don't have rose colored glasses about it, which you seem to have.
Or should I say tulip colored glasses? 😉
You've probably made a lot of money in crypto, and I'm happy for you. However if you think that will go on forever, I'm afraid you are highly likely very mistaken.
@ProofCollection
As I stated, crypto 'originally' was to help hide transactions. Yes the blockchain is a permanent record but as you stated, you have to know who owns the wallets. Surveillance technology is improving but will never be as easy as regulated banking, i.e. I wire funds to Pablo Escobar vs pay him bitcoin. Yes if the DOJ has suspicion and requests blockchains be broken apart to find my transaction, it could probably be identified if you know the day, time and wallets associated. My transaction could be 1 of a thousand bundled together vs a 1:1 wire.
"No, I'm sure I know as much about crypto as you, likely more."
Allow me to rephrase my first sentence here. You may, and likely if not definitely do "understand" more about the mining process of crypto than I do. Similar to the Tulip example, there would be many who understand better how to grow tulips than me, as I know nothing about that.
My point about likely knowing more than you, was from an economic and bubble collapse standpoint. Understanding human behavior, how bubbles begin, herd mentality, and why it eventually collapses.
I'm not trying to play Nostradamus as far as the time frame. But I'll be very surprised, if not shocked, if one day the price of Bitcoin doesn't collapse. We shall see.
18% draw down in BTC is nothing. If you are expecting short term gains you are going to get slaughtered. You need to own BTC for 4 years or more to own the full cycle. I was not early in it but have no doubt in 5 -10 years it will prove to be a fantastic investment.
@stevek said “ But what if thru AI or some other means, somebody comes up with a mining process that produces Bitcoin much easier. The price on it would collapse.”
Although better algorithms would affect the dynamics to some degree, they would not lead to a collapse in price. This is because the total number of bitcoins ever allowed is capped at 21 million (of which about 19.9 million have already been mined). Better algorithms would accelerate the day when all coins have been mined, but would not dramatically increase the supply.
Okay, but so what? We understand why the dollar is used as negotiable currency throughout much of the world. But Bitcoin? Exactly what is standing behind that? How about nothing, other than some algorithm and weird mining idea.
Yes, I fully realize the value of something is what somebody else is willing to pay for it. In the early days of human civilization, sea shells were a popular currency. Now, try and go into a department store and buy a computer, using a conch shell, and see what happens.
Sea shells, tulips, and there are other examples. Sorry to say, Bitcoin is just the latest one. But of course ya never know how high the bubble will go or when it will collapse. But as sure as green apples, it will collapse. Only a question of when. And when it does, it will happen much faster than anyone may be able to comprehend right now.
@stevek:
I’m definitely not a Bitcoin advocate! 😮
Although financial markets are impossible to predict in the short term, a few things I’m confident of if you take a very long term perspective:
Gold will roughly track inflation
A diversified portfolio of equities will beat inflation, and
Bitcoin will go to zero
Bitcoin down 6% today.
Could be what we discussed, or just those who have made a fortune in it, gettin' out while the gettin' is good. Taking their profits.
Doesn't quite feel like a crash yet, in the classic sense of the term. But who knows? And I'm not about to try to predict exactly when.
Crypto geeks wallow in an insulated tech bubble. With absolutely no awareness that the mass of humanity don’t care or understand it. The masses understand currency they can hold in their hands. lolz crypto
COPPER is gutter !
I went and purchased a dozen eggs and a gallon of milk today with bitcoin.
lol no I didn’t
COPPER is gutter !
I did open a Coinbase account some years ago, but never made a deposit into it.
I've been a coin collector since the first grade, but never any Bitcoin. LOL
.> @Higashiyama said:
Say it loud brother!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
No, you clearly have a lot to learn about crypto or you wouldn't have made the statements you made. It's obvious. You, as well as most of the world still fail to see and understand the value and the technology. That's OK. People thought the internet was for nerds until we had Myspace and Facebook. You'll get there someday. That's not to say that in 1000 years Bitcoin will still have value, but it will for my the rest of my lifetime. The next evolution of crypto will be that you will use it and not even know it. The same digs you make about crypto can be made about precious metals as well. Technology could advance to manufacture gold in a lab or an unbelievably huge mining deposit could be discovered tomorrow and suppress price for decades or centuries.
I believe in all asset classes. Crypto isn't for everyone just like real estate or bonds aren't either. They all have their place in the economy and they will all have their bull and bear markets. We'll see $1M Bitcoin before we'll see $0 Bitcoin. It's OK if you prefer to make money in other sectors, but you really should avoid bagging on that which you don't understand.
No, the rate of production of bitcoin cannot be accelerated. If I wasn't clear above, the bitcoin software adjusts production so that it will always only produce according to the production schedule. Mining hardware has evolved rapidly since Bitcoin started and the global mine size has also increased exponentially. And sometimes it even goes down. But it always produces according to the original schedule.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Yes, but will this "mining" procedure eventually one day be mining pyrite?
"People thought the internet was for nerds until we had Myspace and Facebook."
Come on now, I don't know or ever heard of anybody who wasn't enthralled at the concept of the internet, and when it came to fruition, did anything but marvel at what a great idea it was. Clearly you're trying way too hard to make your point.
Right now Bitcoin is down around 10% in the past 24 hours. Is this like a bad rainstorm and when the storm is over, then the water will help plants to grow better than ever? Or is this like smoke billowing from the Pompeii volcano, and the citizens weren't that worried about it? We shall see.
Read the second line in my sig line. What Voltaire said about paper money is also true of bitcoin and all other crypto currencies.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire"
There may be a little bit of value in it for use as kindling. LOL
@ProofCollection said “No, the rate of production of bitcoin cannot be accelerated. If I wasn't clear above, the bitcoin software adjusts production so that it will always”
Thanks for this correction. It’s a fascinating point, AI should impact the cost of mining and likely the number of mining operations, but will have negligible impact on the aggregate rate of mining.
It remains plausible to believe that the long term value of bitcoin will trend to zero. I find it hard to believe that bitcoin has long term value as a means of exchange, store of value, etc. Bitcoin and the bitcoin community may prove to be quite resilient, but …