1982 Topps baseball traded set case - Ripken rookie.
Yankees70
Posts: 885 ✭✭✭✭
Question. My best buddy who is a prison guard at Pelican Bay works with a guy who claims he has an unopened 1982 Topps baseball traded case (100 sets) that he purchased the year of issue. The guy is a huge Orioles fan. If he were to open the case and send all 100 Ripken's to PSA what is the most likely result he will get with regards to the number of PSA 9's and 10's he would receive?
Of course I'm not expecting spot on responses. I'm just looking for a ball park idea on what he's most likely going to receive. I know PSA is grading cards a lot harder. Do any of you guys have any experience opening up traded cases and submitting large amounts of the key rookies to PSA?
Any help would be appreciated.
Thank you.
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Comments
If the case is actually still sealed, he would be money ahead to send it to BBCE, have them wrap all of the sets as FASC (from a sealed case) and then sell the sets one by one. It's a total gamble what grades he will get on the individual cards, but the sealed sets will sell strong I would think.
kevin
I agree with you and that's what I would do. I'm asking this question because this is the question he asked my buddy. I think he's trying to do the math. How many 10's would he have to receive to be better off in his scenario?
Hi Dennis
I've never heard of anyone opening a case and giving stats and POP report would be skewed IMO since no one is sending in possible 6s and lower?
Here's what AI thinks with the fact that PSA POPs are skewed.
If he received five PSA 10's and 45 PSA 9's he would probably be better off than doing what tulsa boy suggested. I wonder if those numbers are reasonable expectations?
I'd be surprised if he received even one 10. However if he consigns them for sale raw via a well known New England based interest and they submit them then he may very well hit 4-7 10's. All that assumes they were stored properly and not totally "bricked"
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
Definitely have a chat with the New Englanders.
Speaking of the New England based interest I just found a thread from this website from 2012:
I noticed that 4SC had sold a bunch of PSA 10 1982 Topps Traded Ripkens in January (6) and was wondering how many more they might have...
I checked the cert numbers for the sold Ripkens and searched for the first Ripken graded in the sub 19247492. I then jumped ahead and tried to find the last Ripken graded in the sub 19247678. Every card from 19247492 to 19247678 was a 1982 TT Ripken. There was one number in the sequence that didn't have a card associated with it 19247553 but the card prior and the card after were both 82 TT Ripkens so I am assuming that 7553 got a min size no grade. I think it is safe to say that 19247492 -> 19247678 is part of a single sub. 4SC sold 19247495 on Jan 10th and 19247580 on Jan 31st and 19247676 on Jan 30th.
On this mammoth Ripken sub 4SC how did they do???
Here is the breakdown:
They received 60 PSA 10s.
They received 103 PSA 9s.
They received 24 others included two 5s.
Looking at the pop report there have been 8000 or so 1982 TT Ripkens submitted with 155 PSA 10s for a rate of just under 2% of those graded were 10s. Somehow 4SC managed to have ~32% of their submitted Ripkens receive 10s on this sub. Hard to imagine that 4SC managed to unearth an 82 TT find that resulted in over 1/3rd of the PSA 10s ever graded...
Admittedly I had some free time on my hands this morning but initially perusing the cert verification for this sub I could not quite believe the results.
Just an aside to this conversation as I recall busting an ‘82TT case in the early 90s and most of the 100 Ripkens pulled would not have merited a 10.
Excel is a powerful drug.
If you take the most recent realized price for 6's through 10's and that AI distribution holds, that would be $63,164 of value. If all the 10s turned out to be 9s, then it would be $30,104.
I'd have to imagine FASC sets would go for $400 each, so $40,000 if left intact. Authentication fee would be $20 times 100 sets, so $38,000 net after authentication.
Grading fees would be $22 times 100, but then upcharged to $599 for any 10s (I think).
Based on this, you would need to hit 2 10s to come out ahead of the intact case. Your after grading net would be $39,974.
I think you would be extremely lucky to hit 2 10s in the current grading landscape.
I think on average you are almost always worse off opening anything that is older in bulk. You can hit a homerun on one. But in total I think opening 100 of anything is almost guaranteed to be a loss compared to sale price of the unopened.
Open a pack of 75 you could get a centered Brett or Yount or one of many valuable stars. But if you had 2 cases of 75 Topps and you wanted to open it and see how you did, think you close to always lose money on the value of what you pull vs. what you could sell the FASC boxes for. Or the individual packs.
I think the BBCE FASC authentication makes sense as an idea. But I would say if you had 100, keep 3 and open, sell 97. Cause think it would be cool to have some token of that awesome held investment. Then maybe with all the funds received buy a couple Cal PSA 10s. Or a tough minor league Cal. Both maybe.
If I had to guess I would say the AI was off on the PSA 9s. PSA 10s I could see 1 to 3. But think that is a high visibility POP-controlled card where maybe if its the Kent Hrbek its a 9 but the Cal much more strict. I'd guess 15 to 18 9s.
Think there is also just a danger its a bad run for Cals in the case. I have looked through about 18 vending boxes in a case where with certain cards there was not a single one that could be a PSA 9 or better. But then other cards most look like potential 9s or 10s.
my brother opened a case of 1986 topps traded and sent 100 bonds and 100 bo jacksons to psa.
he got one bonds 10 and two jackson 10s
Coinspack was that a recent submission?
Sell as FASC…too much risk and low probability of finding enough 10s to sell more than FASC.
Let's say you would win a million dollars if you guessed correctly:
Total amount of PSA 10's in the 100 set case:
Over Under is 3 1/2
Total amount of PSA 9's in the 100 set case:
Over/Under 40 1/2
Under on both.
About 6 months ago
No million dollars. No guessing. The case is sealed, right? Original. Tell the buddy's buddy or however the chain of command works here - there is no substitute for the absolute possibility that with the blessing of authentication from a well-known highly regarded "expert" in the field, the case will pull in a healthy sum of money in an auction for the big spenders. It would be a feature item. Selling 100 authenticated sets may be wise, but will also take more time, effort and expense.
I bought a bunch of the 82TT FASC sets at auction about 15 years ago and opened a handful (still have 40). All I got back were 8s and 9s.
I also did the same with about 20 86TT 4 or 5 years ago. Of those about 10 Bonds and Bo’s were worth subbing and didn’t get a 10 on either. So manyOC.
My rip stats would suggest 1982 TT sets average 1.6% PSA 10 and 17% PSA 9. The NE company ripped two sealed cases years ago and landed the majority of the PSA 10 in the marketplace from that sub. Many of those PSA 10 are not centered 50/50 and likely would be 8-9 by today’s grading standards.
If your friend wants to sell the case, I am a buyer. I would personally keep the case sealed as is.
Hi Chris I just sent you a message.
I think they hit 55 at once, once upon a time.
definitely get wrapped and sell as fasc. in this grading environment, you will not be happy with the results.
think about what that case may have gone through over the last 43 years...
how many times was it moved/relocated. dropped. shoved. leaned on. had stuff set on top of it.
the likelyhood of multiple 10's is almost zero.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
That's an excellent point. I think that the odds that the case has suffered some abuse during its lifetime is strong, and every bump, shake, transport, drop, lift to a shelf, shake around, causes those cards to move. And movement equals damage.
kevin
only one way to find out!
Maybe. Maybe not. I have plenty of stuff stored and unmoved for the past 25 to 30 years. Nothing ever suffered from movement or transportation. But, point taken here. The consensus is keep it intact and sell. I'm sure the OP is already putting those wheels in motion if it's going to happen.
I agree with others that the owner should keep the case intact and have Steve wrap it. I don't know why, but the "Pelican Bay find" has a nice ring to it. Maybe Steve can add that to the label.
buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball cards
also collecting US & Canadian silver coins
Can I parlay under and under and get about 2.2x odds on the million?
Love the way you think.
personally i would not open the case. getting harder and harder to find.
I say you have it cloned like Brady's dog and getcha another case.
Unquestionably under.
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
He's an investor in that company. Maybe he can make it happen, now that he's in the card business!
Perhaps a little more like the Star Trek replicator.
My cards on COMC
I'd definitely keep it sealed. As far as Steve is concerned, didn't his rep take a massive hit after the Logan Paul fiasco?
There are many stories on these boards where someone has opened a vending box of 500 cards from the 80's and didn't have one card out of 500 that was a candidate for PSA 10. I, too, think it would be incredibly difficult to get 5 PSA 10's out of only 100 cards.
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Nothing more than a pebble hitting the windshield.
for a bit, but it didnt stick. I dont think it is possible to have a 100% perfect record when it comes to authenticating anything. I think in that instance, he left his lane and attempted something he was not an expert in.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
If sent today expect 7-8s and maybe 5 9s . Also expect them even if centered to come back a 7 with possibly a damaged bottom corner. Best left as a unopened case. Don’t crack and send to psa unless you really hate money
I am a huge BBCE fan, however I need to ask why there would be much of a premium if these sets were wrapped FASC? The consensus is that the odds of getting a 10 are very low and a 9 is only slightly better. So the fact that the sets are wrapped doesn't change the fact that the odds of getting a PSA 10 are still very low.
Is it because of the "mystery box" premium?
I kind of think from a factory never seen or touched is kind of cool and on the same level as a 10 someone decided on a random day. They are only making 10s now and unopened keeps decreasing.
its the "gambling" aspect, I think. there could be a 10 in that wrapped box. The possibility is always there as long as you keep the wrap intact.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I agree about the possibility of a 10 hidden in the case adds to its appeal, and I want to add that the premium also is due to the rarity of the case. A PSA 10 Ripken is a pop 418, however an unsealed case like this might be a pop 10 or less.
buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball cards
also collecting US & Canadian silver coins
Your guy is a "huge Orioles fan". This is the key to the question to me. Also curious if he's wealthy. This guy hit a home run on an investment. Does he care about the money, or not?
First, to answer your question, you will get between 0 and 5 PSA 10's if you opened all 100 sets. My guess would be 2 or 3, but 0 or 1 is a strong possibility.
You wouldn't send in all 100 Ripkens, as some would be off center and some would show other defects.
PSA10 Ripkens go for $7,500.00 and PSA9's go for $600.00. HUGE disparity.
Sets on ebay go for around $300.00 each, and those are NOT sealed sets from a sealed case. Could you get $500.00 for such a set?
Here's what I would do;
Send the case in to authenticate it's a sealed case. If it is, offer it for sale at a minimum of $30,000.00. Maybe more.
Buy a PSA-10 Ripken (or 2 or 3) and end up with a nice pile of cash.
This might not be the "best" ROI, but still a huge profit, and the case, at least for now, is still sealed.
If he just has to do some ripping, at least get the individual sets sealed first. Then rip some and see how it goes. If he gets some beauties, STOP, send them in and see what PSA gives you. Then decide if you want to continue.
There's quite a few very, very wealthy collectors out there and a lot of crazy ones who don't care about keeping a rare case of cards intact. They can afford to HAVE FUN!
If he falls into this category, just go ahead and RIP THOSE SUCKERS!
All this money talk got me wondering about other cards in the set like Ozzie Smith or Reggie could pull a 10. What would that do to the calculation? Does anyone build PSA 10 sets? Registry? Maybe someone with a wider scope would take a greater risk. Just a thought.
Sure. There are currently 2 complete PSA reg sets of 25 total. There are 23 others maybe trying to make one. OF those 23 half have 2 cards total in the 132 card set. So yeah spend 22.00 plus sh to grade a 1982 Topps Tradded card and after many tries once you do get the 10 if you do enjoy the up charge.
Then there needs to be a massive outpouring of unwanted cash to make it happen. 😉
I agree with the above but I’ll add one thing. With the cash you have left after selling and buying 2-3 psa 10. Use the omoney to buy 100 psa 8s and crack them and send them all in like you busted a case. Hopefully you will now have 5-6 10s in total after the experience. Plus’s the other 97 Ripkens. Sounds fun oh and you will be left with no money but now have 103 ripkens and at least 2-3 will say10 on the label.
I don't recall exactly if it was pre or post COVID boom, but roughly 5 or 6 years ago, a guy came into my LCS with a partial case of 82TT sets, all with tape intact. The owner bought most of them, but left a few for those of us in the shop at the time to purchase, if we wanted. I bought one for $125, I believe.
I kept mine sealed, but the owner busted a few sets and sent in 3 out of those to PSA. I think he got 2 9s and a 7.
The owner sold me a 131/132 set that one of the 9s came from for me to put in my album raw for $15. I don't recall if the Ripken reprint was an official Topps release or an unlicensed repro, but I just wanted it to fill the empty space in my pages for visual purposes. It's easily discernible as fake in hand. The Reggie and Ozzie are nice.
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FAKE!!! FAKE!!! FAKE!!!
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i never got a 10. I bought around 8 sets for around $75 a piece. I got a bunch of 9's. maybe an 8. I picked up an 8.5 psa for $75 a while back. Never could get one centered enough to be a 10.
Lots of great info- thanks guys.