@RonSportscards said:
The big submitters like 4SC are devaluing collections by sheer high volume of submissions.
They are just a machine of ripping wax and vending and getting high gem rate returns, then flooding the market.
I see this with some 80s cards for the guy I collect, Ron Cey, for example.
I know he's no HOFer or highly collected Superstar, but the volume of submissions seem to have been ramped up.
The number of graded PSA10 of many of his 80s cards have nearly doubled since 2021
(gemrate.com records only go back to 2021).
One of the more dramatic examples is the 1986 Donruss Ron Cey.
The gem rate and number of submission remained unchanged from at least 2021 to 2024.
But in the last year alone, the number of graded PSA10s has doubled from 18 to 36!!
For the 1987 Topps Ron Cey, there's been a spike in the number of submissions in the last 1.5 years.
While the gem rate percentage reduced, the number of PSA10s, that didn't change from at least 2021-2024, has now more than doubled from 6 to 14.
This goes for early 1980s Ceys also.
For both 1981 Donruss and 1983 Fleer, submission have increased steadily over the last 4 years, but so has the number of graded PSA10s, doubling over just the last 4 years.
From 9 to 18 PSA10s for 1981 Donruss, and from 10 to 22 PSA10s for 1983 Fleer.
And card prices and card values have reflected that.
I don't know if this trend is happening with other lower tiered stars 1980s cards or commons.
they rip a lot because they know the results coming. it would a waste of time and doe for most of us. mainly 8 and 9 for us.imo.
Yes, Census Medians Must be Maintained
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972) Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
@bgr said:
If you don't like what someone has to say just picture them in their underwear or something like that...
I'd prefer to envision them waiting in line to use the restroom at Wrigley. That's a punishment. When finished, they can return to the seat with the obstructed view.
The 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan #57 PSA-10 has been selling for $200k+...recently.
When I sold mine in early 2023 (a retirement gift to myself purchased in February 2022 in a Heritage Auction and paid $10k over the going price at the time for a PSA-9...a couple people laughed on here that I overpaid for a PSA-9) after a review bump from a PSA-9 to a PSA-10...the card sold for $185k. Here is that card in a PSA-10 holder...
And here is the card in a PSA-9 holder from the Heritage Auction...along with a small description
Graded PSA Mint 9. Our offered card is a strong example of his 1986 Fleer card which has become a symbol that has come to represent the entire basketball hobby.
What caught my eye on this PSA-9 is the dead centering, bold colors and spot on registration which when the registration is off, there is a magenta color lining the cords of the white basketball net as well as along the top of Jordan's shoulder and arm.
@mintonlypls said:
The 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan #57 PSA-10 has been selling for $200k+...recently.
When I sold mine in early 2023 (a retirement gift to myself purchased in February 2022 in a Heritage Auction and paid $10k over the going price at the time for a PSA-9...a couple people laughed on here that I overpaid for a PSA-9) after a review bump from a PSA-9 to a PSA-10...the card sold for $185k. Here is that card in a PSA-10 holder...
And here is the card in a PSA-9 holder from the Heritage Auction...along with a small description
Graded PSA Mint 9. Our offered card is a strong example of his 1986 Fleer card which has become a symbol that has come to represent the entire basketball hobby.
What caught my eye on this PSA-9 is the dead centering, bold colors and spot on registration which when the registration is off, there is a magenta color lining the cords of the white basketball net as well as along the top of Jordan's shoulder and arm.
So do you think you would have tried to Diamond the 9 if the service was available instead of a review?
Do you think it's Diamond worthy now even in a 10?
There is nothing negative about posting facts on what cards sold for or pointing out all of the manipulation going on in the hobby. Playing devils advocate. Its a conversation, I have a different perspective on this stuff. I don’t take any of this stuff very seriously.
Generally I like your posts, always liked Dpecks as well, those Ric Flair threads were amazing.
@olb31 said:
not sure why 80opc's is so negative. you would think me and him would really get along because we like opc's,
Yes…I would have submitted the ‘86 Fleer Jordan for an online Diamond Review in a PSA-9….but not as a PSA-10. The percentage of 10s receiving a black diamond (10s only) is very, very small….and probably would not be a candidate in a 10 holder.
When I submitted the 9….I thought that there was a 50% chance of bumping to a 10…and I decided to take that chance after having the card in hand.
The review cost after the surcharge for bumping to a 10 was $5000….increasing my cost in the card to $40,000.
When you submitted in 2022 it appears to be just prior to the "changes". Do you feel if you submitted it in current times a grade bump to 10 would still occur on a 86 Jordan?
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972) Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
The card has dead centering, gorgeous color, spot-on registration and sharp corners that even today with stricter grading standards, I would submit it for review…and feel it would have a 50/50 chance of bumping to a PSA-10. The card does NOT look out of place in a 10-holder…even today.
@mintonlypls said:
Yes…I would have submitted the ‘86 Fleer Jordan for an online Diamond Review in a PSA-9….but not as a PSA-10. The percentage of 10s receiving a black diamond (10s only) is very, very small….and probably would not be a candidate in a 10 holder.
If you had submitted for Diamond as a 9 and it got a Gold Diamond, would you have then sent it in to PSA for a review?
Would you leave the Diamond sticker on? Do you think it influences (+ or -) PSAs views?
Silver and Gold Diamond are available for 10s also, not just Black.
Seems with such an iconic card, it would be a no-brainer to send in to try for any Diamond in a 10.
There's nothing really to lose at that point, and everything to gain.
@mintonlypls said:
The 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan #57 PSA-10 has been selling for $200k+...recently.
When I sold mine in early 2023 (a retirement gift to myself purchased in February 2022 in a Heritage Auction and paid $10k over the going price at the time for a PSA-9...a couple people laughed on here that I overpaid for a PSA-9) after a review bump from a PSA-9 to a PSA-10...the card sold for $185k. Here is that card in a PSA-10 holder...
And here is the card in a PSA-9 holder from the Heritage Auction...along with a small description
Graded PSA Mint 9. Our offered card is a strong example of his 1986 Fleer card which has become a symbol that has come to represent the entire basketball hobby.
What caught my eye on this PSA-9 is the dead centering, bold colors and spot on registration which when the registration is off, there is a magenta color lining the cords of the white basketball net as well as along the top of Jordan's shoulder and arm.
You won’t the lottery. Congratulations!!!
IMO the card is a nine. The white specks on the corners are almost always deducted.
Not trying to stir the pot. I am genuinely happy for you.
@mintonlypls said:
A PSA-10 is more valuable than a PSA-9 (MBA-Gold)
I'm aware. And a PSA 10 Diamond (silver/gold/black) is likely more valuable than a PSA 10.
And at such a minimal cost for a MBA digital review with much more to potentially gain, it seemed a no-brainer (to me) to include it in your MBA sub.
Clay Travis today - " This is one of the greatest years in the history of our nation (For many reasons I am not allowed to talk about on this forum without getting the shaft). The stock market has (all 3 indicies) reached all-time highs.
My stock portfolio is up 27% since April 5, 2025. OFF THE CHARTS!!
Clay Pigeon today - "This is one of the most terrifying years of my life while insurance rates continue to rise, food is more expensive than ever, and....oh look, construction."
@olb31 said:
Clay Travis today - " This is one of the greatest years in the history of our nation (For many reasons I am not allowed to talk about on this forum without getting the shaft). The stock market has (all 3 indicies) reached all-time highs.
My stock portfolio is up 27% since April 5, 2025. OFF THE CHARTS!!
Clay Travis today - " This is one of the greatest years in the history of our nation (For many reasons I am not allowed to talk about on this forum without getting the shaft). The stock market has (all 3 indicies) reached all-time highs.
My stock portfolio is up 27% since April 5, 2025. OFF THE CHARTS!!
Things are looking UP UP AND AWAY!!
We definitely had a scare in certain areas over the last 10 days. More of the variety of stuff that goes up 27% in a month or a week. Got very risk off sell it all for a little while. Saw Youtube videos where the young folks were going bankrupt, maybe while streaming, because their investments were so volatile and they probably were leveraged as much as they were allowed. Saw other videos where the younger people were predicting a Pokemon crash which I dont think would have been too significant but think all that is driven by meme stock and crypto gains so if that dries up, sure there is an impact.
It has been a nice last two days though so I am again optimistic and a bit comforted from a stock market perspective. Agreed since April has been outstanding time to invest especially in more speculative spaces. But plenty of more stable stuff doing very well. You have to keep a close eye on it though. Cant take too long of a nap in the middle of a market day.
@olb31 said:
Clay Travis today - " This is one of the greatest years in the history of our nation (For many reasons I am not allowed to talk about on this forum without getting the shaft). The stock market has (all 3 indicies) reached all-time highs.
My stock portfolio is up 27% since April 5, 2025. OFF THE CHARTS!!
Things are looking UP UP AND AWAY!!
Average price of a new car has also reached an all time high.
Clay Travis today - " This is one of the greatest years in the history of our nation (For many reasons I am not allowed to talk about on this forum without getting the shaft). The stock market has (all 3 indicies) reached all-time highs.
My stock portfolio is up 27% since April 5, 2025. OFF THE CHARTS!!
Things are looking UP UP AND AWAY!!
We definitely had a scare in certain areas over the last 10 days. More of the variety of stuff that goes up 27% in a month or a week. Got very risk off sell it all for a little while. Saw Youtube videos where the young folks were going bankrupt, maybe while streaming, because their investments were so volatile and they probably were leveraged as much as they were allowed. Saw other videos where the younger people were predicting a Pokemon crash which I dont think would have been too significant but think all that is driven by meme stock and crypto gains so if that dries up, sure there is an impact.
It has been a nice last two days though so I am again optimistic and a bit comforted from a stock market perspective. Agreed since April has been outstanding time to invest especially in more speculative spaces. But plenty of more stable stuff doing very well. You have to keep a close eye on it though. Cant take too long of a nap in the middle of a market day.
If the youngs are leveraging themselves to buy meme stocks (entirely likely in a market like this year) and Pokemon cards then all I can expect is that a lot of folks are about to learn some very expensive lessons. Good thing is they're young enough to rebuild.
We all have to learn them the hard way so I hope they're alright after.
Agreed. I learned my lesson in 1999/2000 in my 20s working in Tech Sales in the Dulles corridor around the great and powerful AOL. Looking at tech stocks and thinking this stuff just goes up and up and up. Oh its going down. Well, it will go back up again. Buy more.
I lost a few teeth then but many years later I have my smile back.
@UlyssesExtravaganza said:
Agreed. I learned my lesson in 1999/2000 in my 20s working in Tech Sales in the Dulles corridor around the great and powerful AOL. Looking at tech stocks and thinking this stuff just goes up and up and up. Oh its going down. Well, it will go back up again. Buy more.
I lost a few teeth then but many years later I have my smile back.
Man, those were the days. Until they weren't!!!
I learned my own lessons about the market back then that I still haven't forgotten.
two weeks after starting this thread the stock market hit a two year low. april 5 was around the low of the market. up 27% since. hmmm....2 $10 million dollar plus card sells and many other red hot sells. chantilly show by far the biggest and busiest i have ever been too and october is usually not the biggest one.
@olb31 said:
two weeks after starting this thread the stock market hit a two year low. april 5 was around the low of the market. up 27% since. hmmm....2 $10 million dollar plus card sells and many other red hot sells. chantilly show by far the biggest and busiest i have ever been too and october is usually not the biggest one.
You so want to say it. Just do it. Tell us why it’s so great.
'Tis the season for conflating. The stock market is built mostly on calculated reaction, the card market is built on hype and adrenal glands. They aren't linked. If the stock market plummets, it won't take cards with it. The invariables of interest in rarity will always win.
@olb31 said:
two weeks after starting this thread the stock market hit a two year low. april 5 was around the low of the market. up 27% since. hmmm....2 $10 million dollar plus card sells and many other red hot sells. chantilly show by far the biggest and busiest i have ever been too and october is usually not the biggest one.
You so want to say it. Just do it. Tell us why it’s so great.
Yep he's a itchin' to do it, full well knowing his 24 years here might end if he does. Kind of hoping to see him do it, wheres the popcorn eating emoji thing
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972) Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
Me either. What’s going on? Why is the economy so good and why are sports cards doing so well. I’m sure there’s something responsible for this Golden Age?
It's a strange time for sure. Stock market is riding AI advancements, whereas it feels like the average person is worse off. Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" comment comes to mind. If anyone follows Berkshire, they have spent the last couple of years shaving off some of the positions they have made a ton of money on, whereas they have not been buying as much, including their own shares. All that to imply that there are no good deals out there (including their own shares) and that the market is overvalued.
How that translates to sports cards, I don't know. The people who have the means to buy the rarest of the rare will continue to inhabit that space. I think the majority of people who are just riding an uptick, when there is a correction happens or market conditions soften, those are the first people to jump ship. I would anticipte all the new, shiny stuff that is being overproduced will suffer because the more casual person chasing making a buck might leave the space. Us older guys who are true collectors will never leave. I, for one, would welcome a pullback - it would allow a better ability to buy the stuff I like.
I dont see the stock market as a necessarily political situation. Of course if it is going well people in office and others want to attribute it to a party. Feel like you can do that more when it fails because its a people saying this was a mistake situation. The NAS was 1500 in 2009 and now its 23,000. For all the talk of bubble its not that different than it has been in the last 15 years and in my opinion, the increases are now more justifiable than ever.
In the early 2020s we had Zoom and Docusign and the digitization of America while people adapted to work from home. Then you had the reopening stocks like the cruise lines. In retrospect that seemed more bubbly or 1999 than now. AI and the data center is the reason the market is going up now and in my opinion it should be going up. You have such a dramatic spend amount going to a huge amount of companies and its not going to be a quick process. Long long buildout. Its also not a hoax, as if AI is all a pipe dream that wont work. Its being used successfully in money-saving profit-increasing ways. There is the money spent that helps companies win and then its the application of it that will help companies save money. Earnings are solid. Fundamentals for most companies are not completely out of whack and if so the growth and future guidance may justify it. Some businesses are going to not do well in this environment but I think this AI space has a long runway.
When it comes to cards think the high-end stuff will do well as long as you have two individuals with money and you always have that. I do think the TCG side is fueled by the young folks gains in their Robinhood accounts with crypto and speculative stocks. Maybe if sports cards more on the modern speculative side cause it can be the same game. Cash out on this and then FOMO after watching Yesavage pitch or this QB have a great game. I think those high Heritage final prices for scarce vintage are going to do well regardless but market success gives it a little kick.
And he is sitting on tons of cash, around 400b, one his largest cash positions, ever. He clearly is not as pumped about futures as OLB.
The big move to Gold is also not an indicator of faith in US markets. Quite the opposite.
Personally, I’m a believer in ‘never bet against the US’. SP 500 over long term cranks out 12% and that is good enough to see your money 4x every 12 years, which is good enough for this fella. Have kept my SP500 positions but not adding to them, and have a decent cash position. Markets are going to tip over at some point, this AI bubble is irrational and when markets move it won’t be due to politics. Markets are so mature, they influence politics more than the inverse.
Again, lots of data for folks interested in eliminating the noise. I’m not political, find it really helpful from an investing standpoint. Smart money makes money regardless of who is in seat.
Markets are going to tip over at some point, this AI bubble is irrational.
Why do you see it as irrational? I know there are lot of different opinions and respect a different opinion but I'm on the side of makes sense and justified. I feel the term bubble is getting thrown around regularly as a passing comment but not hearing a lot of people get down in the weeds on the case.
I hear a lot of feels like 1999. But the opposing thought is it feels like 1996. I mean I agree the markets tip at some point but when is that. And how much is a tip? Is it worth not investing now of it eventually tips? It used to be you expected two crashes, 10% dip, a year and it hurt like heck at the moment but if you could step back it was less of a big deal if it was countered by big increases over the year. If froth comes up off maybe it built up quite a bit.
I think you can absolutely have pockets of the markets that get bubbly and pop or deflate some. In the last 10 days you saw some of those guys get pounded but then Thursday Friday, back to their old upwards pattern.
Think the difference between 1999 and now is the core companies have fundamentals that are justifiable. In 1999 you had Toys.com and Pets.com sending 30 pound bags of cat litter and dog food with free shipping losing tons of money on every transaction. Now you look at the Mag 7 and trillion dollar companies and I dont feel most of them look to be way ahead of their skis.
On one hand... everyone is talking about AI these days. I don't encounter many people who understand what any of it is and what it does. In that sense this is very much a bubble. AI Mania.
On the other hand... Machine Learning, Neural Networks... The Foundational Classes that are being trained today are pretty important and we're just scratching the surface of what we can do. There's so much work to do in this area and the amount of compute necessary for delivery of advanced vision transformers is 10000x what is being used today for LLMs. The next step in bringing this technology to the benefit of society is to develop coherence in these systems. So, I would also caution to underestimate the transformational importance of the adoption of this technology. While AI has been around for almost 70 years now as a loose "umbrella" term, it wasn't really until 2017 that everything changed in how we could utilize it.
I think this revolution is certainly saving us from the harsh reality that would otherwise be.
Why is machine learning important? What do you think these systems are going to accomplish? It sounds like the pay off is putting people out of work.
In 1999 a lot of the companies popping up were being run by 20 year olds. In 1999 a lot of the business popping up had no idea how they were going to make money off of whatever it was they were making. Ironically many of the ones who survived ended up making money off annoying popups.
Comments
Yes, Census Medians Must be Maintained
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
Haha.
Too bad I turned the joke of wrestling cards into a Million dollar plus deal.
Having loads of cards rise over 100 X when dudes like you talked smack is very rewarding.
I stopped posting on here because of comments like this.
It was a pleasure to watch the @Dpeck saga. Glad you made out so well.
It has been incredible.
I popped in because I found that thread interesting but quickly reminded after reading this thread why I left.
not sure why 80opc's is so negative. you would think me and him would really get along because we like opc's,
If you don't like what someone has to say just picture them in their underwear or something like that...
I'd prefer to envision them waiting in line to use the restroom at Wrigley. That's a punishment. When finished, they can return to the seat with the obstructed view.
The 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan #57 PSA-10 has been selling for $200k+...recently.
When I sold mine in early 2023 (a retirement gift to myself purchased in February 2022 in a Heritage Auction and paid $10k over the going price at the time for a PSA-9...a couple people laughed on here that I overpaid for a PSA-9) after a review bump from a PSA-9 to a PSA-10...the card sold for $185k. Here is that card in a PSA-10 holder...
And here is the card in a PSA-9 holder from the Heritage Auction...along with a small description
Graded PSA Mint 9. Our offered card is a strong example of his 1986 Fleer card which has become a symbol that has come to represent the entire basketball hobby.
What caught my eye on this PSA-9 is the dead centering, bold colors and spot on registration which when the registration is off, there is a magenta color lining the cords of the white basketball net as well as along the top of Jordan's shoulder and arm.
So do you think you would have tried to Diamond the 9 if the service was available instead of a review?
Do you think it's Diamond worthy now even in a 10?
There is nothing negative about posting facts on what cards sold for or pointing out all of the manipulation going on in the hobby. Playing devils advocate. Its a conversation, I have a different perspective on this stuff. I don’t take any of this stuff very seriously.
Generally I like your posts, always liked Dpecks as well, those Ric Flair threads were amazing.
Yes…I would have submitted the ‘86 Fleer Jordan for an online Diamond Review in a PSA-9….but not as a PSA-10. The percentage of 10s receiving a black diamond (10s only) is very, very small….and probably would not be a candidate in a 10 holder.
When I submitted the 9….I thought that there was a 50% chance of bumping to a 10…and I decided to take that chance after having the card in hand.
The review cost after the surcharge for bumping to a 10 was $5000….increasing my cost in the card to $40,000.
When you submitted in 2022 it appears to be just prior to the "changes". Do you feel if you submitted it in current times a grade bump to 10 would still occur on a 86 Jordan?
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
The card has dead centering, gorgeous color, spot-on registration and sharp corners that even today with stricter grading standards, I would submit it for review…and feel it would have a 50/50 chance of bumping to a PSA-10. The card does NOT look out of place in a 10-holder…even today.
Why was it ever in a PSA 9 slab? Is PSA inept at… grading?
If you had submitted for Diamond as a 9 and it got a Gold Diamond, would you have then sent it in to PSA for a review?
Would you leave the Diamond sticker on? Do you think it influences (+ or -) PSAs views?
Silver and Gold Diamond are available for 10s also, not just Black.
Seems with such an iconic card, it would be a no-brainer to send in to try for any Diamond in a 10.
There's nothing really to lose at that point, and everything to gain.
A PSA-10 is more valuable than a PSA-9 (MBA-Gold)…so it’s a no brainer to send the card to PSA for review.
I don’t think a sticker influences a PSA grader.
You won’t the lottery. Congratulations!!!
IMO the card is a nine. The white specks on the corners are almost always deducted.
Not trying to stir the pot. I am genuinely happy for you.
He literally maxxed out the card and still come the what if’s for the most glamorous bump the forum has probably ever seen.
I never like to critique what folks pay for things because their intentions are their own and often different than ‘just get the cheapest price’.
If it’s something I really want I’ll pay whatever I want.
I'm aware. And a PSA 10 Diamond (silver/gold/black) is likely more valuable than a PSA 10.
And at such a minimal cost for a MBA digital review with much more to potentially gain, it seemed a no-brainer (to me) to include it in your MBA sub.
Clay Travis today - " This is one of the greatest years in the history of our nation (For many reasons I am not allowed to talk about on this forum without getting the shaft). The stock market has (all 3 indicies) reached all-time highs.
My stock portfolio is up 27% since April 5, 2025. OFF THE CHARTS!!
Things are looking UP UP AND AWAY!!
Nice I heard bread went down the other day.
Clay Pigeon today - "This is one of the most terrifying years of my life while insurance rates continue to rise, food is more expensive than ever, and....oh look, construction."
Says the guy easily duped by this Pic.
.
Can you show the back of the Ryan? You don't see them centered that nicely often. I'm a buyer.
I'm l> @olb31 said:
We definitely had a scare in certain areas over the last 10 days. More of the variety of stuff that goes up 27% in a month or a week. Got very risk off sell it all for a little while. Saw Youtube videos where the young folks were going bankrupt, maybe while streaming, because their investments were so volatile and they probably were leveraged as much as they were allowed. Saw other videos where the younger people were predicting a Pokemon crash which I dont think would have been too significant but think all that is driven by meme stock and crypto gains so if that dries up, sure there is an impact.
It has been a nice last two days though so I am again optimistic and a bit comforted from a stock market perspective. Agreed since April has been outstanding time to invest especially in more speculative spaces. But plenty of more stable stuff doing very well. You have to keep a close eye on it though. Cant take too long of a nap in the middle of a market day.
.
Average price of a new car has also reached an all time high.
If the youngs are leveraging themselves to buy meme stocks (entirely likely in a market like this year) and Pokemon cards then all I can expect is that a lot of folks are about to learn some very expensive lessons. Good thing is they're young enough to rebuild.
We all have to learn them the hard way so I hope they're alright after.
Agreed. I learned my lesson in 1999/2000 in my 20s working in Tech Sales in the Dulles corridor around the great and powerful AOL. Looking at tech stocks and thinking this stuff just goes up and up and up. Oh its going down. Well, it will go back up again. Buy more.
I lost a few teeth then but many years later I have my smile back.
Man, those were the days. Until they weren't!!!
I learned my own lessons about the market back then that I still haven't forgotten.
two weeks after starting this thread the stock market hit a two year low. april 5 was around the low of the market. up 27% since. hmmm....2 $10 million dollar plus card sells and many other red hot sells. chantilly show by far the biggest and busiest i have ever been too and october is usually not the biggest one.
You so want to say it. Just do it. Tell us why it’s so great.
'Tis the season for conflating. The stock market is built mostly on calculated reaction, the card market is built on hype and adrenal glands. They aren't linked. If the stock market plummets, it won't take cards with it. The invariables of interest in rarity will always win.
Yep he's a itchin' to do it, full well knowing his 24 years here might end if he does. Kind of hoping to see him do it, wheres the popcorn eating emoji thing
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
Not sure what you guys are talking about and why can't a poster say what's on his mind?
No Politics is the rule. Which i'm guessing you knew already.
Are you also chompin' at bit to spew that stuff out here as well?
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
Relax Francis. I had no idea which is why I'm asking.
Me either. What’s going on? Why is the economy so good and why are sports cards doing so well. I’m sure there’s something responsible for this Golden Age?
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
We are in a 5 year everything bubble. The SP500 YTD is 15%, 5 year is 95%. GDP, jobs below the 5 year average.
Any reasonable account of 2025 is average/below recent average.
For folks that care about data.
It's a strange time for sure. Stock market is riding AI advancements, whereas it feels like the average person is worse off. Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" comment comes to mind. If anyone follows Berkshire, they have spent the last couple of years shaving off some of the positions they have made a ton of money on, whereas they have not been buying as much, including their own shares. All that to imply that there are no good deals out there (including their own shares) and that the market is overvalued.
How that translates to sports cards, I don't know. The people who have the means to buy the rarest of the rare will continue to inhabit that space. I think the majority of people who are just riding an uptick, when there is a correction happens or market conditions soften, those are the first people to jump ship. I would anticipte all the new, shiny stuff that is being overproduced will suffer because the more casual person chasing making a buck might leave the space. Us older guys who are true collectors will never leave. I, for one, would welcome a pullback - it would allow a better ability to buy the stuff I like.
I dont see the stock market as a necessarily political situation. Of course if it is going well people in office and others want to attribute it to a party. Feel like you can do that more when it fails because its a people saying this was a mistake situation. The NAS was 1500 in 2009 and now its 23,000. For all the talk of bubble its not that different than it has been in the last 15 years and in my opinion, the increases are now more justifiable than ever.
In the early 2020s we had Zoom and Docusign and the digitization of America while people adapted to work from home. Then you had the reopening stocks like the cruise lines. In retrospect that seemed more bubbly or 1999 than now. AI and the data center is the reason the market is going up now and in my opinion it should be going up. You have such a dramatic spend amount going to a huge amount of companies and its not going to be a quick process. Long long buildout. Its also not a hoax, as if AI is all a pipe dream that wont work. Its being used successfully in money-saving profit-increasing ways. There is the money spent that helps companies win and then its the application of it that will help companies save money. Earnings are solid. Fundamentals for most companies are not completely out of whack and if so the growth and future guidance may justify it. Some businesses are going to not do well in this environment but I think this AI space has a long runway.
When it comes to cards think the high-end stuff will do well as long as you have two individuals with money and you always have that. I do think the TCG side is fueled by the young folks gains in their Robinhood accounts with crypto and speculative stocks. Maybe if sports cards more on the modern speculative side cause it can be the same game. Cash out on this and then FOMO after watching Yesavage pitch or this QB have a great game. I think those high Heritage final prices for scarce vintage are going to do well regardless but market success gives it a little kick.
Solid post. Good job Ulysses.
Follow Berkshire. Yup. Better yet, follow Buffett theory. Works wonders for the soul.
This might be the smartest post ever.
Not Dan Ives? 😂
And he is sitting on tons of cash, around 400b, one his largest cash positions, ever. He clearly is not as pumped about futures as OLB.
The big move to Gold is also not an indicator of faith in US markets. Quite the opposite.
Personally, I’m a believer in ‘never bet against the US’. SP 500 over long term cranks out 12% and that is good enough to see your money 4x every 12 years, which is good enough for this fella. Have kept my SP500 positions but not adding to them, and have a decent cash position. Markets are going to tip over at some point, this AI bubble is irrational and when markets move it won’t be due to politics. Markets are so mature, they influence politics more than the inverse.
Again, lots of data for folks interested in eliminating the noise. I’m not political, find it really helpful from an investing standpoint. Smart money makes money regardless of who is in seat.
Markets are going to tip over at some point, this AI bubble is irrational.
Why do you see it as irrational? I know there are lot of different opinions and respect a different opinion but I'm on the side of makes sense and justified. I feel the term bubble is getting thrown around regularly as a passing comment but not hearing a lot of people get down in the weeds on the case.
I hear a lot of feels like 1999. But the opposing thought is it feels like 1996. I mean I agree the markets tip at some point but when is that. And how much is a tip? Is it worth not investing now of it eventually tips? It used to be you expected two crashes, 10% dip, a year and it hurt like heck at the moment but if you could step back it was less of a big deal if it was countered by big increases over the year. If froth comes up off maybe it built up quite a bit.
I think you can absolutely have pockets of the markets that get bubbly and pop or deflate some. In the last 10 days you saw some of those guys get pounded but then Thursday Friday, back to their old upwards pattern.
Think the difference between 1999 and now is the core companies have fundamentals that are justifiable. In 1999 you had Toys.com and Pets.com sending 30 pound bags of cat litter and dog food with free shipping losing tons of money on every transaction. Now you look at the Mag 7 and trillion dollar companies and I dont feel most of them look to be way ahead of their skis.
On one hand... everyone is talking about AI these days. I don't encounter many people who understand what any of it is and what it does. In that sense this is very much a bubble. AI Mania.
On the other hand... Machine Learning, Neural Networks... The Foundational Classes that are being trained today are pretty important and we're just scratching the surface of what we can do. There's so much work to do in this area and the amount of compute necessary for delivery of advanced vision transformers is 10000x what is being used today for LLMs. The next step in bringing this technology to the benefit of society is to develop coherence in these systems. So, I would also caution to underestimate the transformational importance of the adoption of this technology. While AI has been around for almost 70 years now as a loose "umbrella" term, it wasn't really until 2017 that everything changed in how we could utilize it.
I think this revolution is certainly saving us from the harsh reality that would otherwise be.
Why is machine learning important? What do you think these systems are going to accomplish? It sounds like the pay off is putting people out of work.
In 1999 a lot of the companies popping up were being run by 20 year olds. In 1999 a lot of the business popping up had no idea how they were going to make money off of whatever it was they were making. Ironically many of the ones who survived ended up making money off annoying popups.