Buy/Sell/or Hold at $4k/$50?

johnnyb · October 10, 2025 6:28PM

I’m not a big player but I’ve quietly been buying over the last ten years. The last year has been epic. I’m happy with what I’ve accumulated and I am somewhere between keep buying or holding, but definitely don’t want to sell unless desperate. Curious for other opinions. I mainly stacked 90% and old British sovereigns.

And congrats to the stackers at all-time highs.

MsMorrisine · October 10, 2025 6:36PM

but definitely don’t want to sell unless desperate.

you've answered your own question

Manorcourtman · October 10, 2025 7:38PM

HOLD

jmski52 · October 10, 2025 8:18PM

The world is moving away from dollars and debt, towards physical assets as collateral. That direction isn't going to change anytime soon. My advice would be to continue quietly accumulating and keep track of your average costs. As the numbers get larger, two things will happen:

1) Your dollars will buy fewer and fewer ounces.
2) Your savings will look better and better.

Lastly, keep a 6 month or 12 month cash cushion so that you aren't forced to liquidate unless it's for a good reason.

roadrunner · October 10, 2025 10:54PM

The eventual prices for gold/silver will probably be $5K-$10K / $100-$300 over the next 1-6 years....or even higher for gold depending on how crazy the "reset" becomes. There may be a considerable correction coming this year or by mid-next year. But, Armstrong doesn't have the economic confidence cycle peaking until August 2028. The real shake out and revaluations in the world economies and currencies isn't for a few more years. Still early. But the dips could try your soul.....similar to summer/fall 2008.

There will be ups and downs. But the eventual peak will be considerably higher, and not for at least 3 yrs....and possibly 4-6 years. The Gold to Silver ratio eventually should drop to 35-55. Currently around 80. Lots more room for silver.

PerryHall · October 11, 2025 1:13AM

Mostly hold but I'll buy if a good deal comes along. I like US gold near melt value because as the gold spot price continues to rise, the numismatic premium for gold coins will continue to erode.

tincup · October 11, 2025 7:11AM

Mostly hold... but buy when good opportunity presents itself. Also, perhaps sell to just weed out some lower type items.
The way I look at it... if you aren't desperate, or need the money / cash flow for bills, etc.... why sell? Let's just wait and see where this goes....

johnny9434 · October 11, 2025 9:38AM

Hold

Wingsrule · October 11, 2025 10:00AM

So much depends on your personal situation. If all your bills are current and you have money set aside for emergencies, great. If you’re paying 21% interest on credit card debt, not so great.

derryb · October 11, 2025 10:44AM

better to try to sell silver at $50 on its way up rather than try to sell at $48 on its way down. Recoup your investment, hold the remainder for profit. I personally am converting my physical into AGQ and UGL as I believe prices will be much higher. My primary reason for selling physical now is to save my heirs the hassle of doing it themselves. Over the decades my physical has done its job - protect the value of the dollars that I eventually turn it into. While some will point to assets with a better investment return, PMs have offered me what I wanted with near zero risk.

rte592 · October 11, 2025 12:23PM

@derryb said:
better to try to sell silver at $50 on its way up rather than try to sell at $48 on its way down. Recoup your investment, hold the remainder for profit. I personally am converting my physical into AGQ and UGL as I believe prices will be much higher. My primary reason for selling physical now is to save my heirs the hassle of doing it themselves. Over the decades my physical has done its job - protect the value of the dollars that I eventually turn it into. While some will point to assets with a better investment return, PMs have offered me what I wanted with near zero risk.

Agree,
I watched the last show...yeah this one is different and I'm 15 years older
I'm looking for $55/$60 and looking to sell off some lesser collectables.
My save a vintage bar when I see it for the last 25 years has done me well... hindsight and all, should have eaten less and bought more
Gold is in the hillside on both claims the saying about being a millionaire, BUT just have to get it out of the ground IS A thing
Maybe sell some silver and pick up another piece of mining equipment?
I already got a new pair of hiking boots

RobM · October 11, 2025 7:27PM

@derryb said:
better to try to sell silver at $50 on its way up rather than try to sell at $48 on its way down. Recoup your investment, hold the remainder for profit. I personally am converting my physical into AGQ and UGL as I believe prices will be much higher. My primary reason for selling physical now is to save my heirs the hassle of doing it themselves.

The AGQ and UGL strategy is an idea that you should reconsider. You simply will not enhance any gains over the longer term in a leveraged fund even if the underlying asset generally increases in price. Short term, days to weeks, maybe, but not longer due to volatility drag. Better to just follow Yukon Cornelius and buy SLV and GLD. In particular, since silver price is quite volatile, ACQ performance is horrendous. While UGL chart isn't nearly as bad long term, it hasn't outperformed GLD over any significant length of time. If you are in and out quickly like Blitzen, sure , but I'm sure Donner isn't putting Rudolph's inheritance into either ACQ or UGL.

asheland · October 11, 2025 7:51PM

I’m holding everything I have, slowly buying if something interesting comes along, for now I’m selling nothing!

derryb · October 11, 2025 8:41PM

@RobM said:

@derryb said:
better to try to sell silver at $50 on its way up rather than try to sell at $48 on its way down. Recoup your investment, hold the remainder for profit. I personally am converting my physical into AGQ and UGL as I believe prices will be much higher. My primary reason for selling physical now is to save my heirs the hassle of doing it themselves.

The AGQ and UGL strategy is an idea that you should reconsider. You simply will not enhance any gains over the longer term in a leveraged fund even if the underlying asset generally increases in price. Short term, days to weeks, maybe, but not longer due to volatility drag. Better to just follow Yukon Cornelius and buy SLV and GLD. In particular, since silver price is quite volatile, ACQ performance is horrendous. While UGL chart isn't nearly as bad long term, it hasn't outperformed GLD over any significant length of time. If you are in and out quickly like Blitzen, sure , but I'm sure Donner isn't putting Rudolph's inheritance into either ACQ or UGL.

Both AGQ and UGL have turned in nearly twice the performance of physical prices. In the face of rising PM spot prices, AGQ and UGL offer about twice the returns. And yes a decline in spot will provide twice the losses; more the reason to monitor closely, buy the dips and sell the highs. As long as the future for gold and silver remain bright, so does the future of their leveraged alternatives.

Your advice I'm sure is based on known "decay" with some ETF products that eats profits over the period held. Fortunately, PM price momentum has been so great it is negating the cost of any decay as the charts well demonstrate.

Performance of SLV and GLD over same 10.5 month period. Percent gain does not come close to the two above leveraged versions.

RedneckHB · October 12, 2025 5:50AM

@derryb said:
better to try to sell silver at $50 on its way up rather than try to sell at $48 on its way down. Recoup your investment, hold the remainder for profit. I personally am converting my physical into AGQ and UGL as I believe prices will be much higher. My primary reason for selling physical now is to save my heirs the hassle of doing it themselves. Over the decades my physical has done its job - protect the value of the dollars that I eventually turn it into. While some will point to assets with a better investment return, PMs have offered me what I wanted with near zero risk.

From paper buyers are fools to im only buying leveraged paper. Wow!!

TwoSides2aCoin · October 12, 2025 7:46AM

Keep stacking. It’s real money.

GoldFinger1969 · October 12, 2025 8:28AM

@roadrunner said:
The eventual prices for gold/silver will probably be $5K-$10K / $100-$300 over the next 1-6 years....or even higher >for gold depending on how crazy the "reset" becomes. There may be a considerable correction coming this year or >by mid-next year. But, Armstrong doesn't have the economic confidence cycle peaking until August 2028. The real >shake out and revaluations in the world economies and currencies isn't for a few more years. Still early. But the >dips could try your soul.....similar to summer/fall 2008.

Not sure of his track record with PMs, with stocks its mediocre. I do think gold and silver -- esp. gold -- are going higher but gradually and over time. If we get a sharp rise and blow-off top, it could be a multi-year peak like in January 1980 or August 2011.

There will be ups and downs. But the eventual peak will be considerably higher, and not for at least 3 yrs....and >possibly 4-6 years. The Gold to Silver ratio eventually should drop to 35-55. Currently around 80. Lots more room >for silver.

I think historical ratios coming out of the fixed decades of 1930's-1960's should not be relied on. I would expect the gold/silver ratio to not drop anywhere that low and if anything go higher.

derryb · October 12, 2025 11:48AM

@RedneckHB said:

@derryb said:
better to try to sell silver at $50 on its way up rather than try to sell at $48 on its way down. Recoup your investment, hold the remainder for profit. I personally am converting my physical into AGQ and UGL as I believe prices will be much higher. My primary reason for selling physical now is to save my heirs the hassle of doing it themselves. Over the decades my physical has done its job - protect the value of the dollars that I eventually turn it into. While some will point to assets with a better investment return, PMs have offered me what I wanted with near zero risk.

From paper buyers are fools to im only buying leveraged paper. Wow!!

And I quote: "My primary reason for selling physical now is to save my heirs the hassle of doing it themselves."

Better to park it climbing PM paper than in your fave dollars. I never said paper buyers were fools. I have played the PM ETFs since they first appeared, have said so on the forum and have advised others that choose to do so to do it carefully and monitor their holdings.

The only fool here is the one who continues to misquote others.

pmh1nic · October 12, 2025 11:52AM

For the last year I’ve been holding other than buying something I liked even if I had to pay a premium. I paid $33 - $38 on some coins where I liked the design, not expecting to be ahead of the game any time soon. Lo and behold we’re at $50 LOL.

I’m not adverse to taking profits assuming you have somewhere to put the gain that is secure and where you might realize further gains. So other than being in a desperate situation I hold the stack.

RedneckHB · October 12, 2025 2:32PM

@derryb said:

From paper buyers are fools to im only buying leveraged paper. Wow!!

And I quote: "My primary reason for selling physical now is to save my heirs the hassle of doing it themselves."

I sincerely hope you are not planning on departing us soon. If not, then why the change now? Why not wait until physical hits 200-300 as some on here have predicted?

Are you expecting a quick decline? Or do expect a quick and steep rally and limited ability to get out of physical?

Are you going to leave your heirs a leveraged ETF? Or will you liquidate and convert to dollars?

DNADave · October 12, 2025 2:40PM

Hold. Buy if you find a great deal.

Downtown1974 · October 12, 2025 2:59PM

Holding gold but not buying.
Holding silver but buying.
I’ve been finding PCGS/NGC common date Morgan and Peace dollars in MS63/64 that were getting $75+ when silver was $30, I’ve been getting them for $45-$55. I’m scooping those up when I can.

Here’s one I picked up not too long ago. $35…..I’ll take them all please.

dcarr · October 12, 2025 5:00PM

@Downtown1974 said:
Holding gold but not buying.
Holding silver but buying.
I’ve been finding PCGS/NGC common date Morgan and Peace dollars in MS63/64 that were getting $75+ when silver was $30, I’ve been getting them for $45-$55. I’m scooping those up when I can.

Here’s one I picked up not too long ago. $35…..I’ll take them all please.

.

That is a great price (for the buyer, not the seller) !

.

derryb · October 12, 2025 5:18PM

@RedneckHB said:

@derryb said:

From paper buyers are fools to im only buying leveraged paper. Wow!!

And I quote: "My primary reason for selling physical now is to save my heirs the hassle of doing it themselves."

I sincerely hope you are not planning on departing us soon. If not, then why the change now? Why not wait until physical hits 200-300 as some on here have predicted?

Are you expecting a quick decline? Or do expect a quick and steep rally and limited ability to get out of physical?

Are you going to leave your heirs a leveraged ETF? Or will you liquidate and convert to dollars?

Nunya

roadrunner · October 12, 2025 7:49PM

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@roadrunner said:
.similar to summer/fall 2008.

Not sure of his track record with PMs, with stocks its mediocre. I do think gold and silver -- esp. gold -- are going higher but gradually and over time. If we get a sharp rise and blow-off top, it could be a multi-year peak like in January 1980 or August 2011.

There will be ups and downs. But the eventual peak will be considerably higher, and not for at least 3 yrs....and >possibly 4-6 years. The Gold to Silver ratio eventually should drop to 35-55. Currently around 80. Lots more room >for silver.

I think historical ratios coming out of the fixed decades of 1930's-1960's should not be relied on. I would expect the gold/silver ratio to not drop anywhere that low and if anything go higher.

Armstrong hasn't traded stocks in many years. His expertise is in forecasting capital money flows and significant geo-political turning points....and advising corporations, governments, and large investors on that. The next major LOW for the business or econ. confidence cycle in August 2028. That model has nailed the major gold moves since 1999.

GSR at 55 was a support point over the past 25 yrs. I have a good feeling that it will get hit again. And 45 is another major support. I would agree that GSR has had trouble breaking below the 83 support point for quite some time. Silver is often late to the ball game though. GSR has a central trading range of 45-83 over the past 17 yrs. It's back under 80 and has been clinging to the bottom of the up channel for 4 years. If it breaks down from the up channel....45/55 are reasonable targets. Following the 2020 GSR peak it looks to me like GSR is in a corrective ABC pattern with the C leg possibly just beginning. 73 is the next key Support/Resistance line going back 10 yrs. If that breaches, it's headed to the 50's. The 83 support/resistance line goes back 20 yrs. IF GSR manages to go back above that with any strength, then more problems for silver. I'm watching that lower "projection" ARROW formed by the bottom of the 2015-2020 rising wedge.

RedneckHB · October 13, 2025 4:04AM

@derryb said:

@RedneckHB said:

@derryb said:

From paper buyers are fools to im only buying leveraged paper. Wow!!

And I quote: "My primary reason for selling physical now is to save my heirs the hassle of doing it themselves."

I sincerely hope you are not planning on departing us soon. If not, then why the change now? Why not wait until physical hits 200-300 as some on here have predicted?

Are you expecting a quick decline? Or do expect a quick and steep rally and limited ability to get out of physical?

Are you going to leave your heirs a leveraged ETF? Or will you liquidate and convert to dollars?

Nunya

So FOS.

blitzdude · October 13, 2025 2:55PM

Nice close. Where do they go from here? Any dealers/refiners buying? I know they still are for The Metal of Kings although, I am not sure if they are buying anything else. RGDS!

jmski52 · October 13, 2025 5:07PM

Silver, up 4.77%.

Overdate · October 13, 2025 9:52PM

@derryb said:

@RobM said:

@derryb said:
better to try to sell silver at $50 on its way up rather than try to sell at $48 on its way down. Recoup your investment, hold the remainder for profit. I personally am converting my physical into AGQ and UGL as I believe prices will be much higher. My primary reason for selling physical now is to save my heirs the hassle of doing it themselves.

The AGQ and UGL strategy is an idea that you should reconsider. You simply will not enhance any gains over the longer term in a leveraged fund even if the underlying asset generally increases in price. Short term, days to weeks, maybe, but not longer due to volatility drag. Better to just follow Yukon Cornelius and buy SLV and GLD. In particular, since silver price is quite volatile, ACQ performance is horrendous. While UGL chart isn't nearly as bad long term, it hasn't outperformed GLD over any significant length of time. If you are in and out quickly like Blitzen, sure , but I'm sure Donner isn't putting Rudolph's inheritance into either ACQ or UGL.

Both AGQ and UGL have turned in nearly twice the performance of physical prices. In the face of rising PM spot prices, AGQ and UGL offer about twice the returns. And yes a decline in spot will provide twice the losses; more the reason to monitor closely, buy the dips and sell the highs. As long as the future for gold and silver remain bright, so does the future of their leveraged alternatives.

Your advice I'm sure is based on known "decay" with some ETF products that eats profits over the period held. Fortunately, PM price momentum has been so great it is negating the cost of any decay as the charts well demonstrate.

Performance of SLV and GLD over same 10.5 month period. Percent gain does not come close to the two above leveraged versions.

Replace your YTD charts with 5-year charts and the difference is stark. SLV has quadrupled during the last 5 years, while AGQ has merely doubled. What's more, AGQ's doubling has occurred only during the last six months - AGQ was mostly flat or underwater in the preceding four-and-a-half years. SLV and SIVR generate much higher returns with less risk over the long term IMO.

derryb · October 14, 2025 1:30AM

@Overdate said:

Replace your YTD charts with 5-year charts and the difference is stark. SLV has quadrupled during the last 5 years, while AGQ has merely doubled. What's more, AGQ's doubling has occurred only during the last six months - AGQ was mostly flat or underwater in the preceding four-and-a-half years. SLV and SIVR generate much higher returns with less risk over the long term IMO.

If you held those leveraged ETFs for five years you were a fool. The year to date chart comparison was just that, a comparison of the two since the two metals "took off."

Overdate · October 14, 2025 3:00AM

@derryb
You're quoting someone else, not me.

Over a short period, leveraged ETFs can "perform greatly over their non-leveraged counterparts." But they can also underperform their non-leveraged counterparts greatly, with disastrous results, You need to be a near-perfect market timer to profit from short-term swings in leveraged ETFs. The rapid rise from $3000 to $4000 was an unexpected anomaly that had few precedents. Did you predict this outcome six months ago?

derryb · October 14, 2025 3:47AM

apologies, corrected

Dave99B · October 14, 2025 11:42AM

I'm still buying (primarily 90%), but my buying has slowed quite a bit. Like you, I've been buying for years. I'm holding for now, hoping we see some stability.

Dave

jmski52 · October 14, 2025 11:51AM

I'm still buying (primarily 90%), but my buying has slowed quite a bit. Like you, I've been buying for years. I'm holding for now, hoping we see some stability.

You won't be sorry, and after all - it's not a race. If you've been stacking for years, you know what I mean. It's all good.

JWP · October 26, 2025 8:11PM

@PerryHall said:
Mostly hold but I'll buy if a good deal comes along. I like US gold near melt value because as the gold spot price continues to rise, the numismatic premium for gold coins will continue to erode.

I agree with what Perry Hall said

JimTyler · October 26, 2025 10:15PM

Sell some to lower out of pocket on the rest.

OPA · October 27, 2025 10:09AM

Having gone through the 2011 fiasco, I've been selling silver since the beginning of this year. As the sayings go, "you never go broke taking a profit and what goes up will come down."

Buy/Sell/or Hold at $4k/$50?

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