20% growth in chopmarked trade dollar population in past 2.5 years
BlueSofa
Posts: 21 ✭✭
Back in February 2023, I jotted down the PCGS pop data for Chopmarked trade dollars by year/mint. Inspired by a recent post with historical pop reports, I was curious to compare my 2023 pop data for Chopmarked trades to current figures as of this month and was surprised to see how many new examples have been graded relative to overall pop census in such a short time.
Note I removed 76-cc as it was likely recorded erroneously with a couple varieties included and was too high.
It came as a surprise to me that essentially one in five chopmarked trade dollars today in PCGS plastic (with numerical rather than details grades to be counted in the pop) was slabbed in the past 2.5 years. Possibly due to a rise in PCGS Asia business or just popularity of the series.
Interesting that 73-S has become relatively more available, and that new Carson City and Philly examples have been added at a slower clip compared to San Francisco coins (other than 77-P).
Comments
I am not surprised. I suspect that if the population of chop marked similarly situated World coins, one would likely see something comparable. I like these as there is a compelling story behind them.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I might be wrong and this is just from gleaning things off this board, but…didn’t PCGS only start straight grading chopmarked trade dollars recently (and I don’t know what recently means, just that they haven’t always).
If this is right, then there’s a backlog of ungraded or details graded coins that has to be sorted out over time into straight graded holders.
Again, following the same logic train, big moves, percentage-wise in pops makes sense while the sorting out is happening.
Unrelated to that, I also think they’re becoming more popular.
They started when I gave them my trade dollar set for display in the early 2000s. HRH asked me if I thought they should start grading the choppies since they had my set of those too. The rest is history
There we go! TDN confirms I’ve almost learned something on the boards!
So, let’s say 20 years ago, a little bit of a slow roll to start with or slight lull in the middle, and 20% in 2.5yrs looks right on target.
I track every single public auction of these coins at HA/SB/GC and have for a couple of years. Indisputably, the rise in grading events is due to greater outflow from PCGS Asia.
Unfortunately, their grading standards seem to be much different and (IMO) significantly looser/worse than PCGS America. There are some nice coins but many very problematic coins in numerically graded holders (and that's coming from someone who collects damaged coins).
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
How do I submit to PCGS Asia?
Think Chops rightfully belong in holders. Just evidence they served their intended purpose.
Given the lack of any known (to me) list of recognized Shroffs’ marks, is it known how PCGS determines which particular chops are genuine? Ask given today's world.....
Being able to match chops with specific shroffs/merchants is one of the great white whales of chopmark collecting. It is currently not possible and is unlikely to be accomplished in the future. (The other whale being to locate original chop tools.)
PCGS does NOT verify the authenticity of the chops themselves. There are many, many coins with questionable or downright fake chops in PCGS (and NGC and ANACS) holders.
As an example, this coin is currently at auction at SB. On top of 73-CC being a difficult key date, this coin is a rare MPD that I badly want for my variety set. Unfortunately, the chop is fake. It was likely placed there to distract from the other surface issues or because at one point in history, chopmarked T$s sold for more than non-chopped examples.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
Thank you
It's somewhat interesting that PCGS puts chopmarked Trade Dollars in problem-free holders, but not world coins. I know in some areas chopmarks are really looked down upon, such as the Chinese market for Chinese Dollars. But for consistency, why not allow for all coins with chopmarks?
And the concept of grading World Coins with Chop Marks should be relatively straight forward. Designate Chop marks followed by a grade. There can obviously be a separate population account for chop marked coinage. I think there would be significant advantages to doing this in that it will help track the existing population of various coins at specific states of preservation. As an example, I suspect that there are collectors that have an interest in the surviving population of British Trade Dollars as well as the Mexican 8 Reales among others.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
@lermish - what are the diagnostics/tells/clues that make you believe that that particular chop mark is fake?
Complete Set of Chopmarked Trade Dollars
Carson City Silver Dollars Complete 1870-1893http://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase.aspx?sc=2722"
I'm only guessing, but there doesn't seem to be any gunk inside the chop and the chop itself seems pretty sharp for a coin with that much wear on it. JMHO...
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
When looking at the coin it is graded Fair-Cleaned and is clearly heavily circulated. However, the edges of the chop are sharp and straight. The chop itself is thin and with precise edges, as if the punch was machine made rather than man made.
Considering those warning signs, one must also consider that there is only one chop which is perfectly located in the obverse field. It's a shallow punch with no reciprocal damage on the reverse. The chop, as far as I can tell, is not a Chinese character (this is not necessarily disqualifying by itself). The host coin is cleaned and applying a false chop can (in theory) distract from the poor surface condition.
The only conclusion is that this is an imitation chop, not applied by a Chinese merchant. The imitation chop would likely fool many people.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
1895 B British Trade Dollar- first year of issue.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
How many might be by crack out etc?
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
Did PCGS start straight grading the chopmarked dollars in the interim of their grading? If they started doing that in the last 10-15 years, submitters may have been sending in previously non-numerically graded Trade $1s for a #.
It would not be unreasonable to assume that a number of those “new/fresh” PCGS straight graded Chopmarked Trade Dollars in PCGS plastic are formal crossover of NGC Details Chopmarked Trade Dollars or cracked out coins submitted raw.
There is a clear economic incentive to get out of NGC plastic with a Chopmark Details Grade and into straight grade non details PCGS plastic.
The contributors to this thread can probably account for a number of such instances. 😀
I can attest that I have a number of NGC slabs that I hope to cross.
I wonder if NGC grading of chopmark Trade Dollars is drying up?
That said Lermish’s observations on PCGS Asia are very wise.
Welcome and thoughtful first post.
Trade dollars are often counterfeited and authentication is very important, especially for coins coming out of China. Also, with the publication of @keoj 's new trade dollar book, newly informed collectors can be turned on to the series. However, I believe there is obviously a strong financial component driving the growth in chopped trade dollar grading as well.
Both of these newly graded coins are/will be involved in transactions. One was sold yesterday at Heritage and the other will be available soon.
The coin that was auctioned yesterday was an AU58 with a type 1 obverse/type 1 reverse hub combination. The 1876-P is an extremely difficult coin to find chopmarked. On top of that, there are four known chopmarked examples of this hub combo and this one is by far the finest. (At the same time, I often quote @tradedollarnut "The only thing rarer than trade dollar varieties is trade dollar variety collectors")
I worked with @JohnF on assembling the chopped trade dollar price guide. The 1876-P Chopmarked Trade Dollar has a CPG of $2500 and I feel good about that price. Or at least I did. While there was obviously some variety premium, I think this can partially help explain the increase in grading events...
PS - I was neither the winner nor the underbidder and both of those parties are currently unknown to me.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
Speaking of “ Unfortunately, their grading standards seem to be much different and (IMO) significantly looser/worse than PCGS America. There are some nice coins but many very problematic coins in numerically graded holders (and that's coming from someone who collects damaged coins”
I too have looked at some “problematic” recently slabbed CM TD thinking “this looks like some something in NGC Details holder.”
Anyways in looking through some old auction archives I came across this numerically graded CM TD that “looks” hard to justify numerically graded IMO.
I now wonder if CM TD grading has had its ups and downs in standards over the years?
Good point @InfantryColonel , there have been fluctuating standards over the years for all coins at all grading services...but choppies seem to be a bit more all over the place. Buy the coin, not the holder!
Here's an old AU50 of mine graded in Newport Beach:
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
Wow, that is a stunning price for the 76-P.
Complete Set of Chopmarked Trade Dollars
Carson City Silver Dollars Complete 1870-1893http://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase.aspx?sc=2722"