Surprising Coin Market Strength

Interesting, and very encouraging, to read about the incredible strength of the buying and selling at the ANA. I’m happy for those dealers and collectors who are fortunate enough to be in the thick of it.
I will admit I’m somewhat surprised given what I’ve seen over the past few months as a lack of movement of what seem to be very high quality collector coins on top-shelf dealer websites, and on eBay. I keep a close eye on at least 10-12 online dealer sites on a near daily basis.
I’m certainly not doubting the ANA reports, it’s just not what I expected going in…. Though as I said above, it’s very encouraging!
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I sold some higher end coins and the dealer offers were strong.
Summer is generally slow outside of the big shows.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
No shortage of financial wealth from the current massive asset bubble, with many collectors participating where they can use some of it for coins.
The higher-end coins are definately commanding strong premiums.
Take a quick look at Mail Bid 60 (Sheridan Downey) and you will see very high prices for CBH's. Don't just look at the hammer price. Check out the column where he shows how high the winner was actually willing to go. It was a great auction for the sellers.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
My apologies for addressing this issue, as I absolutely don’t want to derail the excellent point made by the OP, but I can’t ignore the above quote. I suggest checking “Like” or “LOL” or “Agree”, but please let’s go back to the OP.
Why do you confidently call the increase in financial assets a bubble? While markets are always volatile, and there WILL be a time when values are less than they are today, virtually at any point in time over the last 40+ years, the market has been at, or close to, all time highs. Without exception, EVERY time the market has gone down, for a variety of reasons (destruction of the Twin Towers, real war - Iraq and then Afghanistan, the financial crises when our country was on the brink of default, COVID with no cure in sight - 35% drop in March 2020, etc.) not only has the market always recovered, but it’s gone on to new highs! That’s been due to corporate profits! American companies seem to have an uncanny ability (as a generalization) to grow profits under so many scenarios.
As you can see, you pushed one of my buttons, lol. 😁
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Steve, I usually look forward to those periods of declining prices as a long time collector, it gives me an opportunity to add more to my collection and there are some things that I really want that are a bit out of reach. Lately, I've seen a lot of items that I bid on slip away well above the current listed retail. Assembled a 13 coin set of the Texas commems in 67 PCGS/CAC last year and during the end of 2023 and they were a lot lower than numbers that I've seen from a while back, which allowed me to assemble the set within my budget.
But then I can also see it from the dealer standpoint that would mean a potentially big hit to inventory.
I do not at all share your confidence in these assumptions and IMHO thees are rather superficially based. Our diverse Stanford Professors in Economics (no slouch area for that institution!) used to state, and then backed it up, that the Stock Market OVERVALUED stocks and that the largest corporations (Read: Fortune 500, etc.) are overvalued by multiples - which I will leave out - as measured by the RELIABLY calculated value of assets and services, etc.... Will not further elaborate in this forum and will leave alone.
Point being that platitudes based on lower level statistics & numbers as well as elementary interpretations are accepted in with the current media mentality and to a rather large cadre of the populace as well.
There are most definitely valid differing points of view.
Well, just Love coins, period.
Steve,
Especially in the group on this forum, there will always be the doomsayers, PM stackers, anti-Fed crusaders, etc etc. I'm sure in your years in finance you have come across many guns & gold type people. There is no winning; they are convinced and nothing will persuade them.
But you are fighting the good fight!
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
I can accept the guns and canned goods people. I don't understand the rationale when applied to collectibles. If you really think a collapse is coming, sell everything for bullets and beans. I fail to see how type coins fit into that side of the discussion. Only a sanguine view of the future makes the purchase of a numismatic coin logical.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
What is the point to winning the hunger games if you don't get a cool medal. james
Not going to derail this thread either, by writing a dissertation, including explaining why so-called "fundamentals" don't explain prices and valuations. If you want me to do that, I can do so on the Precious Metals forum, and have.
If you are familiar with economic and financial history, you'll understand why I made this comment. Anyone who knows economic and financial history but claims not to understand it is because they do not want to.
Except that I'm not a "stacker" and never owned a gun. So much for that.
Could you elaborate a bit ?
I haven't followed the market as closely in recent months for personal reasons, my understanding was that the big (and pretty much only) development was the evaporation of premiums on gold and silver numismatics priced just above the price of gold/silver as the raw bullion prices went higher.
Is there weakness in any popular series of gold or silver coins, or is it more pure numismatics with much higher premiums like high-graded small denomination U.S. coins ?
I didn't claim you were. You seem to be either a doomsayer or etc etc. You have a hill you are willing to die on. The vast majority of people strongly disagree with you. You are not convincing them and they are not convincing you.
The details of how you choose to label yourself (or not) are irrelevant.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
How exactly do you plan on bartering for those canned beans, without a rare mint state three cent piece?
AU-graded MCMVII High Relief Saints I have watched for years (hope to eventually buy one
). Prices began to rise when the PCGS 3000 Index bottomed and we got past Covid right after 2021 or so.
Price for AU-55's now appears to be where the 58's were 2-3 years ago, about $15,000 give-or-take.
Well this thread definitely went off track and will probably be closed on Monday. Very little coin talk and a lot of name calling. Too bad. Was looking forward to hearing about the coin market. I have been seeing the same coins listed on dealer sites for months. Stale inventory. The things that don't sell within a day sit for months. Most sales seem to happen at shows.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
I agree as far as numismatic coins being logical. I own only one. There is much more going on than my limited brain can handle however I look backwards and if gold was good enough long before the Romans I figure it’s good enough for me. I don’t expect an apocalypse during my limited time left but I hope giving my daughter my gold will help her more than thousands in beans. We try to make the best decisions. Not all of us get everything right.
Maybe he owns a gun and doesn't need to barter.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Both views are valid (and others too). The chart of asset prices (and human progress) is up over time. The periods of distress can exceed one's productive lifetime. Read Ecclesiastes.
"What do workers gain from their toil? I have seen the burden God has laid on the human race. He has made everything beautiful in its time. He has also set eternity in the human heart; yet no one can fathom what God has done from beginning to end. I know that there is nothing better for people than to be happy and to do good while they live. That each of them may eat and drink, and find satisfaction in all their toil—this is the gift of God. I know that everything God does will endure forever; nothing can be added to it and nothing taken from it. God does it so that people will fear him."
Does the material give rise to the immaterial, or vice versa?
A collapse is always coming and so is a rebuilding..... There is no final collapse and no final rebuilding. All things are temporary. We are merely caretakers of our collectables' until it's time to let them go. So enjoy them today, enjoy them now.
i like to collect nice coins, ill leave the rest of it here, jmo. have a great weekend all
@johnny9434 Go Sox! Going to be at the yankee game in Fenway sept 12! Fenway is one of my happy places!!
by all means enjoy the game
(way cool
)
Yes I saw that, I used to bid in the Downey auctions - he always lists really beautiful coins - but I always got run over by the resulting buying stampede. I don’t even try anymore.
I see that too...but in many cases the asking price is simply TOO high. I see coins on GC going without bids now for probably close to or over a year. They're not rare....pre-1933 gold...but folks want the premium of 3-4 years ago tacked on to today's higher gold price.
Not happening !!
Yes, we need a dedicated Thread on "The State Of The Coin Market" so let's keep this on that topic so the Mods stay away.
Happy to debate the other issues in another thread that is separate.
I’ve seen over the past few months as a lack of movement of what seem to be very high quality collector coins on top-shelf dealer websites, and on eBay. I keep a close eye on at least 10-12 online dealer sites on a near daily basis.
Is it possible those dealers you mentioned are pricing their coins above price guides?
Definitely....and either they overpaid originally and are looking to break-even or make a small profit...and are doing so by hoping there is the "1 Dumb Buyer" out there that will overpay if they just list it long enough.
I believe it costs nothing to keep rolling over the listing if no bids on Ebay and/or GC (not sure about HA and SB)...so just name the price and assuming you don't need the $$$ right now you might get your price in 4 months or 4 years.
I have coins in my GC and Ebay watchlists for MULTIPLE years now. It's ridiculous....but you never know.
Heck, one time I bid on a rare Sports Illustrated when Ebay was new (this was 2000 or 2001)....I paid $85 in a bidding war for an SI from my youth in the late-1970's...a few weeks later, another one came up for sale...same condition.....$15 with only 1 bidder.
Timing is everything.
Lol. If your hungry enough, the asking price for my canned beans is a Type I 1804 dollar.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
Does Ecclesiastes tell me to buy or sell stock on Monday?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I try to buy quality coins and that, secondarily, another collector like me would like to own as well one day. If not, that's okay. As such, I "overpay" (would like to know what that means).
If one is familiar with what a bell curve represents where average is at the top of the curve, than "overpaying" beyond price guide for quality coins is normal and expected. YMMV.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Nah. I'm just going to eat my beans and wait for starvation to do its thing.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
Absolutely.
I focus on what I consider to be exceptional collector coins, usually stickered, that’d I’d fully expect to be priced over guide, but would normally sell in a reasonable timeframe nonetheless. If I see a must have coin, I might reference guide price, but I don’t let it stop me from buying if the coin is right.
I’m sure the buying spree in Oklahoma included many high quality coins significantly over guide as well. Perhaps similar to auctions, buyers get caught up in the excitement of a bustling show, and out comes the wallet.
Nope.
Claiming what I did isn't a doomsayer, except to those who are more concerned about the financial performance of their collection than the coin itself. If coin prices go up or down, it's not good or bad. It's a hobby, or so I hear.
I don't buy coins with the intent to lose money and attempt to get value for my outlay, but if money was such an important consideration in collecting to me, I'd spend it elsewhere.
Yes.
Does the material give rise to the immaterial, or vice versa?
Hold...
For eternity...
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I have slowly transformed from a passionate collector into the seemingly stereotypical local-yokel dealer. Having other responsible and predictable income, I have the luxury of selling coins basically to move them straight across, so I can 'pay-up' for quality without the need to advance the price any more to 'cover' anything or make a 'profit'. I love the hobby, the coins, and the relationships, and the lack of need for profit (but NOT trying to take a huge loss if possible) gives me a good comparison point for the success or failure of the 'but', and also whether the market for quality is TRULY up or down. Also . . . if I 'pay up' for quality, and no one else will (using my business model of moving them straight across - or even at a slight loss), well, I guess I know the fault is mine and I am not buying true quality or buying 'right'.
I love those responses that deal with the true 'state of the market' . . . regardless of opinion. Knowing TRUE collector trends really assists me in buying and keeping my inventory on track with quality and collector needs,
In my real world, the desirability of a 1909-S VDB in VF35 matters much more than the new 1804 dollar . . . not that I don't love those coins made of unobtanium . . . . .
Drunner
I have accumulated nearly every date and mm of the $20 Liberties in circulated or low mint state over the past 50 years except for the ultra rare 1870-CC, 1871-CC and 1882 and a couple of the rarest 1850’s O mints. All are slabbed by PCGS or CACG Only 2 of them are not CAC stickered. I seem to have ended up with numerous 1873 O3 and 1904. Does this type of collecting make me a stacker?
I have done the same with the $20 Saints all PCGS/CAC except I managed to orocure a 1908NM, 1924 and 1928 Saints in PCGS/CAC MS-67 and a dozen of these Mottos in PCGS/CAC MS-66 over 10 years ago. Yet I could only comprehend buying a 1907 HR recently in PCGS/CAC MS-63. This Saint collection appears to be pure coin collecting as opposed to stacking. Yet, I seem to have accumulated too many 1908NM, 1924 and 1927 which sounds like stacking.
If this was your only type of collecting...probably. But you also have a significant numismatic collection which is not indicative of stacking. Also, even more so, you invest in various securities.
Willing participation in mainstream financial systems is a disqualification for stackers.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
Interesting. thanks. So I could be a part-time stacker?
Is the stacker storing his stacked coins in a mainstream financial bank safe deposit box disqualify him as a stacker?
Maybe and maybe? I don't think there are hard and fast rules here...mostly my own impressions and prejudices. To each their own.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
Absolutely disqualifies. The first thing to happen when society breaks down is to close the banks. A pit in the back yard is the only reasonable place to bury your treasures.
Of course, I am willing to give up my last can of beans for a 1907 HR, so I can gaze at it lovingly during my final days.
Or maybe I should trade for bullets, and then I can just take my beans back, as suggested earlier.