@Coins3675 said:
I think coins will always retain there value because of their metallic content and the history behind them.
Copper and nickel coins don’t offer much value from their metallic content. 😉
And silver and gold coins that trade at large multiples of their metallic content do so, based mostly upon their numismatic value.
Last and least, common silver and gold coins which trade at levels tied to their metallic content can just as easily decrease in value, as increase.
So, I can’t agree that “coins will always retain their value from their metallic content.”
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
This statement also misses the point. One upon a time, the stamp market v was larger and deeper than coin (were "more valuable") than coins as a collectible. Then things changed.
Your original statement was predicting a future trend... or rather assuming that the current trend continues. Beware the fickle finger of fate...
If the coin market is going away, I should be able to buy the coins I want cheap. I can't, and I'm old. The young wipper snappers are beating me on a regular basis.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
@BillJones said:
If the coin market is going away, I should be able to buy the coins I want cheap. I can't, and I'm old. The young wipper snappers are beating me on a regular basis.
Again, no one said it was going away.
When's the last time you were in the marked for a VG 1911 Barber quarter?
@BillJones said:
If the coin market is going away, I should be able to buy the coins I want cheap. I can't, and I'm old. The young wipper snappers are beating me on a regular basis.
Again, no one said it was going away.
When's the last time you were in the marked for a VG 1911 Barber quarter?
A date set Barber coins? Never. I didn’t care for them. As for a common date, well circulated coin, it’s like the old, circulated hold pieces. The melt value overtakes the collector value.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
@Coins3675 said:
I think coins will always retain there value because of their metallic content and the history behind them.
Copper and nickel coins don’t offer much value from their metallic content. 😉
And silver and gold coins that trade at large multiples of their metallic content do so, based mostly upon their numismatic value.
Last and least, common silver and gold coins which trade at levels tied to their metallic content can just as easily decrease in value, as increase.
So, I can’t agree that “coins will always retain their value from their metallic content.”
Coins will always have some value. Even copper, zinc, and nickel. I've saved mine to trade for the worthless currency the day hyper inflation hits and I can use the worthless paper to heat my house in the winter. It will be cheaper than wood.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
@BillJones said:
If the coin market is going away, I should be able to buy the coins I want cheap. I can't, and I'm old. The young wipper snappers are beating me on a regular basis.
Again, no one said it was going away.
When's the last time you were in the marked for a VG 1911 Barber quarter?
A date set Barber coins? Never. I didn’t care for them. As for a common date, well circulated coin, it’s like the old, circulated hold pieces. The melt value overtakes the collector value.
And that is the point. There are two markets. The same with stamps. The high end does great. The low end "circulated" pieces can't catch a bid.
I won't pretend to know what the future will bring, but I quit collecting coins in the early 1990s. The coin market was in a free fall, and my local coin shop had gone from 100% coins to 80% sports cards and two other dealers closed up shop. Several people I knew (including those dealers) said that the decline was permanent. With the elimination of silver in circulation kids weren't able to find old coins that might pique their interest, and the coin shows were full of old people with no new blood coming in.
That's what I was told, and I believed it and moved on to other things. I had little money and didn't want to tie it up in something that would be worthless later, even if I enjoyed it. When I dipped back into the market in 2015 I was shocked at how expensive everything was, and the 2020 bull market was even more insane. I'm sure a market dip is coming, maybe has already started. Maybe the market will never recover. But I've been hearing this sort of thing for decades and I don't see that anything substantial has changed since then.
@Coins3675 said:
I think coins will always retain there value because of their metallic content and the history behind them.
Copper and nickel coins don’t offer much value from their metallic content. 😉
And silver and gold coins that trade at large multiples of their metallic content do so, based mostly upon their numismatic value.
Last and least, common silver and gold coins which trade at levels tied to their metallic content can just as easily decrease in value, as increase.
So, I can’t agree that “coins will always retain their value from their metallic content.”
Coins will always have some value. Even copper, zinc, and nickel. I've saved mine to trade for the worthless currency the day hyper inflation hits and I can use the worthless paper to heat my house in the winter. It will be cheaper than wood.
No one has said that coins won’t always have “some value”.
The post to which I replied stated “I think coins will always retain there value because of their metallic content and the history behind them.” That’s not the same thing as saying they’ll, always retain “some value”. And unless you’re taking about coins that trade at only face value, there’s no guarantee that they’ll always “retain their value”.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
If you're talking about Mancave, no one believes that number is accurate. But that is rather beside the point. The number of counterfeit Morgans is itself in the millions.
I was really talking the possibility of high tech graded counterfeits in PCGS, CACG, NGC. Other than the occasional that may get the past the graders, has there been a case(modern times) where a significant number were found from a single source? Understand the millions of fakes, which won’t end up in a graded holder as I mentioned. Not being a smart aleck, just curious.
Battles are won and battles are lost...it is who wins the war. The 2nd Protects the 1st.
In reading this thread about the future of our favorite hobby, I post this thread to go in a different direction,.................. to offer forum readers a...................... mental diversion.
If one reads the third book (titled Death's End) in the three volume series known as The Three Body Problem (authored by Cixin Liu) you will read about a possible end of all (but a very, very few) of humanity (and the Solar System we call home extending from the Sun to the end of the Ort Cloud).
Humanity is subjected to a dark forest attack that results in the collapse of our three-dimensional Solar System (and everything/everyone in it) into two dimensions (OUCH!!!!!!!). We and our beloved pieces of metal are squished into two dimensions.
If that ever happened in real life (instead of s SCI FI novel), coin collecting would truly cease to exist (at least in three dimensions).
If one is tired with the repetitiveness of daily life (including our participation in the Hobby Of Kings) and desires to take a detour into an area that will require that one open his, her, their mind and think (as best as you can) about topics that only an intellect such as those possessed by Steven Hawking, Sheldon Cooper, etc. can grasp beyond the most basic level I recommend that you obtain and read The Three Body Problem.
My son gave me the three books last Christmas. I started reading the first of the three books in late May, or June. It took me a while to get going. Eventually I did and jumped deeply into the story.
Once I dove in, it grabbed my attention and caused my brain to ache as I tried to grasp the concepts presented to the reader. I finished all three books last month and now have a much broader and deeper perspective on big picture topics than I did before
Quite a ride it was and while engrossed in the story coin collecting was the farthest thing from my mind.
If you're talking about Mancave, no one believes that number is accurate. But that is rather beside the point. The number of counterfeit Morgans is itself in the millions.
I was really talking the possibility of high tech graded counterfeits in PCGS, CACG, NGC. Other than the occasional that may get the past the graders, has there been a case(modern times) where a significant number were found from a single source? Understand the millions of fakes, which won’t end up in a graded holder as I mentioned. Not being a smart aleck, just curious.
The micro Os did, though not modern. It's also not clear that any of the Mancave fakes were certified. He faked certifications but there are numerous fake PCGS and NGC slabs on the market.
Most modern commems are at intrinsic. I know a dealer who is considering tossing full good Barber coinage into his 90% bags because there is no numismatic premium left. The price of common date, circulated classics have mostly not moved up with the top of the market.
>
Considering inflation, buying silver and gold coins at melt seems a lot like it was collecting coins out of circulation in the old days.
Recently there was a thread regarding a large number of fake sports memorabilia and autographs uncovered in this country, perpetrated by someone many people thought was legitimate. This will always be a problem with memorabilia and autographs - you can only be guaranteed authenticity if you, personally, got the autograph from the athlete.
Coins, on the other hand, are much easier to authenticate. Plus many are made of precious metals - silver, platinum, gold - and as such, will always have an intrinsic value.
Finally, there will always be a contingent of people who will never trust anything but cash, no matter how safe digital currency may seem.
Just ideas to consider.
On authentication, I have thought that it is a matter of time before a near perfect counterfeit of coins (morgans, pre-33 gold, etc.) inundates the market and years later is discovered. Might be the second coming of the big bang theory for the industry.
Coming from a non-dealer perspective, I never collected coins until I was about 40 years old. Never cared to. It happened, and I really enjoy the hobby. When we were kids, stamps/coins were to be mailed and spent, records were to be played much and as loud as possible. The only activities were baseball, basketball, football, etc., did not matter if it was organized play or not, all we did was play. Today, kids will play, but mostly organized and very structured. Nothing wrong, just reality. Too much time looking down at their hand to see what is happening and what to do.
One thing from my experience is that once you invest some time into the history and physically holding and looking at coins from the past, it is way cool. It is a bug. As long as some do this it will survive and possibly thrive.
You didn't grow up in my neighborhood. Every guy in grade school I knew had Whitman folders. Many were coin roll hunters. We had a well attended coin club in junior high school where we'd search through bags of coins for scarce dates. By high school, though, the coin collectors had thinned out, and I don't recall any collecting or roll hunting on my part while playing sports. Yet two years later, I'm back at it, getting in trouble visiting a coin shop before a football game.
Most modern commems are at intrinsic. I know a dealer who is considering tossing full good Barber coinage into his 90% bags because there is no numismatic premium left. The price of common date, circulated classics have mostly not moved up with the top of the market.
>
Considering inflation, buying silver and gold coins at melt seems a lot like it was collecting coins out of circulation in the old days.
Sure. And there's nothing wrong with bullion stacking. However it is hardly evidence of a booming coin market in those lower tiers. I think it masks the actual weakness in that part of the market. Of course once they are done refining a bunch of these coins, the supply may drop to meet the demand.
For the record - and this doesn't capture the IG audience - ANA membership is about 25,000 and APS membership is about 21,000.
The all time high for the APS was 58,000 in 1988 while the ANA membership peaked in the early 1990s at 32,000. Yes, stamps were historically a bigger hobby than coins.
>
As a former stamp collector I'm really shocked that the APS membership is actually 21,000 when the ANA membership is about 25,000. I'm not seeing any serious interest on the Stamp Forum.
The 58,000 high for the APS was right after the AMERIPEX '86 international stamp show held in Chicago, Illinois, from May 22 to June 1. 1986. It was the largest philatelic exhibition ever held in North America at the time and featured exhibits from over 50 countries.
For the record - and this doesn't capture the IG audience - ANA membership is about 25,000 and APS membership is about 21,000.
The all time high for the APS was 58,000 in 1988 while the ANA membership peaked in the early 1990s at 32,000. Yes, stamps were historically a bigger hobby than coins.
>
As a former stamp collector I'm really shocked that the APS membership is actually 21,000 when the ANA membership is about 25,000. I'm not seeing any serious interest on the Stamp Forum.
The 58,000 high for the APS was right after the AMERIPEX '86 international stamp show held in Chicago, Illinois, from May 22 to June 1. 1986. It was the largest philatelic exhibition ever held in North America at the time and featured exhibits from over 50 countries.
Yes, the stamp forum here is dead. The APS website is pretty active, however. It may be because slabs have never really caught on with stamps.
As I mentioned, those numbers are deceptive as they don't capture the IG crowd that exists for coins but really didn't exist for stamps.
The issue with stamps is more a supply glut than anything. That's why I think they point about coins or stamps isn't binary. A shrinking collector base will wreak havoc on prices. It's not about having zero collectors left.
Next time I'm in our local Stamp & Coin Shop, I'll ask them...since they deal with both, they should have a weighted opinion. It is true though, the value of money is changing, and how that affects what we collect could change with it. The attitudes and interests of new generations also changes, always. Silver and gold though, has always held great interest throughout the centuries.
Recently there was a thread regarding a large number of fake sports memorabilia and autographs uncovered in this country, perpetrated by someone many people thought was legitimate. This will always be a problem with memorabilia and autographs - you can only be guaranteed authenticity if you, personally, got the autograph from the athlete.
Coins, on the other hand, are much easier to authenticate. Plus many are made of precious metals - silver, platinum, gold - and as such, will always have an intrinsic value.
Finally, there will always be a contingent of people who will never trust anything but cash, no matter how safe digital currency may seem.
Just ideas to consider.
On authentication, I have thought that it is a matter of time before a near perfect counterfeit of coins (morgans, pre-33 gold, etc.) inundates the market and years later is discovered. Might be the second coming of the big bang theory for the industry.
Coming from a non-dealer perspective, I never collected coins until I was about 40 years old. Never cared to. It happened, and I really enjoy the hobby. When we were kids, stamps/coins were to be mailed and spent, records were to be played much and as loud as possible. The only activities were baseball, basketball, football, etc., did not matter if it was organized play or not, all we did was play. Today, kids will play, but mostly organized and very structured. Nothing wrong, just reality. Too much time looking down at their hand to see what is happening and what to do.
One thing from my experience is that once you invest some time into the history and physically holding and looking at coins from the past, it is way cool. It is a bug. As long as some do this it will survive and possibly thrive.
You didn't grow up in my neighborhood. Every guy in grade school I knew had Whitman folders. Many were coin roll hunters. We had a well attended coin club in junior high school where we'd search through bags of coins for scarce dates. By high school, though, the coin collectors had thinned out, and I don't recall any collecting or roll hunting on my part while playing sports. Yet two years later, I'm back at it, getting in trouble visiting a coin shop before a football game.
Really?! That is impressive that every guy you knew in grade school had Whitman folders and many were coin roll hunters. How did you ever find the time to go to class or play any sports? Speaking of, I bet you really liked the "42 Blast" play. I'm sure you do remember it, fondly, as you strike me as a Number 2 hole kind of guy. Anyway, thanks for the edumacation.
Battles are won and battles are lost...it is who wins the war. The 2nd Protects the 1st.
@MFeld said:
Are you of the opinion that interest in and collecting of objects such as stamps, coins, cards, records, etc. isn’t influenced by collectors’ in-hand familiarity (and in particular, their early experiences) with them?
It’s one thing to have a different opinion as to what the future might bring. It’s another, entirely, to say that a different view is “about the dumbest thing I’ve read in 10 years”.
Agree, it's not as culturally visible now. Without circulating coinage, the hobby will rely almost entirely on the marketing and buying of precious metals to attract new collectors, and many of these buyers limit their collecting to a very narrow slice of the market.
In metro ATL where I live which has a population of 6MM+, a recent Google search indicates around 10 B&Ms, maybe fewer since I only know three of them. Might be the same as when I was a YN in the 70's, but there were four within reasonably close proximity to where I lived then. One in the same radius now, the same one closest to me back in 1975.
I'm aware of one or two bookstores (Barnes & Noble) locally, which is where the public used to (and maybe still does) find coin books, coin folders, and magazines. Big difference with Amazon.
There is a local monthly coin show. I'm not looking, but I doubt it's advertised and even if it is, far fewer read the local paper or watch local TV.
When I've taken a break from visiting coin websites, banner ads for coin related sites disappear. That's eBay, Heritage, etc. I infer (but don't actually know) this is usual.
Comments
Yes, an 89-CC dollar will always be worth melt.
Stamps have as much history as coins.
Copper and nickel coins don’t offer much value from their metallic content. 😉
And silver and gold coins that trade at large multiples of their metallic content do so, based mostly upon their numismatic value.
Last and least, common silver and gold coins which trade at levels tied to their metallic content can just as easily decrease in value, as increase.
So, I can’t agree that “coins will always retain their value from their metallic content.”
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Stamps are not nearly as valuable.
Free shipping, 10% Off First Order - Jay's Coins
Whatnot!
This statement is useless. Which stamps? Which coins?
5 cent wheat cent? 50 cent Buffalo Nickel? $10 million penny magenta.
This statement also misses the point. One upon a time, the stamp market v was larger and deeper than coin (were "more valuable") than coins as a collectible. Then things changed.
Your original statement was predicting a future trend... or rather assuming that the current trend continues. Beware the fickle finger of fate...
If the coin market is going away, I should be able to buy the coins I want cheap. I can't, and I'm old. The young wipper snappers are beating me on a regular basis.
Again, no one said it was going away.
When's the last time you were in the marked for a VG 1911 Barber quarter?
A date set Barber coins? Never. I didn’t care for them. As for a common date, well circulated coin, it’s like the old, circulated hold pieces. The melt value overtakes the collector value.
Coins will always have some value. Even copper, zinc, and nickel. I've saved mine to trade for the worthless currency the day hyper inflation hits and I can use the worthless paper to heat my house in the winter. It will be cheaper than wood.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
And that is the point. There are two markets. The same with stamps. The high end does great. The low end "circulated" pieces can't catch a bid.
I won't pretend to know what the future will bring, but I quit collecting coins in the early 1990s. The coin market was in a free fall, and my local coin shop had gone from 100% coins to 80% sports cards and two other dealers closed up shop. Several people I knew (including those dealers) said that the decline was permanent. With the elimination of silver in circulation kids weren't able to find old coins that might pique their interest, and the coin shows were full of old people with no new blood coming in.
That's what I was told, and I believed it and moved on to other things. I had little money and didn't want to tie it up in something that would be worthless later, even if I enjoyed it. When I dipped back into the market in 2015 I was shocked at how expensive everything was, and the 2020 bull market was even more insane. I'm sure a market dip is coming, maybe has already started. Maybe the market will never recover. But I've been hearing this sort of thing for decades and I don't see that anything substantial has changed since then.
No one has said that coins won’t always have “some value”.
The post to which I replied stated “I think coins will always retain there value because of their metallic content and the history behind them.” That’s not the same thing as saying they’ll, always retain “some value”. And unless you’re taking about coins that trade at only face value, there’s no guarantee that they’ll always “retain their value”.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@jmlanzaf
I was really talking the possibility of high tech graded counterfeits in PCGS, CACG, NGC. Other than the occasional that may get the past the graders, has there been a case(modern times) where a significant number were found from a single source? Understand the millions of fakes, which won’t end up in a graded holder as I mentioned. Not being a smart aleck, just curious.
In a cashless society where do we put all our real money that is left over from the conversion?
In reading this thread about the future of our favorite hobby, I post this thread to go in a different direction,.................. to offer forum readers a...................... mental diversion.
If one reads the third book (titled Death's End) in the three volume series known as The Three Body Problem (authored by Cixin Liu) you will read about a possible end of all (but a very, very few) of humanity (and the Solar System we call home extending from the Sun to the end of the Ort Cloud).
Humanity is subjected to a dark forest attack that results in the collapse of our three-dimensional Solar System (and everything/everyone in it) into two dimensions (OUCH!!!!!!!). We and our beloved pieces of metal are squished into two dimensions.
If that ever happened in real life (instead of s SCI FI novel), coin collecting would truly cease to exist (at least in three dimensions).
If one is tired with the repetitiveness of daily life (including our participation in the Hobby Of Kings) and desires to take a detour into an area that will require that one open his, her, their mind and think (as best as you can) about topics that only an intellect such as those possessed by Steven Hawking, Sheldon Cooper, etc. can grasp beyond the most basic level I recommend that you obtain and read The Three Body Problem.
My son gave me the three books last Christmas. I started reading the first of the three books in late May, or June. It took me a while to get going. Eventually I did and jumped deeply into the story.
Once I dove in, it grabbed my attention and caused my brain to ache as I tried to grasp the concepts presented to the reader. I finished all three books last month and now have a much broader and deeper perspective on big picture topics than I did before
Quite a ride it was and while engrossed in the story coin collecting was the farthest thing from my mind.
The micro Os did, though not modern. It's also not clear that any of the Mancave fakes were certified. He faked certifications but there are numerous fake PCGS and NGC slabs on the market.
Most modern commems are at intrinsic. I know a dealer who is considering tossing full good Barber coinage into his 90% bags because there is no numismatic premium left. The price of common date, circulated classics have mostly not moved up with the top of the market.
>
Considering inflation, buying silver and gold coins at melt seems a lot like it was collecting coins out of circulation in the old days.
You didn't grow up in my neighborhood. Every guy in grade school I knew had Whitman folders. Many were coin roll hunters. We had a well attended coin club in junior high school where we'd search through bags of coins for scarce dates. By high school, though, the coin collectors had thinned out, and I don't recall any collecting or roll hunting on my part while playing sports. Yet two years later, I'm back at it, getting in trouble visiting a coin shop before a football game.
Sure. And there's nothing wrong with bullion stacking. However it is hardly evidence of a booming coin market in those lower tiers. I think it masks the actual weakness in that part of the market. Of course once they are done refining a bunch of these coins, the supply may drop to meet the demand.
>
As a former stamp collector I'm really shocked that the APS membership is actually 21,000 when the ANA membership is about 25,000. I'm not seeing any serious interest on the Stamp Forum.
The 58,000 high for the APS was right after the AMERIPEX '86 international stamp show held in Chicago, Illinois, from May 22 to June 1. 1986. It was the largest philatelic exhibition ever held in North America at the time and featured exhibits from over 50 countries.
Yes, the stamp forum here is dead. The APS website is pretty active, however. It may be because slabs have never really caught on with stamps.
As I mentioned, those numbers are deceptive as they don't capture the IG crowd that exists for coins but really didn't exist for stamps.
The issue with stamps is more a supply glut than anything. That's why I think they point about coins or stamps isn't binary. A shrinking collector base will wreak havoc on prices. It's not about having zero collectors left.
Next time I'm in our local Stamp & Coin Shop, I'll ask them...since they deal with both, they should have a weighted opinion. It is true though, the value of money is changing, and how that affects what we collect could change with it. The attitudes and interests of new generations also changes, always. Silver and gold though, has always held great interest throughout the centuries.
Really?! That is impressive that every guy you knew in grade school had Whitman folders and many were coin roll hunters. How did you ever find the time to go to class or play any sports? Speaking of, I bet you really liked the "42 Blast" play. I'm sure you do remember it, fondly, as you strike me as a Number 2 hole kind of guy. Anyway, thanks for the edumacation.
Agree, it's not as culturally visible now. Without circulating coinage, the hobby will rely almost entirely on the marketing and buying of precious metals to attract new collectors, and many of these buyers limit their collecting to a very narrow slice of the market.
In metro ATL where I live which has a population of 6MM+, a recent Google search indicates around 10 B&Ms, maybe fewer since I only know three of them. Might be the same as when I was a YN in the 70's, but there were four within reasonably close proximity to where I lived then. One in the same radius now, the same one closest to me back in 1975.
I'm aware of one or two bookstores (Barnes & Noble) locally, which is where the public used to (and maybe still does) find coin books, coin folders, and magazines. Big difference with Amazon.
There is a local monthly coin show. I'm not looking, but I doubt it's advertised and even if it is, far fewer read the local paper or watch local TV.
When I've taken a break from visiting coin websites, banner ads for coin related sites disappear. That's eBay, Heritage, etc. I infer (but don't actually know) this is usual.
This is a pretty biased place to ask this question.