What makes you think all of a sudden coins will stop being collected when we have collected relics of the past for centuries? Including those weird things called... coins
@coinshop said:
But how can you say Ancients and real old money would be treated as such a lickable piece of paper?
Why do they have to be different?
There are a lot of similarities. They are both "money", they both represent political portrayals of history. They are both predominantly collected by old guys.
I don't think it's binary. If coin collecting continues, as stamp collecting continues, but with a reduced collector base then you have the same situation: glut of supply for 90% of material and stagnant and faking prices for 90% of material.
My crystal ball is broken
This is my opinion too, starting with post-1933 for US coinage. Decades from now, I'm sticking with my prior opinion that even if collecting resembles its current form, the vast majority will sell for the cost or grading or minimal premiums to silver spot in grades up to MS-66.
There is also world's greatest credit bubble and asset mania.
Not true! People didn't collect coins before about 650BC when coins were first minted.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
@Cougar1978 said:
I believe that coin and currency collecting / investment has a strong future.
That's because your posts indicate you view coins as financial "widgets". I don't recall a single post of yours where you've ever indicated any interest in any coin as a collectible. The thread topic doesn't matter. You're always writing about how you can make money off of it.
If someone wants to buy coins as "widgets", there are far more liquid options with scale for supposed "investment". Coins are not competitive. Diversification? Maybe for the very few who know what they are doing.
The main factor I can think of in favor of your sentiments is the (apparent) trend in metal prices. Short to intermediate term, I agree this should provide a lot of support for generic gold and silver coins, like common Morgan dollars and pre-1933 gold up to low MS grades. A lot less to none for other coinage, depending upon the coin.
Concurrently, there are numerous negative factors, starting with the current artificial economy and the concurrent asset mania which substantially inflates paper wealth, economic statistics, and with it, living standards. The end of this artificial economy = the majority of Americans become poorer or a lot poorer over the indefinite future.
Second, there is demographics. Prior posts have mentioned one likely impact, but for US coinage in particular, currently defined minority groups don't have the same perception toward collecting, and to the extent they do collect, less toward US coinage vs. the current collector base. No, the lower participation rate is not due to a lack of money. It's a lack of interest. Enough of these people have money for most or seemingly everything else, but they don't spend it on coins. Some level of affluence is a necessary precondition, but no amount of increasing affluence alone will ever convert anyone into collecting anything, not just coins.
What makes you think all of a sudden coins will stop being collected when we have collected relics of the past for centuries? Including those weird things called... coins
People always collected coins, not stamps.
I don’t think that coins will stop being collected. However, there’s an extremely significant headwind working against the hobby…
Most collectors of the past were introduced to (and started collecting) coins because and while they were circulating. And although it’s not happening “all of a sudden”, as time goes on, fewer and fewer coins are circulating. As a result, a significant number of potential future collectors will probably never get started.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@Morgan White said:
Coins will go the way of stamps. Everyone collected stamps 60 years ago, now the only stamps worth anything are the 19th century classics.
Coins are already on that trajectory.
I 'm guessing by your comment that you may just be a disgruntled coin and stamp investor.
What makes you think all of a sudden coins will stop being collected when we have collected relics of the past for centuries? Including those weird things called... coins
People always collected coins, not stamps.
Nobody said "all of a sudden".
That leaves 10,000 years of human history where they didn't collect.
You could say pretty much the same thing about philately, it has been collected since the revolution (stamps only since 1850, stampless before then).
The Mayans valued chocolate more than gold, do you?
You are not open to facts or discussion. Your sole argument is that Coins are different and that will never change. That is not an argument or a fact but just an assumption.
I would be more concerned about sports cards. MLB history and knowledge does not seem to drive the market as much as just rookie and HOF players' cards. On the vintage side, the are many significant players that simply do not have the following they deserve and as time passes, I doubt that this will improve. The collecting mentality seems difficult to understand and even more problematic to explain,
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
What makes you think all of a sudden coins will stop being collected when we have collected relics of the past for centuries? Including those weird things called... coins
People always collected coins, not stamps.
I don’t think that coins will stop being collected. However, there’s an extremely significant headwind working against the hobby…
Most collectors of the past were introduced to (and started collecting) coins because and while they were circulating. And although it’s not happening “all of a sudden”, as time goes on, fewer and fewer coins are circulating. As a result, a significant number of potential future collectors will probably never get started.
I disagree.
The argument I make still I think holds. Say Abiz Delouh of Egypt in the BC times collected special made Mint Egyptian coins, he collected them out of his heart at a young age and never stopped. The US Mint, they make tons of coins for this reason. The collector.
I know you're very intelligent, but these "headwinds" will never stop people from collecting. Period. No argument or retort needed.
The market is hotter than ever. See the last Heritage auctions on Ancient, World? Unbelieveable prices.
Couldn't win a thing!
Now Mr. Old farts who die / coins die, is a sports memorabilia dealer if I didnt mention. :Rolls eyes:
He don't like coins like we do..
He is wrong. That's why it was heated. I am former / worked with Law Enforcement, believe me, this guy was no stranger to the department side too. It was a battle of egos mainly.
Nobody won, but I walked away with the firm opinion (unwavering fyi) that coins will never die with the times. Collector's will collect forever.
I may sometimes try to make some dollars in this game.. however, I am a diehard collector and nobody insults my hobby like that. Mark, how tf can coins ever dry up? Collectors will collect anything forever
What makes you think all of a sudden coins will stop being collected when we have collected relics of the past for centuries? Including those weird things called... coins
People always collected coins, not stamps.
Nobody said "all of a sudden".
That leaves 10,000 years of human history where they didn't collect.
You could say pretty much the same thing about philately, it has been collected since the revolution (stamps only since 1850, stampless before then).
The Mayans valued chocolate more than gold, do you?
You are not open to facts or discussion. Your sole argument is that Coins are different and that will never change. That is not an argument or a fact but just an assumption.
I didn't include each time period for sake of time and effort, but I argue coins do last the test of time because inherently they are valuable generally, have monetary value, are from time periods people touched that are historic that will never be erased, and are part of cultures. Henceforth, the US Mint and many World mints churning out millions of coins a year soley to feed the collector's universe
The future for coins collecting and dealing is very bright. just check out Summer ANA and Witter University where there are many YNs that are very bright, eager to learn and energetic about coins. They were buying & selling coins throughout the day. Just amazing. Anyone that thinks coin collecting will die like stamps are living in a shell.
What makes you think all of a sudden coins will stop being collected when we have collected relics of the past for centuries? Including those weird things called... coins
People always collected coins, not stamps.
Nobody said "all of a sudden".
That leaves 10,000 years of human history where they didn't collect.
You could say pretty much the same thing about philately, it has been collected since the revolution (stamps only since 1850, stampless before then).
The Mayans valued chocolate more than gold, do you?
You are not open to facts or discussion. Your sole argument is that Coins are different and that will never change. That is not an argument or a fact but just an assumption.
I didn't include each time period for sake of time and effort, but I argue coins do last the test of time because inherently they are valuable generally, have monetary value, are from time periods people touched that are historic that will never be erased, and are part of cultures. Henceforth, the US Mint and many World mints churning out millions of coins a year soley to feed the collector's universe
So said stamp collectors in 1999...
Keep your blinders on. It allows you to be surprised when history unfolds on its own without your bias.
NO ONE knows what will happen. You should be open to the real possibility that you are wrong.
@EastonCollection said:
The future for coins collecting and dealing is very bright. just check out Summer ANA and Witter University where there are many YNs that are very bright, eager to learn and energetic about coins. They were buying & selling coins throughout the day. Just amazing. Anyone that thinks coin collecting will die like stamps are living in a shell.
There are still millions of stamp collectors. Trophy stamps continue to set records
Is that so. My standards for stamps and probably coins appear to be much higher than yours. That's why I've been usually disappointed with anything I have purchased on Ebay except for a barometer, a Granny quilt and several BU Lincoln cents from one particular seller.
What makes you think all of a sudden coins will stop being collected when we have collected relics of the past for centuries? Including those weird things called... coins
People always collected coins, not stamps.
Nobody said "all of a sudden".
That leaves 10,000 years of human history where they didn't collect.
You could say pretty much the same thing about philately, it has been collected since the revolution (stamps only since 1850, stampless before then).
The Mayans valued chocolate more than gold, do you?
You are not open to facts or discussion. Your sole argument is that Coins are different and that will never change. That is not an argument or a fact but just an assumption.
I didn't include each time period for sake of time and effort, but I argue coins do last the test of time because inherently they are valuable generally, have monetary value, are from time periods people touched that are historic that will never be erased, and are part of cultures. Henceforth, the US Mint and many World mints churning out millions of coins a year soley to feed the collector's universe
So said stamp collectors in 1999...
Keep your blinders on. It allows you to be surprised when history unfolds on its own without your bias.
NO ONE knows what will happen. You should be open to the real possibility that you are wrong.
Being open to the possibility that one is wrong is a strong character trait and one I seek to improve upon.
What makes you think all of a sudden coins will stop being collected when we have collected relics of the past for centuries? Including those weird things called... coins
People always collected coins, not stamps.
I don’t think that coins will stop being collected. However, there’s an extremely significant headwind working against the hobby…
Most collectors of the past were introduced to (and started collecting) coins because and while they were circulating. And although it’s not happening “all of a sudden”, as time goes on, fewer and fewer coins are circulating. As a result, a significant number of potential future collectors will probably never get started.
I disagree.
The argument I make still I think holds. Say Abiz Delouh of Egypt in the BC times collected special made Mint Egyptian coins, he collected them out of his heart at a young age and never stopped. The US Mint, they make tons of coins for this reason. The collector.
I know you're very intelligent, but these "headwinds" will never stop people from collecting. Period. No argument or retort needed.
The market is hotter than ever. See the last Heritage auctions on Ancient, World? Unbelieveable prices.
Couldn't win a thing!
Now Mr. Old farts who die / coins die, is a sports memorabilia dealer if I didnt mention. :Rolls eyes:
He don't like coins like we do..
He is wrong. That's why it was heated. I am former / worked with Law Enforcement, believe me, this guy was no stranger to the department side too. It was a battle of egos mainly.
Nobody won, but I walked away with the firm opinion (unwavering fyi) that coins will never die with the times. Collector's will collect forever.
I may sometimes try to make some dollars in this game.. however, I am a diehard collector and nobody insults my hobby like that. Mark, how tf can coins ever dry up? Collectors will collect anything forever
Of course you disagree - based on your posts I would have been shocked if you didn’t.😉
I’m sure many people agree with you and that many others don’t.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@Morgan White said:
Coins will go the way of stamps. Everyone collected stamps 60 years ago, now the only stamps worth anything are the 19th century classics.
Coins are already on that trajectory.
I 'm guessing by your comment that you may just be a disgruntled coin and stamp investor.
Is that so. My standards for stamps and probably coins appear to be much higher than yours. That's why I've been usually disappointed with anything I have purchased on Ebay except for a barometer, a Granny quilt and several BU Lincoln cents from one particular seller.
Keep your blinders on. It allows you to be surprised when history unfolds on its own without your bias.
NO ONE knows what will happen. You should be open to the real possibility that you are wrong.
And of course, @jmlanzaf has no bias, we all know that……………...
Everyone has a bias or perception filter. However, I'm open to both possible outcomes. I don't think that stamps or coins MUST disappear as a collectible. I also don't think that stamps or coins MUST thrive as a collectible.
Keep your blinders on. It allows you to be surprised when history unfolds on its own without your bias.
NO ONE knows what will happen. You should be open to the real possibility that you are wrong.
And of course, @jmlanzaf has no bias, we all know that……………...
Everyone has a bias or perception filter. However, I'm open to both possible outcomes. I don't think that stamps or coins MUST disappear as a collectible. I also don't think that straps or coins MUST thrive as a collectible.
Here's my two cents. Forgive me if this is a somewhat longer post.
I've been collecting coins since age 5. My dad gave me some of his coins that he'd collected as a kid, and as a gas station manager, he would find silver and other interesting things once in a while. I'm on the fairly young side of collectors. I started out my collecting journey with the state quarter series and gradually transitioned to slabbed and type collecting as a I got older.
For me, I'll never stop collecting coins until I die, even if the hobby declines sharply (which I don't think will happen). For me, coin collecting is not an avenue of investment so much as something to enjoy. I have some things that I'm tied up in, and I don't think I'll ever make money off of them when I sell. Heck, I might even lose money.
Also, I've seen lots of younger numismatists getting into the hobby. Sure, at coin shows there might be a lot more gray haired old guys then kids running around, but the hobby does seem to be gaining traction especially on social media platforms.
God comes first in everything I do. I’m dedicated to serving Him with my whole life. Coin collecting is just a hobby—but even in that, I seek to honor Him. ✝️
Is that so. My standards for stamps and probably coins appear to be much higher than yours. That's why I've been usually disappointed with anything I have purchased on Ebay except for a barometer, a Granny quilt and several BU Lincoln cents from one particular seller.
I see no correlation today between the hobby/business of coin collecting/selling and society moving away from cash. Pretty archaic to think coins will go the way of stamps. About the dumbest thing I've read in 10 years!
@johnny010 said:
I see no correlation today between the hobby/business of coin collecting/selling and society moving away from cash. Pretty archaic to think coins will go the way of stamps. About the dumbest thing I've read in 10 years!
Someone who is willing to pay 100K + for an 81-S in a slab, must also agree!
@johnny010 said:
I see no correlation today between the hobby/business of coin collecting/selling and society moving away from cash. Pretty archaic to think coins will go the way of stamps. About the dumbest thing I've read in 10 years!
Someone who is willing to pay 100K + for an 81-S in a slab, must also agree!
Inverted Jennys set records whenever they come up. That says nothing about the bottom of the market. Arguably, you already see this with coins. It is somewhat masked by the bullion value in some sectors. But the bottom of the market is not doing as well as the top. Modern proof and Mint sets are approaching face value. Most modern commems are at intrinsic. I know a dealer who is considering tossing full good Barber coinage into his 90% bags because there is no numismatic premium left. The price of common date, circulated classics have mostly not moved up with the top of the market.
@johnny010 said:
I see no correlation today between the hobby/business of coin collecting/selling and society moving away from cash. Pretty archaic to think coins will go the way of stamps. About the dumbest thing I've read in 10 years!
What's strange is that you can't see the signs and trajectory of the last 40 years. CoinWorld subscriptions peaked in the 1960's. Almost every kid had a Whitman folder and tried filling it up from circulation. I remember swapping Lincolns with a kid at school in the 70's.
The world of coins has lost the organic growth it once had, just like stamps did. I remember a Stamp Club at my school. When's the last time you saw that?
Sure, coins will always be around but it's going to be a market similar to stamps. Truly rare coins and classic coins will do well as affluent people continue to buy them. Everything else will be common junk sold in bulk.
We're never going back to the days when kids we're plugging holes in their Buffalo Nickel folder with VG coins, and riding their bike down to the local dealer to spend their allowance on that 31-s they've been dreaming about all summer.
@johnny010 said:
I see no correlation today between the hobby/business of coin collecting/selling and society moving away from cash. Pretty archaic to think coins will go the way of stamps. About the dumbest thing I've read in 10 years!
What's strange is that you can't see the signs and trajectory of the last 40 years. CoinWorld subscriptions peaked in the 1960's. Almost every kid had a Whitman folder and tried filling it up from circulation. I remember swapping Lincolns with a kid at school in the 70's.
The world of coins has lost the organic growth it once had, just like stamps did. I remember a Stamp Club at my school. When's the last time you saw that?
Sure, coins will always be around but it's going to be a market similar to stamps. Truly rare coins and classic coins will do well as affluent people continue to buy them. Everything else will be common junk sold in bulk.
We're never going back to the days when kids we're plugging holes in their Buffalo Nickel folder with VG coins, and riding their bike down to the local dealer to spend their allowance on that 31-s they've been dreaming about all summer.
This is a possible outcome. I think you see signs of it already in the bottom end of the market (per my previous post).
That's why the discussion shouldn't be binary. It's not whether coin collecting completely (and suddenly) disappears. It's about whether there is enough erosion in the hobby to cause a price melt. That's really what happened in stamps.
For the record - and this doesn't capture the IG audience - ANA membership is about 25,000 and APS membership is about 21,000.
The all time high for the APS was 58,000 in 1988 while the ANA membership peaked in the early 1990s at 32,000. Yes, stamps were historically a bigger hobby than coins.
@johnny010 said:
I see no correlation today between the hobby/business of coin collecting/selling and society moving away from cash. Pretty archaic to think coins will go the way of stamps. About the dumbest thing I've read in 10 years!
Before I saw “Wow” in response to your post, I want to try to make sure I didn’t misinterpret it.
Are you of the opinion that interest in and collecting of objects such as stamps, coins, cards, records, etc. isn’t influenced by collectors’ in-hand familiarity (and in particular, their early experiences) with them?
It’s one thing to have a different opinion as to what the future might bring. It’s another, entirely, to say that a different view is “about the dumbest thing I’ve read in 10 years”.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@johnny010 said:
I see no correlation today between the hobby/business of coin collecting/selling and society moving away from cash. Pretty archaic to think coins will go the way of stamps. About the dumbest thing I've read in 10 years!
Before I saw “Wow” in response to your post, I want to try to make sure I didn’t misinterpret it.
Are you of the opinion that interest in and collecting of objects such as stamps, coins, cards, records, etc. isn’t influenced by collectors’ in-hand familiarity (and in particular, their early experiences) with them?
It’s one thing to have a different opinion as to what the future might bring. It’s another, entirely, to say that a different view is “about the dumbest thing I’ve read in 10 years”.
Recently there was a thread regarding a large number of fake sports memorabilia and autographs uncovered in this country, perpetrated by someone many people thought was legitimate. This will always be a problem with memorabilia and autographs - you can only be guaranteed authenticity if you, personally, got the autograph from the athlete.
Coins, on the other hand, are much easier to authenticate. Plus many are made of precious metals - silver, platinum, gold - and as such, will always have an intrinsic value.
Finally, there will always be a contingent of people who will never trust anything but cash, no matter how safe digital currency may seem.
@johnny010 said:
I see no correlation today between the hobby/business of coin collecting/selling and society moving away from cash. Pretty archaic to think coins will go the way of stamps. About the dumbest thing I've read in 10 years!
Before I saw “Wow” in response to your post, I want to try to make sure I didn’t misinterpret it.
Are you of the opinion that interest in and collecting of objects such as stamps, coins, cards, records, etc. isn’t influenced by collectors’ in-hand familiarity (and in particular, their early experiences) with them?
It’s one thing to have a different opinion as to what the future might bring. It’s another, entirely, to say that a different view is “about the dumbest thing I’ve read in 10 years”.
Well, to be fair, if you look at his profile, it makes sense.
This thread is an interesting read. Hard core collectors refuse to believe that their market can ever decline. The decline has already begun but, as has already been mentioned, the high price of bullion is masking just how serious the decline actually is. Forty years ago, at a stamp club meeting, I predicted the coming decline of the stamp market. My comments were dismissed as being absurd by nearly all of the members present.
Recently there was a thread regarding a large number of fake sports memorabilia and autographs uncovered in this country, perpetrated by someone many people thought was legitimate. This will always be a problem with memorabilia and autographs - you can only be guaranteed authenticity if you, personally, got the autograph from the athlete.
Coins, on the other hand, are much easier to authenticate. Plus many are made of precious metals - silver, platinum, gold - and as such, will always have an intrinsic value.
Finally, there will always be a contingent of people who will never trust anything but cash, no matter how safe digital currency may seem.
Just ideas to consider.
On authentication, I have thought that it is a matter of time before a near perfect counterfeit of coins (morgans, pre-33 gold, etc.) inundates the market and years later is discovered. Might be the second coming of the big bang theory for the industry.
Coming from a non-dealer perspective, I never collected coins until I was about 40 years old. Never cared to. It happened, and I really enjoy the hobby. When we were kids, stamps/coins were to be mailed and spent, records were to be played much and as loud as possible. The only activities were baseball, basketball, football, etc., did not matter if it was organized play or not, all we did was play. Today, kids will play, but mostly organized and very structured. Nothing wrong, just reality. Too much time looking down at their hand to see what is happening and what to do.
One thing from my experience is that once you invest some time into the history and physically holding and looking at coins from the past, it is way cool. It is a bug. As long as some do this it will survive and possibly thrive.
Battles are won and battles are lost...it is who wins the war. The 2nd Protects the 1st.
I recall years ago when marketing materials for new coins like the Ike dollar and the Bicentennial coins were placed in banks and post offices to promote the coins to the general (non-coin collecting) public. Same for the Carson City silver dollar auctions.
I realize that marketing practices have evolved since then but aside from the state quarter series and to some extent the Presidential Dollar series, I'm not sure there has been any official effort to promote coins as collectables to the general public.
It's very possible that the reason is diminished interest or receptability among the general public, so I am not blaming the mint/treasury for the decline in collectors.
It just seems that new issues such as commems, privies, etc. are aimed squarely at existing collectors. I'm not even sure there is much if any promotion of commemorative coin programs even by the organizations that benefit from them.
I suspect that new coin issues largely exist inside a bubble of existing coin collectors.
A few new collectors find the hobby, but not enough to sustain the population.
Recently there was a thread regarding a large number of fake sports memorabilia and autographs uncovered in this country, perpetrated by someone many people thought was legitimate. This will always be a problem with memorabilia and autographs - you can only be guaranteed authenticity if you, personally, got the autograph from the athlete.
Coins, on the other hand, are much easier to authenticate. Plus many are made of precious metals - silver, platinum, gold - and as such, will always have an intrinsic value.
Finally, there will always be a contingent of people who will never trust anything but cash, no matter how safe digital currency may seem.
Just ideas to consider.
You might consider how many counterfeit coins are out there... including some Morgans that fooled the market for a century.
@291fifth said:
This thread is an interesting read. Hard core collectors refuse to believe that their market can ever decline. The decline has already begun but, as has already been mentioned, the high price of bullion is masking just how serious the decline actually is. Forty years ago, at a stamp club meeting, I predicted the coming decline of the stamp market. My comments were dismissed as being absurd by nearly all of the members present.
And 10 or 15 years into the decline, stamp collectors were still calling it a "buying opportunity".
"You might consider how many counterfeit coins are out there... including some Morgans that fooled the market for a century."
You are absolutely correct. Although the scale is not anywhere as bad as the one case reported this year. It was a reported $350 million in fake items. And that's just one case this year.
@Shabu92 said:
"You might consider how many counterfeit coins are out there... including some Morgans that fooled the market for a century."
You are absolutely correct. Although the scale is not anywhere as bad as the one case reported this year. It was a reported $350 million in fake items. And that's just one case this year.
If you're talking about Mancave, no one believes that number is accurate. But that is rather beside the point. The number of counterfeit Morgans is itself in the millions.
My two sons (now 34 and 32 years old) were dedicated collectors of PoKeman, DiGiman and other assorted cards when they were in K-12 (and even into their 20's).
Are the K-12 kids of today collectors of those kinds of cards, or has that market died?
I suspect that 50 years from now there will be numerous old gray haired people who still collect those kinds of cards (if for no reason other than nostaliga).
Comments
Ok,
Were collectors collecting in 1790 and up?
Yes.
Were they in 1800's and up?
Yes.
1900's and up?
Yes.
2000's and up?
Yes.
What makes you think all of a sudden coins will stop being collected when we have collected relics of the past for centuries? Including those weird things called... coins
People always collected coins, not stamps.
Free shipping, 10% Off First Order - Jay's Coins
Whatnot!
This is my opinion too, starting with post-1933 for US coinage. Decades from now, I'm sticking with my prior opinion that even if collecting resembles its current form, the vast majority will sell for the cost or grading or minimal premiums to silver spot in grades up to MS-66.
There is also world's greatest credit bubble and asset mania.
Not true! People didn't collect coins before about 650BC when coins were first minted.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The scene at our small monthly show today.
Pretty busy for a summer show in FL, plenty of older folks, but some younger ones were present:
That's because your posts indicate you view coins as financial "widgets". I don't recall a single post of yours where you've ever indicated any interest in any coin as a collectible. The thread topic doesn't matter. You're always writing about how you can make money off of it.
If someone wants to buy coins as "widgets", there are far more liquid options with scale for supposed "investment". Coins are not competitive. Diversification? Maybe for the very few who know what they are doing.
The main factor I can think of in favor of your sentiments is the (apparent) trend in metal prices. Short to intermediate term, I agree this should provide a lot of support for generic gold and silver coins, like common Morgan dollars and pre-1933 gold up to low MS grades. A lot less to none for other coinage, depending upon the coin.
Concurrently, there are numerous negative factors, starting with the current artificial economy and the concurrent asset mania which substantially inflates paper wealth, economic statistics, and with it, living standards. The end of this artificial economy = the majority of Americans become poorer or a lot poorer over the indefinite future.
Second, there is demographics. Prior posts have mentioned one likely impact, but for US coinage in particular, currently defined minority groups don't have the same perception toward collecting, and to the extent they do collect, less toward US coinage vs. the current collector base. No, the lower participation rate is not due to a lack of money. It's a lack of interest. Enough of these people have money for most or seemingly everything else, but they don't spend it on coins. Some level of affluence is a necessary precondition, but no amount of increasing affluence alone will ever convert anyone into collecting anything, not just coins.
I don’t think that coins will stop being collected. However, there’s an extremely significant headwind working against the hobby…
Most collectors of the past were introduced to (and started collecting) coins because and while they were circulating. And although it’s not happening “all of a sudden”, as time goes on, fewer and fewer coins are circulating. As a result, a significant number of potential future collectors will probably never get started.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Tough stamp to find! Enjoy the search!
So you're gruntled?
There are 1000 of them on eBay
The Mayans valued chocolate more than gold, do you?
You are not open to facts or discussion. Your sole argument is that Coins are different and that will never change. That is not an argument or a fact but just an assumption.
Lol. Nor for most of the next 2000 years until the Renaissance.
you're overly broad with your overly harsh-ness
there are bluehairs that have served and those that didn't deserve some benefit of the doubt respect as an elder
I would be more concerned about sports cards. MLB history and knowledge does not seem to drive the market as much as just rookie and HOF players' cards. On the vintage side, the are many significant players that simply do not have the following they deserve and as time passes, I doubt that this will improve. The collecting mentality seems difficult to understand and even more problematic to explain,
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I disagree.
The argument I make still I think holds. Say Abiz Delouh of Egypt in the BC times collected special made Mint Egyptian coins, he collected them out of his heart at a young age and never stopped. The US Mint, they make tons of coins for this reason. The collector.
I know you're very intelligent, but these "headwinds" will never stop people from collecting. Period. No argument or retort needed.
The market is hotter than ever. See the last Heritage auctions on Ancient, World? Unbelieveable prices.
Couldn't win a thing!
Now Mr. Old farts who die / coins die, is a sports memorabilia dealer if I didnt mention. :Rolls eyes:
He don't like coins like we do..
He is wrong. That's why it was heated. I am former / worked with Law Enforcement, believe me, this guy was no stranger to the department side too. It was a battle of egos mainly.
Nobody won, but I walked away with the firm opinion (unwavering fyi) that coins will never die with the times. Collector's will collect forever.
I may sometimes try to make some dollars in this game.. however, I am a diehard collector and nobody insults my hobby like that. Mark, how tf can coins ever dry up? Collectors will collect anything forever
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I didn't include each time period for sake of time and effort, but I argue coins do last the test of time because inherently they are valuable generally, have monetary value, are from time periods people touched that are historic that will never be erased, and are part of cultures. Henceforth, the US Mint and many World mints churning out millions of coins a year soley to feed the collector's universe
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The future for coins collecting and dealing is very bright. just check out Summer ANA and Witter University where there are many YNs that are very bright, eager to learn and energetic about coins. They were buying & selling coins throughout the day. Just amazing. Anyone that thinks coin collecting will die like stamps are living in a shell.
So said stamp collectors in 1999...
Keep your blinders on. It allows you to be surprised when history unfolds on its own without your bias.
NO ONE knows what will happen. You should be open to the real possibility that you are wrong.
There are still millions of stamp collectors. Trophy stamps continue to set records
It is best to think in less binary terms.
Is that so. My standards for stamps and probably coins appear to be much higher than yours. That's why I've been usually disappointed with anything I have purchased on Ebay except for a barometer, a Granny quilt and several BU Lincoln cents from one particular seller.
Being open to the possibility that one is wrong is a strong character trait and one I seek to improve upon.
Of course you disagree - based on your posts I would have been shocked if you didn’t.😉
I’m sure many people agree with you and that many others don’t.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Sorry, wrong thread.
And of course, @jmlanzaf has no bias, we all know that……………...
I'll take metal over paper any day.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
yes. stay off the crypto topic
Everyone has a bias or perception filter. However, I'm open to both possible outcomes. I don't think that stamps or coins MUST disappear as a collectible. I also don't think that stamps or coins MUST thrive as a collectible.
There's really no reason to make this personal.
Here's my two cents. Forgive me if this is a somewhat longer post.
I've been collecting coins since age 5. My dad gave me some of his coins that he'd collected as a kid, and as a gas station manager, he would find silver and other interesting things once in a while. I'm on the fairly young side of collectors. I started out my collecting journey with the state quarter series and gradually transitioned to slabbed and type collecting as a I got older.
For me, I'll never stop collecting coins until I die, even if the hobby declines sharply (which I don't think will happen). For me, coin collecting is not an avenue of investment so much as something to enjoy. I have some things that I'm tied up in, and I don't think I'll ever make money off of them when I sell. Heck, I might even lose money.
Also, I've seen lots of younger numismatists getting into the hobby. Sure, at coin shows there might be a lot more gray haired old guys then kids running around, but the hobby does seem to be gaining traction especially on social media platforms.
God comes first in everything I do. I’m dedicated to serving Him with my whole life. Coin collecting is just a hobby—but even in that, I seek to honor Him. ✝️
True dat. Buyer beware.
I see no correlation today between the hobby/business of coin collecting/selling and society moving away from cash. Pretty archaic to think coins will go the way of stamps. About the dumbest thing I've read in 10 years!
Someone who is willing to pay 100K + for an 81-S in a slab, must also agree!
Inverted Jennys set records whenever they come up. That says nothing about the bottom of the market. Arguably, you already see this with coins. It is somewhat masked by the bullion value in some sectors. But the bottom of the market is not doing as well as the top. Modern proof and Mint sets are approaching face value. Most modern commems are at intrinsic. I know a dealer who is considering tossing full good Barber coinage into his 90% bags because there is no numismatic premium left. The price of common date, circulated classics have mostly not moved up with the top of the market.
What's strange is that you can't see the signs and trajectory of the last 40 years. CoinWorld subscriptions peaked in the 1960's. Almost every kid had a Whitman folder and tried filling it up from circulation. I remember swapping Lincolns with a kid at school in the 70's.
The world of coins has lost the organic growth it once had, just like stamps did. I remember a Stamp Club at my school. When's the last time you saw that?
Sure, coins will always be around but it's going to be a market similar to stamps. Truly rare coins and classic coins will do well as affluent people continue to buy them. Everything else will be common junk sold in bulk.
We're never going back to the days when kids we're plugging holes in their Buffalo Nickel folder with VG coins, and riding their bike down to the local dealer to spend their allowance on that 31-s they've been dreaming about all summer.
This is a possible outcome. I think you see signs of it already in the bottom end of the market (per my previous post).
That's why the discussion shouldn't be binary. It's not whether coin collecting completely (and suddenly) disappears. It's about whether there is enough erosion in the hobby to cause a price melt. That's really what happened in stamps.
For the record - and this doesn't capture the IG audience - ANA membership is about 25,000 and APS membership is about 21,000.
The all time high for the APS was 58,000 in 1988 while the ANA membership peaked in the early 1990s at 32,000. Yes, stamps were historically a bigger hobby than coins.
Really.
The bias I read is confidence in well-considered opinion and clear expression.
Before I saw “Wow” in response to your post, I want to try to make sure I didn’t misinterpret it.
Are you of the opinion that interest in and collecting of objects such as stamps, coins, cards, records, etc. isn’t influenced by collectors’ in-hand familiarity (and in particular, their early experiences) with them?
It’s one thing to have a different opinion as to what the future might bring. It’s another, entirely, to say that a different view is “about the dumbest thing I’ve read in 10 years”.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Are you new here? 🤣
Just a little aside for thought.
Recently there was a thread regarding a large number of fake sports memorabilia and autographs uncovered in this country, perpetrated by someone many people thought was legitimate. This will always be a problem with memorabilia and autographs - you can only be guaranteed authenticity if you, personally, got the autograph from the athlete.
Coins, on the other hand, are much easier to authenticate. Plus many are made of precious metals - silver, platinum, gold - and as such, will always have an intrinsic value.
Finally, there will always be a contingent of people who will never trust anything but cash, no matter how safe digital currency may seem.
Just ideas to consider.
Well, to be fair, if you look at his profile, it makes sense.
This thread is an interesting read. Hard core collectors refuse to believe that their market can ever decline. The decline has already begun but, as has already been mentioned, the high price of bullion is masking just how serious the decline actually is. Forty years ago, at a stamp club meeting, I predicted the coming decline of the stamp market. My comments were dismissed as being absurd by nearly all of the members present.
On authentication, I have thought that it is a matter of time before a near perfect counterfeit of coins (morgans, pre-33 gold, etc.) inundates the market and years later is discovered. Might be the second coming of the big bang theory for the industry.
Coming from a non-dealer perspective, I never collected coins until I was about 40 years old. Never cared to. It happened, and I really enjoy the hobby. When we were kids, stamps/coins were to be mailed and spent, records were to be played much and as loud as possible. The only activities were baseball, basketball, football, etc., did not matter if it was organized play or not, all we did was play. Today, kids will play, but mostly organized and very structured. Nothing wrong, just reality. Too much time looking down at their hand to see what is happening and what to do.
One thing from my experience is that once you invest some time into the history and physically holding and looking at coins from the past, it is way cool. It is a bug. As long as some do this it will survive and possibly thrive.
I recall years ago when marketing materials for new coins like the Ike dollar and the Bicentennial coins were placed in banks and post offices to promote the coins to the general (non-coin collecting) public. Same for the Carson City silver dollar auctions.
I realize that marketing practices have evolved since then but aside from the state quarter series and to some extent the Presidential Dollar series, I'm not sure there has been any official effort to promote coins as collectables to the general public.
It's very possible that the reason is diminished interest or receptability among the general public, so I am not blaming the mint/treasury for the decline in collectors.
It just seems that new issues such as commems, privies, etc. are aimed squarely at existing collectors. I'm not even sure there is much if any promotion of commemorative coin programs even by the organizations that benefit from them.
I suspect that new coin issues largely exist inside a bubble of existing coin collectors.
A few new collectors find the hobby, but not enough to sustain the population.
You might consider how many counterfeit coins are out there... including some Morgans that fooled the market for a century.
And 10 or 15 years into the decline, stamp collectors were still calling it a "buying opportunity".
"You might consider how many counterfeit coins are out there... including some Morgans that fooled the market for a century."
You are absolutely correct. Although the scale is not anywhere as bad as the one case reported this year. It was a reported $350 million in fake items. And that's just one case this year.
If you're talking about Mancave, no one believes that number is accurate. But that is rather beside the point. The number of counterfeit Morgans is itself in the millions.
My two sons (now 34 and 32 years old) were dedicated collectors of PoKeman, DiGiman and other assorted cards when they were in K-12 (and even into their 20's).
Are the K-12 kids of today collectors of those kinds of cards, or has that market died?
I suspect that 50 years from now there will be numerous old gray haired people who still collect those kinds of cards (if for no reason other than nostaliga).
I think coins will always retain there value because of their metallic content and the history behind them.