I realize they are a long shot, but I do think the Patriots have a chance to do some damage this season. It wouldn't surprise me if at the end of the season, their ATS record is in the positive.
No sense rehashing it, but I firmly predicted that Patriots head coach last season would be fired, and it was an easy call. He tried a sort of "coddling" approach, and that crap just wasn't going to work with NFL players. Yet they still won 4 games. We shall see what Vrabel can do.
I don't understand that Patriots-Raiders line? I mean the Patriots are going to be playing at a playoff level intensity, to try to get their new coach his first win. The Raiders stink. Yet the Patriots are only -3 at home? I thought that line would be around Patriots -5 1/2, maybe a bit higher. I guess the books are seeing something I'm not seeing.
@perkdog said:
Detroit and Cincy is who I like on paper but in all probability I'll bet against Cincy since they just can't win games right after training camp
Interesting angle. Of course angles don't always repeat. That being said, I doubt if the bookies computer would pick up on that angle in the odds. So there may be some positive value there.
Frankly, since closely following it last September, I was amazed at how their computer picks up on various other angles, that I thought it wouldn't pick up on. I'd be following a game live, and see an interesting angle, figuring the odds would be very nicely in my favor. But their dam computer already had that angle factored into the odds.
Lions' Morice Norris leaves preseason game in ambulance after blow to the head
"Norris was hurt with 14:50 to go trying to tackle Nathan Carter. There was no immediate report on the injury. When play resumed, Falcons quarterback Emory Jones took a snap and then held the ball as players from both teams stood at the line of scrimmage and the clock continued to run. Finally, with 6:31 left, an official announced the game had been suspended "per New York."
Good grief - a new innovative way to lose a football bet.
Of course if you're on the winning side of it, you happily cashed it.
Lions' Morice Norris leaves preseason game in ambulance after blow to the head
"Norris was hurt with 14:50 to go trying to tackle Nathan Carter. There was no immediate report on the injury. When play resumed, Falcons quarterback Emory Jones took a snap and then held the ball as players from both teams stood at the line of scrimmage and the clock continued to run. Finally, with 6:31 left, an official announced the game had been suspended "per New York."
Good grief - a new innovative way to lose a football bet.
Of course if you're on the winning side of it, you happily cashed it.
Wonder how many sharpies made a small fortune anticipating this was happening, or even knowing this would happen, and went all-in on the live bet knowing they couldn't lose? Of course they'd have to do it very timely, before the info caught up to the computer.
Also i wonder if it was a lot of money involved, if the bookies paid off on it? Maybe not?
Couldn't find any further info on this Lions-Falcons preseason game, concerning the bookies. I mean i think with around 14 minutes left in the game, the players decided to no longer play, and just let the game clock run out. I think the NFL does have this listed as an official game.
That being said, sharp bettors, especially those at the game, could have absolutely hammered that game in every which way. It's like knowing the final score, 14 minutes in advance. My guess is the bookies very quickly saw the situation, and suspended live betting on the game, otherwise I think there would have been quite a few stories about it.
Once again Tommy Fleetwood is in a position to gain his first PGA win in 182 attempts. Bhatia in 6th place. Will one erase recent disappointments? Does Scottie have them right where he wants them? Should be a great closing round on Sunday.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
When you bet on NFL games do you ever look at which crew is officiating?
i don't, but probably should. but then again, when it comes to gambling i do a lot of things i don't but should and do but shouldn't. take betting against Scottie Scheffler, for instance. which is something i brilliantly did this weekend.
btw, i'm sure you know this but i'd be willing to bet there are some who don't. first of all, love the Brewers' logo. second, look closely..........there's an 'm' and a 'b'
I don't handicap football betting that deep. I imagine the betting line is established with that factor in as well. Along with game on grass instead of astro turf,the weather,QB had a fight with his wife that day, and all the other incidentals us bettors are unaware of. They know.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@bgr said:
When you bet on NFL games do you ever look at which crew is officiating?
Last year, you didn't need any complicated strategy, as the NFL favorites won at such a high percentage that the quarterly reports for the sports betting sites made note of that as an excuse for the poor financial performance. If you just bet various combinations of favorites in 3 leg parlays, you made a killing.
Then there was the Kansas City Chiefs, where Roger Goodell made sure that they'd win every game in spectacularly improbable ways. If you just ignored all of the noise, and bet the Chiefs, you made a killing.
The dark web is recruiting crisis actors to portray whiny Bills' fans again this year, so I suspect once again that a pretty safe play is to just bet the Chiefs, and you'll make a killing.
I was curious whether a flag-happy crew or an inconsistent crew would have much impact on a betting line and what that impact might actually be.
It would be a fun project to train a classification system with myriad variables. KNN. I’ve been teaching my oldest programming and this is a great project for him and a good opportunity to teach him about how gambling works. I’m no expert myself. What are the variables which are correlated most with winning or losing?
That "ref angle" is an interesting angle, something that I certainly doubt would be programmed into the bookies computer.
In my opinion, at least some of those Chiefs games last season had some very suspicious calls, of course favoring the Chiefs. The old saying is something happening twice is a coincidence, but three times is a pattern. And the calls favoring the Chiefs in key parts of the game, sure seemed like a pattern.
@bgr said:
I was curious whether a flag-happy crew or an inconsistent crew would have much impact on a betting line and what that impact might actually be.
It would be a fun project to train a classification system with myriad variables. KNN. I’ve been teaching my oldest programming and this is a great project for him and a good opportunity to teach him about how gambling works. I’m no expert myself. What are the variables which are correlated most with winning or losing?
The finest book ever written, by far, about gambling is "Scarne's New Complete Guide to Gambling" by John Scarne. It's still relevant today, even though it was first published in 1974. For example it doesn't have anything about hold 'em poker because that game wasn't popular back in 1974. But it has a world of advice about playing poker, cheating techniques used in poker, and very detailed info on most other gambling games, etc. Its over 800 pages long.
Scarne actually used to advise casinos on the way their gambling games should operate. One interesting thing he did was some casinos were getting killed from whales with various martingale type systems. Scarne is the one who told them to cap their wagering amounts to prevent a whale from getting hot, and wind-up owning their casino. He tells this story in the book.
@stevek said:
Couldn't find any further info on this Lions-Falcons preseason game, concerning the bookies. I mean i think with around 14 minutes left in the game, the players decided to no longer play, and just let the game clock run out. I think the NFL does have this listed as an official game.
That being said, sharp bettors, especially those at the game, could have absolutely hammered that game in every which way. It's like knowing the final score, 14 minutes in advance. My guess is the bookies very quickly saw the situation, and suspended live betting on the game, otherwise I think there would have been quite a few stories about it.
I didnt see anything regarding this game, but depending on the situation they are within their rights to cancel bets if the game gets stopped before completion
I would think that they voided all bets since the full. game wasn't played
@stevek said:
Couldn't find any further info on this Lions-Falcons preseason game, concerning the bookies. I mean i think with around 14 minutes left in the game, the players decided to no longer play, and just let the game clock run out. I think the NFL does have this listed as an official game.
That being said, sharp bettors, especially those at the game, could have absolutely hammered that game in every which way. It's like knowing the final score, 14 minutes in advance. My guess is the bookies very quickly saw the situation, and suspended live betting on the game, otherwise I think there would have been quite a few stories about it.
I didnt see anything regarding this game, but depending on the situation they are within their rights to cancel bets if the game gets stopped before completion
I would think that they voided all bets since the full. game wasn't played
I'm gonna agree with ya, and I think you're right.
I was sort of thinking along the lines of a MLB game which after I think it's 5 innings, if it gets rained out, it's still an official game, and I think the bookies pay off on that.
Of course this NFL game wasn't the exact same scenario with the reason for the stoppage. I could see the books not paying out this NFL game on the spreads. I'm gonna guess that they did pay out on the winning prop bets on this NFL game, say a player scoring a touchdown prop, who did score a touchdown. I can't see them rescinding that.
Golf plays this week. Scottie,(surprise), win and top 5,Xander top 5,Aberg top 10, Cantlay top 20. And a bet on a playoff result.
you nailed Scottie, nailed Cantlay, and caught a dead heater with Aberg................well done 💪
the only one you whiffed on is the dude i took
and if i'm reading this correctly, you placed a bet on it going to a playoff? if so, really well done
btw, i've pestered a lot of these players for graphs and i'm here to tell you that Justin Rose is a top-5 nice guy. was thrilled that he won.
Yes, had a play on a playoff at 4-1. My reasoning was that if Scottie fell short and did not run away with a low score ,the other group of golfers had no standouts so felt they could be closer to each other competitively. I had to sweat out Justin's final shot in reg. Had to hope he missed it nessessitating a PO. Aberg came on late to nail a top 10. Thanks for the positive comments.👍. Had to feel bad for Tommy though. Was gracious in his interview, but you could tell he hurt.
Down to 50 entrants next week. I like the fact that all start out even par in the Playoffs, unlike last year.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
I don't handicap football betting that deep. I imagine the betting line is established with that factor in as well. Along with game on grass instead of astro turf,the weather,QB had a fight with his wife that day, and all the other incidentals us bettors are unaware of. They know.
I thought that sounded familiar. Here's a paragraph from a 1970 Sport Magazine article.
.
.
Here's the entirety of the 2 part article for anyone interested. Found in the 1970 April and May issues.
.
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
I don't handicap football betting that deep. I imagine the betting line is established with that factor in as well. Along with game on grass instead of astro turf,the weather,QB had a fight with his wife that day, and all the other incidentals us bettors are unaware of. They know.
I thought that sounded familiar. Here's a paragraph from a 1970 Sport Magazine article.
.
I only read the first "page" of your post. No desire to read the rest. If anyone honestly believes that anybody could possibly accurately gather all that information listed, then they are out of their minds.
If fact sometimes it works just the opposite. One of my best game calls ever, I accurately called and posted it here at Sports Talk, the first Super Bowl win for the Eagles, including exactly how it ended. Everybody including their mother was saying the Patriots would win that game easily, especially because a virus had run rampant thru the Eagles team. Many Eagles players were sick. I emphatically stated that the opposite effect would take place. That their adrenaline would overcome and compensate for their sickness, and for 60 minutes of football playing time, the team would actually play better than normal, and that's exactly what happened.
Their are many stories out there whereby an athlete suffers say a family tragedy of some sort, and the following game plays magnificently.
I've never seen any, none, zero, nada, independently documented evidence of anyone beating sports betting before this computer age. Admittedly, now with countless millions of sports betting offers changing by the second, I think it may be possible, maybe, for a smart disciplined player to perhaps find computer flaws in the line to his advantage.
Frankly, I've only found one "possible" evidence of somebody beating the sports books pre-computer, and that was from Chip Reese who stated he was beating MLB. But of course professional poker players are notorious liars. So even though I liked Chip and I think he was the greatest poker player of all time, I don't fully believe he was being honest in his assessment about his sports betting skills. His great poker playing skill was undeniable.
Comments
And so. it begins 😅
AND the Bears to win
Dogs at home against Minny......so disrespectful
Our offense is about to open a can
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
I realize they are a long shot, but I do think the Patriots have a chance to do some damage this season. It wouldn't surprise me if at the end of the season, their ATS record is in the positive.
No sense rehashing it, but I firmly predicted that Patriots head coach last season would be fired, and it was an easy call. He tried a sort of "coddling" approach, and that crap just wasn't going to work with NFL players. Yet they still won 4 games. We shall see what Vrabel can do.
I don't understand that Patriots-Raiders line? I mean the Patriots are going to be playing at a playoff level intensity, to try to get their new coach his first win. The Raiders stink. Yet the Patriots are only -3 at home? I thought that line would be around Patriots -5 1/2, maybe a bit higher. I guess the books are seeing something I'm not seeing.
That Chiefs-Chargers line also looks off to me. I would think the Chiefs would be hungry as yell to get a win off their Super Bowl debacle.
The Chargers aren't a bad team, but they were only 5-3 last season at home. I thought the Chiefs would be -4 1/2 maybe -5?
Always tough to tell if you've found a good value or your analysis is missing something?
Be interesting to see how those lines move heading up to the game.
Detroit and Cincy is who I like on paper but in all probability I'll bet against Cincy since they just can't win games right after training camp
Interesting angle. Of course angles don't always repeat. That being said, I doubt if the bookies computer would pick up on that angle in the odds. So there may be some positive value there.
Frankly, since closely following it last September, I was amazed at how their computer picks up on various other angles, that I thought it wouldn't pick up on. I'd be following a game live, and see an interesting angle, figuring the odds would be very nicely in my favor. But their dam computer already had that angle factored into the odds.
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/lions-morice-norris-leaves-preseason-game-ambulance-after-blow-head
Lions' Morice Norris leaves preseason game in ambulance after blow to the head
"Norris was hurt with 14:50 to go trying to tackle Nathan Carter. There was no immediate report on the injury. When play resumed, Falcons quarterback Emory Jones took a snap and then held the ball as players from both teams stood at the line of scrimmage and the clock continued to run. Finally, with 6:31 left, an official announced the game had been suspended "per New York."
Good grief - a new innovative way to lose a football bet.
Of course if you're on the winning side of it, you happily cashed it.
Wonder how many sharpies made a small fortune anticipating this was happening, or even knowing this would happen, and went all-in on the live bet knowing they couldn't lose? Of course they'd have to do it very timely, before the info caught up to the computer.
Also i wonder if it was a lot of money involved, if the bookies paid off on it? Maybe not?
Couldn't find any further info on this Lions-Falcons preseason game, concerning the bookies. I mean i think with around 14 minutes left in the game, the players decided to no longer play, and just let the game clock run out. I think the NFL does have this listed as an official game.
That being said, sharp bettors, especially those at the game, could have absolutely hammered that game in every which way. It's like knowing the final score, 14 minutes in advance. My guess is the bookies very quickly saw the situation, and suspended live betting on the game, otherwise I think there would have been quite a few stories about it.
Once again Tommy Fleetwood is in a position to gain his first PGA win in 182 attempts. Bhatia in 6th place. Will one erase recent disappointments? Does Scottie have them right where he wants them? Should be a great closing round on Sunday.
received a text from Scottie this morning
"don't EVER do that again"
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
When you bet on NFL games do you ever look at which crew is officiating?
i don't, but probably should. but then again, when it comes to gambling i do a lot of things i don't but should and do but shouldn't. take betting against Scottie Scheffler, for instance. which is something i brilliantly did this weekend.
btw, i'm sure you know this but i'd be willing to bet there are some who don't. first of all, love the Brewers' logo. second, look closely..........there's an 'm' and a 'b'
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
I don't handicap football betting that deep. I imagine the betting line is established with that factor in as well. Along with game on grass instead of astro turf,the weather,QB had a fight with his wife that day, and all the other incidentals us bettors are unaware of. They know.
Last year, you didn't need any complicated strategy, as the NFL favorites won at such a high percentage that the quarterly reports for the sports betting sites made note of that as an excuse for the poor financial performance. If you just bet various combinations of favorites in 3 leg parlays, you made a killing.
Then there was the Kansas City Chiefs, where Roger Goodell made sure that they'd win every game in spectacularly improbable ways. If you just ignored all of the noise, and bet the Chiefs, you made a killing.
The dark web is recruiting crisis actors to portray whiny Bills' fans again this year, so I suspect once again that a pretty safe play is to just bet the Chiefs, and you'll make a killing.
💰💰💰💵💵💵
I was curious whether a flag-happy crew or an inconsistent crew would have much impact on a betting line and what that impact might actually be.
It would be a fun project to train a classification system with myriad variables. KNN. I’ve been teaching my oldest programming and this is a great project for him and a good opportunity to teach him about how gambling works. I’m no expert myself. What are the variables which are correlated most with winning or losing?
That "ref angle" is an interesting angle, something that I certainly doubt would be programmed into the bookies computer.
In my opinion, at least some of those Chiefs games last season had some very suspicious calls, of course favoring the Chiefs. The old saying is something happening twice is a coincidence, but three times is a pattern. And the calls favoring the Chiefs in key parts of the game, sure seemed like a pattern.
The finest book ever written, by far, about gambling is "Scarne's New Complete Guide to Gambling" by John Scarne. It's still relevant today, even though it was first published in 1974. For example it doesn't have anything about hold 'em poker because that game wasn't popular back in 1974. But it has a world of advice about playing poker, cheating techniques used in poker, and very detailed info on most other gambling games, etc. Its over 800 pages long.
Scarne actually used to advise casinos on the way their gambling games should operate. One interesting thing he did was some casinos were getting killed from whales with various martingale type systems. Scarne is the one who told them to cap their wagering amounts to prevent a whale from getting hot, and wind-up owning their casino. He tells this story in the book.
I didnt see anything regarding this game, but depending on the situation they are within their rights to cancel bets if the game gets stopped before completion
I would think that they voided all bets since the full. game wasn't played
I'm gonna agree with ya, and I think you're right.
I was sort of thinking along the lines of a MLB game which after I think it's 5 innings, if it gets rained out, it's still an official game, and I think the bookies pay off on that.
Of course this NFL game wasn't the exact same scenario with the reason for the stoppage. I could see the books not paying out this NFL game on the spreads. I'm gonna guess that they did pay out on the winning prop bets on this NFL game, say a player scoring a touchdown prop, who did score a touchdown. I can't see them rescinding that.
you nailed Scottie, nailed Cantlay, and caught a dead heater with Aberg................well done 💪
the only one you whiffed on is the dude i took
and if i'm reading this correctly, you placed a bet on it going to a playoff? if so, really well done
btw, i've pestered a lot of these players for graphs and i'm here to tell you that Justin Rose is a top-5 nice guy. was thrilled that he won.
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Yes, had a play on a playoff at 4-1. My reasoning was that if Scottie fell short and did not run away with a low score ,the other group of golfers had no standouts so felt they could be closer to each other competitively. I had to sweat out Justin's final shot in reg. Had to hope he missed it nessessitating a PO. Aberg came on late to nail a top 10. Thanks for the positive comments.👍. Had to feel bad for Tommy though. Was gracious in his interview, but you could tell he hurt.
Down to 50 entrants next week. I like the fact that all start out even par in the Playoffs, unlike last year.
I thought that sounded familiar. Here's a paragraph from a 1970 Sport Magazine article.
.
.
Here's the entirety of the 2 part article for anyone interested. Found in the 1970 April and May issues.
.
I only read the first "page" of your post. No desire to read the rest. If anyone honestly believes that anybody could possibly accurately gather all that information listed, then they are out of their minds.
If fact sometimes it works just the opposite. One of my best game calls ever, I accurately called and posted it here at Sports Talk, the first Super Bowl win for the Eagles, including exactly how it ended. Everybody including their mother was saying the Patriots would win that game easily, especially because a virus had run rampant thru the Eagles team. Many Eagles players were sick. I emphatically stated that the opposite effect would take place. That their adrenaline would overcome and compensate for their sickness, and for 60 minutes of football playing time, the team would actually play better than normal, and that's exactly what happened.
Their are many stories out there whereby an athlete suffers say a family tragedy of some sort, and the following game plays magnificently.
I've never seen any, none, zero, nada, independently documented evidence of anyone beating sports betting before this computer age. Admittedly, now with countless millions of sports betting offers changing by the second, I think it may be possible, maybe, for a smart disciplined player to perhaps find computer flaws in the line to his advantage.
Frankly, I've only found one "possible" evidence of somebody beating the sports books pre-computer, and that was from Chip Reese who stated he was beating MLB. But of course professional poker players are notorious liars. So even though I liked Chip and I think he was the greatest poker player of all time, I don't fully believe he was being honest in his assessment about his sports betting skills. His great poker playing skill was undeniable.
BMW plays. Win-Scottie,Aberg, Cantlay. Top 5-Aberg,Cantlay. Top 20-Pendrift.
good luck homeboy, i'm sitting this week out
this may be the least surprising thing you read or hear all day..........Scottie is already -3 thru 7 and tied for first
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Thanks for the support. Yep. Following the action all day.