I remember paying big $ for the Hackie unc & some other low mintage commems when I first got into the hobby. Big mistake. Mintages just seem ti keep getting lower. I'm sure these kings won't be so for long
@jmlanzaf said:
Give it time. They all start out that way and 90% of them end up a bullion.
Is the 2020 W $50 gold eagle v75 with 1939 mintage going to sell for melt also?
These are all lower mintage.
Not a valid comparison.
You're comparing a "key date" on a wildly "popular" design (by coin standards) to designs where the vast majority of US collectors likely don't even know the coin exists. Or most will forget about it a few years down the road after the US Mint has issued several more and it's no longer a current year issue.
They almost entirely don't care. Acknowledging the last reply to my post as an exception for self-evident reasons, US collecting mostly doesn't care because no, they don't find it "interesting" at anywhere near current prices because it isn't competitive as a collectible. Anyone can buy the silver dollar for a low fraction if they like the theme that much.
The US Mint has over saturated the market with too many coins in this "series" (actually a random assortment of unrelated coins) with predominantly viewed mediocre designs and mediocre themes. The best indication of what I'm telling you is that every time this subject comes up, the reason for the claim is the mintage. I've yet to read a single exception. This should tell anyone everything they need to know of how the US collector base views this coinage (modern gold commemoratives) generically as a collectible, because no one from elsewhere is going to buy it either except for financial speculation too.
You're comparing a "key date" on a wildly "popular" design (by coin standards) to designs where the vast majority of US collectors likely don't even know the coin exists.
At one point the earlier key 1997 Jackie Robinson unc Gold coin was selling for nearly $5000 as a key, and it is part of this series. That is with a much higher mintage of about 5174 coins. So what has changed?
As the price of gold has risen, it has damped buyers of the series, to where we are now at record low sales.
However, the Jackie Robinson coin proved that buyers will pay up for the key coin(s), as they also ran up the prices for the 1995/96 Olympic gold coins back then as well. Also, the recent negro League baseball gold coin is very similar to the Jackie Robinson, and it sold far fewer coins due to the price of gold.
This is typical coin behavior in an ongoing series.
The higher premiums will come back at some point, once the dust has settled.
@jmlanzaf said:
Give it time. They all start out that way and 90% of them end up a bullion.
Is the 2020 W $50 gold eagle v75 with 1939 mintage going to sell for melt also?
These are all lower mintage.
I said 90% not 100%.
How many examples can you find of coins that did NOT sell out that carry a premium? I can only think of one. Even if they sell out, 70 to 80% of the time they end up at melt. But when they fail to sell out, it's more like 95% of them.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
@jmlanzaf said:
When something sells for bullion price or barely above, you don't put them on eBay.
Of coarse a coin dealer is only going to pay bullion, that doesn't mean that's what they sell for in the larger marketplace.
Harriet Tubman UNC gold sales completed prices on Ebay:
$1399.75
$1029.00
$1195.00
$1233.95
$1299.00
All over issue price, and well over bullion value.
Give it time. They all start out that way and 90% of them end up a bullion.
Or not.
The "or not" are in the 10%. Grab a greysheet and look at modern commems. The data is out there.
COULD the Tubman hold a premium? Sure. But Wondercoin doesn't 10s of thousands trying to support the Spousec rarities before he gave up. And the higher gold goes, the more the premium shrinks for these things.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
You're comparing a "key date" on a wildly "popular" design (by coin standards) to designs where the vast majority of US collectors likely don't even know the coin exists.
At one point the earlier key 1997 Jackie Robinson unc Gold coin was selling for nearly $5000 as a key, and it is part of this series. That is with a much higher mintage of about 5174 coins. So what has changed?
As the price of gold has risen, it has damped buyers of the series, to where we are now at record low sales.
However, the Jackie Robinson coin proved that buyers will pay up for the key coin(s), as they also ran up the prices for the 1995/96 Olympic gold coins back then as well. Also, the recent negro League baseball gold coin is very similar to the Jackie Robinson, and it sold far fewer coins due to the price of gold.
This is typical coin behavior in an ongoing series.
The higher premiums will come back at some point, once the dust has settled.
Didn't you just prove the other point? The Jackie Robinson now sells for $1000 in 70.
The only way higher premiums return is if gold tanks. There's a limit to how much anyone wants to pay for a coin and that amount isn't calculated started at intrinsic.
When I started on eBay, silver was $5 per ounce. I sold all kinds of Sterling medals at $10. When silver hit $10, I could maybe get $12. When silver hit $15 I couldn't even get $15 so I just started scrapping them.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I wasn't buying the spouses because of the low mintages. and i stopped due to the money drying up. the idea seemed sound. presidential circulation coins, first wives club nclt. obviously the series has few legs, maybe 4 with 3 missing.
@jmlanzaf said:
How many examples can you find of coins that did NOT sell out that carry a premium?
I will stick with gold commemoratives to make it easy. These are/were key coins in the series.
The Jackie Robinson gold uncirculated coin issued by the US Mint in 1997 did not sell out; in fact, it had very low demand at the time and became one of the lowest-mintage modern US commemorative gold coins, with only 5,174 uncirculated coins sold out of an authorized maximum mintage of 100,000.
The 1915 Panama-Pacific gold $50 coins did not sell out from the U.S. Mint. Although 1,500 each of the round and octagonal coins were authorized and struck, the high price of $100 per coin was far beyond what most visitors could afford at the time, resulting in weak sales.
....................................................
These key coins did not sell out, so that has no bearing on if key coin carries a premium or not.
@MsMorrisine said:
I wasn't buying the spouses because of the low mintages. and i stopped due to the money drying up. the idea seemed sound. presidential circulation coins, first wives club nclt. obviously the series has few legs, maybe 4 with 3 missing.
They sadly were termed 'hags' and it was downhill all the way........................
@jmlanzaf said:
How many examples can you find of coins that did NOT sell out that carry a premium?
I will stick with gold commemoratives to make it easy. These are/were key coins in the series.
The Jackie Robinson gold uncirculated coin issued by the US Mint in 1997 did not sell out; in fact, it had very low demand at the time and became one of the lowest-mintage modern US commemorative gold coins, with only 5,174 uncirculated coins sold out of an authorized maximum mintage of 100,000.
The 1915 Panama-Pacific gold $50 coins did not sell out from the U.S. Mint. Although 1,500 each of the round and octagonal coins were authorized and struck, the high price of $100 per coin was far beyond what most visitors could afford at the time, resulting in weak sales.
....................................................
These key coins did not sell out, so that has no bearing on if key coin carries a premium or not.
We're talking moderns, so throw the pan pac out.
The Jackie Robinson had almost no premium left. It almost proves the opposite point. It melts at $825 and sells for $1000 or $1100.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
@jmlanzaf said:
The only way higher premiums return is if gold tanks. There's a limit to how much anyone wants to pay for a coin and that amount isn't calculated started at intrinsic.
@jmlanzaf said:
The only way higher premiums return is if gold tanks. There's a limit to how much anyone wants to pay for a coin and that amount isn't calculated started at intrinsic.
That is one way, but not the only way.
Sure, magic could happen and an unpopular coin becomes popular. Hasn't happened yet, but maybe some day.
But you are still ignoring the fact that the headline number also matters. The higher gold goes, the more likely that the premium stays gone even if the coin gets popular. It's priced out of the budget of most collectors based just on the gold content.
And, again, there is no modern coin that has yet done this. Robinson spiked shortly after release, partly due to speculation on the low mintage but the price then dropped and b if gold hits $4000 there will probably be no premium left.
Edited to add: but I would never tell you not to speculate as much as you want in this market. I mostly post this so that others are aware of the history of modern commems. At spot, you can consider it a gold play. But expecting a premium increase would be a historical anomaly.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
They are priced like old classics already (17k to 50k or higher).
Jackie has almost no premium left because it is over 5k mintage and now we have 1350 mintage or less. Spouse gold unc are 50% higher mintage, so same with them as Jackie. Who would buy spouse coins when these gold are much lower now?
These are historical low gold mintages that only 6 mint state gold coins by type beat out in 250 years of us mint history. As the books get printed with the final low mintages, it will eventually be noticed.
@jmlanzaf said:
And, again, there is no modern coin that has yet done this. Robinson spiked shortly after release, partly due to speculation on the low mintage but the price then dropped and b if gold hits $4000 there will probably be no premium left.
The Jackie Robinson gold unc coin was selling for 5k ten years after its release. It was not a short spike in price.
However, it is no longer a key coin, and never will be again. So yes I expect it to be priced like all the other unc golds over 2000 mintage.
“COULD the Tubman hold a premium? Sure. But Wondercoin doesn't 10s of thousands trying to support the Spousec rarities before he gave up. And the higher gold goes, the more the premium shrinks for these things.’’.
Speaking of Wondercoin (lol), when I assisted the editor of a subscription newsletter back in roughly late 2007, he recommended the Jefferson Liberty spouse as a coin to “put away” for (2) distinct reasons. First, the numismatic play on these coins eventually becoming a prized collectible and, second, the bullion play if and when gold rose from the current levels back then. US Mint pricing was $420 at the time ($410 for MS and $430 for proofs)l. The editor called this gold play “two ways to win”.
Today, about (18) years later, the coins melt at about $1,700. That’s over a 300% return (if my math is right) even with the numismatic play going down the drain. On the other hand, an issue with the $5 Gold Commems in recent years is that they either will perform well numismatically if they get hot, but it is far less likely that spot gold will make them great buys. Hence, there are not “two ways to win” with the $5 Gold Commems, but more likely just one way. The “two ways to win” is what made the spouse coins “decent” coins since their inception.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@wondercoin said:
“COULD the Tubman hold a premium? Sure. But Wondercoin doesn't 10s of thousands trying to support the Spousec rarities before he gave up. And the higher gold goes, the more the premium shrinks for these things.’’.
Speaking of Wondercoin (lol), when I assisted the editor of a subscription newsletter back in roughly late 2007, he recommended the Jefferson Liberty spouse as a coin to “put away” for (2) distinct reasons. First, the numismatic play on these coins eventually becoming a prized collectible and, second, the bullion play if and when gold rose from the current levels back then. US Mint pricing was $420 at the time ($410 for MS and $430 for proofs)l. The editor called this gold play “two ways to win”.
Today, about (18) years later, the coins melt at about $1,700. That’s over a 300% return (if my math is right) even with the numismatic play going down the drain. On the other hand, an issue with the $5 Gold Commems in recent years is that they either will perform well numismatically if they get hot, but it is far less likely that spot gold will make them great buys. Hence, there are not “two ways to win” with the $5 Gold Commems, but more likely just one way. The “two ways to win” is what made the spouse coins “decent” coins since their inception.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Well, the gold bugs will tell you that $5000 gold is right around the corner...
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
There are no Harriet Tubman UNC gold coins on Ebay, the market has dried up.
Did you buy them all?
As far as spouse coins, the low pop first strike graded 70's have been "drying up" as well. Considering the melting of raw examples being discussed, and all the hate, some of these will be very scarce in the future. My grandkids will probably do OK. Who can know what the gold price will be in 10-20 years with debt, printing, wars, black swans, etc. If there are still premiums on top of that, great. I also am a fan of the hated gold commemoratives with low mintages, too.
There are no Harriet Tubman UNC gold coins on Ebay, the market has dried up.
Did you buy them all?
As far as spouse coins, the low pop first strike graded 70's have been "drying up" as well. Considering the melting of raw examples being discussed, and all the hate, some of these will be very scarce in the future. My grandkids will probably do OK. Who can know what the gold price will be in 10-20 years with debt, printing, wars, black swans, etc. If there are still premiums on top of that, great. I also am a fan of the hated gold commemoratives with low mintages, too.
Available gold commems and spouse gold on auction sites has been way down for a year or more in comparison to five years ago. I had bought quite a few of those with bullion stacking in mind. I just tried to accumulate as many different dates and finishes possible at close to spot prices. All in all, it makes a good insurance policy in today's chaotic times.
I sold all of my gold commems this summer, mainly because the low mintage issues have never developed any premium. I had entertained working on a set by selling my duplicates, but ultimately, I decided that they weren't that interesting.
Eventually I will sell off most of my gold spouse coins, but they are marginally more collectable than the gold commems because of the .999 purity - not because of the subject matter.
They are gold.
No one wants them.
Limited mintage.
Most are unattractive.
Low numismatic premium.
Bingo! These are exactly the reasons that I sold them - not the reasons for keeping them.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
I sold all of my gold commems this summer, mainly because the low mintage issues have never developed any premium.
The Harriet Tubman gold UNC coin has recently only sold for well over mint issue price, so it has had a premium. Since there are none on Ebay it is a name your price situation.
I don't blame you for selling any higher mintage coins, they will not do well compared to the ones that are under 1750 mintage. However, the ones that are the lowest will not stay forever unwanted.
@jmski52 said:
I sold all of my gold commems this summer, mainly because the low mintage issues have never developed any premium.
The Harriet Tubman gold UNC coin has recently only sold for well over mint issue price, so it has had a premium. Since there are none on Ebay it is a name your price situation.
I don't blame you for selling any higher mintage coins, they will not do well compared to the ones that are under 1750 mintage. However, the ones that are the lowest will not stay forever unwanted.
There are several listed in the "sold" listings, including some recent sales. The fact that there are none listed currently does not mean you can "name your own price".
If the US Mint tomorrow said they would be selling 1/4 ounce gold coins with a mintage limited to only 1300 coins, everyone would be trying to buy, especially flippers. The bearish view on these is because many have been burned on the way down, and there is little hope left. Here is a famous graph that shows the emotional cycles that investors have through a typical wave to a market cycle. This coin program is near despondency now.
@wondercoin said:
Well, the gold bugs will tell you that $5000 gold is right around the corner...
They were saying that back in 2007/08 speaking of the 2 ways to win!! lol.
Wondercoin.
Oh, I know. And some day they will be right!
I remember those one page ads in coinworld and numismatic news about that with the picture of the author with a mustache that was already 20 years old then.
Throw a coin enough times, and suppose one day it lands on its edge.
@jmski52 said:
I sold all of my gold commems this summer, mainly because the low mintage issues have never developed any premium.
The Harriet Tubman gold UNC coin has recently only sold for well over mint issue price, so it has had a premium. Since there are none on Ebay it is a name your price situation.
I don't blame you for selling any higher mintage coins, they will not do well compared to the ones that are under 1750 mintage. However, the ones that are the lowest will not stay forever unwanted.
Your last sentence reads "unwanted coins will someday be wanted". There is zero reason to expect that needs to be true.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
@HalfDime said:
If the US Mint tomorrow said they would be selling 1/4 ounce gold coins with a mintage limited to only 1300 coins, everyone would be trying to buy, especially flippers. The bearish view on these is because many have been burned on the way down, and there is little hope left. Here is a famous graph that shows the emotional cycles that investors have through a typical wave to a market cycle. This coin program is near despondency now.
That sentiment graph does not guarantee that markets rebound. Sears investors went through despondency, are you a buyer of shares??? You can buy a lot of bankrupt stocks very cheaply right before they are delisted. Are you a buyer?
Think of gold commems as Sears stock and see if things look different.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I bought multiples of many gold commems and gold Spouses all as gambits that might pay off one day. The fact that they hadn't developed huge numismatic premiums has been only a minor disappointment considering the rise in the price of bullion. With gold commems or gold Spouses, I had no real desire to go for a complete or a high grade set, especially now. But they have paid off, very well indeed.
In my speculating mode, I've bought multiples of coins that I thought would be winners - the Unc & Proof Gold Buffalo sets, the 3-coin Anniversary Gold Eagle sets, fractional Proof AGEs, the Burnished Gold Eagles...........I've kept some of them and harvested the premiums on some of them as well. Then again, some of them are part of my best sets.
I feel a little differently about the series that I collect. If I like a series, I will bite the bullet, pay the premiums, weather losses, and still enjoy the ride. I took an absolute bath when I sold my high grade Large Cent collection on Heritage recently. Will I miss having some of those coins? Yes, they are very nice coins. Did the losses on my Large Cents offset the gain on the gold coins I recently sold? Yes, my tax liability is almost a wash and I ended up with enough cash to make a real estate purchase that came my way.
Would I buy a gimmicky high premium gold Superman coin? No. Would I buy a gold Sacagawea? Yes. Would I pay an obscenely overinflated US Mint price for a high relief gold sunflower? Maybe, but only as a speculation that it might equal the return on the gold bronco coin from 2021, and only if I had that much cash laying around and didn't know what else to do with it. Hah.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
“I took an absolute bath when I sold my high grade Large Cent collection on Heritage recently. Will I miss having some of those coins? Yes, they are very nice coins.”
Massive losses on classic coins. It’s seldom spoken about around here, but refreshing when someone honestly reports on it. Massive gains and massive losses -either one is not unique to classic vs. modern coins.
Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@jmlanzaf said:
That sentiment graph does not guarantee that markets rebound. Sears investors went through despondency, are you a buyer of shares??? You can buy a lot of bankrupt stocks very cheaply right before they are delisted. Are you a buyer?
Think of gold commems as Sears stock and see if things look different.
Actually the coins have one thing going for them that Sears never did, an underlying precious metal. Gold rules above all else.
If people were nervous, then why is no one selling? Not one coin on Ebay out of 1300 minted. I would not sell at these prices of closed sales, considering how rare these coins are becoming.
Prices will eventually drift up more for these, it is a matter of how long is all. They already sell for well over issue price. Sears is no comparison.
BTW the gold buffalo fractionals followed the same lack of interest as these coins. That is why sales were so low, yet today they are priced quite high.
This is an interesting thread for sure! It's a tug of war of sorts...
Here's where I'm at on these... I bought into them because it was a fun way to collect gold. Not all designs are pretty but the premium on most over melt has always been low except for a few issues... Keep in mind that I decided to collect PCGS graded coins in MS70. Out of 43 coins in MS, the ones that tend to bring premium are: Smithsonian, Robinson, Washington and the World Cup. Most of these coins in PCGS MS70 are under 100 coins graded (thousands in MS69 for most).
I haven't bought a single new coin for the past 2 years. I did just buy a Sacagawea though... Go figure!
Here are the numbers for fun:
I own 25 $5 commems
Average paid $596
Lowest paid $492 (Madison)
Highest paid $1,027 (Washington)
Total paid for 25 was $14,908
Worth today at melt ($3,361.50) is $22,588
Even if I'm able to eek out a few hundred each over melt for my PCGS graded MS70's, I'm looking at $25,000 to $28,000 for these...
Not bad and it was fun. With the price of gold where it is, it's no longer fun collecting gold so I personally moved on but threads like this make me smile. It was a good time and the gamble on gold paid off big time...
Massive losses on classic coins. It’s seldom spoken about around here, but refreshing when someone honestly reports on it. Massive gains and massive losses -either one is not unique to classic vs. modern coins.
Yeah, man - the Large Cents were my only venture into classic coins as an adult and I got a serious wakeup call at auction. What is important to know is that I bought coins from and received advice from some of the premier dealers in Large Cents along the way and I feel that I truly did receive a worthwhile education on the subject, just not economically. I still think that Large Cents are really cool. And learning about Large Cents opened me up to Colonials as well.
When I started into Modern Bullion, I really wasn't out to prove the superiority of Modern Bullion coins over Classic coins as an investment vehicle, but that's been my experience. I remember the debates we had here in the forum in 2006-2008 over Modern vs. Classic. Moderns had many detractors at the time, even to the extent that Modern Bullion coins weren't even considered coins but were being looked down upon as "NCLT" tokens or such. Daniel Carr's products unfairly received the same negative treatment, (and still do by some). Ignorance is bliss, I suppose.
When I make a commitment to collecting ANY series - Modern OR Classic, there's no predicting how it will turn out in the long run. In 2010 I decided that the 5 oz. silver ATBs would be the next big thing (and literally, it was). I stuck with it through the whole series, and managed to garner a full set of MS-69 DMPLs along with a full set of FS-eligible unopened boxes of the blast finish coins. The biggest challenge has been storage space.
The 5 oz. silver ATB series never became all that popular, and looking at my average costs it seems obvious that I'm below breakeven because most of them won't sell for much more than melt. However, I do like most of the designs and it turns out that the silver amounts to over 500 oz. of dinner plate silver. Would I do it again, I don't know. But I am holding out for a nice spike in the price of silver before I entertain selling them.
Platinum. I like it alot, even though I would be in the hole if I decided to sell my platinum. It's a special case for me anyway because I'm still working on upgrades for my set. It will never be 100% perfect, but it's a great challenge. In the meantime I have a bunch of "seconds" that I'm not inclined to sell anytime soon - because I simply like platinum. Considering the fundamentals in the platinum market, its day is coming as the supply deficit becomes more pronounced.
And then, there is Modern Gold Bullion. Say what you will, but it really didn't matter which series you pursued, you did very well as long as you stuck with it over time. Enough said.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmlanzaf said:
That sentiment graph does not guarantee that markets rebound. Sears investors went through despondency, are you a buyer of shares??? You can buy a lot of bankrupt stocks very cheaply right before they are delisted. Are you a buyer?
Think of gold commems as Sears stock and see if things look different.
Actually the coins have one thing going for them that Sears never did, an underlying precious metal. Gold rules above all else.
If people were nervous, then why is no one selling? Not one coin on Ebay out of 1300 minted. I would not sell at these prices of closed sales, considering how rare these coins are becoming.
Prices will eventually drift up more for these, it is a matter of how long is all. They already sell for well over issue price. Sears is no comparison.
BTW the gold buffalo fractionals followed the same lack of interest as these coins. That is why sales were so low, yet today they are priced quite high.
Again, no one says your gold will sell for less than spot. You are arguing for a numismatic premium because of "rarity". The numismatic premium can hit the same level as Sears stock. But nice try...
Lack of a coin on ebay proves one thing: there isn't a coin on ebay. If anything, it argues that there isn't a significant premium or they would come out for sale. That's how markets work.
Oh, and there is one $952 from Apmex against $812 melt. You better buy it quick. I hear these are going to explode!
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
Lack of a coin on ebay proves one thing: there isn't a coin on ebay. If anything, it argues that there isn't a significant premium or they would come out for sale. That's how markets work.
Oh, and there is one $952 from Apmex against $812 melt. You better buy it quick. I hear these are going to explode!
@jmlanzaf said:
Oh, and there is one $952 from Apmex against $812 melt. You better buy it quick. I hear these are going to explode!
Yes, that's a proof version and I have never said the proofs will be big winners like the UNC. The proof sets drive up the mintages too high for the gold and silver versions
@jmski52 said:
I sold all of my gold commems this summer, mainly because the low mintage issues have never developed any premium.
The Harriet Tubman gold UNC coin has recently only sold for well over mint issue price, so it has had a premium. Since there are none on Ebay it is a name your price situation.
I don't blame you for selling any higher mintage coins, they will not do well compared to the ones that are under 1750 mintage. However, the ones that are the lowest will not stay forever unwanted.
I've chased the low mintage commemoratives for years. The problem is, mintages just keep getting lower. The cost to chase the seems to exceed the premium of whichever is lowest at a given time.
I've actively sold all many of my gold coins this year.
Lack of a coin on ebay proves one thing: there isn't a coin on ebay. If anything, it argues that there isn't a significant premium or they would come out for sale. That's how markets work.
Oh, and there is one $952 from Apmex against $812 melt. You better buy it quick. I hear these are going to explode!
FWIW. The OP said UNC, not proof.
Fair
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
@Raufus said:
I've chased the low mintage commemoratives for years. The problem is, mintages just keep getting lower. The cost to chase the seems to exceed the premium of whichever is lowest at a given time.
i'm homing in on something. what's needed in this race to the bottom is a quiet coin -- like the 21 gold liberty --in a commemorative coin design. i think that one may survive the race
I've chased the low mintage commemoratives for years. The problem is, mintages just keep getting lower. The cost to chase the seems to exceed the premium of whichever is lowest at a given time.
This phenomenon has been ongoing for at least 20 years. Lower mintages in Unc until the next unattractive issue comes along which destroys all of the previous issues' premiums.
i'm homing in on something. what's needed in this race to the bottom is a quiet coin -- like the 21 gold liberty --in commemorative coin. i think that one may survive the race
A well-designed "quiet coin" having even a somewhat a relevant subject matter won't stay quiet for long, and the mintage would dwarf recent sales levels in no time.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
The number of past issues has continued to dry up. The bottom couple only have two or three left on Ebay.
Or not...
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
When something sells for bullion price or barely above, you don't put them on eBay.
A local dealer is going to throw full good Barbers into his 90% to scrap because, at $40 silver, there's no premium left.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
Of coarse a coin dealer is only going to pay bullion, that doesn't mean that's what they sell for in the larger marketplace.
Harriet Tubman UNC gold sales completed prices on Ebay:
$1399.75
$1029.00
$1195.00
$1233.95
$1299.00
All over issue price, and well over bullion value.
I remember paying big $ for the Hackie unc & some other low mintage commems when I first got into the hobby. Big mistake. Mintages just seem ti keep getting lower. I'm sure these kings won't be so for long
Isn't Betty Ford Unc the lowest of all of tge FS Gold?
Give it time. They all start out that way and 90% of them end up a bullion.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
Is the 2020 W $50 gold eagle v75 with 1939 mintage going to sell for melt also?
These are all lower mintage.
Not a valid comparison.
You're comparing a "key date" on a wildly "popular" design (by coin standards) to designs where the vast majority of US collectors likely don't even know the coin exists. Or most will forget about it a few years down the road after the US Mint has issued several more and it's no longer a current year issue.
They almost entirely don't care. Acknowledging the last reply to my post as an exception for self-evident reasons, US collecting mostly doesn't care because no, they don't find it "interesting" at anywhere near current prices because it isn't competitive as a collectible. Anyone can buy the silver dollar for a low fraction if they like the theme that much.
The US Mint has over saturated the market with too many coins in this "series" (actually a random assortment of unrelated coins) with predominantly viewed mediocre designs and mediocre themes. The best indication of what I'm telling you is that every time this subject comes up, the reason for the claim is the mintage. I've yet to read a single exception. This should tell anyone everything they need to know of how the US collector base views this coinage (modern gold commemoratives) generically as a collectible, because no one from elsewhere is going to buy it either except for financial speculation too.
At one point the earlier key 1997 Jackie Robinson unc Gold coin was selling for nearly $5000 as a key, and it is part of this series. That is with a much higher mintage of about 5174 coins. So what has changed?
As the price of gold has risen, it has damped buyers of the series, to where we are now at record low sales.
However, the Jackie Robinson coin proved that buyers will pay up for the key coin(s), as they also ran up the prices for the 1995/96 Olympic gold coins back then as well. Also, the recent negro League baseball gold coin is very similar to the Jackie Robinson, and it sold far fewer coins due to the price of gold.
This is typical coin behavior in an ongoing series.
The higher premiums will come back at some point, once the dust has settled.
I said 90% not 100%.
How many examples can you find of coins that did NOT sell out that carry a premium? I can only think of one. Even if they sell out, 70 to 80% of the time they end up at melt. But when they fail to sell out, it's more like 95% of them.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
The "or not" are in the 10%. Grab a greysheet and look at modern commems. The data is out there.
COULD the Tubman hold a premium? Sure. But Wondercoin doesn't 10s of thousands trying to support the Spousec rarities before he gave up. And the higher gold goes, the more the premium shrinks for these things.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
Didn't you just prove the other point? The Jackie Robinson now sells for $1000 in 70.
The only way higher premiums return is if gold tanks. There's a limit to how much anyone wants to pay for a coin and that amount isn't calculated started at intrinsic.
When I started on eBay, silver was $5 per ounce. I sold all kinds of Sterling medals at $10. When silver hit $10, I could maybe get $12. When silver hit $15 I couldn't even get $15 so I just started scrapping them.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I wasn't buying the spouses because of the low mintages. and i stopped due to the money drying up. the idea seemed sound. presidential circulation coins, first wives club nclt. obviously the series has few legs, maybe 4 with 3 missing.
I will stick with gold commemoratives to make it easy. These are/were key coins in the series.
The Jackie Robinson gold uncirculated coin issued by the US Mint in 1997 did not sell out; in fact, it had very low demand at the time and became one of the lowest-mintage modern US commemorative gold coins, with only 5,174 uncirculated coins sold out of an authorized maximum mintage of 100,000.
The 1915 Panama-Pacific gold $50 coins did not sell out from the U.S. Mint. Although 1,500 each of the round and octagonal coins were authorized and struck, the high price of $100 per coin was far beyond what most visitors could afford at the time, resulting in weak sales.
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These key coins did not sell out, so that has no bearing on if key coin carries a premium or not.
They sadly were termed 'hags' and it was downhill all the way........................
Wondercoin doesn't 10s of thousands trying to support the Spousec rarities before he gave up.
The unc spouse coins have been broken by these now.
We're talking moderns, so throw the pan pac out.
The Jackie Robinson had almost no premium left. It almost proves the opposite point. It melts at $825 and sells for $1000 or $1100.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
That is one way, but not the only way.
Sure, magic could happen and an unpopular coin becomes popular. Hasn't happened yet, but maybe some day.
But you are still ignoring the fact that the headline number also matters. The higher gold goes, the more likely that the premium stays gone even if the coin gets popular. It's priced out of the budget of most collectors based just on the gold content.
And, again, there is no modern coin that has yet done this. Robinson spiked shortly after release, partly due to speculation on the low mintage but the price then dropped and b if gold hits $4000 there will probably be no premium left.
Edited to add: but I would never tell you not to speculate as much as you want in this market. I mostly post this so that others are aware of the history of modern commems. At spot, you can consider it a gold play. But expecting a premium increase would be a historical anomaly.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
The pan pacs were moderns long ago. Age has less to do with value than many claim.
Examples:
230 privy gold Flowing Hair
V75 $50 gold eagle
They are priced like old classics already (17k to 50k or higher).
Jackie has almost no premium left because it is over 5k mintage and now we have 1350 mintage or less. Spouse gold unc are 50% higher mintage, so same with them as Jackie. Who would buy spouse coins when these gold are much lower now?
These are historical low gold mintages that only 6 mint state gold coins by type beat out in 250 years of us mint history. As the books get printed with the final low mintages, it will eventually be noticed.
The Jackie Robinson gold unc coin was selling for 5k ten years after its release. It was not a short spike in price.
However, it is no longer a key coin, and never will be again. So yes I expect it to be priced like all the other unc golds over 2000 mintage.
There are no Harriet Tubman UNC gold coins on Ebay, the market has dried up.
“COULD the Tubman hold a premium? Sure. But Wondercoin doesn't 10s of thousands trying to support the Spousec rarities before he gave up. And the higher gold goes, the more the premium shrinks for these things.’’.
Speaking of Wondercoin (lol), when I assisted the editor of a subscription newsletter back in roughly late 2007, he recommended the Jefferson Liberty spouse as a coin to “put away” for (2) distinct reasons. First, the numismatic play on these coins eventually becoming a prized collectible and, second, the bullion play if and when gold rose from the current levels back then. US Mint pricing was $420 at the time ($410 for MS and $430 for proofs)l. The editor called this gold play “two ways to win”.
Today, about (18) years later, the coins melt at about $1,700. That’s over a 300% return (if my math is right) even with the numismatic play going down the drain. On the other hand, an issue with the $5 Gold Commems in recent years is that they either will perform well numismatically if they get hot, but it is far less likely that spot gold will make them great buys. Hence, there are not “two ways to win” with the $5 Gold Commems, but more likely just one way. The “two ways to win” is what made the spouse coins “decent” coins since their inception.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Well, the gold bugs will tell you that $5000 gold is right around the corner...
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
Well, the gold bugs will tell you that $5000 gold is right around the corner...
They were saying that back in 2007/08 speaking of the 2 ways to win!! lol.
Wondercoin.
.> @HalfDime said:
Did you buy them all?
As far as spouse coins, the low pop first strike graded 70's have been "drying up" as well. Considering the melting of raw examples being discussed, and all the hate, some of these will be very scarce in the future. My grandkids will probably do OK. Who can know what the gold price will be in 10-20 years with debt, printing, wars, black swans, etc. If there are still premiums on top of that, great. I also am a fan of the hated gold commemoratives with low mintages, too.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Oh, I know. And some day they will be right!
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
Available gold commems and spouse gold on auction sites has been way down for a year or more in comparison to five years ago. I had bought quite a few of those with bullion stacking in mind. I just tried to accumulate as many different dates and finishes possible at close to spot prices. All in all, it makes a good insurance policy in today's chaotic times.
I sold all of my gold commems this summer, mainly because the low mintage issues have never developed any premium. I had entertained working on a set by selling my duplicates, but ultimately, I decided that they weren't that interesting.
Eventually I will sell off most of my gold spouse coins, but they are marginally more collectable than the gold commems because of the .999 purity - not because of the subject matter.
They are gold.
No one wants them.
Limited mintage.
Most are unattractive.
Low numismatic premium.
Bingo! These are exactly the reasons that I sold them - not the reasons for keeping them.
I knew it would happen.
The Harriet Tubman gold UNC coin has recently only sold for well over mint issue price, so it has had a premium. Since there are none on Ebay it is a name your price situation.
I don't blame you for selling any higher mintage coins, they will not do well compared to the ones that are under 1750 mintage. However, the ones that are the lowest will not stay forever unwanted.
They are low mintage because there is low demand.
There are several listed in the "sold" listings, including some recent sales. The fact that there are none listed currently does not mean you can "name your own price".
If the US Mint tomorrow said they would be selling 1/4 ounce gold coins with a mintage limited to only 1300 coins, everyone would be trying to buy, especially flippers. The bearish view on these is because many have been burned on the way down, and there is little hope left. Here is a famous graph that shows the emotional cycles that investors have through a typical wave to a market cycle. This coin program is near despondency now.
I remember those one page ads in coinworld and numismatic news about that with the picture of the author with a mustache that was already 20 years old then.
Throw a coin enough times, and suppose one day it lands on its edge.
Your last sentence reads "unwanted coins will someday be wanted". There is zero reason to expect that needs to be true.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
That sentiment graph does not guarantee that markets rebound. Sears investors went through despondency, are you a buyer of shares??? You can buy a lot of bankrupt stocks very cheaply right before they are delisted. Are you a buyer?
Think of gold commems as Sears stock and see if things look different.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I bought multiples of many gold commems and gold Spouses all as gambits that might pay off one day. The fact that they hadn't developed huge numismatic premiums has been only a minor disappointment considering the rise in the price of bullion. With gold commems or gold Spouses, I had no real desire to go for a complete or a high grade set, especially now. But they have paid off, very well indeed.
In my speculating mode, I've bought multiples of coins that I thought would be winners - the Unc & Proof Gold Buffalo sets, the 3-coin Anniversary Gold Eagle sets, fractional Proof AGEs, the Burnished Gold Eagles...........I've kept some of them and harvested the premiums on some of them as well. Then again, some of them are part of my best sets.
I feel a little differently about the series that I collect. If I like a series, I will bite the bullet, pay the premiums, weather losses, and still enjoy the ride. I took an absolute bath when I sold my high grade Large Cent collection on Heritage recently. Will I miss having some of those coins? Yes, they are very nice coins. Did the losses on my Large Cents offset the gain on the gold coins I recently sold? Yes, my tax liability is almost a wash and I ended up with enough cash to make a real estate purchase that came my way.
Would I buy a gimmicky high premium gold Superman coin? No. Would I buy a gold Sacagawea? Yes. Would I pay an obscenely overinflated US Mint price for a high relief gold sunflower? Maybe, but only as a speculation that it might equal the return on the gold bronco coin from 2021, and only if I had that much cash laying around and didn't know what else to do with it. Hah.
I knew it would happen.
“I took an absolute bath when I sold my high grade Large Cent collection on Heritage recently. Will I miss having some of those coins? Yes, they are very nice coins.”
Massive losses on classic coins. It’s seldom spoken about around here, but refreshing when someone honestly reports on it. Massive gains and massive losses -either one is not unique to classic vs. modern coins.
Wondercoin.
Actually the coins have one thing going for them that Sears never did, an underlying precious metal. Gold rules above all else.
If people were nervous, then why is no one selling? Not one coin on Ebay out of 1300 minted. I would not sell at these prices of closed sales, considering how rare these coins are becoming.
Prices will eventually drift up more for these, it is a matter of how long is all. They already sell for well over issue price. Sears is no comparison.
BTW the gold buffalo fractionals followed the same lack of interest as these coins. That is why sales were so low, yet today they are priced quite high.
This is an interesting thread for sure! It's a tug of war of sorts...
Here's where I'm at on these... I bought into them because it was a fun way to collect gold. Not all designs are pretty but the premium on most over melt has always been low except for a few issues... Keep in mind that I decided to collect PCGS graded coins in MS70. Out of 43 coins in MS, the ones that tend to bring premium are: Smithsonian, Robinson, Washington and the World Cup. Most of these coins in PCGS MS70 are under 100 coins graded (thousands in MS69 for most).
I haven't bought a single new coin for the past 2 years. I did just buy a Sacagawea though... Go figure!
Here are the numbers for fun:
I own 25 $5 commems
Average paid $596
Lowest paid $492 (Madison)
Highest paid $1,027 (Washington)
Total paid for 25 was $14,908
Worth today at melt ($3,361.50) is $22,588
Even if I'm able to eek out a few hundred each over melt for my PCGS graded MS70's, I'm looking at $25,000 to $28,000 for these...
Not bad and it was fun. With the price of gold where it is, it's no longer fun collecting gold so I personally moved on but threads like this make me smile. It was a good time and the gamble on gold paid off big time...
Massive losses on classic coins. It’s seldom spoken about around here, but refreshing when someone honestly reports on it. Massive gains and massive losses -either one is not unique to classic vs. modern coins.
Yeah, man - the Large Cents were my only venture into classic coins as an adult and I got a serious wakeup call at auction. What is important to know is that I bought coins from and received advice from some of the premier dealers in Large Cents along the way and I feel that I truly did receive a worthwhile education on the subject, just not economically. I still think that Large Cents are really cool. And learning about Large Cents opened me up to Colonials as well.
When I started into Modern Bullion, I really wasn't out to prove the superiority of Modern Bullion coins over Classic coins as an investment vehicle, but that's been my experience. I remember the debates we had here in the forum in 2006-2008 over Modern vs. Classic. Moderns had many detractors at the time, even to the extent that Modern Bullion coins weren't even considered coins but were being looked down upon as "NCLT" tokens or such. Daniel Carr's products unfairly received the same negative treatment, (and still do by some). Ignorance is bliss, I suppose.
When I make a commitment to collecting ANY series - Modern OR Classic, there's no predicting how it will turn out in the long run. In 2010 I decided that the 5 oz. silver ATBs would be the next big thing (and literally, it was). I stuck with it through the whole series, and managed to garner a full set of MS-69 DMPLs along with a full set of FS-eligible unopened boxes of the blast finish coins. The biggest challenge has been storage space.
The 5 oz. silver ATB series never became all that popular, and looking at my average costs it seems obvious that I'm below breakeven because most of them won't sell for much more than melt. However, I do like most of the designs and it turns out that the silver amounts to over 500 oz. of dinner plate silver. Would I do it again, I don't know. But I am holding out for a nice spike in the price of silver before I entertain selling them.
Platinum. I like it alot, even though I would be in the hole if I decided to sell my platinum. It's a special case for me anyway because I'm still working on upgrades for my set. It will never be 100% perfect, but it's a great challenge. In the meantime I have a bunch of "seconds" that I'm not inclined to sell anytime soon - because I simply like platinum. Considering the fundamentals in the platinum market, its day is coming as the supply deficit becomes more pronounced.
And then, there is Modern Gold Bullion. Say what you will, but it really didn't matter which series you pursued, you did very well as long as you stuck with it over time. Enough said.
I knew it would happen.
Again, no one says your gold will sell for less than spot. You are arguing for a numismatic premium because of "rarity". The numismatic premium can hit the same level as Sears stock. But nice try...
Lack of a coin on ebay proves one thing: there isn't a coin on ebay. If anything, it argues that there isn't a significant premium or they would come out for sale. That's how markets work.
Oh, and there is one $952 from Apmex against $812 melt. You better buy it quick. I hear these are going to explode!
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
FWIW. The OP said UNC, not proof.
Yes, that's a proof version and I have never said the proofs will be big winners like the UNC. The proof sets drive up the mintages too high for the gold and silver versions
I've chased the low mintage commemoratives for years. The problem is, mintages just keep getting lower. The cost to chase the seems to exceed the premium of whichever is lowest at a given time.
I've actively sold all many of my gold coins this year.
Fair
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
i'm homing in on something. what's needed in this race to the bottom is a quiet coin -- like the 21 gold liberty --in a commemorative coin design. i think that one may survive the race
FWIW. The OP said UNC, not proof.
The Uncs are always the lower mintage option.
I've chased the low mintage commemoratives for years. The problem is, mintages just keep getting lower. The cost to chase the seems to exceed the premium of whichever is lowest at a given time.
This phenomenon has been ongoing for at least 20 years. Lower mintages in Unc until the next unattractive issue comes along which destroys all of the previous issues' premiums.
i'm homing in on something. what's needed in this race to the bottom is a quiet coin -- like the 21 gold liberty --in commemorative coin. i think that one may survive the race
A well-designed "quiet coin" having even a somewhat a relevant subject matter won't stay quiet for long, and the mintage would dwarf recent sales levels in no time.
I knew it would happen.