I remember paying big $ for the Hackie unc & some other low mintage commems when I first got into the hobby. Big mistake. Mintages just seem ti keep getting lower. I'm sure these kings won't be so for long
@jmlanzaf said:
Give it time. They all start out that way and 90% of them end up a bullion.
Is the 2020 W $50 gold eagle v75 with 1939 mintage going to sell for melt also?
These are all lower mintage.
Not a valid comparison.
You're comparing a "key date" on a wildly "popular" design (by coin standards) to designs where the vast majority of US collectors likely don't even know the coin exists. Or most will forget about it a few years down the road after the US Mint has issued several more and it's no longer a current year issue.
They almost entirely don't care. Acknowledging the last reply to my post as an exception for self-evident reasons, US collecting mostly doesn't care because no, they don't find it "interesting" at anywhere near current prices because it isn't competitive as a collectible. Anyone can buy the silver dollar for a low fraction if they like the theme that much.
The US Mint has over saturated the market with too many coins in this "series" (actually a random assortment of unrelated coins) with predominantly viewed mediocre designs and mediocre themes. The best indication of what I'm telling you is that every time this subject comes up, the reason for the claim is the mintage. I've yet to read a single exception. This should tell anyone everything they need to know of how the US collector base views this coinage (modern gold commemoratives) generically as a collectible, because no one from elsewhere is going to buy it either except for financial speculation too.
You're comparing a "key date" on a wildly "popular" design (by coin standards) to designs where the vast majority of US collectors likely don't even know the coin exists.
At one point the earlier key 1997 Jackie Robinson unc Gold coin was selling for nearly $5000 as a key, and it is part of this series. That is with a much higher mintage of about 5174 coins. So what has changed?
As the price of gold has risen, it has damped buyers of the series, to where we are now at record low sales.
However, the Jackie Robinson coin proved that buyers will pay up for the key coin(s), as they also ran up the prices for the 1995/96 Olympic gold coins back then as well. Also, the recent negro League baseball gold coin is very similar to the Jackie Robinson, and it sold far fewer coins due to the price of gold.
This is typical coin behavior in an ongoing series.
The higher premiums will come back at some point, once the dust has settled.
@jmlanzaf said:
Give it time. They all start out that way and 90% of them end up a bullion.
Is the 2020 W $50 gold eagle v75 with 1939 mintage going to sell for melt also?
These are all lower mintage.
I said 90% not 100%.
How many examples can you find of coins that did NOT sell out that carry a premium? I can only think of one. Even if they sell out, 70 to 80% of the time they end up at melt. But when they fail to sell out, it's more like 95% of them.
@jmlanzaf said:
When something sells for bullion price or barely above, you don't put them on eBay.
Of coarse a coin dealer is only going to pay bullion, that doesn't mean that's what they sell for in the larger marketplace.
Harriet Tubman UNC gold sales completed prices on Ebay:
$1399.75
$1029.00
$1195.00
$1233.95
$1299.00
All over issue price, and well over bullion value.
Give it time. They all start out that way and 90% of them end up a bullion.
Or not.
The "or not" are in the 10%. Grab a greysheet and look at modern commems. The data is out there.
COULD the Tubman hold a premium? Sure. But Wondercoin doesn't 10s of thousands trying to support the Spousec rarities before he gave up. And the higher gold goes, the more the premium shrinks for these things.
You're comparing a "key date" on a wildly "popular" design (by coin standards) to designs where the vast majority of US collectors likely don't even know the coin exists.
At one point the earlier key 1997 Jackie Robinson unc Gold coin was selling for nearly $5000 as a key, and it is part of this series. That is with a much higher mintage of about 5174 coins. So what has changed?
As the price of gold has risen, it has damped buyers of the series, to where we are now at record low sales.
However, the Jackie Robinson coin proved that buyers will pay up for the key coin(s), as they also ran up the prices for the 1995/96 Olympic gold coins back then as well. Also, the recent negro League baseball gold coin is very similar to the Jackie Robinson, and it sold far fewer coins due to the price of gold.
This is typical coin behavior in an ongoing series.
The higher premiums will come back at some point, once the dust has settled.
Didn't you just prove the other point? The Jackie Robinson now sells for $1000 in 70.
The only way higher premiums return is if gold tanks. There's a limit to how much anyone wants to pay for a coin and that amount isn't calculated started at intrinsic.
When I started on eBay, silver was $5 per ounce. I sold all kinds of Sterling medals at $10. When silver hit $10, I could maybe get $12. When silver hit $15 I couldn't even get $15 so I just started scrapping them.
I wasn't buying the spouses because of the low mintages. and i stopped due to the money drying up. the idea seemed sound. presidential circulation coins, first wives club nclt. obviously the series has few legs, maybe 4 with 3 missing.
@jmlanzaf said:
How many examples can you find of coins that did NOT sell out that carry a premium?
I will stick with gold commemoratives to make it easy. These are/were key coins in the series.
The Jackie Robinson gold uncirculated coin issued by the US Mint in 1997 did not sell out; in fact, it had very low demand at the time and became one of the lowest-mintage modern US commemorative gold coins, with only 5,174 uncirculated coins sold out of an authorized maximum mintage of 100,000.
The 1915 Panama-Pacific gold $50 coins did not sell out from the U.S. Mint. Although 1,500 each of the round and octagonal coins were authorized and struck, the high price of $100 per coin was far beyond what most visitors could afford at the time, resulting in weak sales.
....................................................
These key coins did not sell out, so that has no bearing on if key coin carries a premium or not.
@MsMorrisine said:
I wasn't buying the spouses because of the low mintages. and i stopped due to the money drying up. the idea seemed sound. presidential circulation coins, first wives club nclt. obviously the series has few legs, maybe 4 with 3 missing.
They sadly were termed 'hags' and it was downhill all the way........................
@jmlanzaf said:
How many examples can you find of coins that did NOT sell out that carry a premium?
I will stick with gold commemoratives to make it easy. These are/were key coins in the series.
The Jackie Robinson gold uncirculated coin issued by the US Mint in 1997 did not sell out; in fact, it had very low demand at the time and became one of the lowest-mintage modern US commemorative gold coins, with only 5,174 uncirculated coins sold out of an authorized maximum mintage of 100,000.
The 1915 Panama-Pacific gold $50 coins did not sell out from the U.S. Mint. Although 1,500 each of the round and octagonal coins were authorized and struck, the high price of $100 per coin was far beyond what most visitors could afford at the time, resulting in weak sales.
....................................................
These key coins did not sell out, so that has no bearing on if key coin carries a premium or not.
We're talking moderns, so throw the pan pac out.
The Jackie Robinson had almost no premium left. It almost proves the opposite point. It melts at $825 and sells for $1000 or $1100.
@jmlanzaf said:
The only way higher premiums return is if gold tanks. There's a limit to how much anyone wants to pay for a coin and that amount isn't calculated started at intrinsic.
@jmlanzaf said:
The only way higher premiums return is if gold tanks. There's a limit to how much anyone wants to pay for a coin and that amount isn't calculated started at intrinsic.
That is one way, but not the only way.
Sure, magic could happen and an unpopular coin becomes popular. Hasn't happened yet, but maybe some day.
But you are still ignoring the fact that the headline number also matters. The higher gold goes, the more likely that the premium stays gone even if the coin gets popular. It's priced out of the budget of most collectors based just on the gold content.
And, again, there is no modern coin that has yet done this. Robinson spiked shortly after release, partly due to speculation on the low mintage but the price then dropped and b if gold hits $4000 there will probably be no premium left.
Edited to add: but I would never tell you not to speculate as much as you want in this market. I mostly post this so that others are aware of the history of modern commems. At spot, you can consider it a gold play. But expecting a premium increase would be a historical anomaly.
They are priced like old classics already (17k to 50k or higher).
Jackie has almost no premium left because it is over 5k mintage and now we have 1350 mintage or less. Spouse gold unc are 50% higher mintage, so same with them as Jackie. Who would buy spouse coins when these gold are much lower now?
These are historical low gold mintages that only 6 mint state gold coins by type beat out in 250 years of us mint history. As the books get printed with the final low mintages, it will eventually be noticed.
@jmlanzaf said:
And, again, there is no modern coin that has yet done this. Robinson spiked shortly after release, partly due to speculation on the low mintage but the price then dropped and b if gold hits $4000 there will probably be no premium left.
The Jackie Robinson gold unc coin was selling for 5k ten years after its release. It was not a short spike in price.
However, it is no longer a key coin, and never will be again. So yes I expect it to be priced like all the other unc golds over 2000 mintage.
Comments
The number of past issues has continued to dry up. The bottom couple only have two or three left on Ebay.
Or not...
When something sells for bullion price or barely above, you don't put them on eBay.
A local dealer is going to throw full good Barbers into his 90% to scrap because, at $40 silver, there's no premium left.
Of coarse a coin dealer is only going to pay bullion, that doesn't mean that's what they sell for in the larger marketplace.
Harriet Tubman UNC gold sales completed prices on Ebay:
$1399.75
$1029.00
$1195.00
$1233.95
$1299.00
All over issue price, and well over bullion value.
I remember paying big $ for the Hackie unc & some other low mintage commems when I first got into the hobby. Big mistake. Mintages just seem ti keep getting lower. I'm sure these kings won't be so for long
Isn't Betty Ford Unc the lowest of all of tge FS Gold?
Give it time. They all start out that way and 90% of them end up a bullion.
Is the 2020 W $50 gold eagle v75 with 1939 mintage going to sell for melt also?
These are all lower mintage.
Not a valid comparison.
You're comparing a "key date" on a wildly "popular" design (by coin standards) to designs where the vast majority of US collectors likely don't even know the coin exists. Or most will forget about it a few years down the road after the US Mint has issued several more and it's no longer a current year issue.
They almost entirely don't care. Acknowledging the last reply to my post as an exception for self-evident reasons, US collecting mostly doesn't care because no, they don't find it "interesting" at anywhere near current prices because it isn't competitive as a collectible. Anyone can buy the silver dollar for a low fraction if they like the theme that much.
The US Mint has over saturated the market with too many coins in this "series" (actually a random assortment of unrelated coins) with predominantly viewed mediocre designs and mediocre themes. The best indication of what I'm telling you is that every time this subject comes up, the reason for the claim is the mintage. I've yet to read a single exception. This should tell anyone everything they need to know of how the US collector base views this coinage (modern gold commemoratives) generically as a collectible, because no one from elsewhere is going to buy it either except for financial speculation too.
At one point the earlier key 1997 Jackie Robinson unc Gold coin was selling for nearly $5000 as a key, and it is part of this series. That is with a much higher mintage of about 5174 coins. So what has changed?
As the price of gold has risen, it has damped buyers of the series, to where we are now at record low sales.
However, the Jackie Robinson coin proved that buyers will pay up for the key coin(s), as they also ran up the prices for the 1995/96 Olympic gold coins back then as well. Also, the recent negro League baseball gold coin is very similar to the Jackie Robinson, and it sold far fewer coins due to the price of gold.
This is typical coin behavior in an ongoing series.
The higher premiums will come back at some point, once the dust has settled.
Or not.
I said 90% not 100%.
How many examples can you find of coins that did NOT sell out that carry a premium? I can only think of one. Even if they sell out, 70 to 80% of the time they end up at melt. But when they fail to sell out, it's more like 95% of them.
The "or not" are in the 10%. Grab a greysheet and look at modern commems. The data is out there.
COULD the Tubman hold a premium? Sure. But Wondercoin doesn't 10s of thousands trying to support the Spousec rarities before he gave up. And the higher gold goes, the more the premium shrinks for these things.
Didn't you just prove the other point? The Jackie Robinson now sells for $1000 in 70.
The only way higher premiums return is if gold tanks. There's a limit to how much anyone wants to pay for a coin and that amount isn't calculated started at intrinsic.
When I started on eBay, silver was $5 per ounce. I sold all kinds of Sterling medals at $10. When silver hit $10, I could maybe get $12. When silver hit $15 I couldn't even get $15 so I just started scrapping them.
I wasn't buying the spouses because of the low mintages. and i stopped due to the money drying up. the idea seemed sound. presidential circulation coins, first wives club nclt. obviously the series has few legs, maybe 4 with 3 missing.
I will stick with gold commemoratives to make it easy. These are/were key coins in the series.
The Jackie Robinson gold uncirculated coin issued by the US Mint in 1997 did not sell out; in fact, it had very low demand at the time and became one of the lowest-mintage modern US commemorative gold coins, with only 5,174 uncirculated coins sold out of an authorized maximum mintage of 100,000.
The 1915 Panama-Pacific gold $50 coins did not sell out from the U.S. Mint. Although 1,500 each of the round and octagonal coins were authorized and struck, the high price of $100 per coin was far beyond what most visitors could afford at the time, resulting in weak sales.
....................................................
These key coins did not sell out, so that has no bearing on if key coin carries a premium or not.
They sadly were termed 'hags' and it was downhill all the way........................
Wondercoin doesn't 10s of thousands trying to support the Spousec rarities before he gave up.
The unc spouse coins have been broken by these now.
We're talking moderns, so throw the pan pac out.
The Jackie Robinson had almost no premium left. It almost proves the opposite point. It melts at $825 and sells for $1000 or $1100.
That is one way, but not the only way.
Sure, magic could happen and an unpopular coin becomes popular. Hasn't happened yet, but maybe some day.
But you are still ignoring the fact that the headline number also matters. The higher gold goes, the more likely that the premium stays gone even if the coin gets popular. It's priced out of the budget of most collectors based just on the gold content.
And, again, there is no modern coin that has yet done this. Robinson spiked shortly after release, partly due to speculation on the low mintage but the price then dropped and b if gold hits $4000 there will probably be no premium left.
Edited to add: but I would never tell you not to speculate as much as you want in this market. I mostly post this so that others are aware of the history of modern commems. At spot, you can consider it a gold play. But expecting a premium increase would be a historical anomaly.
The pan pacs were moderns long ago. Age has less to do with value than many claim.
Examples:
230 privy gold Flowing Hair
V75 $50 gold eagle
They are priced like old classics already (17k to 50k or higher).
Jackie has almost no premium left because it is over 5k mintage and now we have 1350 mintage or less. Spouse gold unc are 50% higher mintage, so same with them as Jackie. Who would buy spouse coins when these gold are much lower now?
These are historical low gold mintages that only 6 mint state gold coins by type beat out in 250 years of us mint history. As the books get printed with the final low mintages, it will eventually be noticed.
The Jackie Robinson gold unc coin was selling for 5k ten years after its release. It was not a short spike in price.
However, it is no longer a key coin, and never will be again. So yes I expect it to be priced like all the other unc golds over 2000 mintage.