How will $350mm in counterfeit sports cards & autographs impact PSA and, in turn, PCGS & eBay?
lermish
Posts: 3,738 ✭✭✭✭✭
Disclaimer: This is a developing story and hasn't been widely reported as of yet. A lot of the information is unverified by larger news outlets and may be speculative.
CU owns both PSA and PCGS. If the report linked above is accurate, one potential implication is that PSA may have inadvertently authenticated tens of millions of dollars’ worth — or more — in counterfeit sports cards and autographs. If that proves true, the ripple effects across the hobby could be massive.
Interestingly, unlike the counterfeit coin space where foreign operations (especially Chinese fakes) are often blamed, this appears to be a fully domestic operation — a “Made in the USA” fraud ring.
-PCGS service impact: Many collectors have experienced service delays or issues. How will those be affected if PSA needs to create an entirely new division to handle fraud fallout?
-Collectors Universe financial exposure: How would the rumored CU IPO be affected if the company is forced to issue authenticity guarantee checks totaling $100 million or more?
-eBay’s role and accountability: If the majority of fake items were sold via eBay, will this finally prompt the platform to take collector authenticity claims seriously?
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
Comments
Did they fool the authenticators or just sell counterfeit slabs?
I ask because they mention confiscated holograms.
Sigh... Ebay does take it seriously. But, as this proves, it's a nearly impossible thing to stop.
Why not ask whether PCGS will start taking it seriously? Or PSA?
They ALLEGEDLY authenticated fakes. Was ebay supposed to not allow PSA certified material? [They may not now. ]
This has always been the nightmare scenario in coins: counterfeits so good they fool the experts.
I always wondered how an autograph could be certified with accuracy and how many autograph certification companies are bogus. Athletes autographs are constantly changing over time and how a company can verify an autograph with any degree of accuracy was always a mystery to me.
I have no doubt that the problem is real but I found the article a little poorly written. Parts of it reference hundreds of millions of autographs being forged, when I am pretty sure they meant hundreds of millions of dollars worth of autographs.
The forger also claimed that no one knew what he was doing but then suggested that some companies were complicit in the fraud because they turned a blind eye.
It seems that he obtained counterfeit holograms to affix to his forgeries, rather than actually submitting them to TPAs.
Supposedly they fooled the authenticators; fake holograms and signatures in real slabs.
Perhaps poorly worded; I meant will eBay take the counterfeit coins seriously as they do not currently seem to care much. I agree that there is nothing they could (or should) really do for authenticated cards. The guarantee was PSA's, not eBay's.
If the allegations are true, PSA (and likely, by default, PCGS) will take this very seriously.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
I really do not seeing eBay caring one bit - it will be just business as usual for them. But I do wonder if coins we purchased years ago will be sought after as the flood of counterfiets contiues and our early purchases will be a safer coin to buy in these scamming times.
WS
BTW, it > @lermish said:
If the allegations are true, PSA may be finished.
I sincerely doubt CU has a hundred million dollars in liquid assets to deal out (if that’s what they certified).
If true, this may be the end of CU as a whole. Edit - evidently the PSA guarantee doesn't cover much in this situation, so it seems like nothing major will be happening.
The catch is the same as with coins; CU is the sole arbiter to determine the value and authenticity. IF they have to bite the bullet, they can determine the value of the buyback right as the entire sports card market collapses (which I think would happen in this hypothetical scenario).
Of course, a few big lawsuits change this equation a bit.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
That's the way I read it too. If he was counterfeiting PSA holograms for his forgeries, would PSA even be liable for those items? I feel like it's akin to buying a fake Morgan in a fake PCGS slab.
I believe, but may be wrong, that he was counterfeiting holographic cards. > @lermish said:
This would almost certainly be settled in court, but if it’s really this bad then I’d imagine CU would end up declaring bankruptcy. Edit - evidently the PSA guarantee doesn't cover much in this situation, so it seems like nothing major will be happening.
That is interesting, but like everyone else I think ebay won't do much if anything about it.
It's not really clear what his rambling means. The Panini holograms would be on the items not the certifications. He claims his items passed certification but it's really not clear from his rant whether he's taking about fake items with real certs, fake certs or some combination.
Ah I see, well if he was counterfeiting holographic cards/items then getting those forgeries certified by PSA that's not gonna end well.
The news story is hitting the more mainstream outlets now:
https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/sports-memorabilia-dealer-admits-to-counterfeiting-over-350-million-in-gear-after-police-raid-warehouses/
Unless there are actual facts presented which indicate that PSA/Collectors Universe was responsible in some way - and so far, I haven't seen any - I think it's imprudent to discuss any hypothetical financial ramifications, etc.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
This could completely ruin the sports memorabilia market. I'm certain that people will end up in prison and some companies will be involved with lawsuits over this. This guy went down naming names. Glad I am only into coins right now!
Im surprised that there are more comments here in the coin forum than on the PSA forum.
This is the only thread I could find on their side.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1115268/massive-autograph-fraud-uncovered#latest
@MFeld exactly what I was thinking. I put the brakes on all this speculation. It will be interesting to see how things unfold but no need to get ahead of ourselves.
Student of numismatics and collector of Morgan dollars
Successful BST transactions with: Namvet Justindan Mattniss RWW olah_in_MA
Dantheman984 Toyz4geo SurfinxHI greencopper RWW bigjpst bretsan MWallace logger7
Lots of speculation in this thread but virtually no facts. Let's wait for the facts.
This is interesting to me. I submitted an autographed that was deemed a counterfeit autograph.
Thing is, I was the one who obtained the autograph. Meaning, he signed it while I was within a foot of the man.
It's a tough lesson, and someone else might have a different opinion on authenticity.
But, an autograph not only has to be authentic, it also has to be authenticatable.
If an autograph deviates too much from accepted norms then it won't - and it shouldn't - pass third party authentication.
That is why, for a time, CGC stopped authenticating anything except witnessed autographs
How can someone be so greedy? No amount of fraud is OK, but hundreds of millions of dollars worth?
Collector, occasional seller
You could say the same about drug dealers... and they have a much more dangerous profession.
If he's to be believed, he got away with it for 20 years. After a while, it's easy to believe that they are never going to catch you.
I don't participate in or follow that market. What reason, if any, did they give for restarting the authentication of non-witnessed autographs?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
.
I think it was when they merged with JSA. It was an interesting time prior to that. If you submitted an autographed comic during the period they would not authenticate it, they would essentially detail grade it for the graffiti.
There was a lot of anger and frustration over it. For people who wanted to collect autographed books in holders, you had to buy books from CGC authorized signings which allowed the hosts to set the prices. And if you submitted your own it ended up in the dreaded "details" holder.
The guarantees are different for witnessed vs unwitnessed signatures. They don't guarantee authenticity for the unwitnessed signatures.
I'm not sure about PSA.
Edited to add:
I checked PSA. They appear to not guarantee the authenticity of autographs.
Perhaps Mark, but at the moment it appears we have a court-admissible confession that has info that appears to have been corroborated by law enforcement. It is my understanding that this confession is made freely, and appears to be of solid standing so as to be true (thus likely rendering it acceptable for a guilty plea).
For me, I believe that’s enough information to draw conclusions from the information in such a confession. Beyond that, the principle authenticator at Beckett (basically the Chief finalizer at PCGS) was saying that this would blow away the $100 million Operation Bullpen that occurred in the 1990s (further corroborating the confession mentioned above).
Also, do be completely honest I’m not sure how much more information we will end up with, if the fakes are truly that good and that numerous. We may never be able to tell the difference.
The website is not easy to navigate, particularly on a phone. But there must be some sort of guarantee of authenticity somewhere...
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
Thank you.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
How will $350mm in counterfeit sports cards & autographs impact PSA and, in turn, PCGS & eBay?
Considering this is the coin forum WHO CARES. Move it to the right forum. THKS!
only thing to say about coins is to get them all gold shield. and xrf them. modern coins will be doomed if super-counterfeits are made
>
I suppose they could classify it as a "change in the card's status" as well, rendering the entire guarantee moot.
Considering there are constant threads devoted to eBay and this situation may constitute an existential threat to PCGS, this seems like a reasonable place to discuss some of the ramifications.
But then again, you are consistently unreasonable. If only someone hadn't forced you to click on the thread..
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
maybe he intentionally clicked on it to say "it's off topic" i don't think it is unreaonable. the thread has gone to autographs now too. where's "mostly ramifications to collectors.com existence" ??
Sad indeed, but fortunately none of my coins are signed.
The thread was always about autographs as that was the main thrust of the forging. That and maybe holograms, but it was unclear which holograms he was referring.
None of the alleged fraud is directly about coins. But since PSA is in the CU umbrella, IF PSA is involved, it could impact CU and, by extension, PCGS.
It is off topic, but no more off topic than people complaining about the post office.
This reminds me of a radio talk show host caught up in sports memorabilia back in 1995 and defrauded many.
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/PAGE-ONE-The-Dark-Side-Of-Duane-Garrett-3017208.php
A few more details:
https://www.cllct.com/sports-collectibles/autographs/autograph-dealer-identified-as-man-found-dead-in-indiana-raid-of-fake-memorabilia
usps lost pacagaes in here are thought to contain coins but holograms in a warehouse are thought to go on counterfeit cards. the raided location contained no coins
any similarities drawn are distorted mental gymnastics
Let me try and get it coin related.
What if CU is liable for the hundreds of millions in authenticity claims, and can’t pay? If you have your coins at pcgs getting graded, and CU files for bankruptcy at that time because of the guarantee claims, are your coins going to be held up by bankruptcy court proceedings until things get sorted out?
Nether has anything but a distant connection to coins
The connection is PSA, potentially, which is a far bigger issue than a delayed package
It's not what was in the warehouse. It's what was sold and, according to Lemieux, what had fooled authenticators of which CU is one of the largest.
I would have thought it more likely with CGC after they were bought out by Blackstone among others. I'd think that the major investors, not sure whether they are Steven A. Cohen or others would want to address this credibility issue quickly. Certification could be considered reliable before the counterfeits came out. Coins and currency will not be much affected; PCGS shut down the currency operation in Illinois and moved it to California when ethical issues developed. Litigation can be quite expensive in situations such as this.
do autographs have a connection to coins? autograph guarantee terms and conditions? monetary level of fraud vs greed? holograms that don't go on coins?
very little here regarding the monetary impact to collectors group overall and the future of pcgs
PCGS and PSA are both part of CU
I think what you’re getting at is does a coin graded in years past by PCGS have any kind of authenticity guarantee issue, knowing that the psa division of the company is questionable? The answer probably is no.
But if the psa division literally takes down the entire company (CU), I would not want my coins anywhere near the building for any length of time in fear of them never getting returned.
I would strongly suggest to only do show grading where the coins will be returned within 24-48 hours. Some of these estimated 4-12 week turnaround times could literally turn into eternity turnaround times.
i would think getting them back would be part of pcgs' continued operation. they can continue operating in bankruptcy. i am guessing coins received will be coins returned as parts of cont'd ops
but yeah, 100 mil in other divisions' guarantees may bust the collectors group. if they are self insured. do they carry insurance to cover their guarantees just in case something like this happens?
if they are that good who's going to know to submit a guarantee?