@safari_dude said:
Was at the FUN show in Orlando today. The mint officials said there were several buyers waiting for the HHL to be dropped and were going to buy them all. Do they know something we don’t?
No. They know less than we do, given that the HHL was lifted (dropped) and they were not all bought. They are not "Mint Officials." They are salespeople working a sales counter at a convention. Period.
Yes, as @NJcoin echoed, 150k was a reasonable mintage for the 2025 Morgan Silver Dollars as well as for the 2025 Peace Dollars. However, at $91 a pop isn't it really $182 a pop since the two coins pair so nicely? I think the mintage should have been 100k per issue, especially at $91, ahhhh, I mean $182 per issues.
@NJcoin please correct me if you didn't consider the 150k mintage per issue a reasonable number.
@safari_dude said:
. Do they know something we don’t?
No. They know less than we do, given that the HHL was lifted (dropped) and they were not all bought. They are not "Mint Officials." They are salespeople working a sales counter at a convention. Period.
I should clarify that there were buyers waiting next to the US Mint display that wanted to buy them out…at the FUN show…
Yes, as @NJcoin echoed, 150k was a reasonable mintage for the 2025 Morgan Silver Dollars as well as for the 2025 Peace Dollars. However, at $91 a pop isn't it really $182 a pop since the two coins pair so nicely? I think the mintage should have been 100k per issue, especially at $91, ahhhh, I mean $182 per issues.
@NJcoin please correct me if you didn't consider the 150k mintage per issue a reasonable number.
when it i possible to buy 10 and resell them to the unknowing, that speaks to one level of demand. to sell the same number using only 1 per person limitations added with resellers are still buying at 2x issue plus we have people on here wanting more than 1 says they have more demand.
the 10x hourglass opening has grains of sand dropping something like 25 per hour.viewing this we know demand is over
we have evidence there is more demand than what has come through the hole one per person, which limit demand of each person.
@MsMorrisine said:
selling one at a time versus 10at a time?
when it i possible to buy 10 and resell them to the unknowing, that speaks to one level of demand. to sell the same number using only 1 per person limitations added with resellers are still buying at 2x issue plus we have people on here wanting more than 1 says they have more demand.
the 10x hourglass opening has grains of sand dropping something like 25 per hour.viewing this we know demand is over
we have evidence there is more demand than what has come through the hole one per person, which limit demand of each person.
Disagree. What we have is a distribution problem. With all the flipping on the Privy, there's no evidence that there is even demand for the coins that sold.
i gave the evidence. it's in the army thread. pinehurst is buying due to demand, we have forumites who want more than one, when you can buy 10 and only sells 100k with coins left to be sold, that shows lower demand than buying 1 per person only and selling 100k with (soon) none left to be bought.
@MsMorrisine said:
i gave the evidence. it's in the army thread. pinehurst is buying due to demand, we have forumites who want more than one, when you can buy 10 and only sells 100k with coins left to be sold, that shows lower demand than buying 1 per person only and selling 100k with (soon) none left to be bought.
Except it doesn't. The same bigs who buy the Privy buy the dollars. The larger lots make it easier for Pinehurst et al to get what they want so they don't have to bid them up. In the end, it doesn't matter how many Pinehurst buys. It matters how many retail buyers there are. We really can't know that for either one until they are distributed to end users.
because so many are willing to buy more just to resell to pinehurst et al - on your path now
pinehurst has to bid up the army. can't get the fill. why? because there is demand that shows the people who are buyers are end users buying direct and pinehurst can't reach their fill for graded/raw
pinehurst has their graded/raw on these, right? where's the buying direct demand to sell past 100k? it's not there
the buying direct demand is keeping pinehurst from having their fill, and there are still people waiting in the wings wishing they could buy direct to get more than one for the other people in their circle
the hhl of 1 is masking the true demand
not wanting to pay so much over issue is also masking demand on "outside selling sites"
supply and demand on the outside sites we've settled on twice issue
twice issue and the twenty twenty five morgan is selling at issue, thus tell me about supply and demand
because so many are willing to buy more just to resell to pinehurst et al - on your path now
pinehurst has to bid up the army. can't get the fill. why? because there is demand that shows the people who are buyers are end users buying direct and pinehurst can't reach their fill for graded/raw
pinehurst has their graded/raw on these, right? where's the buying direct demand to sell past 100k? it's not there
the buying direct demand is keeping pinehurst from having their fill, and there are still people waiting in the wings wishing they could buy direct to get more than one for the other people in their circle
the hhl of 1 is masking the true demand
not wanting to pay so much over issue is also masking demand on "outside selling sites"
supply and demand on the outside sites we've settled on twice issue
twice issue and the twenty twenty five morgan is selling at issue, thus tell me about supply and demand
Yes, it's masking the demand which is why we can't know what it is. The distribution issue dominates over the organic demand, whatever it is.
That's not to say that it might not be higher. Except sales have been slow all week for the privy which does not suggest a lot if unmet demand. But the distribution problem makes it hard to know if it is even 100,000.
Imagine a coin with an organic demand of 50,000 coins and a mintage of 100,000. What does the price do if 60,000 coins are in the hands of Pinehurst What happens to the price when Pinehust sells 20,090 distributing a total of 60k to organic demand of 50k?
Until the coins get distributed, it's hard to know. Could go either way.
Yes, as @NJcoin echoed, 150k was a reasonable mintage for the 2025 Morgan Silver Dollars as well as for the 2025 Peace Dollars. However, at $91 a pop isn't it really $182 a pop since the two coins pair so nicely? I think the mintage should have been 100k per issue, especially at $91, ahhhh, I mean $182 per issues.
@NJcoin please correct me if you didn't consider the 150k mintage per issue a reasonable number.
Yes, it was, and is, a reasonable number based on last year's sales. It will also be the lowest mintage ever for these. If you'll recall, there was an absolute frenzy in 2021 with 5 Morgans at 175K each and one Peace at 200K. Prices are higher now, but so is silver.
They overplayed their hand last year when they raised the price, and sales suffered as a result. Minting this year to last year's sales, without raising the price, was very reasonable.
They might have simply killed demand with what they did last year. Maybe it just ran its course, because sales are now comparable to numismatic ASEs.
@safari_dude said:
. Do they know something we don’t?
No. They know less than we do, given that the HHL was lifted (dropped) and they were not all bought. They are not "Mint Officials." They are salespeople working a sales counter at a convention. Period.
I should clarify that there were buyers waiting next to the US Mint display that wanted to buy them out…at the FUN show…
Okay. But no need. Because they can pick up the phone and buy tens of thousands. Nothing special about the ones at the FUN show. Other than maybe a non-FDOI FUN Show slab.
Sold about as many as the Army privy which some people think is "hot"
Yes. Compare something with no secondary market bid with something bid at over 2x issue price, based on the number sold. Not on unsatisfied demand. Because you don't know better. 🤣
Sold about as many as the Army privy which some people think is "hot"
Yes. Compare something with no secondary market bid with something bid at over 2x issue price, based on the number sold. Not on unsatisfied demand. Because you don't know better. 🤣
There's no evidence for unsatisfied demand for either given that they are both still available. That's exactly the point.
What we know for sure is that there are no Privy buyers who want a single coin or they would have it. Everything else is speculative.
I'm not sure why "we can't know" isn't the fairest answer ..
@MsMorrisine said:
i gave the evidence. it's in the army thread. pinehurst is buying due to demand, we have forumites who want more than one, when you can buy 10 and only sells 100k with coins left to be sold, that shows lower demand than buying 1 per person only and selling 100k with (soon) none left to be bought.
Except it doesn't. The same bigs who buy the Privy buy the dollars. The larger lots make it easier for Pinehurst et al to get what they want so they don't have to bid them up. In the end, it doesn't matter how many Pinehurst buys. It matters how many retail buyers there are. We really can't know that for either one until they are distributed to end users.
You're totally missing the other side of the equation. End user demand. All you are doing here is stating the obvious.
The BIg Boys can get as many Morgan and Peace Dollars as they want. They just don't want as many, because they can't slab them and sell them for 3-4x+ issue price.
Just look at where the Army ASEs in slabs are priced. Dealers can't get enough, and they have much larger margins to play with. So, 100K Army ASEs are hot while 150K Morgan and Peace Dollars are not. And they are each bid accordingly. It's not nearly as complicated as you want to make it out to be.
Sold about as many as the Army privy which some people think is "hot"
Yes. Compare something with no secondary market bid with something bid at over 2x issue price, based on the number sold. Not on unsatisfied demand. Because you don't know better. 🤣
There's no evidence for unsatisfied demand for either given that they are both still available. That's exactly the point.
What we know for sure is that there are no Privy buyers who want a single coin or they would have it. Everything else is speculative.
I'm not sure why "we can't know" isn't the fairest answer ..
But there is. It's the strong prices dealers are getting for slabbed Army presales, which is what is feeding their demand for raw coins. Which cannot be met, because you can't go on the website and buy 99 of them at $105 each. So they are dribbling out, one at a time, to people being turned on to them by people like us. Some of whom keep them for themselves, and others to flip to us for small profits before we flip to Pinehurst.
Sales on the web are slow because we are not allowed to buy them. Not because dealers wouldn't take down as many as they could get at $105 each, given that there has been a bid at over $200 for a solid month now. Or that, with the bid being what it is, that the little guys just on this forum wouldn't take down 10K+ in a few minutes if given the opportunity. Let alone all the buying club members who have been shut out.
Remember, the ABPP guys are prohibited from lining up an army of straw buyers to hit the web. If they do that and get caught, they lose access to ABPP. That is also significantly dampening demand on the website. The Mint intentionally did not lift the HHL. Because they are hot. Not because they are not.
No such thing occurred with the Morgan and Peace Dollars. Do you REALLY not see the difference? Or understand what is driving it?
They'll be sold out by Monday. The bid isn't going to drop. It will likely go up. Until they are done marketing these slabs and move on to the next one.
Sold about as many as the Army privy which some people think is "hot"
Yes. Compare something with no secondary market bid with something bid at over 2x issue price, based on the number sold. Not on unsatisfied demand. Because you don't know better. 🤣
There's no evidence for unsatisfied demand for either given that they are both still available. That's exactly the point.
What we know for sure is that there are no Privy buyers who want a single coin or they would have it. Everything else is speculative.
I'm not sure why "we can't know" isn't the fairest answer ..
Sure there isn't. After a month, with the bid stable at 2x+ issue price.
You "can't know" because you constantly deny the obvious in favor of the remotely possible. It would be a pleasure to serve on a jury with you.
Even with a tape and a confession. Because video can be altered and confessions could be coerced. Anything is always possible.
Including a distribution problem masking a lack of demand for a coin with a very strong after market bid, and the Mint taking the extraordinary step of not lifting the HHL after a month on a modestly priced release with a 100K mintage.
Sold about as many as the Army privy which some people think is "hot"
Yes. Compare something with no secondary market bid with something bid at over 2x issue price, based on the number sold. Not on unsatisfied demand. Because you don't know better. 🤣
There's no evidence for unsatisfied demand for either given that they are both still available. That's exactly the point.
What we know for sure is that there are no Privy buyers who want a single coin or they would have it. Everything else is speculative.
I'm not sure why "we can't know" isn't the fairest answer ..
Sure there isn't. After a month, with the bid stable at 2x+ issue price.
You "can't know" because you constantly deny the obvious in favor of the remotely possible. It would be a pleasure to serve on a jury with you.
Even with a tape and a confession. Because video can be altered and confessions could be coerced. Anything is always possible.
Including a distribution problem masking a lack of demand for a coin with a very strong after market bid, and the Mint taking the extraordinary step of not lifting the HHL after a month on a modestly priced release with a 100K mintage.
It's not obvious because of the entire history of flips. 90% of them dropped below issue price in less than a year. Why? As soon as the distribution problem is settled, the organic demand is not always sufficient to support the price.
A classic example of this is the 2017 EU sets. I bought hundreds of them and flipped some for $50 (2x issue price) but then the price quickly dropped, the sets were down to issue price and the once sold out mintage ended up NEVER selling out.
The 2020 ASE's were a great flip. I posted a bid at $500 (and people questioned it). I bought some as high as $600. I flipped them all for $1000. You can buy that coin now for $350 raw. And that's a low mintage silver eagle.
All silver eagles under 100,000 are very flippable and tend to hold their value. All silver eagles above 100,000 are sometimes flippable (100k to 150k) but don't always hold their value.
If you look at the entire history of ASE's, there appears to be organic demand of around 100k. So, this one may hang around $200 for awhile or it may revert to $100 in 6 months to a year. But we can't know. That is not "denying the obvious", it's embracing the obvious and knowing the history.
I've flipped hundreds of coins over the years. Very few of them are currently above issue price and almost none of them are above the peak flipping price.
morgan - - - - - army
100k - - - - - - - - 100k
(sold out) - - - - actually sold out (almost) ==== (i'm making them sold out on both to force the examination of ebay sales)
no pce buy - - - pce buy offer
ebay 1x issue - - ebay 2x issue
no pcgs interest - pcgs has military and small resellers buy interest
lastly, we know what the morgan primary direct and flippers interest is right now: zero because they are selling 25/hr while no HHL (let's give them hhl=10... not restrictive)
hhl = 1 restrictive yes. but we know there is more than 100k demand because the secondary market has prices up 2x and still room for more
it can be asked "who knows?" but we do know how hot the 2025 morgan is. not.
it an be asked "who knows?' why, the true demand may be 100,200 for the army ? is that where we're heading because i'm not going there. the army may not be as hot as a $4 stella at issue price, but with 100k sold, 2x issue on the secondary and not all filled, and not all of the army faithful getting as much as they want. i feel pretty comfortable saying the word "hot"
Sold about as many as the Army privy which some people think is "hot"
Yes. Compare something with no secondary market bid with something bid at over 2x issue price, based on the number sold. Not on unsatisfied demand. Because you don't know better. 🤣
There's no evidence for unsatisfied demand for either given that they are both still available. That's exactly the point.
What we know for sure is that there are no Privy buyers who want a single coin or they would have it. Everything else is speculative.
I'm not sure why "we can't know" isn't the fairest answer ..
Sure there isn't. After a month, with the bid stable at 2x+ issue price.
You "can't know" because you constantly deny the obvious in favor of the remotely possible. It would be a pleasure to serve on a jury with you.
Even with a tape and a confession. Because video can be altered and confessions could be coerced. Anything is always possible.
Including a distribution problem masking a lack of demand for a coin with a very strong after market bid, and the Mint taking the extraordinary step of not lifting the HHL after a month on a modestly priced release with a 100K mintage.
It's not obvious because of the entire history of flips. 90% of them dropped below issue price in less than a year. Why? As soon as the distribution problem is settled, the organic demand is not always sufficient to support the price.
A classic example of this is the 2017 EU sets. I bought hundreds of them and flipped some for $50 (2x issue price) but then the price quickly dropped, the sets were down to issue price and the once sold out mintage ended up NEVER selling out.
The 2020 ASE's were a great flip. I posted a bid at $500 (and people questioned it). I bought some as high as $600. I flipped them all for $1000. You can buy that coin now for $350 raw. And that's a low mintage silver eagle.
All silver eagles under 100,000 are very flippable and tend to hold their value. All silver eagles above 100,000 are sometimes flippable (100k to 150k) but don't always hold their value.
If you look at the entire history of ASE's, there appears to be organic demand of around 100k. So, this one may hang around $200 for awhile or it may revert to $100 in 6 months to a year. But we can't know. That is not "denying the obvious", it's embracing the obvious and knowing the history.
I've flipped hundreds of coins over the years. Very few of them are currently above issue price and almost none of them are above the peak flipping price.
Again, because you like to argue for the sake of arguing, you are in denial with respect to what is happening now, and talking about what might or might not happen in a year or two. As I have been saying, and as is empirically undeniable, by virtue of the bids, is that these are hot now. Because dealers cannot get their hands on them in the quantity they need.
Of course the frenzy will fade when dealers sell what they can get their hands on and move on to the next thing. And whether these have legs a year or two from now is an open question. One that is irrelevant to what is happening now, and one only you are interested in debating.
Sold about as many as the Army privy which some people think is "hot"
Yes. Compare something with no secondary market bid with something bid at over 2x issue price, based on the number sold. Not on unsatisfied demand. Because you don't know better. 🤣
There's no evidence for unsatisfied demand for either given that they are both still available. That's exactly the point.
What we know for sure is that there are no Privy buyers who want a single coin or they would have it. Everything else is speculative.
I'm not sure why "we can't know" isn't the fairest answer ..
Sure there isn't. After a month, with the bid stable at 2x+ issue price.
You "can't know" because you constantly deny the obvious in favor of the remotely possible. It would be a pleasure to serve on a jury with you.
Even with a tape and a confession. Because video can be altered and confessions could be coerced. Anything is always possible.
Including a distribution problem masking a lack of demand for a coin with a very strong after market bid, and the Mint taking the extraordinary step of not lifting the HHL after a month on a modestly priced release with a 100K mintage.
It's not obvious because of the entire history of flips. 90% of them dropped below issue price in less than a year. Why? As soon as the distribution problem is settled, the organic demand is not always sufficient to support the price.
A classic example of this is the 2017 EU sets. I bought hundreds of them and flipped some for $50 (2x issue price) but then the price quickly dropped, the sets were down to issue price and the once sold out mintage ended up NEVER selling out.
The 2020 ASE's were a great flip. I posted a bid at $500 (and people questioned it). I bought some as high as $600. I flipped them all for $1000. You can buy that coin now for $350 raw. And that's a low mintage silver eagle.
All silver eagles under 100,000 are very flippable and tend to hold their value. All silver eagles above 100,000 are sometimes flippable (100k to 150k) but don't always hold their value.
If you look at the entire history of ASE's, there appears to be organic demand of around 100k. So, this one may hang around $200 for awhile or it may revert to $100 in 6 months to a year. But we can't know. That is not "denying the obvious", it's embracing the obvious and knowing the history.
I've flipped hundreds of coins over the years. Very few of them are currently above issue price and almost none of them are above the peak flipping price.
Again, because you like to argue for the sake of arguing, you are in denial with respect to what is happening now, and talking about what might or might not happen in a year or two. As I have been saying, and as is empirically undeniable, by virtue of the bids, is that these are hot now. Because dealers cannot get their hands on them in the quantity they need.
Of course the frenzy will fade when dealers sell what they can get their hands on and move on to the next thing. And whether these have legs a year or two from now is an open question. One that is irrelevant to what is happening now, and one only you are interested in debating.
Actually, it is you who likes to argue. I posted my opinion on the future value. YOU chose to contest it. YOU could (could you?) have ignored it but didn't.
Sold about as many as the Army privy which some people think is "hot"
Yes. Compare something with no secondary market bid with something bid at over 2x issue price, based on the number sold. Not on unsatisfied demand. Because you don't know better. 🤣
There's no evidence for unsatisfied demand for either given that they are both still available. That's exactly the point.
What we know for sure is that there are no Privy buyers who want a single coin or they would have it. Everything else is speculative.
I'm not sure why "we can't know" isn't the fairest answer ..
Sure there isn't. After a month, with the bid stable at 2x+ issue price.
You "can't know" because you constantly deny the obvious in favor of the remotely possible. It would be a pleasure to serve on a jury with you.
Even with a tape and a confession. Because video can be altered and confessions could be coerced. Anything is always possible.
Including a distribution problem masking a lack of demand for a coin with a very strong after market bid, and the Mint taking the extraordinary step of not lifting the HHL after a month on a modestly priced release with a 100K mintage.
It's not obvious because of the entire history of flips. 90% of them dropped below issue price in less than a year. Why? As soon as the distribution problem is settled, the organic demand is not always sufficient to support the price.
A classic example of this is the 2017 EU sets. I bought hundreds of them and flipped some for $50 (2x issue price) but then the price quickly dropped, the sets were down to issue price and the once sold out mintage ended up NEVER selling out.
The 2020 ASE's were a great flip. I posted a bid at $500 (and people questioned it). I bought some as high as $600. I flipped them all for $1000. You can buy that coin now for $350 raw. And that's a low mintage silver eagle.
All silver eagles under 100,000 are very flippable and tend to hold their value. All silver eagles above 100,000 are sometimes flippable (100k to 150k) but don't always hold their value.
If you look at the entire history of ASE's, there appears to be organic demand of around 100k. So, this one may hang around $200 for awhile or it may revert to $100 in 6 months to a year. But we can't know. That is not "denying the obvious", it's embracing the obvious and knowing the history.
I've flipped hundreds of coins over the years. Very few of them are currently above issue price and almost none of them are above the peak flipping price.
Again, because you like to argue for the sake of arguing, you are in denial with respect to what is happening now, and talking about what might or might not happen in a year or two. As I have been saying, and as is empirically undeniable, by virtue of the bids, is that these are hot now. Because dealers cannot get their hands on them in the quantity they need.
Of course the frenzy will fade when dealers sell what they can get their hands on and move on to the next thing. And whether these have legs a year or two from now is an open question. One that is irrelevant to what is happening now, and one only you are interested in debating.
Actually, it is you who likes to argue. I posted my opinion on the future value. YOU chose to contest it. YOU could (could you?) have ignored it but didn't.
Right. Me, @MsMorrisine, whoever. You just say things once and then let them go. Because you don't always have to be right. Even when you clearly are not. Because there are no clear answers to anything, and everything is a mystery with infinite possibilities. We just need you to open our eyes to them. 🤣
Yes, as @NJcoin echoed, 150k was a reasonable mintage for the 2025 Morgan Silver Dollars as well as for the 2025 Peace Dollars. However, at $91 a pop isn't it really $182 a pop since the two coins pair so nicely? I think the mintage should have been 100k per issue, especially at $91, ahhhh, I mean $182 per issues.
@NJcoin please correct me if you didn't consider the 150k mintage per issue a reasonable number.
Don't worry! He will!🙄
After all this time, believe it or not, I am still flattered by the attention I get from you. Thank you!! 🙄
It is true many flips have fallen in price. But there is one thing the Army silver Eagle has going for it besides the 100k mintage, and that is the HHL of 1.
When coins are sold with no HHL or a HHl of 10, it is made for flippers. But a HHL of only 1 distributes the coins to many more households, and most aren't interested in flipping. So it is harder to get the coins in quantity.
This tends to support a higher price for the coins, than otherwise would happen. If many could buy ten and flip them, the prices would be less than they currently are.
It always amazes me how emotional some people get over these things.
Full discolosure: I like them, and I bought one of each. I was one of those folks who dealt with the Mint's horrible ordering system, and managed to get several of each, in 2021, and I want to keep up the set. In the scheme of my collecting, whether I spend $91 or $75 on two coins that I want is meaningless to me.
Part of my bemusement about the emotion is the people who feel that they know how to run the Mint's business better than the Mint does. While I'm the first to acknowledge that the Mint makes blunders (either underpricing or underproducing these things in their first year is an example), pretending that the fact that they don't sell out in 30 minutes means they're a dud shows a remarkable lack of understanding for how they make their money; it's not as if the coins that don't sell get tossed in the trash, and it's not as if the marginal cost of 10,000 more is very high.
@124Spider said:
... and it's not as if the marginal cost of 10,000 more is very high
there is a cost to keeping 5,000 unsold coins in inventory for an extended time. they take space that could be used for new issues
it's not as if the coins that don't sell get tossed in the trash
it costs them to either destroy the ogp or reuse it. (at least on older issues you could see they put a new barcode over last years issue) i can guess this isn't that big of a cost
and the coins? they aren't blanks and can't be re-melted and reused because the mint doesn't just melt their old coins. they cancel them which costs money and they have to get them back into blank form (melt). for clads they have to cancel the coins and send them out to be recycled. i don't know what they do with the silver, gold and bronze; however, the effort isn't without cost.
you can see some indications of cost control when they short strike an issue
@124Spider said:
... and it's not as if the marginal cost of 10,000 more is very high
there is a cost to keeping 5,000 unsold coins in inventory for an extended time. they take space that could be used for new issues
it's not as if the coins that don't sell get tossed in the trash
it costs them to either destroy the ogp or reuse it. (at least on older issues you could see they put a new barcode over last years issue) i can guess this isn't that big of a cost
and the coins? they aren't blanks and can't be re-melted and reused because the mint doesn't just melt their old coins. they cancel them which costs money and they have to get them back into blank form (melt). for clads they have to cancel the coins and send them out to be recycled. i don't know what they do with the silver, gold and bronze; however, the effort isn't without cost.
you can see some indications of cost control when they short strike an issue
Sure; but $91 times more than 100,000 of each leaves lots and lots of profit even if a few tens of thousands aren't ultimately sold. I'm confident that, for issues like these, they know their business better than we do.
@124Spider said:
Sure; but $91 times more than 100,000 of each leaves lots and lots of profit even if a few tens of thousands aren't ultimately sold. I'm confident that, for issues like these, they know their business better than we do.
for the whole array of mint products i guess it'd be hard for anyone. just don't forget they were also the mint that decided only 1,945 V75 privy AGE needed to be minted. an obvious mistake.
@124Spider said:
Sure; but $91 times more than 100,000 of each leaves lots and lots of profit even if a few tens of thousands aren't ultimately sold. I'm confident that, for issues like these, they know their business better than we do.
for the whole array of mint products i guess it'd be hard for anyone. just don't forget they were also the mint that decided only 1,945 V75 privy AGE needed to be minted. an obvious mistake.
They've done some head-scratchers, for sure. But the only ones of which I am aware involve making too few, not making too many. I was complaining publicly in 2021 about what I saw as a clear blunder in the 2021 Morgans and Peace offerings, which were either underpriced or underproduced. I just doubt very much, with the markup from silver melt value, that they're anything but happy (with both last year's offerings and this year's offerings).
And, to recap--my first post was primarily to express surprise at the emotion that some people put into knocking this series. It's kind of like the odd Vault Box offerings (which I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole); if you like them, buy them, if you don't like them, don't buy them. But why the vituperation by some?
@HalfDime said:
It is true many flips have fallen in price. But there is one thing the Army silver Eagle has going for it besides the 100k mintage, and that is the HHL of 1.
When coins are sold with no HHL or a HHl of 10, it is made for flippers. But a HHL of only 1 distributes the coins to many more households, and most aren't interested in flipping. So it is harder to get the coins in quantity.
This tends to support a higher price for the coins, than otherwise would happen. If many could buy ten and flip them, the prices would be less than they currently are.
This isn't historically accurate. Numerous prior issues sold out with HHL of 1, often in less than an hour. Demand for Mint products has dropped steeply in the last 5 years.
@erscolo said:
Out of curiosity I looked around at the 2023 Peace Dollar uncirculated in OGP for sale and many were to be had for plus or minus $70 a piece. Wait a couple of years and buy them for less. A mintage of 150,000 will never be rare or scarce to be sure.
A big dealer had a few hundred of the 2023s available for $60/each in original packaging, and it was kinda tempting for a split second, but then I thought about what to do with them, and clearly these have become dead issues.
I can’t believe there were dealers in line at the mint booth trying to buy them out. These will be losers again this year.
Gotta get to a mintage around 75,000 before they become interesting again.
My singular Peace Dollar arrived yesterday, a mark free box and package and a fine looking coin. These will likely never be a money maker since 2023 issues are going as low as $50 a piece, but the Peace design has grown on me since I picked up a 1935 P&S for that year's mint set.
I didn't get any, I think I will just wait a year or two, but I do like how they are using modern minting technology to produce the old designs so you can see the design in its full original detail.
Comments
Probably starts with the next issue
It is....2026
No. They know less than we do, given that the HHL was lifted (dropped) and they were not all bought. They are not "Mint Officials." They are salespeople working a sales counter at a convention. Period.
wrong thread on me. i thought it was the army thread
Almost 12 hours later..
47,604 Morgans remain
52,206 Peace remain
Not exactly a Mint hot seller!!
One more thing.
Yes, as @NJcoin echoed, 150k was a reasonable mintage for the 2025 Morgan Silver Dollars as well as for the 2025 Peace Dollars. However, at $91 a pop isn't it really $182 a pop since the two coins pair so nicely? I think the mintage should have been 100k per issue, especially at $91, ahhhh, I mean $182 per issues.
@NJcoin please correct me if you didn't consider the 150k mintage per issue a reasonable number.
I should clarify that there were buyers waiting next to the US Mint display that wanted to buy them out…at the FUN show…
Sold about as many as the Army privy which some people think is "hot"
Don't worry! He will!🙄
selling one at a time versus 10at a time?
when it i possible to buy 10 and resell them to the unknowing, that speaks to one level of demand. to sell the same number using only 1 per person limitations added with resellers are still buying at 2x issue plus we have people on here wanting more than 1 says they have more demand.
the 10x hourglass opening has grains of sand dropping something like 25 per hour.viewing this we know demand is over
we have evidence there is more demand than what has come through the hole one per person, which limit demand of each person.
Disagree. What we have is a distribution problem. With all the flipping on the Privy, there's no evidence that there is even demand for the coins that sold.
i gave the evidence. it's in the army thread. pinehurst is buying due to demand, we have forumites who want more than one, when you can buy 10 and only sells 100k with coins left to be sold, that shows lower demand than buying 1 per person only and selling 100k with (soon) none left to be bought.
Except it doesn't. The same bigs who buy the Privy buy the dollars. The larger lots make it easier for Pinehurst et al to get what they want so they don't have to bid them up. In the end, it doesn't matter how many Pinehurst buys. It matters how many retail buyers there are. We really can't know that for either one until they are distributed to end users.
100k of each
pinehurst has their fill of these
because so many are willing to buy more just to resell to pinehurst et al - on your path now
pinehurst has to bid up the army. can't get the fill. why? because there is demand that shows the people who are buyers are end users buying direct and pinehurst can't reach their fill for graded/raw
pinehurst has their graded/raw on these, right? where's the buying direct demand to sell past 100k? it's not there
the buying direct demand is keeping pinehurst from having their fill, and there are still people waiting in the wings wishing they could buy direct to get more than one for the other people in their circle
the hhl of 1 is masking the true demand
not wanting to pay so much over issue is also masking demand on "outside selling sites"
supply and demand on the outside sites we've settled on twice issue
twice issue and the twenty twenty five morgan is selling at issue, thus tell me about supply and demand
Yes, it's masking the demand which is why we can't know what it is. The distribution issue dominates over the organic demand, whatever it is.
That's not to say that it might not be higher. Except sales have been slow all week for the privy which does not suggest a lot if unmet demand. But the distribution problem makes it hard to know if it is even 100,000.
Imagine a coin with an organic demand of 50,000 coins and a mintage of 100,000. What does the price do if 60,000 coins are in the hands of Pinehurst What happens to the price when Pinehust sells 20,090 distributing a total of 60k to organic demand of 50k?
Until the coins get distributed, it's hard to know. Could go either way.
Yes, it was, and is, a reasonable number based on last year's sales. It will also be the lowest mintage ever for these. If you'll recall, there was an absolute frenzy in 2021 with 5 Morgans at 175K each and one Peace at 200K. Prices are higher now, but so is silver.
They overplayed their hand last year when they raised the price, and sales suffered as a result. Minting this year to last year's sales, without raising the price, was very reasonable.
They might have simply killed demand with what they did last year. Maybe it just ran its course, because sales are now comparable to numismatic ASEs.
Okay. But no need. Because they can pick up the phone and buy tens of thousands. Nothing special about the ones at the FUN show. Other than maybe a non-FDOI FUN Show slab.
Yes. Compare something with no secondary market bid with something bid at over 2x issue price, based on the number sold. Not on unsatisfied demand. Because you don't know better. 🤣
There's no evidence for unsatisfied demand for either given that they are both still available. That's exactly the point.
What we know for sure is that there are no Privy buyers who want a single coin or they would have it. Everything else is speculative.
I'm not sure why "we can't know" isn't the fairest answer ..
You're totally missing the other side of the equation. End user demand. All you are doing here is stating the obvious.
The BIg Boys can get as many Morgan and Peace Dollars as they want. They just don't want as many, because they can't slab them and sell them for 3-4x+ issue price.
Just look at where the Army ASEs in slabs are priced. Dealers can't get enough, and they have much larger margins to play with. So, 100K Army ASEs are hot while 150K Morgan and Peace Dollars are not. And they are each bid accordingly. It's not nearly as complicated as you want to make it out to be.
But there is. It's the strong prices dealers are getting for slabbed Army presales, which is what is feeding their demand for raw coins. Which cannot be met, because you can't go on the website and buy 99 of them at $105 each. So they are dribbling out, one at a time, to people being turned on to them by people like us. Some of whom keep them for themselves, and others to flip to us for small profits before we flip to Pinehurst.
Sales on the web are slow because we are not allowed to buy them. Not because dealers wouldn't take down as many as they could get at $105 each, given that there has been a bid at over $200 for a solid month now. Or that, with the bid being what it is, that the little guys just on this forum wouldn't take down 10K+ in a few minutes if given the opportunity. Let alone all the buying club members who have been shut out.
Remember, the ABPP guys are prohibited from lining up an army of straw buyers to hit the web. If they do that and get caught, they lose access to ABPP. That is also significantly dampening demand on the website. The Mint intentionally did not lift the HHL. Because they are hot. Not because they are not.
No such thing occurred with the Morgan and Peace Dollars. Do you REALLY not see the difference? Or understand what is driving it?
They'll be sold out by Monday. The bid isn't going to drop. It will likely go up. Until they are done marketing these slabs and move on to the next one.
Sure there isn't. After a month, with the bid stable at 2x+ issue price.
You "can't know" because you constantly deny the obvious in favor of the remotely possible. It would be a pleasure to serve on a jury with you.
Even with a tape and a confession. Because video can be altered and confessions could be coerced. Anything is always possible.
Including a distribution problem masking a lack of demand for a coin with a very strong after market bid, and the Mint taking the extraordinary step of not lifting the HHL after a month on a modestly priced release with a 100K mintage.
It's not obvious because of the entire history of flips. 90% of them dropped below issue price in less than a year. Why? As soon as the distribution problem is settled, the organic demand is not always sufficient to support the price.
A classic example of this is the 2017 EU sets. I bought hundreds of them and flipped some for $50 (2x issue price) but then the price quickly dropped, the sets were down to issue price and the once sold out mintage ended up NEVER selling out.
The 2020 ASE's were a great flip. I posted a bid at $500 (and people questioned it). I bought some as high as $600. I flipped them all for $1000. You can buy that coin now for $350 raw. And that's a low mintage silver eagle.
All silver eagles under 100,000 are very flippable and tend to hold their value. All silver eagles above 100,000 are sometimes flippable (100k to 150k) but don't always hold their value.
If you look at the entire history of ASE's, there appears to be organic demand of around 100k. So, this one may hang around $200 for awhile or it may revert to $100 in 6 months to a year. But we can't know. That is not "denying the obvious", it's embracing the obvious and knowing the history.
I've flipped hundreds of coins over the years. Very few of them are currently above issue price and almost none of them are above the peak flipping price.
morgan - - - - - army
100k - - - - - - - - 100k
(sold out) - - - - actually sold out (almost) ==== (i'm making them sold out on both to force the examination of ebay sales)
no pce buy - - - pce buy offer
ebay 1x issue - - ebay 2x issue
no pcgs interest - pcgs has military and small resellers buy interest
lastly, we know what the morgan primary direct and flippers interest is right now: zero because they are selling 25/hr while no HHL (let's give them hhl=10... not restrictive)
hhl = 1 restrictive yes. but we know there is more than 100k demand because the secondary market has prices up 2x and still room for more
it can be asked "who knows?" but we do know how hot the 2025 morgan is. not.
it an be asked "who knows?' why, the true demand may be 100,200 for the army ? is that where we're heading because i'm not going there. the army may not be as hot as a $4 stella at issue price, but with 100k sold, 2x issue on the secondary and not all filled, and not all of the army faithful getting as much as they want. i feel pretty comfortable saying the word "hot"
Again, because you like to argue for the sake of arguing, you are in denial with respect to what is happening now, and talking about what might or might not happen in a year or two. As I have been saying, and as is empirically undeniable, by virtue of the bids, is that these are hot now. Because dealers cannot get their hands on them in the quantity they need.
Of course the frenzy will fade when dealers sell what they can get their hands on and move on to the next thing. And whether these have legs a year or two from now is an open question. One that is irrelevant to what is happening now, and one only you are interested in debating.
Actually, it is you who likes to argue. I posted my opinion on the future value. YOU chose to contest it. YOU could (could you?) have ignored it but didn't.
Right. Me, @MsMorrisine, whoever. You just say things once and then let them go. Because you don't always have to be right. Even when you clearly are not. Because there are no clear answers to anything, and everything is a mystery with infinite possibilities. We just need you to open our eyes to them. 🤣
After all this time, believe it or not, I am still flattered by the attention I get from you. Thank you!! 🙄
It is true many flips have fallen in price. But there is one thing the Army silver Eagle has going for it besides the 100k mintage, and that is the HHL of 1.
When coins are sold with no HHL or a HHl of 10, it is made for flippers. But a HHL of only 1 distributes the coins to many more households, and most aren't interested in flipping. So it is harder to get the coins in quantity.
This tends to support a higher price for the coins, than otherwise would happen. If many could buy ten and flip them, the prices would be less than they currently are.
It always amazes me how emotional some people get over these things.
Full discolosure: I like them, and I bought one of each. I was one of those folks who dealt with the Mint's horrible ordering system, and managed to get several of each, in 2021, and I want to keep up the set. In the scheme of my collecting, whether I spend $91 or $75 on two coins that I want is meaningless to me.
Part of my bemusement about the emotion is the people who feel that they know how to run the Mint's business better than the Mint does. While I'm the first to acknowledge that the Mint makes blunders (either underpricing or underproducing these things in their first year is an example), pretending that the fact that they don't sell out in 30 minutes means they're a dud shows a remarkable lack of understanding for how they make their money; it's not as if the coins that don't sell get tossed in the trash, and it's not as if the marginal cost of 10,000 more is very high.
there is a cost to keeping 5,000 unsold coins in inventory for an extended time. they take space that could be used for new issues
it costs them to either destroy the ogp or reuse it. (at least on older issues you could see they put a new barcode over last years issue) i can guess this isn't that big of a cost
and the coins? they aren't blanks and can't be re-melted and reused because the mint doesn't just melt their old coins. they cancel them which costs money and they have to get them back into blank form (melt). for clads they have to cancel the coins and send them out to be recycled. i don't know what they do with the silver, gold and bronze; however, the effort isn't without cost.
you can see some indications of cost control when they short strike an issue
Sure; but $91 times more than 100,000 of each leaves lots and lots of profit even if a few tens of thousands aren't ultimately sold. I'm confident that, for issues like these, they know their business better than we do.
for the whole array of mint products i guess it'd be hard for anyone. just don't forget they were also the mint that decided only 1,945 V75 privy AGE needed to be minted. an obvious mistake.
They've done some head-scratchers, for sure. But the only ones of which I am aware involve making too few, not making too many. I was complaining publicly in 2021 about what I saw as a clear blunder in the 2021 Morgans and Peace offerings, which were either underpriced or underproduced. I just doubt very much, with the markup from silver melt value, that they're anything but happy (with both last year's offerings and this year's offerings).
And, to recap--my first post was primarily to express surprise at the emotion that some people put into knocking this series. It's kind of like the odd Vault Box offerings (which I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole); if you like them, buy them, if you don't like them, don't buy them. But why the vituperation by some?
it's a chat forum. add that it's the internet and you get almost unfiltered opinions. the intense level does get bothersome at times
This isn't historically accurate. Numerous prior issues sold out with HHL of 1, often in less than an hour. Demand for Mint products has dropped steeply in the last 5 years.
Back from VA Beach (called neighbor to retrieve and hold after viewing security footage from Friday afternoon). Peace to be delivered tomorrow.
A big dealer had a few hundred of the 2023s available for $60/each in original packaging, and it was kinda tempting for a split second, but then I thought about what to do with them, and clearly these have become dead issues.
I can’t believe there were dealers in line at the mint booth trying to buy them out. These will be losers again this year.
Gotta get to a mintage around 75,000 before they become interesting again.
Mine came in today. 2 of each on subscription.
Throw a coin enough times, and suppose one day it lands on its edge.
My singular Peace Dollar arrived yesterday, a mark free box and package and a fine looking coin. These will likely never be a money maker since 2023 issues are going as low as $50 a piece, but the Peace design has grown on me since I picked up a 1935 P&S for that year's mint set.
I didn't get any, I think I will just wait a year or two, but I do like how they are using modern minting technology to produce the old designs so you can see the design in its full original detail.
My single subscription Morgan arrived today. It is flawless.
peace sitting right at 50,000
morgan 45,071