1937 D 3 leg buffalo and the illogical price to population ratio
Aspie_Rocco
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One of the most well known and iconic nickel varieties is the 37 D 3 leg buffalo. It has been wildly popular for my whole life and that kind of mystifies me when it comes to modern pricing.
With well beyond 10,000 graded examples, this coin is way over priced in my opinion. After acquiring an XF 45 that later got a green CAC, I looked into the population count and was shocked to see so many just in pcgs holders, not counting any other services.when I realized how many were actually out there I honestly lost interest in this variety and sold mine. I feel the 37 D 3 leg is about valued about 5x what it should be in any given grade.
I can only surmise the outrageous prices tie directly to the well known popularity of this abraded die.
What are your thoughts on a “rare” die variety with a population of many thousands of examples?
Comments
Let me speak from the perspective of another so-called "overhyped" coin: the 1895 Morgan dollar in proof. According to PCGS, there are around 629 certified examples of the 1895 proof dollar. Compare that to the 1896 proof, which has only 361 certified examples—yet the 1895 is worth many multiples more, sometimes even 10 times as much in the same grade. Heck, people pay up for damaged or circulated examples, which weren’t supposed to exist in the first place!
Why? Because popularity drive value in this hobby just as much as population numbers do, sometimes more. The 1895 Morgan is legendary. It’s considered the key to completing the series, and its aura has made it a must-have. The 1937-D 3-Leg Buffalo falls into a similar category. Yes, it has a large certified pop, but that doesn’t diminish the intense demand it generates.
At the end of the day, a coin’s value isn’t determined solely by how many exist, it’s about how many people want one.
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The 1937-D Three Legged Buffalo Nickel isn’t a truly rare die variety, but understandably, it’s an extremely popular one. The pricing is all about supply and demand.
There are quite a few other coins whose prices appear to be much higher than justified if you look at their populations but ignore demand. Among them are 1909-S VDB cents, 1907 High Relief $20’s , 1916-D Mercury Dimes, 1921 Peace Dollars and so on.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@Aspie_Rocco I completely agree with you on the 37-D 3 leg. It would be a non-event for instance if the tail was missing instead of the leg.
The 1922 no D cent probably belongs in the same argument.
The 37-D three legged Buff is in demand but it is also a coin that like certain others can be promoted based on the surviving population.
If you are seeking rarity, there are better options.
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A forum friend and I were messaging each other over the weekend about the scarcity and pricing of major redbook variety middle date large cents…. And what the potential value would be if these were in a popular series like Morgan dollars.
So yes, popularity and demand drives pricing.
That is only true in low grades though for the 1922. According to our host pop report there are over 1300 1909-SVDB 63BN and 64BN in total and thousands more in 63 or better RB and RD, while there are less than 50 1922 no D SR in BN over MS60, maybe 30 in RB and 1 63RD and 1 64RD, so the pricing on the higher mint state make a lot of sense. The vast majority of 1922 no D SR are down in the lower circulated grades.
This is the coin that started me collecting when I found one in circulation 60 years ago that I sent to ANACS for authentication and grading a few years ago and it came back F15 so I sold it and got a nicer one finally after all this time. It remains unfortunately one of my two remaining circulated Lincolns at XF40, along with the 1917 DDO in XF40. Most are 65 PCGS or CAC other than my 1955DDO at CAC MS62BN I would like to eventually get both in MS62-63BN but they don't come around often and I let a 22 slip away early this year, first I had seen in a long time and I called to buy it the day after it appeared and it was already sold.
But yes, most of the key date expensive coins that are fairly common are just very popular.
As I was going through my collection of coins to sell, I had a few key dates that I decided to dump.
Among them were the 09SVDB, 16 D, and 37D3 legged. I chose to sell those off as they could be easily replaced at any time.
I never looked up statistics on any of them, but from experience, you can grab them at any time.
"Rarity" and "Interesting" make for more expensive coins VS "Rarity" and "Boring"
peacockcoins
Nice summary
I think you miss the point made by the OP that the 1937-D 3 Leg Buffalo is not rare by most standards.
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It is why I placed "Rarity" in quotations.
I agree with the OP even at the expense of disagreeing with many who do believe it to be rare.
On a similar note, the 1918/17 also shares the "rarity" tag even though it really isn't.
peacockcoins
Thank you.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
People seem to think you can calculate the "right price". It's even worse when they think they can do it based on ONE parameter.
The price of a 3-legged Buffalo is the correct price. It is a frequently traded coin in a large, mature market.
The 1937-D 3-Leg is one of approximately a dozen 20th century key dates in the series circulating in the 1960's sharing this perception.
It's been in the Red Book for decades and it's considered "necessary" for a "complete" set. It also has an extended history of high prices, meaning buyers have a higher confidence of recovering most, all, or more of their cost at resale.
Yes, subjectively, it's relatively overpriced for its collectible attributes.
I think some of the demand is due to good branding; 3 Leg Buffalo is a fantastic name for a variety, similar to the Scarface Morgan.
On a related note, I prefer the name 4 Finger for the 1876-P Trade Dollar Transitional Obverse (sometimes called type 1.5/2).
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
The 1856 Flying eagle is the same, there are a thousand graded proofs 700 of those in PF 60 or greater, a POP 51 PF 65 is a $52K coin. 300 PCGS circ strikes graded and a VF is $14K.
Interesting subject! The bottom line for this particular variety and other coins when the discussion arises seems to be “supply and demand” determines the price. Of course. With the population known, to a degree, the next question is: what is driving the demand to be so high?
I think that once a variety goes “mainstream” - the 3-legged buff did a LONG time ago - it becomes a necessary coin to complete the set. That boosts the popularity, the demand, and thus, the price.
There isn’t a salary cap in coin collecting. The stars are worth way more than the scrubs. I don’t think you can base the value of the leaders on the price of the lessers. I think it’s far more likely that the 16Ds and 3 Legged Buffs are helping out the prices of the really really common coins.
Some of these coins got marketed well, or caught people’s attention a long time ago and now they are stars. When people find out I collect coins they ask if I have an ‘09 VDB or tell me how they saw one as a kid. They don’t tell me about a ‘36 nickel their mom kept in an ash tray or ask if I have 3lbs of cull constitutional silver.
I totally get the “not really that rare” argument, but try getting them cheaper. I don’t think they’re overpriced, though. Just worth paying up to get the stars.
You could say this about many popular high-value types. The 1909-S VDB cent is very common. So is the 1916-D dime. The 1955 DDO is pretty common too. There are no rare Morgans. There probably needs to be a certain level of obtainability in order for such types to become popular collector items.
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There are so many examples of popularity or legend bumping the price
There are about (15) 1804 $, whereas for 1801, 1802 and 1803 the proof population is in the single digit 3-4 for each year, yet the 1804 sells for many multiples of the prices of the 1801-1803 novodels.
Look at EHR St. Gaudens- there are 18 or so of them so they really aren’t that rare- but they sell for multi-million dollar price tags
So, these coins are "very common"? Thanks for sharing that with us. I learned something new today. And yes, I'm being sarcastic.
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"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Actually….. the rarest Philadelphia proof Morgan is the 1878 7TF / Reverse of 79
It is quite rare- est mintage 12, surviving population known is 4
Norweb, Clapp, Eliasberg, Hansen- none of them had/have one
With tens of thousands of examples, they are not rare. Whether you want to call them common or very common is up to you. There are THOUSANDS of more scarce coins globally, some of which barely sell for the melt value of the coin. High demand doesn't make the coin "rare".
In my book, any coin that i can buy a dozen of any day of the week is "common". There are dozens of PCGS 16D dimes available on ebay alone right now.
It's a die variety. So is this Buffalo nickel but it's part of traditional sets. That's why US collecting implicitly compares it to date scarcity, even though it's also "apples to oranges".
The scarcity or rarity of any die variety is the norm. There must be at least 100K die varieties for all US Mint coinage dating back to 1793. Several million minimum for all coinage ever struck. Typical scarcity probably in the vicinity of an R-4 on the Judd scale (76-200).
Given the lifetime of dies, I would think the number of a given variety would tend to be far higher than R4 for coins after 1850.
I wasn’t referring to proofs. None of the circulating date/mintmark combinations are rare.
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Same here. This is the distinction between a "market scarcity" and more subjective definitions or criteria.
Practically all coins US collecting considers "scarce" or "rare" can be bought at any time, and of those which can't, still on "short notice". It's still usually days, weeks, or a few months at most for anyone who is willing to pay the market price, or somewhat more.
This would also be true of most non-US coins, if the price was high enough where the owner would have the same motivation to sell it and coin markets outside the US were equally developed. With many non-US coins of really low values or low catalog values, it's my inference the owner doesn't even remember having it.
I've looked for non-US proof sets with mintages of 300 to 500 intermittently. To my recollection, I've never failed to see at least one coin from the set (not the full sets concurrently) every time. Example is the 1839 Uk where each coin is usually worth 4+ figures.
Yes for US coinage. The proportion of non-US coinage dated prior to 1850 is much higher.
PCGS estimates a surviving population of 50,000 1909-S VDB cents. PCGS alone has straight-graded 10,000 1916-D dimes. They estimate 15,000 surviving 1955 DDOs. The key date of Morgans, the 1893-S, has almost 8,000 straight-graded examples at PCGS. I don’t know by what matrix any of these could be considered rare. There are foreign coins with a few hundred examples surviving that are considered fairly available. The 1880 Gold Dollar had a mintage of 1,600 pieces and is only considered scarce.
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https://www.instagram.com/rexrarities/?hl=en
Antics with semantics. Hyper rarities aside, demand is everything. If you have something with 10,000, 20,000, 50,000 survivors but a million collectors potentially want or need one, it's "rare" in terms of market demand. If you have something with 2,000 mintage but only 100-200 people care enough to want one, then it's scarce but not truly a "rarity" from a market demand standpoint. This is especially true with obscure varieties and micro errors that have a tiny market populated by collectors who'd rather find and "make" them than buy them. There are also plenty of low mintage world coins that would likely bring multiples of their current sale prices if they were US coin equivalents, but the demand isn't equal.
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I've been collecting US coins since the early 1960s and I have never found a 1909-S VDB cent or a 1916-D dime in my change or while coin roll hunting. If you don't want to call them "rare", at least call them "scarce" since calling them "very common" is a gross misrepresentation.
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"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Why would you expect to find a coin of this value from circulation? In the context of contemporary economics (which is more than just the CPI adjusted price), the coins were potentially worth more then vs. now. I don't have my old Red Books, but I recall the 1965 edition lists the 16-D @$1000 and 09-S VDB @$335, both in UNC. I don't remember other grades.
That's the most likely explanation for your experience and everyone else who looked for it.
There is no mystery, it as all about hype and demand. Supply is never more than half of the equation.
Finding one in circulation is hardly the standard. Have you gotten a 1921 Morgan from circulation?
Yes! Back in the early 1960s I got numerous silver dollars of various dates from the bank for face value and from cashiers when I saw them in their cash drawers.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I wouldn't because I knew they were not "very common" as others here claimed.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
When it comes to calling a coin, "rare":
Every lie we tell incurs the debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid.
peacockcoins
And my grandfather pulled a 16D and an SVDB from circulation in the 40s. I guess they got rare later...
To the OP’s point:
There are clearly more than, hypothetically, 10,000 people who want or already have a 3-Legged Buffalo.
(I have a nice AU58, and I don’t even collect the Bison series.)
But should there come a time when fewer than 10,000 or so people want one, prices will start to go down.
As others have said, supply and demand create market prices.
Words like rare, common, hype, and lie don’t get us anywhere.
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Everyone is forgetting about the hundreds, if not thousands that are lost yearly to circulation and loss.
And, many Buffalo nickels were melted during WWII for the nickel. I'd think 2/3rds of all 3-leggeds were among those melted and lost in jars and burried forever.
And when did they melt the thousands that are in PCGS and NGC plastic? I'm pretty sure none of us are ignoring those lost before we were born. So NO ONE is forgetting the attrition.
There are 10,000 in PCGS plastic, 10,000 in NGC plastic and thousands still raw. So, even with double counting, there are 10,000 to 20,000 available.
It's the KEY DATE mystic. There are apparently more KEY DATE collectors who believe the 3 Leg is a KEY DATE than there are Buffalo nickel date and mint mark collectors.
Examples from the rarefied CAC MS66 populations and values:
1937- D 3 Legs 8 : 0 CAC $60,000
1917- D 8 : 0 CAC $6,500
1925- D 7 : 0 CAC $10,500
1926- D 8 : 0 CAC $11,000
1928- S 8 : 0 CAC $15,000
They're not "overpriced," by any rational definition of the term. They readily sell at those prices, so they're properly priced.
The price of non-necessary widgets is determined by the balance between supply and demand. There can be lots of supply, but if demand is even greater, the price shoots up."
Lots of famous coins aren't even vaguely rare, but so many people want them that the price is bid up. This is just an example of that.
My 1963 Whitman "Handbook of United States Coins" lists the 1909-S VDB as $90 in VF condition (highest grade for which a price is given, as are all the ones after this). Three-Legs was $32.50 in XF. 16-D Merc was $75 in F. 1916 SLQ was $185 in F. 1932-D Washington Quarter was $10 in VF condition. 1921 WLHD was $9 in F. 1893-S Morgan dollar was $50 in XF. On the other side, the 1903-O Morgan was $650 in Unc, condition.
There was a big price run-up to 1965. After my post, I found the link below, except that my recollection is that the 1965 RB differs from it. There used to be a similar site with a more comprehensive price history (back to 1940I recall) but it's not available anymore and can't confirm its accuracy either.
https://www.landofcoins.com/coin-price-history-guide.php?
Since when does logic have anything to do with how humans act or react?
Fair point
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I'll be the first to shake my head at much of human behavior. But paying the market rate for something you want is not illogical--your choice is to pay the going rate, or not get it. The price of expensive, non-rare coins is set by the market, not by monopolists.
But I will also acknowledge that one could easily make the case that collecting coins by buying them from stores (often paying tens of thousands of times its intrinsic worth, or more) instead of getting them out of circulation (as I did when I was an impecunious kid) isn't "logical"; but we all do it, don't we?
Popularity trumps scarcity. If scarcity was that important the 46 small date HE would be a very expensive coin with 50 survivors in all grades.
The story and the emotion that fuels the story for this coin makes it sell for what it's worth. Logic really doesn't enter into it. A U.S. MInt "worker" over polished the reverse die to remove chatter or make the coin better... and made a leg disappear unknowingly.... and then in 1937... they came out into the public's hands. Its sounds made up.. But, if people can get a coin for 5 cents and sell it for 10 bucks, it's a small miracle, a windfall and a gift from the coin gods..... Legends like this do not die very often. They are part of American culture. Before the "information age" when comic books advertised " find this nickel and it's worth 100 bucks! Or Max Mel.. It's like coca cola... You want one... You remember it, you remeber you can't buy it you have no money... and when you have the money when your older... you buy it no matter the cost.. It's in your hand now! You won...... !!!!
That is the reason for the price...
So there are bigger factors in the buying process then Mintage, etc....