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Excitement brewing..
olb31
Posts: 3,706 ✭✭✭✭✭
I really believe that card prices are getting ready to explode later in the year. Much like the stock market right now, time to buy!!!!
Work hard and you will succeed!!
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Farewell Ryno.
Not so sure. Q1 GDP is trending -1.5%, two quarters of that would be recession.
Tariffs are going to impact cross border sales. Hockey will take a beating, no one in Canada will be buying cards online with a 25% tariff premium plus tax plus currency conversion. The TPG’s aren’t even taking cards from Canada today.
Very much looking like some version of stagflation for 2025. I’m not bullish on financial or hard asset prices in the short term.
I was thinking the high end card market was going to see increases in value due to the recent stock market's struggles. But I suppose it depends on where you look there. NASDAQ went from 20,000 to low to mid 17K. I went from close to fully invested to more than 50% cash and more in my individual account vs. retirement where I can do things like move the cash into my bank and buy really nice cards that are fun to look at and admire.
But as I did this, I was looking at Heritage Auctions where a PSA 10 1980 Nolan Ryan was going for 14K and went up to 19K I think I read here. His cards and other stuff I like, which I only want to mention after the auction, felt higher than I expected. I was thinking that recent stock market instability may have had some thinking rotation and targeting some cards with the freed up cash.
But see in the last 10 days things are stabilizing and possibly ticking up. Looked nicer in my world a couple hours ago.
I love your prediction though and want to believe that. Please lets get back to the market exploding and cards wait to explode until I acquire some on the cheap and then everything I own goes up too. I can also be ready to break out some beverages if this happens.
It’s a mistake to use high end / rarities as a proxy for the overall card market. All the data is widely available, and I’ve posted numerous examples in the past. The mostly widely traded cards are way off Covid peaks and the stuff I follow remains soft. That may change of course.
And as money evaporates from equities, that will put downward pressure on card prices. Add in recession and the job loss that comes with it and I’m having a hard time seeing where the spark would come from for card (and RE, and other collectibles) would come from.
I can appreciate that point and agree that the card market can not be seen as all-encompassing. There is a market for Topps Chrome and Heritage and Prizm and Select cards for the past 7 years where PSA 10s are POP 500 to 2000. I can say I got my head taken off there feeling Vlad was a great player and sure the POP is high but people are buying it. 4 years later that stuff is worth 10 to 25% of what it was then depending on the player. A recently mentioned Ja Morant example 90% cheaper than it was at the pandemic peak. I mistakenly purchased one of them at his peak.
But 33 Goudey Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, HOF T206 graded 5 or higher, high grade RCs of Mays or earlier cards of him Mantle Aaron Clemente in PSA 9, that I think is its own world. Because most of the population cant play there. Most of the people commenting on Reddit boards and buying and selling stocks with Robinhood probably dont say I'm getting out of these equities now and I will buy that 51B PSA 8 Mays. Maybe just wow, I took a hit let me preserve my money. I think there are two markets. One where the average Joe can buy a card and if inflation or other factors hurt his expendable income, job loss or spouse job loss, that market suffers and he wont buy the $50 to $500 card and maybe those cards become $30 to $300 cards. Then the second market is the one where the very wealthy play and I think that space always remains strong because wealth does not suffer too much. There can be massive layoffs at a company, impacting the lower end card market, but that decision comes from someone at the top who remains and maybe gets a bonus when decreased costs are recognized. That guy can go out and bid on the Sporting News Babe Ruth.
c
love the beer pic. any vintage (superstar) centered sells immediately, unless super overpriced. the headlines say one thing the facts say the total opposite. lots of vintage high end looks cheap to me, compared to the newest rookie auto blue orange refractor prizm number to 5.
Then what happens next? Probably 30.00 grading on 100.00 or less.
Can’t wait
Pokémon going bonkers. Neck beards rioting inTarget like its 2020.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
Yeah recession and even worse stagflation seems to be taking hold...this will likely impact the $1000 dollar cards and below...high end cards seem, in the past, to be able to weather the economic downturns...stagflation (inflation up and GDP contracts at same time) may even raise prices to some extent...we shall wait and see
Wealth stays wealthy. The buyers of high end items will continue to push value upwards regardless of the economy. Folks who need to pay for food, gas and electricity won't give a darn craap about hobbies.
Farewell Ryno.
To be clear "high end / rarities" are NOT the life blood of the hobby.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
elmago -- all the things you just mentioned is why prices are going to go way up with cards. food gas mortgage rates all coming down.
Stay positive and I hope you are correct.
Farewell Ryno.
The Fed held on rates yesterday, and the latest inflation print was up. Just the facts.
Oh yeah!!! Things are looking a lot better. The energy (gas, oil) is a big part of it. Gas prices here for Premium are $2.90. Lowest in 5 years. Energy costs drive just about everything.
I can agree that oil drives a lot of prices. But, since about January 20th markets have pretty much sucked. Markets like stability not pure chaos.
c
Markets have been on fire for awhile, it goes up and down. I heard the other day, that about every 18 months there are slight corrections. But a down market could be good for other valuable items. Like cards, gold BITCOIN?
Maybe the economy is booming because of high egg prices. Just as plausible.
And they are down $2.50 a dozen. WINK WINK..
Vintage is ready to take off. Nolan Ryan is starting it off, the rest will value.
c
100% agree. Supply and demand. There's not enough vintage centered PSA 8's and 9's to meet demand. The last two major card shows I attended in Southern California had very few cards before 1980 in PSA 8 and 9 for sale. The handful of dealers who did have some for sale sold ample cards as long as their prices were reasonable.
I just viewed some HOF rookies and star cards on EBAY. Can't find centered ones, in 6, 7, 8. 1 975 nolan ryan psa 8 centered is now over $600. But even then that sounds low. I think there is lot of room for growth.
Always be buying and always be holding (to average costs and appreciation).
Otherwise, you're just guessing and gambling (some folks like that though).
Crude and gas prices at the pump are down because economic activity is decreasing. I know everyone wants cheap gas but it comes at a cost.
And we have a good gauge of how the economy is doing, GDP, which is trending negative for Q1. If that trend continues the US will be in a recession by mid summer.
eBay has become a dump site for 2nd tier cards which don't seem to meet the satisfaction level some people require. The grades can be perceived in various ways, but if you know history, you can understand why the desire to own high grade cards is dependent on patience and excess research. The best cards are migrating back to the big auction companies, with a couple exceptions that have already been discussed here. To me, though, overall eBay has become a has-been for scouting good cards on a consistent basis.
Farewell Ryno.
GDP is a good measure, lowering costs are too. as long as energy keeps falling, I think that benefits every sector. Including cards.
With what happened at the latest big auction, the Paul Skenes selling for $1.1 million, PSA 10 Jordan RC selling for $19k than previous high and a Juan Soto Bowman Chrome Red Refractor AU selling for over $200k, you aren't wrong. Also it was just released that Dick's Sporting Goods bought the Paul Skenes MLB Debut to display at their Pittsburgh store.
Lots of great signs that things are really picking up. I feel very good about this post.
Positive rhetoric more stimulating than a Cuppa Joe.
Farewell Ryno.
Would be interested in the great signs that you are seeing. Not disagreeing but I am a big fan of informational nuggets. I have been on the same page with you in terms of believing in the upside in cards this calendar year. My feeling was the pulling back of cash in the stock market could influence it.
But wondering if there could be a little hiccup if folks see stocks as a nice opportunity to make money again. And the market has been incredible for some specific stocks since early April but sentiment is an interesting thing. I'm hearing that while stocks are going up people still feel somewhat negative about the market and perhaps fearful of what comes next.
I feel like there have been nice stock market opportunities but at the same time not close to ready to go all in again. Cash that would have been used on stocks previously I just used to pay Memory Lane and at this point very comfortable with the move.
Nice post about the market. Without getting into the weeds, lots of positive energy on all fronts around the US. But we aren't quite back to what we were or could be.
I like cards for collecting and investing. I looked at 130point and a1975 OPC PSA 9 pete rose sold for $350 about 5 years ago. This is just one example, of course, but I would have to think that would be at least $1,000 now, if not more. 1975 OPC Noan ryan psa 8 sold for $1,000 a couple of weeks ago. Heck 1975 topps psa 8 ryan's are up over 25% in the last 3 or 4 months.
I collect mainly vintage. Rose, Ryan are two of my favs.
I have added recently a few iconic cards to my collection ('33 Goudey Ruth, '33 Goudey Gehrig, '48 Leaf Jackie RC, and '51 Bowman Mantle RC) and am looking to add a '51 Bowman Mays RC)...thinking these have bottomed out. It resulted in a few tough decisions of letting go high end cards from my personal collection...namely a '70 Ryan PSA-9 (coming up in a July Heritage Auction), '58 Banks PSA-9 (coming up in an REA in August) and a '54 Johnston Cookies Aaron RC PSA-8 (in an REA August). I will be keeping my 9 Mantle cards, 7 Mays cards, 7 Koufax cards, 5 Aaron cards, and 5 Clemente cards as well as RCs of HOFs from the 50s and 60s (Reggie, Ryan, Bench, Seaver, Carew, Morgan, Perez, Rose, Brock, McCovey, Gibson, Maris, F. Robinson, B. Robinson, Drysdale, Clemente, Koufax, Aaron, and Banks).
Speaking of prices rebounding...I bid on and was looking to upgrade my Clemente RC from a PSA-6.5 to a PSA-7.5. I tapped out at $30,000...with the card approaching early decade prices...and selling for $36,600 in a Goldin Auction ending this past weekend!
Cool. Thanks for the info. Was going to mention a month or so ago I was consigning a load of stuff and a lot of it was not very appealing stuff. But mixed in there was some decent stuff. My previous approach was hoarding and if I liked a card I could not have enough copies. So may be moving more to a just one of each to allow me to get more stuff I want.
One of those duplicates was a 1994 refractor PSA 10 of Barry Sanders. It sold for about $247 and think the previous all-time high was 200. The rest of the stuff was like 1980 Schmidt PSA 8 1984 Nestle Ryne Sandberg PSA 9 and a lot of cards where maybe I submitted for grading and had higher hopes and chalked it up as a loss. So weak returns there but it adds up, I will take the cash.
The Barry had me thinking though. Certain types of popular loved players with some level of scarcity. Think we have an opp for a little boom there. Maybe not everything, not the easy to find. I think what I target going forward will fit in that class for the most part if its a substantial investment. Its probably not dramatically different from other times but just think the boost is a little more pronounced on the hard to come by stuff.
Still waiting. My position hasn't changed, nor has the economy. It's routinely more costly to live in this current environment. It wouldn't, or shouldn't prevent strategic practices within our investment plans. As long as we can afford it.
Farewell Ryno.
Agree there's lots of positive energy in our country right now and the future looks bright. For me and the people I work with morale is at an all time high. We are finally allowed to do our job.
You have a great outlook on life and I think its awesome.
I'm in year 6 of funding college and paying interest on a fairly sizable debt. That being said, I maintain hope that my child will one day become self-supportive. The costs have been astounding. I wish you well. Here's a pat on the back.
Farewell Ryno.
No competition on the tuition, it just keeps going up. Loans are not done like "real loans". to get an equity line you have to have a Supreme Court Decision. Student loans - are 180 degrees different. Makes no sense.
I cant say I have a ton of confidence in the lower end of the card market because I can see a lot of people struggling with expendable income. I live in the DC area so plenty of people who had a job last year dont have jobs now.
I probably am a lot more negative on the future of the job market than most because I just feel any job where AI can write some code that a human could have written, those jobs will dry up. How many jobs will fall into that category of can be replaced by AI and automation? If you worked in a warehouse, that opportunity has either already dried up or may soon because it has seemed efficient to use robotic arms and self driving machines that can move things around. I think its a little disturbing how many human jobs could be eliminated as soon as today but also in the next 10 years. In time I think companies like Meta Amazon Microsoft Google with thousands of acres of data center will consult with companies on how to automate more tasks with less staff. I think its in progress but who knows how long it will take to really see signs of it and will people be able to pivot to a next thing.
So the high-end cards where very few can participate I think that is the area that can thrive the same way someone could thrive who could afford $50,000 of Nvidia in early 2023. Layoffs, job elimination, expensive housing, inflation impacts the Babe Ruth card market less than the 2018 PSA 9 Ohtani with a POP of 7,700 or basic non-variation rookies in Topps Chrome Prizm or Heritage. Or cards that you question whether they are worth the grading fee.
I feel like we are in an interesting time if you look at shows like the National or serious big-time shows close to major cities with a large amount of attendees. Those scenes can feel out of control and I may be thinking now its fueled by middle class to upper middle class kids bankrolled by their parents who should not have the money to buy the cards they buy. Here is a couple hundred bucks go learn some life lessons. Or young people with little income going all in on cards.
Maybe for a while it works but I see these kids with their forearms on someone's card case talking like a serious businessman with all sorts of confidence negotiating on a /5 zebra stripe refractor for the Twins #4 pitcher with a 5 ERA and I'm feeling this may not end well. Maybe like 1990 when everybody fancied themselves a serious card investor and were buying 100 card lots of Gary Sheffield and John Olerud.
Vintage withstands this. Although some of the new cards will too. Freddie right now seems like a cheap nice investments. Maybe Altuve. Verlanders aren't that high priced.
right now (withstanding rarer issues) - 1987 and back seems pretty safe. Unopened, sets, singles. and those aren't being sold as much. In fact a case of 1986 Topps is decently tough, 1985 Topps case (almost nonexistent).
Right now Bo Jackson cards are on fire and Deion is heating up too. Wade Boggs rookies, Clemens rookies both heading up.
Baskets Hockey and football - take a little more time and are on the lower end of the spectrum (vintage at least).
I think PSA 9 of football stars from 1977 and back are way underpriced, especially centered ones.
@olb31 I'm fascinated by the upward movement on 80s HOFers or non-HOFers. I could never have predicted the monster action on Gwynn, Sandberg, Boggs, Mattingly, Bonds, McGwire, etc. Shame on me for being a non-believer. I didn't gobble up enough singles when I had the chance. It tempts me to bust a bunch of wax. Sheesh!
Farewell Ryno.
No predictions. I save all my secrets for the underground.
Farewell Ryno.
Boggs has been an extremely underrated player. It is about time he finally gets his cardboard "due!"
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
this could have been such a great thread. then politics...
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
The economy can be and is complicated by many aspects.
very true, but talking politics (and religion) are definite no-nos on this forum. I love to talk politics as much as the next guy, but this just is not the place
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Looks like a coupla Game Misconducts were slapped down by the refs. Hockey is a brutal sport.
Farewell Ryno.
they should know better...
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Let’s not get carried away with this thread. The stock market is a bet on the future. The sports card market can be both leisure and/or a bet on the future. Neither is an indicator of how the economy is doing (in the present).