@RedneckHB said: @GoldFinger1969 said:
I can't see the 10-year getting that high unless inflation makes a move to 4-5%.
Can you see inflation at 4-5%? We were there just 2 years ago. How long would it have to stay at 4-5%?
It would have to PERSIST....a 1 or 2 year "blip" won't change inflation expectations which are actually more important than the ACTUAL past inflation. Of course, actual past inflation does inform inflation expectations.
10-year Treasury would have STRONG demand with a 5-handle. Japanese yields are mid-1's.
It going to be interesting when the Japanese 10 year gets to 4 50%.
Regarding the topic of Japan going bust, @derryb asked: "Their bond market is now imploding. Want to reconsider your answer?"
I'm heading over to Tokyo on Friday so I'll let you know. Having worked in Japan since 1988, I've seen quite a few premature assessments of Japan's demise.
Their bond market is now imploding. Want to reconsider your answer?
Imploding? Their 30 year yield is 2.85%. China's 30 yr is 1.9%
For comparison....your other beloved BRICS....
Brazil 10 year is 14%.
South Africa 10 year is 10.5%
Russia 10 year is 16%
India 10 year is 6.2%
Ethiopia----somewhere between 15 and 30%+.....if you can find a market.
"Long ago, we embarked on an unprecedented monetary policy experiment. And the outcomes will be just as unprecedented. That means neither you, nor I, nor the same rating agencies that were all but complicit in the subprime housing crisis, can predict how this ends."
Hey derryb - can you show that chart starting with Clinton and then including Bush, Obama, etc? Just curious. 🤔 I'm not sure if you created it or borrowed it. 🙂
Yiu can slide the pointer around to see debt level by quarter. To summarize...the last 2 administrations each added about $8 trillion in debt ($16 trillion total) which almost doubles the amount from end of 2016 (Obama administration)
Current tax proposals will ensure massive deficit spending into the future. Way to go Congress!!! Volatility in PM markets will continue.
@blitzdude said:
I've been through these downgrades before. It wasn't pretty. 10 feet through the snow one way just to git to skools. Plan accordingly. Rays of sunshine on those doomsday bunker grapes. Instant therapy. RGDS!!!!
.
The way you write, I guess you never actually made it (to school).
.
Honest to god I'm pretty convinced this is a disinformation account or someone on a troll farm.
@blitzdude said:
I've been through these downgrades before. It wasn't pretty. 10 feet through the snow one way just to git to skools. Plan accordingly. Rays of sunshine on those doomsday bunker grapes. Instant therapy. RGDS!!!!
.
The way you write, I guess you never actually made it (to school).
.
Honest to god I'm pretty convinced this is a disinformation account or someone on a troll farm.
"Long ago, we embarked on an unprecedented monetary policy experiment. And the outcomes will be just as unprecedented. That means neither you, nor I, nor the same rating agencies that were all but complicit in the subprime housing crisis, can predict how this ends."
Hey derryb - can you show that chart starting with Clinton and then including Bush, Obama, etc? Just curious. 🤔 I'm not sure if you created it or borrowed it. 🙂
Yiu can slide the pointer around to see debt level by quarter. To summarize...the last 2 administrations each added about $8 trillion in debt ($16 trillion total) which almost doubles the amount from end of 2016 (Obama administration)
Current tax proposals will ensure massive deficit spending into the future. Way to go Congress!!! Volatility in PM markets will continue.
Thanks! Wish we had debt reduction like we did in the late '90's. 🤔
Comments
Moodys downgrade? just another brick in the wall
ZeroHedge makes debut at White House press corps briefing
It going to be interesting when the Japanese 10 year gets to 4 50%.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Dollar down to lowest level since Dec 2023.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Their bond market is now imploding. Want to reconsider your answer?
ZeroHedge makes debut at White House press corps briefing
Regarding the topic of Japan going bust, @derryb asked: "Their bond market is now imploding. Want to reconsider your answer?"
I'm heading over to Tokyo on Friday so I'll let you know.
Having worked in Japan since 1988, I've seen quite a few premature assessments of Japan's demise.
Imploding? Their 30 year yield is 2.85%. China's 30 yr is 1.9%
For comparison....your other beloved BRICS....
Brazil 10 year is 14%.
South Africa 10 year is 10.5%
Russia 10 year is 16%
India 10 year is 6.2%
Ethiopia----somewhere between 15 and 30%+.....if you can find a market.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It's not "imploding" -- reacting to stronger growth, weaker dollar and higher yields here, etc.
China's 10-year is imloding to the downside...foretelling 30 years of what Japan is just coming out of ?
copied chart
ZeroHedge makes debut at White House press corps briefing
Here's a link to the info you requested.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN
Yiu can slide the pointer around to see debt level by quarter. To summarize...the last 2 administrations each added about $8 trillion in debt ($16 trillion total) which almost doubles the amount from end of 2016 (Obama administration)
Current tax proposals will ensure massive deficit spending into the future. Way to go Congress!!! Volatility in PM markets will continue.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Honest to god I'm pretty convinced this is a disinformation account or someone on a troll farm.
He's fer reel, have did bizness wid him.
ZeroHedge makes debut at White House press corps briefing
Thanks! Wish we had debt reduction like we did in the late '90's. 🤔
The debt increased in each and every year of the '90's