The $100k Mystery Box from Witter - who is getting in on this one?
U1chicago
Posts: 6,279 ✭✭✭✭✭
This might just take the cake!
WitterBrick has made a $100k mystery box with 75 coins. There are only 5 boxes, the highest valued single coin is 102k, and all will be sold on Whatnot.
Who is getting one?
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Comments
if they sell only the grand prize box, they're out a ton of money
The boxes are worth $521k but they’re selling them at a loss for $500k total?
think any unboxing videos will get online?
CPG Price Guide is 521k but the price to acquire them I'm sure was enough under 500k to make a profit.
I believe they have to sell all 5 on Whatnot (or maybe the Whatnot sellers already bought them from Witter).
And I believe they will unbox them after all 5 are sold on Whatnot.
For what it's worth, the same 1851 Humbert sold for $63k in August last year slabbed AU55 NGC with CAC sticker.
Oh, no.
I clicked on the BUY IT NOW green box and I was automatically charged on my VISA card!
peacockcoins
and the spiral begins
It's the Emperor-Has-No-Clothes Box
What’s a what not ?
What's not a whatnot?
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
CPG is full retail correct? My guess is well under $400k "in" these boxes. Probably $300k.
Well, I’m guessing this gamble will test the limits of this concept. 😏
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Am thinking Joey might sell his house and a vital organ for this one, Starbucks coffee in hand!
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Yes CPG is a retail price guide.
I wonder if they’ll actually find five people with that kind of money who are willing to buy that.
Usually people with 100k to burn don’t get to that spot by making decisions like buying a 100k 4/5 chance of a downside box.
Coin Photographer.
I know exactly zero collectors that would even spend $10K sight unseen on a box of coins. Imagine going to ANA, stopping at the very first table, giving the dealer money in exchange for a box and then going straight home. This is not the way a serious numismatist buys his or her coins. One person gets lucky, one dealer wins big by dumping a bunch of inventory, and all the people that get stuck with the trash coins will quit the hobby. Sorry, but this isn’t the way to bring new collectors into the hobby.
$100k. They’re a hundred grand a pop.
Coin Photographer.
Maybe they expect groups of 100 people on whatnot to pool $1k each to get a box (good luck figuring out how to split up the coins though).
Another possibility is to do raffles where 100 people each pay $1k and one person ends up winning the box (and of course leaving 99 people disappointed).
Yes, the point that was making that a serious collector would not spend as low as $10K.
It's a coin toss (pun intended).
This, or Tesla stock.
peacockcoins
It would be funny if they sold one and it turned out to be the 100k coin. I doubt they could sell the other 4.
I would imagine things will be more tightly controlled than that though.
There seem to be quite a few crypto millionaires with plenty of risk tolerance. I think they will sell all 5.
Strategy:
Purchase all five.
Weigh them out and keep the heaviest one.
Blow out the other four at national coins shows for $125.000.00 each.
Your's has the gold and you got it for free.
peacockcoins
This is not coin collecting, this is coin speculation, and as written above there are many crypto millionaires that love to gamble/speculate. I bet all will sell, but overall these gambles are not good for the hobby at large.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Yawn! We have discussed these repeatedly...🤪
An exclamation point after, "yawn"?
Odd.
peacockcoins
One could move some serious inventory utilizing this methodology......at least for awhile.
Hard pass here.
If there is one winner and 4 losers I’ll buy all 5 then I’m a winner.
(Tesla maybe not now and no bets)
I don't think it was a such a hot idea to hit qty: 2 and something bout a green button 🤢
You're comment about raffles reminded me of the old joke about the farmer whose mule died. His friend asked him what he was going to do with it, and the farmer said he was going to sell raffle tickets for $1 to win a mule. So his friend asked him, what are you going do when the winner comes to pick up their mule? To which the farmer replied, oh I'll just refund their dollar.
In all seriousness, I don't have a problem with these mystery boxes in general. They are all gambling, but let's be honest people like to gamble. However, Seth may have jumped the shark with this one. 100K a pop just seems ridiculous IMHO. I'm also confused why they valued the 37-D 3 Legger at $0.00. I would think that such a unique coin (CACG MS50) would be extremely valuable.
Philippians 4:4-7
If these boxes were solely available online through their store then I would agree with you about the pricing point. Witter Coin is only making them available to purchase via 2 large streamers on Whatnot. There are some buyers on that platform that have pretty deep pockets and also don’t seem to mind the attention from the rest of the crowd that they receive from making large purchases.
I see your 100k brick and raise you a 250k brick. A natural follow up progression?
I met a few WN sellers at a major coin show who gathered at a dealer's table while I was going through his inventory. I don't think any of them had a clue as far as numismatics and would put a YN up against any of them. Someone came up with a great place for these people to go when they devised WN.
The requirements to sell coins on WN are quite low which leads to a lot of sellers having less knowledge than the average person on this forum.
That being said, I personally wouldn’t want to test my knowledge against Seth who is also a seller on the WN platform.
Oh okey. One to ten knowledgeable participants out of a thousand ain't bad. I should think it is very smart to sell on WN due to what you may be able to get away with such as mystery boxes. Nevertheless, I've only heard one person complain about what they received in the least expensive of the boxes and that's just hearsay. I wish WN all the luck in the world as they will probably bring in more new people to the coin business.
Buyers might be looking for value beyond the coins in the box. If you’re a streamer/TikTok/YouTube/Insta person, you can get a ton of views and interest from the content around a $100k mystery box. It’s sensational and intriguing to lots of people inside and outside of numismatics.
I don’t think they’re targeting the “average” collector here and Seth would be devastated if someone like me bought one because I wouldn’t bring any eyes to what he’s doing.
My guess is even the “loser” boxes will make the buyers money, over all.
Looks exciting! It will be interesting to see what Witter thinks is a good deal!
Here's the top coin:
It's worth seeing what kind of mileage could be gotten out of the unboxing.
Could be interesting to do a deal with Rick Harrison.
I guess if you have so much money that you're willing to write a $100,000 check for a box of unknown coins, knowing that four out of five of the boxes are a clear loser, you're so desperate for some excitement in life that you play this sort of silly game.
I may envy people with that kind of free cash; but I don't envy the life filled with boredom that would push one to play this silly game.
If that 100k can be afforded/risked on this, instead go all in on Powerball lottery when it hits 500 million or so. Higher reward for the risk. May even hit a lesser prize that comes close to a 100k win to cover your 100k.
i have gone on the record as being against these things since the first VB was announced. That said, please don't make the mistake of confusing this with that. Or even comparing it at all.
No one is actually going to be writing "a $100,000 check for a box of unknown coins, knowing that four out of five of the boxes are a clear loser." Seth knows exactly what he is doing.
These will likely be flipped on WN via some lottery type vehicle through which people will buy shares of the boxes.
Whether they sell 500 shares at $1,000 each, or some other combination of shares and pricing, remains TBD. Just like people flipping unopened VBs on eBay at a profit. And, just like VB, the seller (Witter) and its retail partners will win, along with some gamblers, while most lose.
It might be a clever way for Seth and his 2 retail partners to capture the secondary market flip for themselves, rather than pushing 500 units out the door at $1K each, and then seeing them sell for more on eBay 5 minutes after sell out.
Nothing will be opened until all 375 coins have been sold unopened. They are not stupid, and will not risk having a winner be revealed while the middlemen are still holding inventory, given that 20% of the value of 375 units is contained in one. Everything will be sold in a controlled manner on WN.
Lots of excitement as lots of high value coins are revealed live on WN. Maybe people buy the right to specific coins in the box. Maybe they get a stake in a proportional share of multiple coins that are flipped after opening.
So this is not going to be 5 wealthy collectors each giving Seth $100K on the come for a collective $520K in retail value, sight unseen, and not knowing what they are going to get. This is just a clever way to bundle, and then unbundle, exclusively on WN. Great way to promote Witter and WN, but otherwise no different from what's been happening since VB1.
JMHO. But I think people thinking this is nothing more than a mega version of what has been done are missing the point with this. Because, yeah, no individual, let alone 5 of them, are just going to hand over $100K to anyone for a mystery box where the cumulative wholesale value of all 5 boxes doesn't approach $500K.
Such a transaction would typically be done at a huge discount as opposed to a significant premium. OTOH, the retail market has demonstrated, repeatedly now, an insatiable appetite to gamble on mystery boxes, even though it is well known by now that the house keeps a significant cut for itself. This is just that in another form.
This is what I came here to say. The "price guides" are complete junk for so many coins.
Retail price guides compared to reality (recent auction history) it is really rough for soooo many coin series! Auction prices can be close to 50% back of a retail price guide sometimes. The price guides just make no sense. This 1851 Humbert is a prime example. Demand in this price range is quite low.
Not only that, I would want at least two professional opinions on a coin before spending more than a few thousand dollars. I would want a PCGS graded coin with a CAC sticker. The 1851 Humbert in this example might be look at negatively since it only has a CAC opinion. Some might say that it failed to cross from NGC to PCGS even...then the situation is worse possibly.
If buying a mystery box of stuff with an announced retail value, I would just assume that you could sell the items at auction for a 30-40% loss pretty easily. And with only one opinion on a coin, it could be worse. Heck, it could be worse because we all know that a TPG & CAC have missed problems on the same coins before. Two opinions isn't enough sometimes.
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
I’ll back track on my original thought and say that I think you are likely right about how the most of the boxes will be purchased. I’d be willing to make a side bet with you that at least one box is bought by an individual that isn’t looking to immediately flip the contents.
There is one person that purchased 17 of the players boxes in a single transaction on a stream for $170k (vs a $127.5k MSRP) two months ago. This $100k box seems right up their alley.
Dude could have cleaned his nails before doing so.
::yuck::
peacockcoins
Are all the brick coins listed / known already?
Yes. Check the link in the OP.