Interest rates

Rates moving higher tonight in response to anticipated higher inflation and massive deficits.

@cohodk said:
Rates moving higher tonight in response to anticipated higher inflation and massive deficits.

Massive as in 'more massive' than the ones we have had for the last 4 years? The final non-pandemic deficit under 45 was $984 billion. FY24 - with no pandemic - was $1.8 trillion.

@taxmad said:

@cohodk said:
Rates moving higher tonight in response to anticipated higher inflation and massive deficits.

Massive as in 'more massive' than the ones we have had for the last 4 years? The final non-pandemic deficit under 45 was $984 billion. FY24 - with no pandemic - was $1.8 trillion.

Yes. More massive.

" The market is signalling that the Fed is too loose and that GDP growth and/or inflation are running hot. "

My suspicion is that inflation has NOT been tamed. The numbers have been manipulated by the powers that be, to try to give the impression of low inflation. I still see plenty of rising prices. Can't wait to see what my next car/home insurance rates are...

@Goldminers said:
The market likes the idea of a potentially lower 15% capital gain tax rate which should also help with any PM gains next year. Every indication is the house is red, too.

Capital gains tax is already at 15% for married joint filers earning up to almost $600,000. Ain't no relief for the little guy there. PMs would need to be reclassified. Again, that ain't helping the little guy.

The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Need lower rates to avoid massive government debt interest payments, but we need higher rates to prevent inflation caused by the debt.

No win scenario. Where is Capitan Kirk?

Asset inflation will outpace goods and services price inflation. The haves will rejoice, the have nots will cry.

Quite the irony. Lol

28%

@derryb said:
Market interest rates are rising while FED funds rate was just lowered! Dat normally don't happen. A rising 10-year
One of the reasons to lower interest rates is to put money into the hands of small businesses, the engine of growth in the US economy. That hasn’t happened. Interest rates on small business loans have been rising since 2020, and instead of falling after the Fed’s September cut, they spiked:

Look for gold to continue to shine in the ensuing confusion. Warren Buffet's playbook show he believe a recession is coming.

They just cut it give it a little time. Smaller small business banks have to manage the risk in their portfolio and that premium takes time to ease.
I see gold as an indicator things are stabilizing and it just stabilized. I think the days of +100 a month are in the past. I have to liquidate a large PM holding and turn it into cash and that cash is not going into gold etf's.

Edit: If I had a choice to keep my physical gold I would because to me having it real is the only way if you are going to have it.

@Goldminers said:
No win scenario. Where is Capitan Kirk?

Stuck in the elevator ?

@tincup said:
" There is no manipulation. The entire process is 100% transparent. "
I don't agree with that. But as I am fond of saying.... I'm no expert.

I am.

My first job out of college was working on economic statistics as a junior economist. You can debate the COMPOSITION of how the numbers are put together (i.e., hedonics) but you can't say it all isn't 100% out in the open.

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@tincup said:
" There is no manipulation. The entire process is 100% transparent. "
I don't agree with that. But as I am fond of saying.... I'm no expert.

I am.

My first job out of college was working on economic statistics as a junior economist. You can debate the COMPOSITION of how the numbers are put together (i.e., hedonics) but you can't say it all isn't 100% out in the open.

The only inflation that really matters to me is my own, not what's reflected in the too many to name indices.

@derryb said:

@WCC said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@tincup said:
" There is no manipulation. The entire process is 100% transparent. "
I don't agree with that. But as I am fond of saying.... I'm no expert.

I am.

Coho's boss?

Not part of that conversation.

Unfortunately, the interest rates at my banks appear to be decreasing. For standard savings account it looks like PNC has cut me to 3.93% and Capital One has lowered me to 3.90%. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. RGDS!