Sometimes collecting sucks
72skywalker
Posts: 1,540 ✭✭✭
As a Yankee fan I have most of Aaron judge's rookie cards. I got them when they first came out, so I did not pay an arm and a leg. I noticed that I was missing his Topps Heritage 1968 game card. There was a dealer at our local monthly show that had it for $150 last month. I see that it sells for about $200 on ebay so his price is very fair. I also saw that a few months ago it only sold for about $60. I know that this is the absolutely worst time to buy anything Aaron Judge so I passed on it and thought to myself that I will wait until the end of the season to see what it is and maybe when the hype is down it will be cheaper. The whole month I am thinking about it and figured that I should just buy it. I go back this month with $150 to buy it and he tells me that he just sold it to another dealer (15 minutes earlier) who has it for sale for $185. It took me a whole month to talk myself into buying it for $150 now I need to justify spending an extra $35 on it. I might hold off until the off season to see what it does (Or I might wait another month and pay even more from that new dealer.) Sometime collecting and procrastination sucks.
Comments
If he gets into the world series and/or is crowned mvp it might go even higher. You just never know, but is best to buy early and take your chances, rather than wait and regret it later. Good luck.
I’m a huge Judge fan and didn’t get the cards I wanted. I sat around lazily in the offseason. Finally pulled the trigger on the card that got me buying modern - 2017 Heritage Auto. I paid way more than I should have. But a lot less than they go for now.
The card you are talking about is one of my favorites. I opened a slew of Target blasters looking for them. I did grade one of the 2 last year and got the 10. It really is such a nice card I would just add it.
I believe this is around where they say in 2022.
John
I wouldn't pursue it now. Just so little upside I think because appreciation of him is off the charts. He has hit .410 ish in the last 30 days. Saw about .381 over a very long stretch of time. At the plate he looks like he is playing softball, waiting for the ball to get there. In April he couldn't hit a ball to save his life. Now it looks like old Manny Ramirez David Ortiz where nobody could throw a ball past them.
His career #s are not incredible for his age. Its just different than most everybody in history. The trend. At 32, he is at his absolute best and is rocketing upwards. Most guys dont fall apart at 32 but a bit of the shine is coming off. Machado still doing well but some drop in HRs. Judge is taking off.
The career looks incredibly similar to Sammy Sosa at this point. In his 20s Sosa had some nice power but not incredible. Could not hit that well. .260s. He turned 30 and he learned how to hit. He turned 31 and he really learned how to hit. He hits .320 at age 31. Hits .328 at age 32. The HR per AB go off the charts. In his 20s about 1 per 15 16 17 ABs. In his early to mid 30s 1 per 9.5. Ruth territory.
Judge is in the same space. Rookie year was a bit different but even that was a surprise. He had a 40 hit tool. Noone felt he could hit. So .284 was nice. .270s followed. HR per AB maybe 1 per 14 1 per 15. Then he turned 30. Hits .311. HR per AB similarly 1 per 9.5 ish besting Ruth. Doing it again at 32 and having his best average year by a longshot so far.
So Judge needs to similarly be a 50 HR or more guy the way Sosa was in his early to mid 30s to hit a similar HR total. Which feels very possible while abnormal. Sosa was beloved while he was playing then villainized later. Probably wont happen to Judge but who knows.
Big Yankes fan 3rd generation and believe me when I tell you this us no WS contender. Way too many holes including a closer who is a total liability and is on pace for most Blown Saves in a single season.
But yeah no worse time to buy a Judge Card than today and will likely become more so with every HR the rest of the season and possible MVP win.
I hate watching this team in general so I tune in for the Soto and Judge ABs only.
BTW with Judge key was reducing strikeouts. He still does so at a high rate but not alarmingly so.
IMHO Sosa keys was roids, Judge its improved pitch recognition via less chasing the unhittable stuff.
Yeah, I have taken an interest because I am an Os fan and need him to produce less. 😄 But now I just see it as hopeless and say walk him always. With the bases loaded like Bonds.
Funny the Rays know how to pitch him, even at his best. Wondered why the league could not follow their path. They pitch him down and away a lot and seems like that sinking stuff on the lower left side of the plate he cant do much with. Fast and close to the armpits not his wheelhouse either.
Its funny though, for the last 3 years I have noticed guys throwing stuff close to the middle of the plate with little to no movement and he hammers it. Would think okay this never works. Stop doing it. High part of the strike zone with all you got or down and away and if he does not swing that is that. Try some of the other guys who are a LOT LOT easier. Tougher with Stanton now but before it was like come on pitch to Wells with him on first.
But agree he is getting better at laying off the stuff that is not his high % material. Also just seems like he has become better at everything. One at bat inside slap it like Ichiro next at bat hit it 475 feet.
I've seen Judge take 2 high-ish inside pitches out this month. I believe it was O'Neill who mentioned he has learned to pull his hands and arms in on those. In fairness both those pitches were in the low 90's, approaching 100 he woudl not be able.
Judge's numbers would be truly terrifying if he was a better contact hitter like Soto.
With Judge, Ohtani, Soto, and now Whitt Jr entering the conversation there is some serious generational talent playing right now. Apologies if I left a few players out. The point is enjoy it!
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
If I want something really bad? I'll bite the bullet.
But, in general, if I've "missed the boat?" Then I missed the boat and move on.
I've got many regrets too numerous to count.
If the best numbers in baseball by a large margin isn't terrifying, then what the heck do you expect out of him?
Everyone in baseball should be looking at what Judge is doing and trying to replicate that, not the other way around.
If I were you I'd buy the next one available.
You didn't say if you're looking at raw or PSA 10, but it doesn’t really matter.
It's a "bad" time to buy his cards, but is it going to get better, or worse?
If he wins the MVP, prices will go up. If he has another great year next year, prices will go up. If he gets hurt or plays poorly for a year, prices will probably not drop much, if any, unless it's a career ending situation.
Not sure what your budget is, but if you have been grabbing his cards from the beginning you're WAY AHEAD.
Go for it!
There is absolutely no chance on Earth he does not win the MVP. Baked into whatever the current price of his cards is.
Then its does anybody in history ever have dramatically astronomically better seasons in their early to mid 30s than they did in their 20s? Without any negative baggage and eyebrow raising? Can he have seasons like this over and over again? Only guys named Sosa Bonds and McGwire have.
In his 20s, outside of the rookie year, he could not stay healthy and the HR totals were nice. But not historic. Now he is getting old for baseball and he is putting up historically awesome seasons. Can you count on that continuing like it is now? History says no. But he could be the exception.
I honestly thought his career was over in April. He was atrocious. Could not hit anything. Flailing at stuff with no confidence. Had his golden sombrero. They said he had a toe injury last year and he may never recover from it. So I felt game over and worst contract in baseball history. Beating Chris Davis from my team. Stats were very pedestrian or below average from late last year to late April. Then ??? Who knows what happened? He certainly got past the toe injury.