Bid:Watch percentage?

JimW · December 19, 2023 7:23PM

We see in various auction venues the number of 'watchers' - wondering what percentage of watched coins you actually bid on? As a late bidder usually, I would say I actually bid on maybe 5% of my watched coins (probably more like 2-3%). This is due to various reasons, such as just being busy with other life things, bid has gone too high by the time I check in, closer inspection of the lot reveals coin is subpar for the grade IMO, etc. Anyway, just wondering how much the number of watchers is really indicative of competition for a lot at the time of auction close... what do you think?

vplite99 · December 19, 2023 7:28PM

I think many of the watchers have a similar item they are considering selling.

JimW · December 19, 2023 7:38PM

I agree @vplite99 I have seen coins go unsold for weeks with 10+ watchers. One I recently acquired I think fit this bill, as I finally decided to offer a price I thought was fair and it was accepted, i.e., the seller realized most watchers were not really interested in buying.

seatedlib3991 · December 19, 2023 7:47PM

I do not track coins I already own. I do make note of them and sometimes check auction results, but my tracking method is probably deceptive. I put coins in my list I am interested in.
I leave them there and occasionally check bid amounts. Three days before the auction I will make the call as to whether I think the current price is already too high. I set my exact bid and wait for the day of the auction and if it is not past my preset limit I will place a bid and let it ride. Keeps me out of bidding wars but in truth 0 to3 coins may actually be still alive. that means 9 out of 10 coins I am tracking have already been written off. James

U1chicago · December 19, 2023 7:53PM

@JimW said:
I agree @vplite99 I have seen coins go unsold for weeks with 10+ watchers. One I recently acquired I think fit this bill, as I finally decided to offer a price I thought was fair and it was accepted, i.e., the seller realized most watchers were not really interested in buying.

I think there is a slight difference between watchers for buy it now items as opposed to auctions. For buy it now items, I think most watchers are either waiting for the price to be lowered (seller sending an offer) or to see if the item ever sells (potentially because they have a similar one or they think the price is high). For auctions, I think a good chunk of the watchers plan to bid (if it is a no reserve auction) but most never do when the coin goes beyond a certain price (many are just watching to see if they can get the coin cheap/below comps).

For me, I tend to watch only a handful of auctions. If it is something that I only have a passing interest in, I will just bid my max right away and forget about it. If it is a coin I want more, then I will watch and come back at the end to bid. There are also some that I watch just to see what they go for (one particular category of those are sellers that have negative feedback saying they have canceled auctions; those are coins I will just watch out of curiosity without bidding).

PapiNE · December 19, 2023 9:22PM

Approx 20%. On Monday or Tuesday, I'll select 4 to 6 coins that will improve my collection and set a max bid in my notes. I check them throughout the week and delete them if over or near my max bid. The day of the auction, I'll do a closer inspection of the coin(s) and, if any are left, I'll set my phone alarm for approx 10 minutes before the ball drops. This past week there were two left and I got one of them. This week only one to watch but it doesn't excite me so probably a drop.

winesteven · December 19, 2023 9:38PM

Excluding eBay, where I rarely buy coins, I bid at the end on the vast majority of coins I “Watch”.

Steve

HillbillyCollector · December 19, 2023 10:52PM

1-2% for me. I watch quite a few coins but usually always bid at the auction end. Prices often get out of range before I actually make a bid.

Walkerfan · December 20, 2023 12:46AM

I watch everything that I think is interesting and some things that I just want to see what they are going to sell for, as a sort of market analysis, so maybe bid on 5% or 10%

jmlanzaf · December 20, 2023 7:21AM

@U1chicago said:

@JimW said:
I agree @vplite99 I have seen coins go unsold for weeks with 10+ watchers. One I recently acquired I think fit this bill, as I finally decided to offer a price I thought was fair and it was accepted, i.e., the seller realized most watchers were not really interested in buying.

I think there is a slight difference between watchers for buy it now items as opposed to auctions. For buy it now items, I think most watchers are either waiting for the price to be lowered (seller sending an offer) or to see if the item ever sells (potentially because they have a similar one or they think the price is high). For auctions, I think a good chunk of the watchers plan to bid (if it is a no reserve auction) but most never do when the coin goes beyond a certain price (many are just watching to see if they can get the coin cheap/below comps).

For me, I tend to watch only a handful of auctions. If it is something that I only have a passing interest in, I will just bid my max right away and forget about it. If it is a coin I want more, then I will watch and come back at the end to bid. There are also some that I watch just to see what they go for (one particular category of those are sellers that have negative feedback saying they have canceled auctions; those are coins I will just watch out of curiosity without bidding).

I once had an auction item with 40 watchers that got zero bids.

coinbuf · December 20, 2023 7:30AM

Depends on the venue, for many auctions like Stacks or Heritage I will put in lots of $5 or $10 bids the day the auction starts as a way to watch those items. Obviously, I will be outbid on all of them and I may only bid seriously on one and sometimes none. For ebay I will watch a few items but I have only bid or won two or three items from ebay in the past 4ish years, on that site I am usually just watching as it has become a dumping ground or items and anything nice is massively overpriced.

winesteven · December 20, 2023 9:41AM

@coinbuf said:
Depends on the venue, for many auctions like Stacks or Heritage I will put in lots of $5 or $10 bids the day the auction starts as a way to watch those items. Obviously, I will be outbid on all of them and I may only bid seriously on one and sometimes none. For ebay I will watch a few items but I have only bid or won two or three items from ebay in the past 4ish years, on that site I am usually just watching as it has become a dumping ground or items and anything nice is massively overpriced.

I also watch on HA and Stacks, and they still email me updates and I can easily click on my "Watchlist" without having to place any initial tiny bid.

Steve

WCC · December 20, 2023 9:44AM

Outside of eBay where I no longer actively buy, it's mostly Heritage or Stacks where I "watch" any lots.

Most are only coins of some interest to me. If it's a coin I really want to buy, I'll both bid on it beforehand to avoid forgetting altogether and then bid live too if necessary.

There are a relatively large number of coins of interest to me in the upcoming Stacks sale, all of the same series though it's a secondary collection.

In typical fashion, the coin I want most comes up dead last and most of the coins of most interest to me won't be cheap by my budget parameters either. So, then it's a trade-off between being "shut out" altogether and running out of budget as the auction progresses.

These are coins which are very difficult to virtually impossible to buy. Same seller (or presumably family collection) as one of my catalogs from 1991.

U1chicago · December 20, 2023 9:57AM

@jmlanzaf said:

@U1chicago said:

@JimW said:
I agree @vplite99 I have seen coins go unsold for weeks with 10+ watchers. One I recently acquired I think fit this bill, as I finally decided to offer a price I thought was fair and it was accepted, i.e., the seller realized most watchers were not really interested in buying.

I think there is a slight difference between watchers for buy it now items as opposed to auctions. For buy it now items, I think most watchers are either waiting for the price to be lowered (seller sending an offer) or to see if the item ever sells (potentially because they have a similar one or they think the price is high). For auctions, I think a good chunk of the watchers plan to bid (if it is a no reserve auction) but most never do when the coin goes beyond a certain price (many are just watching to see if they can get the coin cheap/below comps).

For me, I tend to watch only a handful of auctions. If it is something that I only have a passing interest in, I will just bid my max right away and forget about it. If it is a coin I want more, then I will watch and come back at the end to bid. There are also some that I watch just to see what they go for (one particular category of those are sellers that have negative feedback saying they have canceled auctions; those are coins I will just watch out of curiosity without bidding).

I once had an auction item with 40 watchers that got zero bids.

That’s more than I can say I’ve seen. My most was a buy it now item with around 12 watchers and no buyers.

coinbuf · December 20, 2023 4:04PM

@winesteven said:

@coinbuf said:
Depends on the venue, for many auctions like Stacks or Heritage I will put in lots of $5 or $10 bids the day the auction starts as a way to watch those items. Obviously, I will be outbid on all of them and I may only bid seriously on one and sometimes none. For ebay I will watch a few items but I have only bid or won two or three items from ebay in the past 4ish years, on that site I am usually just watching as it has become a dumping ground or items and anything nice is massively overpriced.

I also watch on HA and Stacks, and they still email me updates and I can easily click on my "Watchlist" without having to place any initial tiny bid.

Steve

Very true, but its fun to be the high bidder on a $100,000 coin, even if for just a few hours.

PeakRarities · December 20, 2023 4:36PM

Id say i'm around 10%

pcgscacgold · December 20, 2023 4:42PM

I rarely click "Watch". I visit early and place a bid. Then just look at where things are. I win less than 1% of what I bid on. Some weeks I have 20-30 bids out there. Easiest way to see what things close at.

Cougar1978 · December 20, 2023 5:38PM

I watch 6-12 items of interest then near auc close may input or ramp up bids in final seconds then reel her in for the win. If item already bid up too high may hunt for something else. In any auc always possible somebody put in nuk bid multiples of MV. So even if snooker them in final seconds…..

jmlanzaf · December 20, 2023 5:47PM

@U1chicago said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@U1chicago said:

@JimW said:
I agree @vplite99 I have seen coins go unsold for weeks with 10+ watchers. One I recently acquired I think fit this bill, as I finally decided to offer a price I thought was fair and it was accepted, i.e., the seller realized most watchers were not really interested in buying.

I think there is a slight difference between watchers for buy it now items as opposed to auctions. For buy it now items, I think most watchers are either waiting for the price to be lowered (seller sending an offer) or to see if the item ever sells (potentially because they have a similar one or they think the price is high). For auctions, I think a good chunk of the watchers plan to bid (if it is a no reserve auction) but most never do when the coin goes beyond a certain price (many are just watching to see if they can get the coin cheap/below comps).

For me, I tend to watch only a handful of auctions. If it is something that I only have a passing interest in, I will just bid my max right away and forget about it. If it is a coin I want more, then I will watch and come back at the end to bid. There are also some that I watch just to see what they go for (one particular category of those are sellers that have negative feedback saying they have canceled auctions; those are coins I will just watch out of curiosity without bidding).

I once had an auction item with 40 watchers that got zero bids.

That’s more than I can say I’ve seen. My most was a buy it now item with around 12 watchers and no buyers.

It was a relatively scarce item with a reasonable, but high opening bid. I thought I was going to be rich! LOL

U1chicago · December 20, 2023 5:55PM

@jmlanzaf said:

@U1chicago said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@U1chicago said:

@JimW said:
I agree @vplite99 I have seen coins go unsold for weeks with 10+ watchers. One I recently acquired I think fit this bill, as I finally decided to offer a price I thought was fair and it was accepted, i.e., the seller realized most watchers were not really interested in buying.

I think there is a slight difference between watchers for buy it now items as opposed to auctions. For buy it now items, I think most watchers are either waiting for the price to be lowered (seller sending an offer) or to see if the item ever sells (potentially because they have a similar one or they think the price is high). For auctions, I think a good chunk of the watchers plan to bid (if it is a no reserve auction) but most never do when the coin goes beyond a certain price (many are just watching to see if they can get the coin cheap/below comps).

For me, I tend to watch only a handful of auctions. If it is something that I only have a passing interest in, I will just bid my max right away and forget about it. If it is a coin I want more, then I will watch and come back at the end to bid. There are also some that I watch just to see what they go for (one particular category of those are sellers that have negative feedback saying they have canceled auctions; those are coins I will just watch out of curiosity without bidding).

I once had an auction item with 40 watchers that got zero bids.

That’s more than I can say I’ve seen. My most was a buy it now item with around 12 watchers and no buyers.

It was a relatively scarce item with a reasonable, but high opening bid. I thought I was going to be rich! LOL

Did it eventually sell for somewhat less?

Floridafacelifter · December 20, 2023 5:58PM

I watch:
1) to bid (10%)
2) to see what some crazy rarity goes for (30%)
3) because I have one and want to see how it performs at present (30%)
4) in my primary area of interest to understand the market (30%)

jmlanzaf · December 20, 2023 6:14PM

@U1chicago said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@U1chicago said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@U1chicago said:

@JimW said:
I agree @vplite99 I have seen coins go unsold for weeks with 10+ watchers. One I recently acquired I think fit this bill, as I finally decided to offer a price I thought was fair and it was accepted, i.e., the seller realized most watchers were not really interested in buying.

I think there is a slight difference between watchers for buy it now items as opposed to auctions. For buy it now items, I think most watchers are either waiting for the price to be lowered (seller sending an offer) or to see if the item ever sells (potentially because they have a similar one or they think the price is high). For auctions, I think a good chunk of the watchers plan to bid (if it is a no reserve auction) but most never do when the coin goes beyond a certain price (many are just watching to see if they can get the coin cheap/below comps).

For me, I tend to watch only a handful of auctions. If it is something that I only have a passing interest in, I will just bid my max right away and forget about it. If it is a coin I want more, then I will watch and come back at the end to bid. There are also some that I watch just to see what they go for (one particular category of those are sellers that have negative feedback saying they have canceled auctions; those are coins I will just watch out of curiosity without bidding).

I once had an auction item with 40 watchers that got zero bids.

That’s more than I can say I’ve seen. My most was a buy it now item with around 12 watchers and no buyers.

It was a relatively scarce item with a reasonable, but high opening bid. I thought I was going to be rich! LOL

Did it eventually sell for somewhat less?

Nope. Raised the price and it sold as a BIN.

2ndCharter · December 20, 2023 6:36PM

I once had an auction item with 40 watchers that got zero bids.

Several years ago, there was a lot in a Heritage Signature auction that had 17 watchers. The night of the auction, I won the lot for the opening bid. None of the watchers ever bid.

alaura22 · December 20, 2023 6:47PM

@Walkerfan said:
I watch everything that I think is interesting and some things that I just want to see what they are going to sell for, as a sort of market analysis, so maybe bid on 5% or 10%

This^

Tom147 · December 20, 2023 8:16PM

I typically go through auctions about 5 or 6 days prior to close. See what catches my eye or upgrades my sets. Then, the day of, I go through and eliminate what is already close or past my max bid. I'm sure we've all seen coins that languish below market value until an hour before close then sell for multiples of market value. Usually try to be online at close. Make my max. bid as close to closing as I can, leaving myself not enough time to place another bid. If I win, GREAT. If not, OH WELL !

Cougar1978 · December 21, 2023 6:05AM

The greater the watchers the more likelihood your going to get serious bid competition in the closing minute. It’s possible some have already put in high bids way in excess of MV. I will scout the items early on, put in notes, then bid as close to closing as I can hope for the best. For eBay I just use AS. Try not get carried away - stay within budget.

divecchia · December 21, 2023 8:16AM

My percentage looks to be higher than most that have replied. I bid on about 20%-25% of the items that I watch on eBay and Heritage. I don't watch many items and it's very rare that I watch an item that I don't intend to bid on.

Donato

Herb_T · December 21, 2023 8:28AM

I used to sell tools on eBay. When the number of people watching a sale started to increase, even though I had a buy it now price available, I would start increasing the price. Yeah, not down but up. Items always sold.

jmlanzaf · December 21, 2023 8:52AM

@Herb_T said:
I used to sell tools on eBay. When the number of people watching a sale started to increase, even though I had a buy it now price available, I would start increasing the price. Yeah, not down but up. Items always sold.

Yeah. I'm thinking of doubling my prices on stale merchandise and then having a 50% off holiday sale.

Bid:Watch percentage?

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