Vintage Wax Investment Potential

theWaxman · December 28, 2009 6:39PM

Hello all,

I am new to the site. I just wanted to ask the opinions of some of the knowledgable collectors on here regarding vintage wax from the 50s-70s for baseball, football and basketball.

Do you see 1970-1976 unopened wax and empty boxes as undervalued and with a good ROI over a minumum 10 year span considering current prices?

Also do you think that 1950s and 1960s wax may have peaked for the most part?

I know its impossible to predict any commodity market but just seeing what some people feel.

In addition where can one get a 1953 & 1956 baseball, 1956 & 1958 football and 1957 Topps basketball wax pack? I know there rare but they seem impossible. I can get almost everything else but I can't find these anywhere, did see a 56 football recently on ebay but missed out on it.

Well thanks for your thoughts.

Waxman

csmtampa · December 28, 2009 7:19PM

As far as wax from 70-76, I see a atleast a minimum of current value holding up. In 10 years it will determine how plentiful any particular product is.

If people keep opening it up, than yes I can see prices going up some, but not too much, it will depend on the set.

50's and 60's wax - Depending on how much is out there currently, and how much is out there in 10 years will answer your question.

For the packs you are seeking out, I suggest you subscribe to the numerous auction houses and receive their auction catalogs.

If the item your actively seeking is not in the catalog, it makes a great resource for something you might be in the future.

jeffcbay · December 28, 2009 9:40PM

If you go to BaseballCardExchange.com they have a nice variety of unopened vintage wax, and it's the #1 source for authentic unopened material.

I don't see any of the wax that you have listed, but they do have 1958 Football Cello packs.

Allen · December 29, 2009 2:05AM

TTT for the panicking new member who cannot find his own thread.

fattymacs · December 29, 2009 2:13AM

Just to make sure it's at the absolute top of the page.

RipublicaninMass · December 29, 2009 2:17AM

ok ttt!

vladguerrero · December 29, 2009 2:29AM

where am I? when I use the search function I'm not getting any results back, I've never had this happen with Ebay before.

Griffins · December 29, 2009 2:37AM

'56 baseball is just about impossible- Steve Hart told me he had a list of buyers for that pack, but it had been a long time since he'd seen a legit one. If you could find one at a decent price (less than $10k) you would certainly make a profit on it.
'53 packs are out there- Mastro had a bunch a few years ago. '58 is really, really tough, and there are some fakes in GAI slabs out there.
The problem with speculating with wax is that a single find can blow the entire market apart. If someone came up with '56 packs and sold them all at once (like the '64 Standup penny packs) the bottom would fall out of the market since there aren't that many people putting together a wax run.
As far as '60's and '70's packs go, there are a fair amount out there and it would seem much more likely to be flooded with a find. Look what happened to '75 mini's when Charlie Conlon died. What if Fritsch decided to liquidate? Not only would pack prices collapse so would the entire graded market, especially the low pops that go for stupid amounts. The market is relatively thin for high end and packs for those decades, and the supply is out there.
Welcome to the boards, and don't freak out when you can't find your thread- there are only a few things you can post about that will get a thread killed, and you didn't come close to any of those topics.

Allen · December 29, 2009 3:15AM

A 56 pack would really be worth over $10,000 ?

gumbyfan · December 29, 2009 3:49AM

Hi Waxman, welcome to the looney bin. If you ever have trouble finding one of your recent posts, click on "Today" in the top right part of the page. Once that page loads, you should find a list of your most current posts.

The teasing is in good fun...so please don't overreact like some of the folks around here (sportscardtheory, etc.) when people tease. It's a generally good group of guys around here.

divecchia · December 29, 2009 3:58AM

and good luck with your wax collecting.

Donato

mikeschmidt · December 29, 2009 4:28AM

<< A 56 pack would really be worth over $10,000 ? >>

A penny pack would not be so bad -- perhaps $500 or so. But the nickel pack is darn near impossible, as Griffin mentioned.

Brick · December 29, 2009 4:28AM

Hi, hello, how are ya?

Sitting on unopened vintage for a long period of time would scare the heck out of me. So many things could go wrong. But that's just me.

Indy78 · December 29, 2009 4:31AM

Given what I'm hearing and what I've observed about relatively few young folks becoming sports card collectors today, I feel the pool of collectors will shrink going into the next few decades. If that turns out to be the case, you'll probably hold value on wax (and sports cards in general) over the next 10-20 years as the 30-40-50 somethings continue to collect (and age), but beyond that I really doubt it. I just can't see who would want to buy this stuff a few decades from now.

Next time you're at a Walmart, Target, hobby shop, or card show, observe and look who's browsing sports cards. My observations in the DC area where I live are that adults about 30 and over outnumber pre-teens and teenagers easily 30 or 40 to 1, and the average age of a card dealer at a show today is easily 45-50+. I'm 40, and I'm one of the youngest collectors I see at the card shows I attend. And the few kids I see in the card aisle at my local Walmart/Target are browsing Pokemon cards.

I've given up any hope of ROI from an economic standpoint, and collect cards because it's nostalgic for me (I first collected as a 9-year-old). I'm currently sorting a 1991 Topps baseball set I received for Christmas and plan to build a 1989 Topps BB set from packs. I'm having the time of life for a few bucks (literally), and that's my ROI.

Indy78 · December 29, 2009 4:32AM

....and welcome to the boards! It's alot of fun here!

summerof68 · December 29, 2009 8:36AM

Griffins made one of the most thought provoking assertions I have ever heard on these boards. I agree as well that if Fritsch's son decided to liquidate his entire inventory of unopened vintage material it would have devastating effects on the hobby. Based on the past selling history of Fritsch it is apparent to me that he began hoarding factory cases from all sports beginning in 1968. If this is the case then I concur with Griffins and I would predict a signicant collapse in value on low pop PSA singles from 1968 to 1980 from all sports should a liquidation occur.

Similarly wax, cello & vending prices would significantly fall for all sports from 1968 to 1980 as well. One curious aspect though is that over the years Fritsch regularly sold his wax, cellos and vending but I never saw him sell Topps rack packs from '68 thru '74. I've always wondered if for some reason he chose not to purchase racks from Topps during those years. Or perhaps, knowing that they yield the nicest conditioned cards, he chose not to open them and still has a massive hoard.

And for those of you that think he must nearly be out of the old stuff he originally purchased from Topps back in the late '60's--well think again. Recently his son opened a (case) each of '68, '69 & '70 Topps baseball cellos and had many slabbed by PSA!

I've caught myself daydreaming many a moment about how many late 60's and early 70's factory cases still rest in that small-town country warehouse!!!

Griffins · December 29, 2009 8:50AM

I'd heard the big stash goes back to '59.

daddymc · December 29, 2009 8:54AM

Not wishing ill will by any means by asking this, but what effect do you think there would be to the market due to a catastropic loss of this "big stash"? Didn't Mark Murphy have a devastating warehouse fire several years ago?

Griffins · December 29, 2009 9:07AM

if there was a big loss of a lot of material that had not yet been introduced to the market there would be no effect. On the opposite side, if it flooded the market the prices would plummet as supply increases.
So what would happen if supply continues as it is? From my perspective there seems to be more people getting out of the hobby than entering it, so I would expect a slow growth on any common post war material- Topps, Bowman, Leaf, Fleer, etc.
The truly rare items will continue to go up- Test issues, tougher packs, tough regionals, rarities and high demand scarcities like '52 Topps high numbers.
The registry initially caused people to spend $15 to grade a $2 card, but that core seems to have been satisfied and it's not running up like it used to. The economy hasn't helped, and vcp has made knowledge a lot easier to come by and made the market more efficient while slowing the rise of prices.
All this is great news for collectors and bad news for speculators and flippers, so for most of us (myself included) it's a win-win. Make putting together a collection a bit more affordable and cutting out the middle men.

EAsports · December 29, 2009 9:18AM

<< I've caught myself daydreaming many a moment about how many late 60's and early 70's factory cases still rest in that small-town country warehouse!!! >>

I say we saddle up if/when the Mad Max days get here!

itzagoner · December 29, 2009 9:19AM

were it true, i would welcome the increased availability of 60s product in the open market and i think at least some people would agree, there's still a lot there which makes these cards immensely popular with collectors, flippers, dealers & the like, and while price drops may occur, i don't see a catastrophe in such a highly competitive market....for some of us, it would level the playing field enough to allow certain things which were once thought unattainable to become more affordable, should they become more readily offered when this stuff pours out of the warehouse doors like mud in a flood.

daddymc · December 29, 2009 9:21AM

Griffins, thanks for the insight. So even though there is wide speculation of a "big stash", it's not priced into the market right now. Definitely good for collectors long-term if they can learn to dial back their OCD and be patient.

summerof68 · December 29, 2009 10:54AM

<<>>

I know that from 2005 to 2007 Fritsch routinely flooded Mastro with '68 thru '80 unopened material from all sports. Based on this I made the assumption that Fritsch began hoarding Topps factory cases beginning in '68. He soon thereafter opened his first retail store in '70.

But to entertain the notion that his "big stash" actually goes back to '59 is mind blowing in the least.

Be it '68 or '59 how fortunate his son is to inherit the benefits of his father's foresight.

proofer2 · December 29, 2009 11:33AM

If there still is an ample supply of unopened 50's/60's stuff out there (especially unopened boxes), then there must be many collectors that feel there is still quite a bit of upside potential. Otherwise, I'd think we'd see more stuff on a regular basis coming to market. I mean if I were Fritsch and I thought the potential return in the future was diminishing, I would systematically be liquidating my position as quickly and efficiently as possible and moving that money into something that was expected to bring a better return. Just a thought...

grote15 · December 29, 2009 1:16PM

As a 1975 Topps mini collector, I've noticed an odd anamoly, though, in that despite the increase in availability of product due to the liquidation of the Conlon collection), the value of such has held steady and even increased to some extent, and while the pops have increased for higher-end or tougher examples of certain cards, those increases have not been as significant as assumed, and the market for the lower pop minis remains strong (for cards that fill the holder, at least).

I realize that a number of those cases remain sealed at the moment (and that may be the case for other issues liquidated as well), but a lot of packs were busted, too, by the more avid collectors of this set.

theWaxman · December 29, 2009 1:44PM

Thanks for all your informative responses and for welcoming me.
Also I want to apologize for my idiotic second thread written in haste before work this morning.

First I want to say that I absolutely love this hobby and am not in it just for money or really at all. It's just that when you are spending $500 + a pack you don't want it to go down like a wax box of 87 Topps or set of 88 Score or something sad from the 80s-90s.

I think a good point that Griffins and others mentioned is the lack of interest among people less than 40 yrs old which is scary. Although even with a declining interest the really scarce stuff will always have less supply then demand IMO mostly 50s packs. So that's a good thing however the problem is finding one to add to your pc.

Perhaps it's a good time to buy full wax boxes from 1977-1980. These range anywhere from $300-500 and it seems that peolpe are always interested in busting old boxes for the pop report or just the thrill of opening something from 30 plus years ago. So that may be a good idea, just have to make sure its from a legitimate souce like BBCE.

James
theWaxman

brianwintersfan · December 29, 2009 4:13PM

<< Hi Waxman, welcome to the looney bin. If you ever have trouble finding one of your recent posts, click on "Today" in the top right part of the page. Once that page loads, you should find a list of your most current posts.

The teasing is in good fun...so please don't overreact like some of the folks around here (sportscardtheory, etc.) when people tease. It's a generally good group of guys around here. >>

Easy for you to say, you pink nightmare!

jmoran19 · December 30, 2009 12:15AM

My version of heaven would be Fritsch's warehouse staffed by Tracy Lords and the Lynn girls (Ginger and Amber)

lsutigers1973 · December 30, 2009 12:23AM

<< My version of heaven would be Fritsch's warehouse staffed by Tracy Lords and the Lynn girls (Ginger and Amber) >>

I'm going with you. I'll just watch. I promise.

gumbyfan · December 30, 2009 1:10AM

<< My version of heaven would be Fritsch's warehouse staffed by Tracy Lords and the Lynn girls (Ginger and Amber)

>>

Maybe they'd be able to find something. I'm not the only one who has ordered stuff from them only to find out they can't find it in their warehouse.

RonBurgundy · December 30, 2009 1:34AM

I would disagree partially that significant price drops would occur with pre-72 unopened material in particular if it were "found" and released. Should that occur, a large majority of the find is going to be purchased and opened. And over time, more of it will be opened, slowly decreasing the availability to pre-find levels or perhaps below (with people also opening the same material that was already found). Now, there may be temporary price drops due to a supply increase, but in my opinion that's just a good time to buy if you're into buying and holding. I'll cheer the day some of this stuff is released because it'll be a chance for me to buy it and store it while all you cats are opening it.

Where the price drops are really going to occur are with the value of single cards when the pops are driven into the stratosphere.

jmoran19 · December 30, 2009 2:33AM

<< 

<< My version of heaven would be Fritsch's warehouse staffed by Tracy Lords and the Lynn girls (Ginger and Amber) >>

I'm going with you. I'll just watch. I promise. >>

Your welcome to stay as long as our swords don't cross

lsutigers1973 · December 30, 2009 2:34AM

Don't cross the streams

Ripken · December 30, 2009 7:40AM

If Fritsch Cards had large quantities of '60s unopened left, would we not see them in their catalog? I still see some cellos from 68-up priced pretty high, but nothing before then.

Griffins · December 30, 2009 6:15PM

When I posted about supply going back to '59, I was referring to vending, not wax. I have no knowledge of Fritsch's wax inventory other than what they have in the catalog and what they consigned to Mastro a few years back. I've ordered from them once and doubt I would ever order from them again.

4for4 · September 10, 2023 9:39AM

Great thread.
How is the vintage wax market now in this environment ?

Are people still opening vintage wax now ? Fun, but very costly, no ?

daltex · September 10, 2023 6:30PM

Another site I frequent closes replies two years after the last comment.

mark_dak · September 10, 2023 8:22PM

@daltex said:
Another site I frequent closes replies two years after the last comment.

Obviously not this one. I'm not a "unopened Pack guy" but I was enjoying the thread until I hit your comment. Thanks for nothing!

Mark

4for4 · September 11, 2023 12:23AM

@mark_dak said:

@daltex said:
Another site I frequent closes replies two years after the last comment.

Obviously not this one. I'm not a "unopened Pack guy" but I was enjoying the thread until I hit your comment. Thanks for nothing!

Mark

Exactly. It’s good to learn the history of the hobby here.
I’m glad these threads are available.

4for4 · September 11, 2023 2:28AM

@daltex said:
Another site I frequent closes replies two years after the last comment.

Another alt. Wow. How embarrassing.
On the ignore list you go.
Nothing personal Steve.
You can make fun of and put down anyone you like. You’re a 55 year old man who mocks athletes, mocks forum members who make spelling mistakes, and obsessively follows them with multiple alts to mock them even further. I just don’t live that way. All the best.

JolleyWrencher · September 11, 2023 5:18AM

Check out uffdahs ripping journey thread. About the only person I've seen ripping and telling about it.

Is there a known sequence for those years? If so then I expect people owning/buying will know the cards inside and dump them only if a buyer will pay a premium hoping for a card the seller knows isn't in it.

balco758 · September 11, 2023 8:18AM

My ripping haiku

Used to rip a lot
ROI abysmal
I no longer rip

azvike · September 11, 2023 8:48AM

Love it...(but "ROI Abysmal" is 6, not 7)

"ROI is abysmal" (fixed)

West22 · September 11, 2023 4:47PM

It’s interesting seeing this thread because up until around 2012, 1980-‘85 wax could be found and ripped fairly reasonably. Now, the cutoff for me in terms of stuff you can still rip at a reasonable price is 1985. Most stuff 1986 and up, the market is pretty oversupplied and soft and a box can be bought and ripped for $100 or less. Pre-1986 on down is a strong market IMO due to favorable supply/demand economics. Yes prices are down vs recent highs but not too bad all things considered.

I see this market dynamic - resilient vintage/weak junk era - playing out for the next year or two and then the more modern issues that combine favorable factors of strong demand, limited supply, key RCs, and best brand recognition will start to appreciate and eventually a few winners will start to distance themselves from the weaker, overproduced issues. Currently placing bets myself. Pretty much everything junk wax era is a buyers market at the moment. A lot of people are still trying to unload inflated stuff they bought in ‘21. It’s crazy how many items on eBay have BINs at 200% fair market value. I think we are not far from seeing capitulation and forced selling if unemployment creeps up. But for the most part it’s a decent time to check a few things off your want list. You’d be surprised at what how often you can get a “best offers” accepted on stale listings these days.

Another thing I was thinking about recently - it was an interesting parallel that current unopened price ranges on 1980-85 issues the last few years (roughly $300-$2500) have roughly matched up with what you used to be able to buy of 1974-1979 Topps in 2009 when this thread started. I actually see it more likely that in the coming years, the trend reverses and the market skips over the garbage era of ‘86-‘92 (with select exceptions) and favors the ‘93-‘01 issues for investing purposes. I think this will be due to oversupply from the early junk era and the relative scarcity of later issues. You could 10X the number of YouTube rippers and still not put a dent in the supply of 1987 Topps. Just my opinion.

chaz43 · September 12, 2023 8:09AM

@West22 said:
It’s interesting seeing this thread because up until around 2012, 1980-‘85 wax could be found and ripped fairly reasonably. Now, the cutoff for me in terms of stuff you can still rip at a reasonable price is 1985. Most stuff 1986 and up, the market is pretty oversupplied and soft and a box can be bought and ripped for $100 or less. Pre-1986 on down is a strong market IMO due to favorable supply/demand economics. Yes prices are down vs recent highs but not too bad all things considered.

I see this market dynamic - resilient vintage/weak junk era - playing out for the next year or two and then the more modern issues that combine favorable factors of strong demand, limited supply, key RCs, and best brand recognition will start to appreciate and eventually a few winners will start to distance themselves from the weaker, overproduced issues. Currently placing bets myself. Pretty much everything junk wax era is a buyers market at the moment. A lot of people are still trying to unload inflated stuff they bought in ‘21. It’s crazy how many items on eBay have BINs at 200% fair market value. I think we are not far from seeing capitulation and forced selling if unemployment creeps up. But for the most part it’s a decent time to check a few things off your want list. You’d be surprised at what how often you can get a “best offers” accepted on stale listings these days.

Another thing I was thinking about recently - it was an interesting parallel that current unopened price ranges on 1980-85 issues the last few years ($400-$3000) have roughly matched up with what you used to be able to buy of 1976-1980 Topps in 2009 when this thread started. I actually see it more likely that in the coming years, the trend reverses and the market skips over the garbage era of ‘86-‘92 (with select exceptions) and favors the ‘93-‘01 issues for investing purposes. I think this will be due to oversupply from the early junk era and the relative scarcity of later issues. You could 10X the number of YouTube rippers and still not put a dent in the supply of 1987 Topps. Just my opinion.

You are forgetting about new generations of collectors coming in and looking for vintage "junk" wax.... it won't be junk anymore.... I remember at the card shows back in 78' they said" don't touch 78' Topps baseball wax it's all overproduced garbage....10 bucks a box"......yeah right....

chaz

lahmejoon · September 12, 2023 12:25PM

@jmoran19 said:
My version of heaven would be Fritsch's warehouse staffed by Tracy Lords and the Lynn girls (Ginger and Amber)

nendee · September 12, 2023 11:38PM

I remember Fritsch selling 75 cellos for $100 …. I bought a few but I miss those lowest priced days!

West22 · September 13, 2023 6:37AM

@nendee said:
I remember Fritsch selling 75 cellos for $100 …. I bought a few but I miss those lowest priced days!

I think we are in this situation now with prices on 1980 Topps, other early 80’s issues, certain sealed Tiffany issues, 87 OPC, 90 OPC, and select early/mid 90’s low production stuff. For unopened, supply will all dry up someday. For the last 20 months or so we have been in a distribution phase of the market cycle. These are bargain prices and they might get better with a capitulation/selloff phase in the next 8-12 months if there are job losses.

I would buy with a long time horizon, and let the govt do the rest of the work for me by devaluing the currency during the next “crisis”.

1954 · September 13, 2023 12:28PM

@Ripken said:
If Fritsch Cards had large quantities of '60s unopened left, would we not see them in their catalog? I still see some cellos from 68-up priced pretty high, but nothing before then.

While Fritsch has a ton of unopened material still, the amount has dwindled considerably. If you check (compare) the catalogs that he put out back 10 years ago to the last one he published, you will find that he did not have many of the years in wax or in rack packs. Some years all he had was vending and some years all he had was cello. Not many people can really confirm what he has left, but it is quite obvious what he does have (and does not have) based on what he gives Collect Auctions for consignments. My opinion is he has very little pre-1971 product. I have seen vending from 1970 FB series 1, 1971 Topps Baseball series 1/2/3/5 and some vending from 1969 BB last series but that is it. I am not saying he does not have anything, but nothing to move the needle to be concerned about. If memory serves me correctly, he had a ton of 1975 cello and 1975 mini but hardly had any 1975 Topps wax.

1954 · September 13, 2023 12:40PM

The OP asked if we thought the value of unopened from the 1950s-70s was a good investment? I would say I think it is the best investment long term.

West22 · September 13, 2023 3:22PM

@1954 said:

@Ripken said:
If Fritsch Cards had large quantities of '60s unopened left, would we not see them in their catalog? I still see some cellos from 68-up priced pretty high, but nothing before then.

While Fritsch has a ton of unopened material still, the amount has dwindled considerably. If you check (compare) the catalogs that he put out back 10 years ago to the last one he published, you will find that he did not have many of the years in wax or in rack packs. Some years all he had was vending and some years all he had was cello. Not many people can really confirm what he has left, but it is quite obvious what he does have (and does not have) based on what he gives Collect Auctions for consignments. My opinion is he has very little pre-1971 product. I have seen vending from 1970 FB series 1, 1971 Topps Baseball series 1/2/3/5 and some vending from 1969 BB last series but that is it. I am not saying he does not have anything, but nothing to move the needle to be concerned about. If memory serves me correctly, he had a ton of 1975 cello and 1975 mini but hardly had any 1975 Topps wax.

Can’t tell from your reply whether you are aware, but the post you replied to was from 2009.

Vintage Wax Investment Potential

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