A dive into the toned Morgan market (via Legend Auction 7/27/23 vs prior sales at GC, etc)
U1chicago
Posts: 5,705 ✭✭✭✭✭
Tonight was one of Legend's Regency auctions (the “boutique” sales they hold about once every two months) and there were plenty of Morgans (as usual). What I found interesting is that many of these were very familiar. I often have seen a few Morgans that I have previously bid on pop up but tonight there were many. So I figured it would be interesting to compare the results.
The first is a nice semi-pl 1880-S. This coin I first saw on Instagram in an NGC MS 64 star holder. It was cracked out and sent to PCGS, where it also got an MS 64. Someone later upgraded it to an MS 65 and sent to Great Collections (April 2020), where it brought 1,293.75 (when including the buyer's fee). Tonight at Legend it ended at 1,204.38 (when including the buyer's fee). Given that the market was still queasy in early 2020 (before taking off in the following months of that year), this isn't a great result.
GC (April 2020): 1,293.75
Legend: 1,204.38
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/816763/1880-S-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-65-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/159263150/-1-1880-s-pcgs-ms65
Next up is one of the weaker results of the night. This 1880-S used to reside in an NGC MS 66 star holder. It brought an impressive $2,563.88 at GC in 2021. The coin was crossed to PCGS, where it down graded to MS 65+ but added a nice True View and what many consider a more marketable holder. That was not enough as the coin went for just $1,292.50. I considered the price at GC optimistic back in 2021 but I did not expect the coin to lose over $1k in what is still a strong market.
GC (2021): 2,563.88
Legend: 1,292.50
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1046149/1880-S-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-NGC-MS-66-226-152-133-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/159263151/-1-1880-s-pcgs-ms65-
Sticking with the early San Francisco dates, this 1881-S has had multiple auction trips. The first one I’m aware of was a July 2017 GC sale at $578.60-quite reasonable even though prices were lower back then. And that fact was proven true as it sold at Legend a few months later (October 2017) for $1,116.25. We next see it making a trip back to Legend in May 2019, where it brought less: $851.88 (possibly a combo of not being as fresh and just not as many people following it). Tonight it squeezed out a gain above any prior sale with a final hammer of $1,351.25. This result seemed about right for the market on a nice coin.
GC (July 2017): 578.60
Legend (Oct 2017): 1,116.25
Legend (May 2019): 851.88
Legend: 1,351.25
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/473725/1881-S-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-65-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/34785084/-1-1881-s-pcgs-ms65
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/50797688/-1-1881-s-pcgs-ms65
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/159263155/-1-1881-s-pcgs-ms65
Now something a little different-an 1885 rattler with what I would call fairly mild toning. I was surprised when it reached $535.50 at GC in 2021 since the color did not look special and it wasn’t a rare holder. Then I saw that the coin received a gold CAC! The combination of rattler and gold sticker makes people go wild and I figured the coin would bring something crazy. It did not meet expectations. The coin did better than before but not by much, ending at $793.13. That is strong given the coin but not as impressive given that Gold CAC MS 65 1938-D Buffalo Nickels with no color in rattlers bring close to $300. Maybe the market is beginning to slightly cool off in terms of certain holder plus sticker premiums or this was just one coin that wasn’t placed in the best setting to maximize the return.
GC (2021): 535.50
Legend: 793.13
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/835163/1885-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-63-OGH-1st-Gen-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/160285099/-1-1885-pcgs-ms63-cac-gold
Here we have another rattler. The textile is a plus but the coin seemed a bit dark to me. It sold in GC before the 2020 price bump and was lacking a CAC sticker at the time.
GC (Oct 2019): 766.86
Legend: 1,233.75
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/764947/1887-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-64-OGH-1st-Gen-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/160285110/-1-1887-pcgs-ms64-cac
We finally reach a coin that I was seriously following. The 1889 date is less common for color and this was among the better examples I have run across. Being a two sided toner is another plus but the break on the obverse hurts a little. I was surprised that the Legend result was lower than GC.
GC (Jan 2020): 1,881.00
Legend: 1,762.50
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/795686/1889-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-64-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/160285114/-1-1889-pcgs-ms64--cac
The 1890 was another coin I was following and again a less common date for nice toning. The lower grade (only an MS 62) likely limited the upper bound of this one. I felt that the GC result was extremely strong and expected the lower price at Legend (it still outperformed my estimate).
GC (Jul 2021): 2,331.00
Legend: 1,586.25
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1015526/1890-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-62-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/160285116/-1-1890-pcgs-ms62
The 1891 is an old friend. This is the only coin in the auction that I used to own. I was the winning bidder at Stacks back in 2020 at the $600 price. I later sold it on Instagram for $800. While I liked the coin and knew it was not an easy date for color, I felt I had better examples among my more common dates. I don’t plan to do a full date set either but I have contemplated doing a more narrow range like 1878 to 1891. So I was bidding but had set my limit at the $800 I had sold the coin for previously. Someone else liked it more or needed that date for their date set as the final bid was well over my expectation (and Legend’s estimate).
Stacks (Aug 2020): 600
Legend: 1,586.25
https://www.pcgs.com/cert/81704272
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/160285117/-1-1891-pcgs-ms63
A somewhat controversial example, this 1904 features what looks like a big “X” carved into the left field. When I saw it at GC, that turned me off. I was surprised how high it went back then. The coin was later sent in to add a VAM attribution and a TrueView image. It brought around the same amount at Legend even with all of that.
GC (May 2020): 929.25
Legend: 998.75
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/816075/1904-O-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-63-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/160285128/-1-1904-o-vam-4b--fishhook--pcgs-ms63
Our biggest winner of the night, this pedigreed 1879-S really surprised me. It has nice color and added a plus since the last sale. Still there are more impressive examples of this date and I’m not sure what led to the bidding war tonight.
Legend (Oct 2020): 1,938.75
Legend: 6,168.75
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/73043999/-1-1879-s-pcgs-ms66-cac
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/161312601/-1-1879-s-pcgs-ms66---cac
Comments
All of the coins mentioned above are pictured in order here (some are GC photos while others are from Legend):
That 1891 is BEAUTIFUL!
That’s the one I used to own. I’m happy to see it went for more than I sold it (I’m not fully sure but I think it was the person that bought it from me that sent it to Legend).
Thanks for all the infomation and all the work you put in to show us
Just could be the summer time blues...........
Mike
My Indians
Danco Set
The first two are interesting because of a conversation on another thread about the star actually carrying some market cachet. We'll never know, but maybe crossing it was a mistake.
Summer tends to be slower in general and that could have played a role in some of the lower results. Others might have just been over bid the first time around as a few eager bidders really wanted the coin (and with the previous winner now selling, there was less competition).
The star does carry plenty of value and these examples can be used to point in its favor. I have seen it go both ways though. There is still a perception by a big enough group of people that PCGS is better and they will bid more for those coins. Many of the higher end toned Morgan sets are also composed of PCGS slabbed coins.
I don't actively collect toners, but thanks for a very interesting thread.
I was following some of those coins and have seen a few of them in person like the blue 1880-S. The one I was paying attention to was the 1886 in the Redfield holder graded by NGC as a 63*. I've never seen it in hand but the images I've seen of that coin have been all over the place, including some where I suspect the saturation knobs were turned up.
While many of the coins in the auction were attractive, it seems like the true monsters and the ones just below that designation are in strong hands and rarely show up for sale.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
Very detailed and interesting thread. Thanks for the work you put in!👍
That 79s price is a shocker.
Maybe a couple people really wanted that pedigree. Wow.
That 1886 was also a former GC coin. It sold for a reasonable 1,181.25 back in May 2022. I later saw it on eBay and IG from several people at what seemed like very optimistic prices but it did sell at least once if not more times. The Legend result was lower than what I saw being asked for it but still seemed relatively in line with the market (2,400 plus fees…although it now shows as “passed” so it didn’t meet the reserve).
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1165319/1886-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-MS-65-Paramount-Red-Holder-Toned
It seems like it-although that isn’t a particularly rare pedigree nor is it as desirable as Battle Creek, Sunnywood/Simpson, or Aurora Borealis.
I wonder if we will see any of these up for sale again in the near future?
My guess is that the 1880-S PCGS MS 65+ that went from GC (2021): 2,563.88 to Legend: 1,292.50 will show up and resell for a nice profit.
There was a very similar one to the 1891 a couple weeks ago that imo even rivaled that one... Such a beauty. All I had to do was hit bid one more time but I hesitated. 😭 That 91 is a stunner for sure.
Interesting data!
https://www.the4thcoin.com
https://www.ebay.com/str/thefourthcoin
It’s interesting that in a good number of cases, GC is beating Legend by a good margin. This is not the result I would have expected.
Do you have a link to the similar one? Was it also an 1891 or a different date?
Toned Morgans have done very well at GC the last several years. It’s rare to find a bargain and it’s more common to see some moon money prices.
Love the toning on the 1891, the most special coin in that group IMHO.
Almost all the rest are very common dates where better toned examples can be found and the best examples of those dates are probably in strong hands.
"Bongo hurtles along the rain soaked highway of life on underinflated bald retread tires."
~Wayne
The 1890 is another date that isn't too common with color but the 62 grade generally doesn't help when it comes to big premiums.
Interestingly enough when I offered that 1891 for sale, there weren't any bites at the $900 level. I eventually settled on $800 with the only person that showed any interest in the coin.
@U1chicago The MS62 grade is always a tough one for Morgans but the toning on that one makes the grade a bit more palatable.
"Bongo hurtles along the rain soaked highway of life on underinflated bald retread tires."
~Wayne
Moral of the story: it's darn hard to buy coins to flip at a profit. This no matter where the venues are.
It's not quite as similar as what I was thinking once I compared them side by side but they are more similar obverse than reverse. It was an 85.
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/161620142/-1-1885-pcgs-ms65-cac
https://www.the4thcoin.com
https://www.ebay.com/str/thefourthcoin
I see the similarities and that is a nice coin too.
At least one of those should have been slapped with QC imho.
Interesting to see a possible weakening of the toned Morgan market after all these years of strong results.
Professional Numismatist. "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Which one, the 1880-S MS 65+ (that used to be an NGC 66 star)?
Has GC upped their picture quality?
I have noticed improvement
Type Collector of U.S. Pre-33 Gold https://instagram.com/deplorable_dan Successful transactions with- @drfish, @Cladiator, @johnny010, @Pedzola, @PerryHall, @2windy2fish, @Ike1964, @JohnThePainter, @rpmsrpms, @REALGATOR
Doesn't surprise me one bit. People are finding out the hard way which are the better auction houses to deal with.
GC is leading the way to a better auction experience!
Mike
My Indians
Danco Set
I always thought their pictures were good-they aren't TrueView level but I'm not looking for TrueViews. I'd prefer as close to an in hand look as possible and something that I won't be disappointed with because it looked better in the photo (which has happened to me with TrueViews but not with GC photos).
IMO they weren't always good. The ones posted in this thread are better than what they used to be. You want top dollar for toners you need good pics. If I was to get a coin that didn't much look like the pics, I'd be remembering that the next time I bid.
Momma always told me that if I had nothing nice to say, don't say anything, so I probably said too much already. But maybe...
Professional Numismatist. "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
I really cant understand why the first 2 were cracked out of star holders. At least one actually downgraded and lost the star?!? Wild.
It’s always a risk but often a PCGS slabbed toner sells better than an NGC one even with a star. There are more people that want PCGS only for their toners as opposed to collecting NGC or both. A down grade is trickier but I’ve seen PCGS downgrades sell for more than NGC (I don’t agree with the thinking but that’s been my experience with the market).
Nice toners really like the 1889 MS64.
Thanks for the report. You put a lot of effort into the write up and it is appreciated. Not a Morgan collector but found it interesting how often the same coin goes to auction in just a few years. The Auction houses are really making out well.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 35 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
The number of times some coins go to auctions mirrors the number of times some coins are regraded. Just like the grading companies appreciating the extra business, so do the auction companies.
It is interesting to see that a quick reappearance doesn’t generally lead to lower prices. One would expect that selling again quickly would make the coin less fresh and eliminate the previous top bidder. However, in a rising market or with more unique toners, you can actually gain more bidders.