Where do the TPG get their coin values that they publish on their websites?

csdot · August 7, 2021 9:03AM

Where do the TPG services get the coin values they publish on their websites? For example, when I look up a coin by certification number on the host's site they list a price and price history for the coin in that date, mint mark and grade. The price shown certainly isn't greysheet, or even a representation of current action results (as they list those too if you dig into the data). Is it Redbook pricing? Best I can tell these prices are reflections of the prices people are listing similar coins for (but not necessarily receiving) on Ebay, but that may be a chicken and the egg scenario as sellers may be looking to the TPG services websites to determine what they should list as their asking price on Ebay.

Any insight on where the TPG services get the coin values they publish on their websites? Thanks.

winesteven · August 7, 2021 2:03PM

First, the prices shown in the PCGS and NGC Price Guides are estimates of retail values. I’m aware that PCGS has started many months ago updating their prices more frequently as actual retail prices have recently been increasing. They’ve been doing a great job!

My understanding is they use a combination of factors. I believe PCGS (and possibly NGC) rely heavily on auction sales data, including any buyers premium.

Perhaps our moderator can see if Mark Ferguson, the recent super-competent person hired to head the PCGS Price Guide department, can make a post to the forum with any non-proprietary information specifically answering your question. I think many in our hobby would love to read some insights.

Steve

cameonut2011 · August 7, 2021 2:18PM

@csdot said:
Where do the TPG services get the coin values they publish on their websites? For example, when I look up a coin by certification number on the host's site they list a price and price history for the coin in that date, mint mark and grade. The price shown certainly isn't greysheet, or even a representation of current action results (as they list those too if you dig into the data). Is it Redbook pricing? Best I can tell these prices are reflections of the prices people are listing similar coins for (but not necessarily receiving) on Ebay, but that may be a chicken and the egg scenario as sellers may be looking to the TPG services websites to determine what they should list as their asking price on Ebay.

Any insight on where the TPG services get the coin values they publish on their websites? Thanks.

Coin dealers’ fantasies/dreams.

jmlanzaf · August 7, 2021 2:20PM

@csdot said:
Where do the TPG services get the coin values they publish on their websites? For example, when I look up a coin by certification number on the host's site they list a price and price history for the coin in that date, mint mark and grade. The price shown certainly isn't greysheet, or even a representation of current action results (as they list those too if you dig into the data). Is it Redbook pricing? Best I can tell these prices are reflections of the prices people are listing similar coins for (but not necessarily receiving) on Ebay, but that may be a chicken and the egg scenario as sellers may be looking to the TPG services websites to determine what they should list as their asking price on Ebay.

Any insight on where the TPG services get the coin values they publish on their websites? Thanks.

Coin dealers’ fantasies/dreams.

The dated prices represent auction results.

Determining guide values for anything but widgets is tricky. There are always a range of results that include toners as well as spotted coins.

BearlyHere · August 7, 2021 2:20PM

I use the NGC and PCGS guides as well as Coin World. Between the 3 you can get a decent idea on prices.

TurtleCat · August 7, 2021 2:26PM

@cameonut2011 said:

@csdot said:
Where do the TPG services get the coin values they publish on their websites? For example, when I look up a coin by certification number on the host's site they list a price and price history for the coin in that date, mint mark and grade. The price shown certainly isn't greysheet, or even a representation of current action results (as they list those too if you dig into the data). Is it Redbook pricing? Best I can tell these prices are reflections of the prices people are listing similar coins for (but not necessarily receiving) on Ebay, but that may be a chicken and the egg scenario as sellers may be looking to the TPG services websites to determine what they should list as their asking price on Ebay.

Any insight on where the TPG services get the coin values they publish on their websites? Thanks.

Coin dealers’ fantasies/dreams.

In the world of numismatic gold, the prices I am seeing for quality pieces is above the PCGS guide. They just haven’t kept up with the current market.

cameonut2011 · August 7, 2021 3:11PM

Fair enough but historically it has been high and sometimes absurdly high. I can agree with outdated. It just seems like it took a decade to adjust for the long downturn that began in 2008 and lasted for 10+ years. I’m glad the market is moving in the other direction again.

koynekwest · August 7, 2021 4:06PM

I can cite one example that was sold this past September in a Heritage auction. A 1918-S 8/7 MS64+ FH Standing Liberty quarter, tied for the finest known, was sold for $336,000. It took a few months but PCGS updated the price guide for a coin in this grade from $200,000 to the current value of $350,000 so auctions are one major resource for this information. However, an identically graded and designated NGC example ended up going for $72,000 this past June.

bearcave · August 7, 2021 4:46PM

@koynekwest said:
I can cite one example that was sold this past September in a Heritage auction. A 1918-S 8/7 MS64+ FH Standing Liberty quarter, tied for the finest known, was sold for $336,000. It took a few months but PCGS updated the price guide for a coin in this grade from $200,000 to the current value of $350,000 so auctions are one major resource for this information. However, an identically graded and designated NGC example ended up going for $72,000 this past June.

Was the first auction in a pcgs slab?

koynekwest · August 7, 2021 5:06PM

The only other identically graded FH I could find was in June, 2014 that went for $188,000, also in a PCGS slab.

bearcave · August 7, 2021 5:11PM

@koynekwest said:
The only other identically graded FH I could find was in June, 2014 that went for $188,000, also in a PCGS slab.

I can see where they got the amount from.

koynekwest · August 7, 2021 5:15PM

This was sold by Heritage. Other auction houses may have additional records. But this one would certainly explain the previous $200k value.

keyman64 · August 7, 2021 5:37PM

In my area of expertise, many price guides get their prices from all the wrong places. In their defense though, they do not have the experts for each niche and it seems that certain price guides do not have access to Great Collections’ auction records which really negatively impacts the accuracy of price guides. For each niche, it really takes a lot of time to put accurate data together. Time is frequently not on their side.

koynekwest · August 7, 2021 5:38PM

That $200k value does correlate with the 06-2014 sale.

winesteven · August 7, 2021 6:12PM

@keyman64 said:
In my area of expertise, many price guides get their prices from all the wrong places…..and it seems that certain price guides do not have access to Great Collections’ auction records which really negatively impacts the accuracy of price guides.

Gee, I’d think recent auction data from Heritage, StacksBowers, Legends, DLRC and others would be a pretty realistic way to determine a sense of what coins are selling for in the real world?
Ian Russell of Great Collections has made a business decision to restrict the use of GC auction price data from certain types of business entities. His rationale for that decision (which makes sense to me) is to have potential buyers of coins, whether collectors or dealers, to have to go to the GC website to obtain their past auction sales data. When buyers do that to get that data, coins matching the search that are currently up for auction are shown in the right hand column. Their goal is then to have those buyers consider bidding on those current listings on GC. Makes sense to me!

Steve

keyman64 · August 7, 2021 6:34PM

@winesteven said:

@keyman64 said:
In my area of expertise, many price guides get their prices from all the wrong places…..and it seems that certain price guides do not have access to Great Collections’ auction records which really negatively impacts the accuracy of price guides.

Gee, I’d think recent auction data from Heritage, StacksBowers, Legends, DLRC and others would be a pretty realistic way to determine a sense of what coins are selling for in the real world?

Ian Russell of Great Collections has made a business decision to restrict the use of GC auction price data from certain types of business entities. His rationale for that decision (which makes sense to me) is to have potential buyers of coins, whether collectors or dealers, to have to go to the GC website to obtain their past auction sales data. When buyers do that to get that data, coins matching the search currently up for auction are shown in the right hand column. The goal is then to have those buyers consider bidding on those current listings on GC. Makes sense to me!

Steve

In my niche (see my signature), way more coins have sold on GC than anywhere else. Didn’t GC recently sell their one millionth coin?! eBay also has quite a few. When you don’t include these areas, your price guide of hunches falls on it’s face. In 2014/2015 I sold all of my top pops and near top pops on Great Collections. More fine examples have sold since. None of this data is reflected in price guides. Unless you are a specialist, know the market, are in the market, know most of the demand/buyers, know who is actively seeking what or who needs what then you are clueless. Putting together a price guide while less-than-informed is not advised. You can’t do it while ignoring the majority of sales.

jmlanzaf · August 7, 2021 8:03PM

@keyman64 said:

@winesteven said:

@keyman64 said:
In my area of expertise, many price guides get their prices from all the wrong places…..and it seems that certain price guides do not have access to Great Collections’ auction records which really negatively impacts the accuracy of price guides.

Gee, I’d think recent auction data from Heritage, StacksBowers, Legends, DLRC and others would be a pretty realistic way to determine a sense of what coins are selling for in the real world?

Ian Russell of Great Collections has made a business decision to restrict the use of GC auction price data from certain types of business entities. His rationale for that decision (which makes sense to me) is to have potential buyers of coins, whether collectors or dealers, to have to go to the GC website to obtain their past auction sales data. When buyers do that to get that data, coins matching the search currently up for auction are shown in the right hand column. The goal is then to have those buyers consider bidding on those current listings on GC. Makes sense to me!

Steve

In my niche (see my signature), way more coins have sold on GC than anywhere else. Didn’t GC recently sell their one millionth coin?! eBay also has quite a few. When you don’t include these areas, your price guide of hunches falls on it’s face. In 2014/2015 I sold all of my top pops and near top pops on Great Collections. More fine examples have sold since. None of this data is reflected in price guides. Unless you are a specialist, know the market, are in the market, know most of the demand/buyers, know who is actively seeking what or who needs what then you are clueless. Putting together a price guide while less-than-informed is not advised. You can’t do it while ignoring the majority of sales.

They aren't ignoring it. They are being denied access to the data.

keyman64 · August 7, 2021 8:22PM

@jmlanzaf said:

@keyman64 said:

@winesteven said:

@keyman64 said:
In my area of expertise, many price guides get their prices from all the wrong places…..and it seems that certain price guides do not have access to Great Collections’ auction records which really negatively impacts the accuracy of price guides.

Gee, I’d think recent auction data from Heritage, StacksBowers, Legends, DLRC and others would be a pretty realistic way to determine a sense of what coins are selling for in the real world?

Ian Russell of Great Collections has made a business decision to restrict the use of GC auction price data from certain types of business entities. His rationale for that decision (which makes sense to me) is to have potential buyers of coins, whether collectors or dealers, to have to go to the GC website to obtain their past auction sales data. When buyers do that to get that data, coins matching the search currently up for auction are shown in the right hand column. The goal is then to have those buyers consider bidding on those current listings on GC. Makes sense to me!

Steve

In my niche (see my signature), way more coins have sold on GC than anywhere else. Didn’t GC recently sell their one millionth coin?! eBay also has quite a few. When you don’t include these areas, your price guide of hunches falls on it’s face. In 2014/2015 I sold all of my top pops and near top pops on Great Collections. More fine examples have sold since. None of this data is reflected in price guides. Unless you are a specialist, know the market, are in the market, know most of the demand/buyers, know who is actively seeking what or who needs what then you are clueless. Putting together a price guide while less-than-informed is not advised. You can’t do it while ignoring the majority of sales.

They aren't ignoring it. They are being denied access to the data.

Not true. They might be denied AUTOMATED/API access but they are NOT denied access. I have access! They are ignoring reality by not investing the time to produce accurate information. For regular series data that trade frequently enough through other platforms, the gathering of automated data works fine. But for specialty areas, sometimes you have to put in the time to get the data.

Cougar1978 · August 8, 2021 7:48AM

I input the TPG price into Spreadsheet plus column for cost plus in addition to a third column for my wildcard if necessary then @if function for highest goes to my sell price column. As far as auctions in many instances simply wholesale blow out so
these not a biggie for me in pricing. Many times auctions what somebody gave an item away for. Example - One Pmg 65 classic (before 1960) world note pop of 1/0 picked up from online auc house for $65, KRS CV for raw unc $180. I priced it at $495.

YQQ · August 8, 2021 8:38AM

Auction house values usually include juice.
But, big BUT: if two idiots are bidding in an auction on one "must have " coin...
Sometimes they get carried away. ( especially if they have more $$$$ than brains).
Is that result then being used as a guideline for pricing?
Personally, I would use this formula which favors the majority of coins sold:
do not count 2nd highest paid in 3 months
do not count 2nd **lowest paid in 3 months
add all the others in between total paid in 3 months
divided by the total number( excluding the highest and lowest) of coins sold.
**This is a much fairer assessment of a retail price.

jmlanzaf · August 8, 2021 9:20AM

@keyman64 said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@keyman64 said:

@winesteven said:

@keyman64 said:
In my area of expertise, many price guides get their prices from all the wrong places…..and it seems that certain price guides do not have access to Great Collections’ auction records which really negatively impacts the accuracy of price guides.

Gee, I’d think recent auction data from Heritage, StacksBowers, Legends, DLRC and others would be a pretty realistic way to determine a sense of what coins are selling for in the real world?

Ian Russell of Great Collections has made a business decision to restrict the use of GC auction price data from certain types of business entities. His rationale for that decision (which makes sense to me) is to have potential buyers of coins, whether collectors or dealers, to have to go to the GC website to obtain their past auction sales data. When buyers do that to get that data, coins matching the search currently up for auction are shown in the right hand column. The goal is then to have those buyers consider bidding on those current listings on GC. Makes sense to me!

Steve

In my niche (see my signature), way more coins have sold on GC than anywhere else. Didn’t GC recently sell their one millionth coin?! eBay also has quite a few. When you don’t include these areas, your price guide of hunches falls on it’s face. In 2014/2015 I sold all of my top pops and near top pops on Great Collections. More fine examples have sold since. None of this data is reflected in price guides. Unless you are a specialist, know the market, are in the market, know most of the demand/buyers, know who is actively seeking what or who needs what then you are clueless. Putting together a price guide while less-than-informed is not advised. You can’t do it while ignoring the majority of sales.

They aren't ignoring it. They are being denied access to the data.

Not true. They might be denied AUTOMATED/API access but they are NOT denied access. I have access! They are ignoring reality by not investing the time to produce accurate information. For regular series data that trade frequently enough through other platforms, the gathering of automated data works fine. But for specialty areas, sometimes you have to put in the time to get the data.

You are looking up single coins or series, not every coin in every series.

I don't know about GC, but ebay considers their price data to be their intellectual property. You can't use it commercially.

keyman64 · August 8, 2021 10:31AM

@jmlanzaf said:

@keyman64 said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@keyman64 said:

@winesteven said:

@keyman64 said:
In my area of expertise, many price guides get their prices from all the wrong places…..and it seems that certain price guides do not have access to Great Collections’ auction records which really negatively impacts the accuracy of price guides.

Gee, I’d think recent auction data from Heritage, StacksBowers, Legends, DLRC and others would be a pretty realistic way to determine a sense of what coins are selling for in the real world?

Ian Russell of Great Collections has made a business decision to restrict the use of GC auction price data from certain types of business entities. His rationale for that decision (which makes sense to me) is to have potential buyers of coins, whether collectors or dealers, to have to go to the GC website to obtain their past auction sales data. When buyers do that to get that data, coins matching the search currently up for auction are shown in the right hand column. The goal is then to have those buyers consider bidding on those current listings on GC. Makes sense to me!

Steve

In my niche (see my signature), way more coins have sold on GC than anywhere else. Didn’t GC recently sell their one millionth coin?! eBay also has quite a few. When you don’t include these areas, your price guide of hunches falls on it’s face. In 2014/2015 I sold all of my top pops and near top pops on Great Collections. More fine examples have sold since. None of this data is reflected in price guides. Unless you are a specialist, know the market, are in the market, know most of the demand/buyers, know who is actively seeking what or who needs what then you are clueless. Putting together a price guide while less-than-informed is not advised. You can’t do it while ignoring the majority of sales.

They aren't ignoring it. They are being denied access to the data.

Not true. They might be denied AUTOMATED/API access but they are NOT denied access. I have access! They are ignoring reality by not investing the time to produce accurate information. For regular series data that trade frequently enough through other platforms, the gathering of automated data works fine. But for specialty areas, sometimes you have to put in the time to get the data.

You are looking up single coins or series, not every coin in every series.

I don't know about GC, but ebay considers their price data to be their intellectual property. You can't use it commercially.

You can use the data, in combination with other data, to formulate what you believe to be an accurate price guide value. For niche series or specialties, human time must be used if you are going to be accurate in putting together a price guide value. If a coin sells for something in 65 and a coin sells for something in 67, all at one place then by looking at those sales/coins you might be able to come up with an estimated value for a 66 while combining it with your other knowledge/experience. The price for the 66 you come up with is not a direct quote of an auction house's data. You are taking multiple publicly available data points to come up with an estimated value. My opinion of course, not legal advice. My point is, you need the human to help fill gaps/inaccuracies in price guides...or just leave it blank. If a coin sells for $1025.50 at one place, I would not put the price guide value at $1025.50 (which would be an exact data point from a seller...ie proprietary data). I would take other factors into consideration. Was that can an awesome toner? Did it have a green bean, gold bean? Did it have a distracting hit or luster break? Could it be considered over-graded? Was it the first example to publicly sell in several years? What is the actual demand? If a variety, how many ACTIVE registry set builders are there for that item? How many of those people need that coin or have an example graded lower? Many data points have to be considered. Based on that one sale and other data points, it might be determined that the value is $750 or $900 or $1100 or $1500. Filling in the gaps and making niche areas accurate takes time, knowledge and effort...not just a single proprietary data point you want to extract from one seller. My non-legal advice opinion.

winesteven · August 8, 2021 10:34AM

I think your idea is great for niche areas, and YOU should start one for Top Pop Merc Varieties and High Grade Merc toners. Yes, it'll take you a lot of time to keep that updated, but you can then sell it to all of those interested in that niche. Obviously, all of the existing guides are not of much use for this niche! Go for it!!!!!

keyman64 · August 8, 2021 10:58AM

@winesteven said:
I think your idea is great for niche areas, and YOU should start one for Top Pop Merc Varieties and High Grade Merc toners. Yes, it'll take YOU a lot of time to keep that updated, but you can then sell it to all of those interested in that niche. Obviously, all of the existing guides are not of much use for this niche! Go for it!!!!!

Ha ha ha ha, no thanks. Putting in days worth of work for a couple dozen people max is not worth it. And I would not be naïve enough to attempt to sell the information. My point is this. If you are going to publish data, you should make an effort for it to be accurate or not put it out there. For now, as I have done for years, I will just take advantage of the inaccurate information. Mercury Dime Varieties is not the only area of the price guides that have issues. It is just one example because that is the sandbox that I play in.

jmlanzaf · August 8, 2021 11:33AM

@keyman64 said:

@winesteven said:
I think your idea is great for niche areas, and YOU should start one for Top Pop Merc Varieties and High Grade Merc toners. Yes, it'll take YOU a lot of time to keep that updated, but you can then sell it to all of those interested in that niche. Obviously, all of the existing guides are not of much use for this niche! Go for it!!!!!

Ha ha ha ha, no thanks. Putting in days worth of work for a couple dozen people max is not worth it. And I would not be naïve enough to attempt to sell the information. My point is this. If you are going to publish data, you should make an effort for it to be accurate or not put it out there. For now, as I have done for years, I will just take advantage of the inaccurate information. Mercury Dime Varieties is not the only area of the price guides that have issues. It is just one example because that is the sandbox that I play in.

They do try to be accurate. No guide, including yours, is going to be accurate for top pops and thinly trade coins. Guides are al ways more accurate for widgets because of the statistics and coomoditization. Coins that trade once per year at auction will never be accurately reflected in a guide.

MFeld · August 8, 2021 11:37AM

@YQQ said:
Auction house values usually include juice.
But, big BUT: if two idiots are bidding in an auction on one "must have " coin...
Sometimes they get carried away. ( especially if they have more $$$$ than brains).
Is that result then being used as a guideline for pricing?
Personally, I would use this formula which favors the majority of coins sold:
do not count 2nd highest paid in 3 months
do not count 2nd **lowest paid in 3 months
add all the others in between total paid in 3 months
divided by the total number( excluding the highest and lowest) of coins sold.
**This is a much fairer assessment of a retail price.

That might make sense for rather frequently traded coins, but many coins don’t trade for months or years.

yosclimber · August 8, 2021 2:00PM

Usually price guide values are weighted averages of past coin sales within the category, with higher weight on recent sales.
If a coin has not traded recently, the value can be extrapolated using trends from similar coins.
The tricky parts are gathering good data, deciding what weights to use, and how to use trends.

Where do the TPG get their coin values that they publish on their websites?

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