Card value increase and how it affects grading
Terwin
Posts: 70 ✭✭
There seems to be quite a few discussions on these boards lately about (the fictional) Grader of Death and how grades seem to be a little harsher lately. I've always defended PSA over the years arguing that it all evens out in the end, when I hear of this harshness. I do, however, think that the thoughts of grading a card a Gem Mint 10 and therefore making it a $50,000 card is different now than it was years ago when the card did not have the increased value. The problem is that they did grade cards back then and there are many new 9's that look better than the old 10's. In defense of the graders, perhaps they grade it correctly and the person who reviews the grades downgrades them.
A little bit about myself... I collect only PSA 9's, mostly vintage. About 9 years ago I purchased a PSA 9 Michael Jordan, and upon receiving it, I could not find a flaw, it looked perfect. I had never used the review service in the past but decided to give it a try...Voila, it came back in a 10 holder (worth about $8000.00 back then). This has become, pretty much what I have done since then. I go to shows, auctions, ebay, etc and buy high end PSA 9's only and send them in for review. I have done very well with this over the years, and can go into detail at some other point. I have averaged about 30 bumps a year (I send in lots of stuff and multiple times on many). By the way, I've sold most of these cards over the years and never had one person complain thinking the card was over graded.
I know, I know...where am I going with this? Back to my original point, I have not received a bump in over a year. Now, either I've "lost" my eye or the prospect of bumping a Jordan to a half a million dollar card is a scary proposition...were it a John Bagley, maybe it's an easy bump in the same condition. This is not sour grapes (maybe a little)... I get it, and understand, and don't have a solution.
Anyway, I just wanted to open this up to some discussion, as I think it's a worthy subject.
Comments
...Or maybe not? First time making a post on these boards and I get ghosted. Ouch. Hope I didn't come across the wrong way
Naaa. It’s early still. Give people the the benefit of the doubt. And you raise a good point. I no doubt believe PSA has tightened the screws not only on grading a card a ‘10’ but also on reviews. I wouldn’t be surprised also if they have an internal system where they can type in a cert number and pull up the notes on that particular grade. 🤷♂️ Could be any number of things. Just gotta trust the process.
This is why I am holding off sending "pack fresh" cards deserving 9 or better -Bonds, Jordans, Griffeys etc..'cause I know they're in pissy mood lately and appears to be taking out on their paying customers which is totally unfair/unprecedented practices for a business.
Sounds like you have changed your mind, modified your opinion or are admitting you were completely wrong on "defending" PSA?
Your post first says that you were finding undergraded 9's and getting 30 bumps a year (nice!), indicating it was pretty easy to find incorrectly graded cards. Lately this has not been your experience so either you have "lost your eye" or things have changed at PSA.
Right from day one PSA has generally (imo) been an undergrader rather than an overgrader (no one is perfect). Sound business decision and it, along with the Registry, "won" them the battle of TPG.
Certain years have always been graded differently; 1962, 1971 and 1975 immediately come to mind. Years with white borders don't show wear as easily so there has always been a discrepancy there. Frustrating, but understandable. Flaws are easier to see on cards with a colored border, especially corners. Microscopic white at the tip of a corner destroys dark bordered cards and is often (never?) seen on a white bordered card. Pretty much impossible to notice in the short time a grader has to look.
The "grader of death" certainly exists, there are probably several. Probably a few "graders of life" too ;-). Card grading is not an exact science and some people are more "picky" than others.
Now, with the tidal wave of cards coming in, I believe they may have "tightened it up" a bit more. Certainly nothing wrong with telling graders to make sure all cards that get a 10, "deserve" a 10. Stress this enough and people will take it to heart. Another sound business decision. If 10's become commonplace their value might drop and now that grading fees have more than doubled, they certainly wouldn't like that.
I have a 150+ card submission in grading right now. I went over the cards several times and had a buddy of mine who has a great eye, look at them twice, each time removing cards that had any flaws or weren't perfectly centered.
I am worried that I will be getting destroyed, getting many 9's and few 10's. I hope not, but that's what I am preparing for.
Remind yourself that PSA is a business, and is in business to make a profit, their decisions are not made to make everyone happy, and they have had an incredibly brilliant and successful business plan so far.
Yeah, I guess I made the mistake of bringing up two subjects which I thought were related to each other. I defend PSA only in saying that I think the grades even out over time and that there probably isn't a "grader of death" per se. My real point was that it is really tough to give a card a 10 holder when doing so makes it a $50,000 card when a 9 may be $1000. The card when bumped keeps the original serial number, and I'm sure, when the person who owned it as 9 now sees it as a 10 they freak out and call PSA to complain. Maybe they give it a new cert. #, or they go to a half grade 9.5 like they've done with the other half grades. Maybe they have a 3 reviews and you're out policy where that card can't be reviewed again. I had a 1968 Topps Clemente which I was sure was a 10... I sent it 9 times to be reviewed and finally sold it. The guy I sold it to sent it in and it was returned in a 10 holder. There certainly are high and low end mint cards out there.
I have had a 2% success rate in review bumps in the last year after averaging 15% per year for ten years. I would imagine the revenue generation incentive isn’t there anymore for review submissions.
Congratulations on your success over the years. I know I have enjoyed doing the same. Seems like those days are over now.
To me increased prices is more incentive to give out that 10. Bigger fee increase to the bottom line now that the 10 is so expensive. However I do not think that factors into graders decisions.
I really think graders have almost no time to look at your card and really do the best they can to assess it in the short time they have. On ultra modern they probably look at a card and believe it is a 9 or 10 and look for the first flaw that bumps it down. As soon as they find they call it a 9 and are done. Sometimes a scratch or centering or one corner brings it down more.
On vintage - they probably have a gut feel in a second - this looks like a 7 or 8 or etc. They then look closer and either stay with the gut grade or lower based on what they see. Bet they rarely gut grade something then raise it. These are people doing a job and being judged on how many cards they get through in a day.
They really don’t care what they grade the card - just that they feel they gave it the right grade in the least amount of time. As the mountain of cards to be graded has grown I am sure the throughput per hour expectations have increased. Through experience from looking at thousands of cards and training they usually get it right with a margin of error of +/- 1 grade. I do not think they care if they give your card a 9 or a 10.
All of us take more time on the what would you grade this card posts than the PSA grader is allowed to spend with each card. They have a tough job in a tough environment and overall do very well.
It could potentially destroy the integrity of 10 grades on pre-2021 slabs.
Unless otherwise specified my posts represent only my opinion, not fact.
I actually sent in 4 9's for review hoping that the big grading fees for a bump might produce some tiny kind of tiebreaker when graders are on the fence about dropping that ten.
Bosox1976
That would be a horrible long term business decision. They have just more than doubled their fees and are only accepting Super Express and Walk Through orders at this time. Every card submitted in the next 2 1/2 months will cost you at least $300.00.
They built their reputation on being tough but fair graders, giving out 10's to drive money to the bottom line would make them no better than PRO.
This is purely speculation. You have no proof that they’re taking anything out on anybody! IMO comments like this do nothing to forward a discussion. I don’t want to speculate myself but, this shutdown was probably a HUGE RELIEF for graders so they can get caught up! If 3 months worth of cards showed up in 3 days I’d be upset and stressed outta my mind as a grader!
It just blows my mind how many people complain on this board about things that they have no idea about what goes on. Give them the benefit of the doubt that they’re doing their best not only trying to get caught up but to be fair with their grades as well.
I believe a lot of us are in this boat. I have about 600 cards somewhere in the grading process. Most have been at PSA since last July so should be getting close to completed. Some of them (especially the 76's) are some of the best I've ever seen, and certainly the best I've ever submitted. The nice thing is that PSA keeps our history and I've reviewed mine. I would consider myself pretty knowledgeable on 76's having submitted over 500 of them. I have a 10% success rate on receiving 10's on cards I sub hoping for a 10. My success rate on 77's and 78's is higher and 75's is lower. Not sure if that is due to luck, or if they are easier on 77's and 78's and tougher on 75's but that is my experience. All that to say, I have more expertise on 76's and history tells me they are tough on them. I have a sub with 80 that are spectacular. If I don't hit somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 10's I will be disappointed and if I only hit a few I will think something has changed drastically in the grading standards. So far my recent subs have not had different results than my past, but I haven't received anything back from PSA in 3 months, so I certainly have my fingers crossed.
Jeff
Collecting:
post world war II HOF rookie
76 topps gem mint 10 commons 9 stars
Arenado purple refractors(Rockies) Red (Cardinals)
successful deals with Keevan, Grote15, 1954, mbogoman
The above along with the OP's success rate is why I wouldn't dare send anything in for a long time. Maybe in 2 or 3 years if this changes I might change my mind.
I now focus on collecting graded cards that are cheap. With the cost of grading doubling just getting a nice graded card under $100 bucks is well worth it.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
The fact of the matter is, no card is perfect. If grading (or reviewing) a card to a Gem Mint 10 means that the card will be worth $100,000+ then they can always find something to keep it at a 9. The problem is that this deviates from the grading standards which have been used for decades. The end result may be that you have PSA 9 cards which are better than some of the 10s out there. As I mentioned earlier, I've had some great cards bumped including a Brady RC Contenders. Of course that was in 2012 when a 10 was worth $7000...now that it's a half a million dollar card there is no way that gets bumped, as worthy as it was.