Heritage early half cents sold today reveal major EAC market weakness
rays
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Three major early US half cent rarities sold today by Heritage revealed weakness in the EAC market. In my estimation, the top of the US coin market was the FUN show January 2014.
Having attended dozens of coin auctions over the past three decades, I have seen a gradual "graying" of the audience. Who are the young people who will pay ever higher prices for these treasures when the current owners pass on? A few well-healed collectors exiting the market (e.g. Pogue) makes a huge difference in prices realized on these upper end coins.
Three examples from today's auctions:
1. Lot 3976: 1793 half cent C3 PCGS MS65BN, sold for $384,000. This same coin sold for $718,750 at Goldberg's in 2014 and $446,000 at Stack's in 2016.
2. Lot 3978: 1796 Half Cent, C1: No pole. PCGSMS67RB. The legendary Eliasberg specimen, finest known and truly a national treasure. This one really belongs in the Smithsonian. Sold for $780,000 today. This coin was the first US copper coin to ever sell in a public auction for over $100,000, when it sold to Spectrum in 1996 for $506,000, an astounding sum at the time. We don't know what Pogue paid privately to Spectrum in 2002, but it sold in 2016 for $763,750.
3. Lot 3979: 1811 US half cent, PCGS MS66RB, probably finest known, sold for $336,000. This coin sold for $1,121,250 in January 2014 at Goldberg's sale of Tet's half cent collection, and subsequently sold for $998,750 when Pogue's collection was sold by Stacks in 2017.
Contrary to the results of these upper market coins, I have seen the market for key mint state Lincoln cents in grades of MS63-65 Brown to RB continue to advance over the pat year or so.
Comments
Great post, sir, very informative. Thanks for putting this together.
Have you looked at the rest of the market? Does the trend hold across other series or are half cents are just falling out of style?
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
I believe this is true for the EAC market in general. I am not really that familiar with other series.
I think I can state with a high degree of certainty that the Eliasberg 1796 no pole half cent will never fall out of style. There are a great many people who would want to own that coin. Its historical significance is substantial.
Not just half cents
https://coins.ha.com/itm/large-cents/1811-1c-s-287-b-1-r2-ms65-red-pcgs-cac-pcgs-36498-/a/1326-3986.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
For anyone too lazy to search, looks like she sold for $493,500 in 2017 and $198,000 today. Ouch.
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
I haven't been paying a great deal to this, but have noticed a gradual softening of the market for pretty much everything, except for the "must have" higher end 20th century coins. As Rays wrote above, it started at the end of 2014.
Sometimes it's increased pops softening prices. In this case, I think it's a number of "big fish" leaving the market with no one replacing them.
On a much lower more affordable note. Liqudating my personal collection, Just had similar results on some nicer earlier copper. 1793 half cent, 1793 large cent , nice classic head. coins in the 10-30K range. These fell a bit short of what I was hoping in auction, but then on the same token, the silver issues did a little better, so it evened out.
Do the Lincolns sell in the same 6 figure price range?
I don't think one can really look at the Pogue sales as normal market events. Many coins sold for exceedingly high amounts due to the named sale.
For anyone buying in such a sale and hoping to recoup their investment, it might be worthwhile to create a noteworthy provenance as well.
As an example, @wondercoin recently reported obtaining a top pop Pogue coin for much less after it sold at Pogue.
Here's the Beckwith-Terranova-Pogue 1811 cent mentioned:
On the lower end of the Pogue scale. This coin sold for $900 in March 20, 2020 in Pogue and then sold in eBay for just $549 on Dec 27, 2020.
Yes and no. The Pogue sale was a named sale, but so are many other collections when important coins come to auction. The malaise affecting the early American copper market is much more widespread than just the top-end Pogue coins.
The remarkable thing about the three coins I mentioned is the Eliasberg 1796 no pole. An advance in value from $506K in 1996 to $780K today, 25 years later, is not a very good return on investment. I had (quite wrongly, it turns out) anticipated a sales price of over $2M when the Pogue sale occured in 2016.
Finally, I always find it curious when a person's name becomes attached to a coin they held briefly. I love Tony (Terranova), but I believe he bought the 1811 S-287 as a dealer and held it for a brief period of time in late 1990 to early 1991.
Most coins are not a good investment compared to say stock. Just look at the Stickney-Partrick Brasher which was sold for almost $10M. Investing in the S&P 500 over the same period would have returned over $80M.
It is curious
Perusing Heritage large cents in the just completed and ongoing auctions in the shallow end of the pool, I see a mixed bag of results, with some items bringing well in excessive of (retail) price guides, and others hammering for less than Greysheet. Of course, coins like this generally trade on their own merits, being less generic within a grade range than Morgan dollars, etc.
So, while disconcerting to see these beautiful ultra rarities bring far less than previously, there appears to still be decent demand for the lower grade "collector" large cents, for now.
A few of those are true bloodbaths...yikes! BUT, several of the items I was watching sold for far stronger prices than just a few years ago. A VF details chain cent sold for 10K+ when 3 years ago I similar coin would have went for 6-7K. An XF details chain cent sold for 17K+ whereas I bought some in the past (same grade and looked better) from Heritage for under 8K. A 1796 10c unc details sold for 12K and I wasn't comfortable even at 6K because it was ugly and comparables were weak. It seems like early, rare, "details" coins are bringing very strong prices lately.
How many players are there for $500,000 early coppers? A dozen maybe? It's an interesting data point but the market is so thin I wouldn't read too much into it. I'd be more interested in what collector-grade 1794 Sheldon varieties are going for.
In the market I play in (circulated Liberty Seated coinage) I'm seeing tons of action, especially for anything reasonably original and eye appealing.
Whales are sated....that's all in my view.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Anyone consider the fact that it's not red ?
The rest of the market must be doing okay, just not the trophy coins for the wealthy? Here is the latest year of the PCGS 3000. Hey if I ever get rich good to know the uber coins are cheap!
all it takes is a few millionaires to fight each other to skew the perceptions of value. Dealers are quick to point out spikes in auction results as new values. Those new spikes encourage the fighters to fight harder and bid more. At some point they tap out and someone just inherits the belt because there was no one left to fight. Look at million dollar early American furniture. It was hot as magma in the 90s where even ok stuff shot up. It all fell off once people stop really wanting to put it in their houses.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
Not enough whales swimming the seas.
The market is graying no way to sugar coat that fact. Where are the newbie whales? Why aren't the major market stakeholders doing more promotion?
Why do we have to hear multiple media releases about a Mickey Mantle card selling for 5.2M and two more in gem valued at over 10M? Why was there very little national press on the Doubloon?
Huge hurdles out there for future classic valuation.
Here's the 10 year version of the PCGS-3000, so that 2014 is included.
50 year version.
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/pcgs3000
If you don’t look at the actual numbers, that chart sure gives the impression that the gain was a lot more than approximately 1 3/4%.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Thin market are dangerous markets.
I think the hobby needs whales, they make the news and get people interested in looking at all old coinage. I'm not sure that the whales really set or represent the market on the whole. Lots of people on this board are getting tax returns and stimulus money that will be poured into coins that range from $20-$2000. The whales have entirely different circumstances guiding their purchases (also known as "problems I'd like to have").
It will be interesting to see if any of the people who are so into cards right now will ever shift into coins. I know I did years ago. I don't even register as a minnow, but there are a lot of people like me in coins and cards.
As they in the stock market BUY THE DIP
BHNC #248 … 130 and counting.
Start the discussion with what are reasonable evaluations... just because something fell as pointed out in the post, was that not from a point that was simply non sustainable?
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
For many coins in this price range, the presence (or absence) of one single bidder can make a massive difference in price realized. It has always been so.
Coin Rarities Online
Agreed. I think I personally added $1-2M to the price realized on the 1804$10.
And at the end of the day, does that not prove my point as to whether these auction prices prices are just not sustainable?
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I just want to say: **That is one sexy arse quarter **
Strive not to be a success, but rather to be of value.
There are few players in the $500K+ market. I am not now, nor have I ever been, in that range of buyers. I would buy the Eliasberg no pole half cent for $250K in a second if that was the market value. It's worth that much to me.
It doesn’t prove your point to me. Sure, one less bidder can result in a much lower price. But just as easily, one more bidder can result in a much higher one. It can go either way, and often goes both ways (in the same sale and over time).
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Sometimes all it takes to skew an auction result is the momentary inattention of one or more of the interested bidders (I've seen it happen).
I don't doubt your sincerity, but it takes a lot more guts to put up $250k when the whole market has come down to a level where $250k is a realistic value.
I think you meant to say it takes a lot more guts to put up $500k when the market has come down to $250k.
You might say guts, but someone else could say irrational exuberance, another term for...
Yes, one high end collector can move the market. So we need to know what is the trend for those collectors.
We know several major collectors have left the hobby recently and for prices to be sustained, they need to be replaced. Who are the new collectors of these?
That is a beautiful coin! I was so tempted to pick it up but they aren't in my wheelhouse right now. I keep telling myself to focus!
That's happened to me when I slept through the end of auctions
Collecting something else thats a lot cheaper while they get their legs under them, professionally. @tradedollarnut didn't jump in and start buying big $ coins right off the bat, he worked his way up. I'd expect the whales of the next decade are just now beginning to look at the higher ends of the market and pushing towards buying those mid 5 figure coins that really set the foundation for expanding into the six and seven figure range.
Though I will tell ya this, the way that sports cards and TCG markets are moving, that's where those guys are right now, probably. I sunk $8,000 into some Magic Cards 3 years ago and that is worth around $20,000 today. If I had bought first edition Pokemon instead? Probably $50k+.
The bulk of coin collectors were in their mid to late 40s when 1989 happened in coins. The guys collecting sports cards today are in their early 40's today. The guys in Magic are in their early to mid 30's, maybe early 40's for some of the older ones, and the guys in Pokemon are in their mid to late 20's.
The markets reach their peak when the individuals that constitute the market reach peak earnings potential. TCG collectors are just getting started.
Just for a taste of data, here's a chart of a Magic Card's price since 2014. $100 to $500 today. Check any MTG reserved list card that is playable in a deck, they're all rising as discretionary income of their owners rises.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
This generational approach is a good way to look at hobbies.
Those are nice high end coins and with bring more money next time I suspect. Could be that the lack of coin shows and personal viewing of coins could slow the market in some series for awhile? Perhaps some of the high end players have invested funds elsewhere for now and will back later..
I completely agree with you. My hypothetical is probably useless even for myself, as no one knows what would happen should the market value of the Eliasberg 1796 no pole drop to $250K. There would be many doubts about whether the market would be subject to further declines, etc. I just know that is the most I could possibly justify paying for any US coin, and the Eliasberg no pole would be at the very top of my list. I've owned both with pole and no pole 1796 half cents before but nothing of the amazing quality of this one.
Those that wait for the bottom of the market usually miss it.
A: The year they spend more on their library than their coin collection.
A numismatist is judged more on the content of their library than the content of their cabinet.
Of course the market is weak. Because politicians and scientists control the market as they control the people. Duh.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
This is true, and a major consideration. Still, I'll add that certain types of trophy coins got way ahead of the rest of the market - the Missouri Cabinet 1811 Half Cent at over $1 million is a perfect example - and a correction was inevitable. And while I think that the correction in mega-quality early type is probably just about done at this point, there are other more obvious market segments that could take very major hits.
To be clear, I am not bearish on the entire market. Just on certain types of things. (Just picked this one up at the "FUN" auction. Would a bear do that?)
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Of course the market is weak. Because politicians and scientists control the market as they control the people. Duh.
Really...? It is simply not helpful to bring an alternative universe view into this which has no application to a high end and narrow component of a market that only very few are fortunate enough to participate.
Instead, it seems to make more sense to look at evaluations and what is reasonable before concluding that the sky is falling. In this instance, there really needs to be more consideration as to what truly supports pricing/valuations associated with a high end market. For those of you who are satisfied establishing valuations predicated on bidding and those who bid and do not bid can consider some further analysis as to stability and what is truly sustainable in supporting a high end niche market.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
One of three things is going to happen:
Due to the rising money supply we are going to have rampant inflation and the price of ‘things’ will go through the roof while the cost of holding actual dollars becomes inordinately high
Despite the feds best efforts deflationary pressures overcome the rising money supply and the cost of things falls through the floor while holding onto dollars becomes the right thing to do
Somewhere in between
Thanks for the interesting analysis. > @Zoins said:
You snooze....You LOSE.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
@rays Thanks for the interesting observation and analysis.
The price difference in that 1811 is SHOCKING!!
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/