Aaron Judge....... “What if”

KingBen · September 3, 2020 2:31PM

Received my introductory PSA grading package today, and came with this amazing book!

“What if” reminds me so much of Aaron Judge...

What say you of his career when it’s all said and done? Any expert opinions/guesses?

Horse · September 3, 2020 2:50PM

It’s a bummer but unless he hits three dingers in a WS game 7, he came in too late and gets too hurt.

I almost rooted for the Yanks a couple years ago because of him. Thankfully that went away. 👊

KingBen · September 3, 2020 3:23PM

@Horse said:
It’s a bummer but unless he hits three dingers in a WS game 7, he came in too late and gets too hurt.

I almost rooted for the Yanks a couple years ago because of him. Thankfully that went away. 👊

Lol... he has that affect on people. He’s electrifying!!! 💥

Too late? I see World Series wins in his future.

80sForever · September 3, 2020 3:43PM

There's still time for him to do incredible, incredible things.

For instance, I think he's hands down the best bet around to have a 60+ HR season in the game today. Maybe even 70.

But because he had that wonderful rookie year at 25, and is currently 28, he's gotta find a way to stay healthy and quick if we're talking about career numbers that get him into a HOF conversation.

He doesn't have the luxury of time that others have. He's gotta start banking the stats now if he's gonna end up with a HOF-type career.

These recurring calf strains, etc. are really a bummer.

I'd like to think he gets to 400 career HR (or way more) but I worry about the compounded effect of always battling injuries.

Horse · September 3, 2020 4:18PM

Aaron also has one of those horseman faces, like John Elway. Never supported the Broncos because of Elway's horse face.

LarkinCollector · September 3, 2020 4:36PM

What if he could even stay healthy for a 60 game season? He's got the talent and correct uniform to be a hobby hero, but nagging injuries with current age leave me less than excited. I'd much rather have hobby money tied to the Childish Bambino at this point.

lwehlers · September 3, 2020 5:29PM

i do not get the hype with judge. the guy cannot stay healthy. the guy is a great player but like stanton he is cursed. both of those players are great when they play but the last two years. it has been tough to see them on the injury list more then on the playing field hitting homeruns.

MikeyP · September 3, 2020 5:37PM

My biggest concern about Aaron Judge is his proneness to injuries as well.

markj111 · September 3, 2020 9:38PM

Judge is 28, and is unlike;y to have big career totals. A cautionary tale. Most of the high priced rookies of today will be the minor stars of tomorrow.

ArtVandelay · September 3, 2020 10:30PM

Judge was way too old to start his career at 25. Generally, most Hall of Famers have 1500 hits by 30 or they are at or near 300 homers. Judge reminds me of Cecil Fielder finally cracked the starting lineup at 26 and also hit 50 that first year. He ended up with 319 career homers and Judge will probably end up around the same total. Not too many people collecting Cecil Fielder cards these days which gives you a peek at Aaron Judge's future in the hobby.

Stanton is a whole another situation. He started early at 20 years old and already has 311 homers(200 more than Judge) and is just 2 years older than Judge. Stanton is a good Hall of Fame bet when looking at long term potential as if he can come back from injuries and have 4-5 solid years it should put him at or near 500 homers which is the normal benchmark for the hall of fame.

80sForever · September 3, 2020 11:38PM

@ArtVandelay said:
Judge was way too old to start his career at 25. Generally, most Hall of Famers have 1500 hits by 30 or they are at or near 300 homers. Judge reminds me of Cecil Fielder finally cracked the starting lineup at 26 and also hit 50 that first year. He ended up with 319 career homers and Judge will probably end up around the same total. Not too many people collecting Cecil Fielder cards these days which gives you a peek at Aaron Judge's future in the hobby.

Stanton is a whole another situation. He started early at 20 years old and already has 311 homers(200 more than Judge) and is just 2 years older than Judge. Stanton is a good Hall of Fame bet when looking at long term potential as if he can come back from injuries and have 4-5 solid years it should put him at or near 500 homers which is the normal benchmark for the hall of fame.

I essentially agree with this entire assessment. In fact, I was thinking of Cecil's kid (who coincidentally ended up with the exact same number of career homers as his dad) when trying to find a comparable for Judge.

But just to play devil's advocate...

Let's the take the case of David Ortiz. Ortiz didn't even have a 20-HR season until his sixth year in the league (2002) and he was 26 years old at the time. At the conclusion of that age-26 season, Ortiz had compiled 58 career HR.

By contrast, Judge had 83 HR at the conclusion of his age-26 season, which was 2018.

Despite the late start, Ortiz went on to amass 541 career HR and seems a safe bet to be inducted into the HOF. Of course, postseason heroics and his home team play a huge role in Ortiz's legacy but those opportunities also exist for Judge.

There is also the obvious elephant in the room with Ortiz which is PED allegations.

Their bodies are also different and Ortiz became a durable monster with the BoSox after that 20-HR season with the Twins. Judge, as we know, can't seem to stay on the field.

There are plenty of good, sound reasons why Judge won't be able to equal the 541 HR compiled by Ortiz, and smart money would say he doesn't.

But if you're making arguments for Judge, the 10.4 AB per HR he put up in his rookie year bests MLB's all-time career leader in the category (Mark McGwire, 10.61). He's fallen off a bit since then but actually improved to 1 HR every 7.2 AB this year when he's actually been on the field.

I know these are selective, favorable arguments, but then again he did defy all logic with what he did in 2017 and with what he was doing this year before he went down.

His natural power and being able to play in that ballpark are true gifts.

Here's hoping he stays on the field long enough for us to find out the full extent of what he can do with them.

80sOPC · September 4, 2020 6:53AM

His injuries will likely only get worse due to his size. I think he is around 270 and if he can’t stay healthy at 28 I don’t like his odds to play into his late 30s. Which is unfortunate cause he is a stud.

3stars · September 4, 2020 10:06AM

Aaron Judge = David Wright. Could have been something special if not for injuries.

craig44 · September 4, 2020 10:28AM

judge is a very good player, but brittle and made of glass. a shame really.

DM23HOF · September 4, 2020 11:01AM

I am a big fan of this kid, in terms of what he can do on the field and his intangibles and star quality— but as so many have said so well above, he has to play.

I think he can change the narrative with a playoff run on par with the great performance he was giving earlier this season, and if he also stays healthy for the next 5 years and leads them to one World Series title. To become a beloved Yankee star the threshold is not Hall Of Fame, as evidenced by the love that Donnie Baseball still gets to this day. A few MVP caliber seasons out of say five good years and add in a ring would get him there in Yankee fandom. He has the potential to do that yet of course only time will tell. Will be a good story to see unfold in real time these coming years as the potential is there. I hope he rights his listing "health ship" and finds a groove, as he seems like a really good dude and wants it.

mrmopar · September 4, 2020 3:17PM

@ArtVandelay said:
Judge was way too old to start his career at 25.

Sorry, but I have to point this out as it struck me as funny. It sounds like something Yogi Berra would say. I know the internet is "informal", but this sentence needs rewording or punctuation. I mean if he was way too old to start his career at 25, how old was he? 30?

Perhaps "Judge was already way too old at 25, when his career started."

ArtVandelay · September 4, 2020 4:28PM

I tend to disagree. Baseball card collectors almost always focus on youth and prospecting. Once a player passes the 5 year mark you tend to see a rapid drop in interest in the player unless their career arc looks something like Mike Trout.

DM23HOF · September 4, 2020 6:37PM

In general I totally agree, yet with Yankee collectors the pool is big enough to sort of create its own hobby ecosystem, if you will. I think these playoffs and next season are really critical for him to step up health wise.

The comment about yoga and him needing to change his workouts is really on point. I work closely with a trainer who has handled some major MLB hitters post injury, and he explained to me how surprised he was (initially; not any longer now) at how these players don’t do yoga, get enough body work/massage, accupuncture, or practice nutrition and other ways of reducing inflammation. I wish Judge would get on that train. Time will tell.

KingBen · September 12, 2020 6:14PM

Sounds like he’s coming back this coming week! 👍👍

🤞

dictoresno · September 13, 2020 7:38AM

I went in heavy on Judge in 2017 and amassed a large amount of his cards. tired of watching his back and forth injuries and even though he's on my favorite team, I decided to cash in on a large portion of the collection. I dont see his values really going anywhere higher than that may be right now and I dont want the risk anymore.

Aaron Judge....... “What if”

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