This Is What's Killing Coin Collecting Hobby!

1630Boston · July 16, 2020 1:23PM

Some of his thoughts are interesting

abcde12345 · July 16, 2020 1:36PM

"I am going to address the white elephant in the room." White Elephant is a gag Christmas gift.
Other than that faux pas, interesting video.

yosclimber · July 16, 2020 1:45PM

It all starts with the United States Mint.

Here he is addressing the market for modern coins.
Sure, there is an oversupply and people lose money on most of these.

Then he discusses uninformed "collectors" that bought overpriced repackaged sets.
This is also not a new phenomenon.

Having uninformed people buy overpriced stuff and lose money is not really a problem with the collector market.
These people are more like naive investors rather than collectors.

cladking · July 16, 2020 3:52PM

The hobby isn't dying at all and is getting more vibrant every day. What's suffering are the prices of the coins he likes and this is not being caused by crooks, mints, or grading companies. It's not being caused by people slamming and bashing any segment of the coin market. It is caused by demographics which is by definition a temporary force.

In twenty or thirty years the hobby may really be dying and this guy will think it's never been better. This is all caused by the human perversity to buy high and sell low. Most people are happiest when they are doing the same thing as everyone else. We all tend to see what we believe preferentially to what really exists. With the prices of his stock dropping he sees a dying hobby and never notices the women, children, and young adults getting involved in the hobby.

hammer1 · July 16, 2020 4:00PM

This is also what's killing Coin Collecting:

as of 1-1-2011 on that day, and for every day thereafter for the next 19 years, 10,000 baby boomers will reach age 65. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2010/12/29/baby-boomers-retire/

The most important demographic shift is that numismatic collectors reaching retirement tend to slow down building their holdings. It is likely that many formerly active buyers could turn into net sellers as they seek to augment their cash flow. Any reduction in demand or increase in supply in rare coin market is generally followed by falling prices. https://coinweek.com/opinion/coin-collector-demographics-affect-numismatic-supply-and-demand/

No prior generation had 10,000 people reaching age 65 EVERYDAY for 19 years.

jmlanzaf · July 16, 2020 4:10PM

@abcde12345 said:
"I am going to address the white elephant in the room." White Elephant is a gag Christmas gift.
Other than that faux pas, interesting video.

Why can't there be a white elephant in the room?

jmlanzaf · July 16, 2020 4:20PM

I didn't find anything he said novel or compelling. The U.S. Mint makes a product. People either want it or not. "Want" is not the same as "invest".

I bought a Fiji Coke bottle cap coin. I love it. It makes me laugh. I don't ever expect it to be worth what I paid for it. I don't care.

If he wants to argue that EXPECTATION of price increases are killing the market, then I'll listen.

He talks about capitalism and then faults the Mint for marketing and selling a product THAT DOESN'T EVEN MAKE THEM ANY MONEY!!! He wants them to sell it for $100 when they can't even turn a profit at $149.

1630Boston · July 16, 2020 4:30PM

@jmlanzaf said:
I didn't find anything he said novel or compelling.

.
Truly no offense to you, trust me.
But maybe 1 or 2 people here may find something interesting.

PS I love all of your posts here @jmlanzaf

1630Boston · July 16, 2020 4:33PM

I just thought he had one persons perspective,

jmlanzaf · July 16, 2020 4:38PM

@1630Boston said:

@jmlanzaf said:
I didn't find anything he said novel or compelling.

.
Truly no offense to you, trust me.
But maybe 1 or 2 people here may find something interesting.

PS I love all of your posts here @jmlanzaf

LOL. I said that "I" didn't find anything interesting. I didn't say no one did.

2ndCharter · July 16, 2020 4:47PM

The most important demographic shift is that numismatic collectors reaching retirement tend to slow down building their holdings.

Oh, yeah? I'm one of those over-the-hill baby boomers and I'm STILL getting outbid by collectors older than me! When's this slow down going to happen so I can start winning some auctions?

jmlanzaf · July 16, 2020 4:49PM

We should really address the 800 pound elephant in the room...

Is it really that the hobby is "dying" or just that it's evolving in ways that old traditional curmudgeons like ourselves don't like or understand?

A lot of worldwide NCLT gets sold. Our friends ATS basically make a living slabbing that stuff. People love Superman coins and Simpson coins, etc. We hate it because it's not the way people are SUPPOSED TO COLLECT, meaning not the way we collect.

I think there is probably a shrinking of the overall collector base. It has happened to just about every collectible in some ways. There used to be huge hobby shows in every medium-sized burg in the country. Those don't exist anymore.

I think there is definitely a shrinking of the "traditional" coin collector base. Look at ANA memberships over the last 15 years. Our local club had 300 members in the 1980s and 1990s but we've been struggling to maintain 150 now despite new internet members.

I think that shrinking of the traditional base will have and has had ramifications for coin prices in the widget to mid-range end of the market. I don't think those have bottomed yet. But shrinking prices don't have to mean a dying hobby.

Believe it or not, the stamp hobby still exists, though everything sells at fire sale prices. Doesn't make the old-timers happy. They remember when a nice set of Zeps cost $5000+ instead of $1000 like today. But, for people that like Zeps, it's a great time to enjoy owning a set.

@Ricko has the right idea. He just enjoys it whether prices are rising or falling.

Pnies20 · July 16, 2020 4:58PM

@yosclimber said:

It all starts with the United States Mint.

Here he is addressing the market for modern coins.
Sure, there is an oversupply and people lose money on most of these.

Then he discusses uninformed "collectors" that bought overpriced repackaged sets.
This is also not a new phenomenon.

Having uninformed people buy overpriced stuff and lose money is not really a problem with the collector market.
These people are more like naive investors rather than collectors.

It is In the sense that they may never develop into real collectors because they now view it a waste of time/money.

kiyote · July 16, 2020 5:01PM

I don’t do too many flips per year. I mostly buy to collect. when I’m stressed out, it’s fun to scan my Ike dollars in the capital plastics holder for and DDRs.

jmlanzaf · July 16, 2020 5:02PM

@Pnies20 said:

@yosclimber said:

It all starts with the United States Mint.

Here he is addressing the market for modern coins.
Sure, there is an oversupply and people lose money on most of these.

Then he discusses uninformed "collectors" that bought overpriced repackaged sets.
This is also not a new phenomenon.

Having uninformed people buy overpriced stuff and lose money is not really a problem with the collector market.
These people are more like naive investors rather than collectors.

It is In the sense that they may never develop into real collectors because they now view it a waste of time/money.

First of all, I hate the term "real collectors". But if they were in it for the money, they were never going to develop into collectors. They were speculators. They were more akin to the flippers that everyone around here claims to hate.

chesterb · July 16, 2020 5:09PM

I watched the whole video and agree with him. People get excited and want to collect coins but become disillusioned because of the prices charged and the fact that others take advantage of them. It happened to me when I started out not by the mint or the HSN type folks but from "vest pocket" dealers.

crazyhounddog · July 16, 2020 5:27PM

This hobby is alive and well. It is in fact the oldest hobby in the world and I don’t see it going anywhere.
Enjoy it and happy hunting, Joe

1630Boston · July 16, 2020 5:29PM

@crazyhounddog said:
This hobby is alive and well. It is in fact the oldest hobby in the world and I don’t see it going anywhere.
Enjoy it and happy hunting, Joe

Nice point @crazyhounddog

amwldcoin · July 16, 2020 5:41PM

Hmmm, This is a real collector here. I bought this coin from JJTeaparty a few years ago when they were selling Don Willis's set. I paid $13,500 for it. I'm not in a hurry to sell it...but have it listed on ebay at a net break even. Youse guys go check out the price guide on this one! Still on the fence which one I want to keep...but the other matches my set better. I have 2 of the 5 graded in 58. Think I can get my money outta this one?

@jmlanzaf said:

@Pnies20 said:

@yosclimber said:

It all starts with the United States Mint.

Here he is addressing the market for modern coins.
Sure, there is an oversupply and people lose money on most of these.

Then he discusses uninformed "collectors" that bought overpriced repackaged sets.
This is also not a new phenomenon.

Having uninformed people buy overpriced stuff and lose money is not really a problem with the collector market.
These people are more like naive investors rather than collectors.

It is In the sense that they may never develop into real collectors because they now view it a waste of time/money.

First of all, I hate the term "real collectors". But if they were in it for the money, they were never going to develop into collectors. They were speculators. They were more akin to the flippers that everyone around here claims to hate.

ShadyDave · July 16, 2020 6:24PM

@hammer1 said:
This is also what's killing Coin Collecting:

as of 1-1-2011 on that day, and for every day thereafter for the next 19 years, 10,000 baby boomers will reach age 65. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2010/12/29/baby-boomers-retire/

The most important demographic shift is that numismatic collectors reaching retirement tend to slow down building their holdings. It is likely that many formerly active buyers could turn into net sellers as they seek to augment their cash flow. Any reduction in demand or increase in supply in rare coin market is generally followed by falling prices. https://coinweek.com/opinion/coin-collector-demographics-affect-numismatic-supply-and-demand/

No prior generation had 10,000 people reaching age 65 EVERYDAY for 19 years.

Demographics in the US show that the millennial generation (my generation) is now larger than the baby boomer generation.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/28/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers-as-americas-largest-generation/

Millennials are finally starting to get their financial foothold these days which is good news for the coin collecting hobby. Student loans, poor job market between 2007-2011, high housing costs etc. all have slowed millenials ability to be financially secure. From my experience, millenials are more more interested in bullion over numismatics at this point in time. It is easier for a collector to start out focusing on bullion and then transitioning to numismatics. You can buy $1 face of 90%, a 1 oz. engelhard bar or an ASE without much impact to the wallet ($15-$25 depending on spot). There are tens of thousands of millenials out on facebook, instagram, reddit, discord and other social media and forums embracing the hobby.

The hobby is not dying, it is simply changing from coin shows and coin clubs to forums, social media and eBay, GC, HA, and other online selling venues. Corona has sped up the transition as in-person interactions have come to a halt the last four months. Prices online have been very strong the last few months and available items have been dwindling, causing prices to go up.

Pnies20 · July 16, 2020 7:52PM

@jmlanzaf said:

@Pnies20 said:

@yosclimber said:

It all starts with the United States Mint.

Here he is addressing the market for modern coins.
Sure, there is an oversupply and people lose money on most of these.

Then he discusses uninformed "collectors" that bought overpriced repackaged sets.
This is also not a new phenomenon.

Having uninformed people buy overpriced stuff and lose money is not really a problem with the collector market.
These people are more like naive investors rather than collectors.

It is In the sense that they may never develop into real collectors because they now view it a waste of time/money.

First of all, I hate the term "real collectors". But if they were in it for the money, they were never going to develop into collectors. They were speculators. They were more akin to the flippers that everyone around here claims to hate.

You can hate whatever you want but it’s semantics.

I was saying they didn’t get to develop their interest in the hobby.

So what if making money drew them into the hobby? It’s probably like that for lots of folks and then they develop a love for a particular series or whatever else they decide to do as they progress.

DeutscherGeist · July 17, 2020 1:23AM

Prospective coin collectors being discouraged due to the predatory scammers out there is a real problem.

A German coin collector basically settled me into the hobby and one of the first things he taught me were about the scams. He also showed me the variety of coins out there to help me develop my interest. I know I brought a few into the hobby as well and the initial things I would tell them is to explore what is interesting to them and to be careful of the scams. I was happy to help navigate some new collectors until they developed their own sense of knowledge about coins and enjoy the hobby.

jmlanzaf · July 17, 2020 5:31AM

@crazyhounddog said:
This hobby is alive and well. It is in fact the oldest hobby in the world and I don’t see it going anywhere.
Enjoy it and happy hunting, Joe

I think it is definitely not the oldest hobby in the world. The Chinese cultivated houseplants 5000 years ago, before there were any coins. And kings and pharaohs collected artworks before there were any coins, as well.

olympicsos · July 17, 2020 6:11AM

American coin collectors have too much of a bias towards classic coins and is Baby Boomer dominated. What is going to happen is that popular series such as Morgan Dollars are going to collapse in value and go into a decades long slump like classic commemoratives. Morgan Dollars, Buffalo Nickels, Mercury Dimes, Lincoln Cents etc. just don't cut it for Millennial and Generation Z. Even State Quarters doesn't really cut it for Millennial and Generation Z collectors, if State Quarters really brought in people to the hobby, you'd see a lot more interest in ATB Quarters and Presidential Dollars. Many younger collectors tend to prefer foreign coins or other NCLT gold and silver. Not only that, many newer collectors are not coming into the hobby from checking change like Baby Boomers and those before them, they're coming into the hobby for other reasons such as a desire to invest in precious metals. Even in 2019 and pre-COVID 2020, most people who are hunting W quarters aren't people newly interested in coins, they're already established collectors or coin roll hunters. Go to NYC area coin shows and you'll see a lot of Russian dealers who got into the precious metals and jewelry business first before coins.

Even the US Mint understands that this hobby is Baby Boomer dominated and a lot of American collectors think of modern coins as junk, otherwise why do they keep reissuing classic designs and why do we have classic designs on the ASE, AGE, APdE and AGB?

cladking · July 17, 2020 6:42AM

@olympicsos said:
American coin collectors have too much of a bias towards classic coins and is Baby Boomer dominated. What is going to happen is that popular series such as Morgan Dollars are going to collapse in value and go into a decades long slump like classic commemoratives. Morgan Dollars, Buffalo Nickels, Mercury Dimes, Lincoln Cents etc. just don't cut it for Millennial and Generation Z. Even State Quarters doesn't really cut it for Millennial and Generation Z collectors, if State Quarters really brought in people to the hobby, you'd see a lot more interest in ATB Quarters and Presidential Dollars. Many younger collectors tend to prefer foreign coins or other NCLT gold and silver. Not only that, many newer collectors are not coming into the hobby from checking change like Baby Boomers and those before them, they're coming into the hobby for other reasons such as a desire to invest in precious metals. Even in 2019 and pre-COVID 2020, most people who are hunting W quarters aren't people newly interested in coins, they're already established collectors or coin roll hunters. Go to NYC area coin shows and you'll see a lot of Russian dealers who got into the precious metals and jewelry business first before coins.

Even the US Mint understands that this hobby is Baby Boomer dominated and a lot of American collectors think of modern coins as junk, otherwise why do they keep reissuing classic designs and why do we have classic designs on the ASE, AGE, APdE and AGB?

Nothing you say is untrue but it's all based on perspective and perspective is as fluid over time as demographics. One of the reasons that newer collectors eschew Morgans is that most desirable coins are extremely expensive due to high demand. If prices drop you'll see more newbies interested in them. Of course there must be a dip in any specific coin that has increasing supply ()from the sale of collections) and decreasing demand but this doesn't apply to coins which maintain more demand than supply. If a coin's demand drops from 100 to ten and only two exist the price might be unaffected. The price can even increase if those desiring the coin have more disposable income. Most demand is not so specific so can affect almost any coin due to its date, mint mark, and appearance.

Conversely if demand is very low for a coin it can be very difficult to see the demand. Demand is only visible through its action on price so coins that have always had low prices can masquerade as being common. There will be a lot of changes in the hobby and the marketplace between now and twenty years from now when few baby boomers are still acquiring coins. These changes are not so predictable as they may seem because most of the events that will determine this future have not yet occurred.

ShadyDave · July 17, 2020 7:17AM

@olympicsos said:
What is going to happen is that popular series such as Morgan Dollars are going to collapse in value and go into a decades long slump like classic commemoratives. Morgan Dollars, Buffalo Nickels, Mercury Dimes, Lincoln Cents etc. just don't cut it for Millennial and Generation Z.

So the most popular US series are just going to collapse? From what? What evidence do you have that those series you noted above "just dont cut it for Millenials and Gen Z"? I'm a millenial and I actively collect MS-FB Mercury dimes and I have seen prices going UP the last 6 months. I think Morgan dollars are expensive for what they are, but the demand is there and that is undeniable.

I also actively collect world silver coins like C.A.R, Peru, Cuba, China and many others. While I think some world coins are undervalued and some US coins are overvalued, there is no apocalypse occurring.

olympicsos · July 17, 2020 8:08AM

What will happen is that as Baby Boomers retire, they either sell their collections or when they pass away, the kids who have little to no interest in coins end up selling the coins or even worse depositing the low grade coins in the bank. Once all the classic coins owned by people from the Silent Generation, Baby Boomers and Gen X come on to the market, prices will drop. Common date MS 63 Morgans definitely will be worth the same amount of money as common modern silver dollar commems. Most millennials and Gen Z folks simply aren't interested in coins in very large numbers. They're more interested in traveling the world, work, and paying an arm and a leg to live in urban centers like NYC. Even when millennials were kids, you were an outlier if you collected coins. It won't be a sharp collapse like the coin market in 1989, it will be a slow and gradual burn where people won't even know that a lot of stuff is coming to market until it's too late.

olympicsos · July 17, 2020 8:14AM

delete

Zoins · July 17, 2020 8:17AM

It’s the limited number of kings of course

It is the hobby of kings after all!

Zoins · July 17, 2020 8:18AM

@olympicsos said:
What will happen is that as Baby Boomers retire, they either sell their collections or when they pass away, the kids who have little to no interest in coins end up selling the coins or even worse depositing the low grade coins in the bank. Once all the classic coins owned by people from the Silent Generation, Baby Boomers and Gen X come on to the market, prices will drop. Common date MS 63 Morgans definitely will be worth the same amount of money as common modern silver dollar commems. Most millennials and Gen Z folks simply aren't interested in coins in very large numbers. They're more interested in traveling the world, work, and paying an arm and a leg to live in urban centers like NYC. Even when millennials were kids, you were an outlier if you collected coins. It won't be a sharp collapse like the coin market in 1989, it will be a slow and gradual burn where people won't even know that a lot of stuff is coming to market until it's too late.

Perhaps it will be in 1950s collector cars?

ShaunBC5 · July 17, 2020 8:48AM

I’m a millennial (barely, but I’ve given up fighting it) and as a group, we keep getting set back, financially.
On the whole, we can’t compete with the purchasing power of established boomers, especially when it comes to discretionary/hobby items.
When wealth and coins start to be transferred to us, I think there will be a simultaneous softening in prices and increase in interest, not to mention an increased ability to seek hobby items.
I know lots of guys who might be interested in coins if paying bills wasn’t such a concern (and these are professionals with professional degrees). Inheriting a ready-made starter collection, or just money, and coin prices being more reasonable across the board will stoke new interest in the hobby and keep it alive for a long time.

TurtleCat · July 17, 2020 8:58AM

I posted a thread yesterday about Abby Zechman, a young lady who was YN of the year recently. Anyway, she has talked a lot about getting younger people involved in coins. What’s interesting is that her initial interests were in foreign coins and hobo nickels. But as she learned more and got exposed to more she found her niche in large cents.

Sure, the pricing of things will go up and down as it always has but there will always be some level of demand for historical coins and even common coins. All it takes is time to capture someone’s imagination and connect it with history.

TwoSides2aCoin · July 17, 2020 9:00AM

I watched in horror. "W" mint quarters ? Okay.

Zoins · July 17, 2020 9:03AM

@TurtleCat said:
I posted a thread yesterday about Abby Zechman, a young lady who was YN of the year recently. Anyway, she has talked a lot about getting younger people involved in coins. What’s interesting is that her initial interests were in foreign coins and hobo nickels. But as she learned more and got exposed to more she found her niche in large cents.

Sure, the pricing of things will go up and down as it always has but there will always be some level of demand for historical coins and even common coins. All it takes is time to capture someone’s imagination and connect it with history.

She's a hobo nickel carver too. I wonder if she's into carving large cents?

TwoSides2aCoin · July 17, 2020 9:06AM

This guy almost compels me to start a you tube channel from inside a coin shop.

1630Boston · July 17, 2020 9:08AM

@TwoSides2aCoin said:
This guy almost compels me to start a you tube channel from inside a coin shop.

Why Not?

Treynok · July 17, 2020 9:22AM

@TwoSides2aCoin said:
This guy almost compels me to start a you tube channel from inside a coin shop.

I would watch, that's not saying much though Honestly it would be great to see a shop owner side of things in the hobby / industry. Especially for someone newer like myself.

TurtleCat · July 17, 2020 10:12AM

@Zoins said:

@TurtleCat said:
I posted a thread yesterday about Abby Zechman, a young lady who was YN of the year recently. Anyway, she has talked a lot about getting younger people involved in coins. What’s interesting is that her initial interests were in foreign coins and hobo nickels. But as she learned more and got exposed to more she found her niche in large cents.

Sure, the pricing of things will go up and down as it always has but there will always be some level of demand for historical coins and even common coins. All it takes is time to capture someone’s imagination and connect it with history.

She's a hobo nickel carver too. I wonder if she's into carving large cents?

You never know. Some of the ones I’ve seen are so cruddy that why not?

asheland · July 17, 2020 10:29AM

I like Ben the coin geek on Youtube...

This Is What's Killing Coin Collecting Hobby!

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