With all the frenzied Covid-19 quarantine 1980's buying ~ is it a trap?
MLBdays
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~We all know the over supply of the card market in the 80's and 90's ~ tons of unopened in warehouses..... is this recent wave of buying a trap only to be flooded with more pent up supply?
With all the frenzied Covid-19 quarantine 1980's buying ~ is it a trap?
This is a public poll: others will see what you voted for.
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Comments
This a very timely poll question ~great one~ I anticipate reading some interesting responses.... I need to think a bit and plagiarize from others before I commit and risk looking like an ass.
. lol.
I wanted to vote YES, but think prices may drop a bit, I also think there's a renewed interest in collecting (especially 80's and early 90's stuff) that will keep the hobby from "coming back to earth".
I know one thing for certain, the PSA 10 pop on the 1990-91 Fleer #26 Michael Jordan will increase by at least 25% by Christmas. It stands at 2929 today. I would have said 50% higher but with 6-9 month bulk turn arounds, that's not going to happen.
It sold for $300 for six weeks and imagine how many people saw easy $$.
I could see this happening for lots of cards from the 80's/90's, that weren't really worth subbing or at the very least an afterthought. The market could get pretty flooded for certain sets that produce easy 10s.
Some prices have already come back down to Earth. You won't be getting $300 for your PSA 10 '87 Topps McGwire anymore.
It's a time-honored tradition here on CU to talk about and speculate about the existing population of unopened product. They're very enjoyable threads (at least to me) so when a good one really gets going I look forward to it.
I remember about 5 years ago when Reed was still with BBCE he commented that junk wax stuff would never be in short-supply. He pointed to the amount of factory-sealed '87 Topps cases BBCE had and that they weren't even buying any anymore because they couldn't sell at $140/each. I'd be interested to get Reed (or BBCE's new Reed) take on what's out there for sealed '87 Topps now.
Arthur
One thing I do know is ...I'm sticking to Topps Tiffany and Traded Tiffany variations depending on the rookie card and when it was issued..... and I can see some very explosive moves in the O-pee-chee product especially RC 's of '83 Gwynn and Bonds '87 of course..... and I may start buying some vintage o-pee-chee too as the o-pee-chee revolution gains steam. I've passed on some gorgeous '71 o-pee-chee's in the past b/c interest wasnt real strong..... I think the future includes o-pee-chee in a big way ..... just my gut feeling. It's relatively low populations are just too inviting. This hobby is expanding & More collectors means more saturation.
I’m sure prices will come down but not near pre-pandemic levels and the forum troll will come back here and claim victory.
I answered no because I want the real winners out of all of this to be CLCT shareholders.
I remember they said that 1978, 79, 80 Topps wax was way over produced and will never amount to anything... just checked and these just sold:
1978 topps wax box. $2950.00
1979 topps wax box $2375.00
1980 topps wax box. $2800.00
So much for over production.... Sure a lot was produced but you can't predict demand and the fact that people love to rip open packs so it's strong demand over time plus a finite supply which is always decreasing over time.
chaz
I was chastised in the early 2000's for collecting 1978 Topps. Right here on this forum. The same damn mistakes keep getting made and it's really enjoyable to watch LOL.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
There's got to be some sort of scientific law that applies to this. People that love the sets rip wax for years on the cheap because they simply love the set. Eventually though, the supply runs out, just like the supply will run out on everything and then you see an influx of people interested in the set because it's valuable.
I think the real canary for this stuff is 1986 Topps. It's a popular set in that it was part of the hobby boom generation of child collectors and it's condition-sensitive but the checklist is just a flaming bag of critter poo. What '86 Topps does will be a good indicator of what some of the more overproduced junk wax sets do (in time), I think.
Arthur
Football still has some growth. 81 - 89 has at least one and in many cases multiple HOFers RCS (89 Score) in boxes.
I agree about what you're saying about the '86 set. I also think the '87 set will be the other over produced set to go up. The wood grain is popular and it also has some decent rookie cards.
1987 Topps is sort of at the other end of the spectrum from '86 Topps, though. With three cards already selling for $100+ in PSA 10 it is already being ripped for value stage.
I'm more curious about the 1988-1991 years.
Arthur
It’s not just unopened that increases supply. I’m sure my collection is like many others here - I have lots (and lots) of 85 McGwires, 84 Mattinglys, 83 Boggs, Gwynn, Sandberg, etc. that I ripped as a kid and never slabbed cuz they ain’t 10s and I never had an intention to sell. But if prices rise on 8s and 9s, they’re all on a flight to California.
I think its more of a price correction that was due. Honestly, how is cards of HOF players like Ripken, Boggs, Sandberg, Griffey and potentially McGwire, Clemens, Bonds etc going for what they were going for and cards of guys that have never played a game in MLB going for more? Sure, the new is more expensive to start with, but was kind of silly when Griffey Non UD rookies could have been had for under $3 back in January.
I dont expect them to rise much more and even a slide back a little is possible.
Steve
I agree with your logic to a certain extent but there's also more money in the post-Trout era of the hobby than everything that came before it combined. There's probably a laundry list of things we could come up with that "should" sell for more but demand is demand and it's extremely rare for single person to be able to permanently sway it one direction or another.
Arthur