Is 30,000 really a low mintage?
Overdate
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Interesting factoid:
Every P-mint 5 ounce silver quarter has a mintage of less than 30,000.
"Common dates" sell for $130 and up, while the lowest-mintage (14,731) George Rogers Clark can be obtained for about $300.
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To me, 30,000 is far to many for the collecting community......but then I'm wrong and coins I thought I'd pick up when the dust settled I never have and the dust is now a full blown storm.
bob
The question is misplaced.
500 is not a low mintage if only 20 people want it.
1 million is a low mintage if 10 million people want it.
I have an Australian platinum coin with only 350 made. Turns out 350 is a HIGH mintage for that coin. I can't find anyone who wants it at $100 over spot.
Since more than 30,000 people want the coin, the price will be high and the mintage will seem low. If only 15,000 wanted the coin, the supply would exceed demand and the mintage would seem high. I guess it’s all relative.
I disagree, partially, at least. 😉 Granted, “low” and “high” tend to be somewhat relative, as opposed to absolute terms. However in your example above, you were speaking largely about demand, not about the mintages, themselves.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
That is true, because I think that is the prism you must have to establish "high" or "low". Otherwise, what is "high" or "low"? Almost 300,000 1916-D dimes? Very high mintage. But, so...? Are we to argue that the hockey pucks, being lowER mintage has any meaning other than the raw number is lowER? Aren't all U.S. coins "high" mintage? If I'm from Togo, I think I would think so.
But there isn't a clear-cut separation between those who "want it" and those who "don't want it". I doubt that there are 30,000 actual silver eagle collectors that "want" the 2019-S ERP enough to justify the $1000 price. Especially considering there is much less actual collector demand for special finishes than there is for standard uncirculated and proof specimens. That's why the burnished "W" gold and silver eagles are much lower in price than if they were regular bullion coins with the same mintage. And why the 2014-W gold Kennedy half (mintage 74K) goes for near melt.
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I think a low mintage of a specific coin is in relation to previous mintages of the same coin. Makes zero sense to compare it to a different product.
This, being the lowest mintage of a ASE, is correctly defined as having a low mintage......correction...lowest mintage
That's a different question than the one you asked. We know for certain that the mintage is low relative to the demand because the price went up - Economics 101. Value theory would suggest that the demand=supply at the current market price, at least once it stabilizes - Economics 102.
The lowest mintage Lincoln cent (200,000) is the 2018-S reverse proof. It can be readily obtained for less than $20.
Being the lowest mintage in a popular series doesn't necessarily justify a high value.
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I don't think the discussion was about value....it was/is about low mintage.
The Lincoln would get the title for that coin. The ERP has it for the ASE
There are many Lincoln cents with significantly greater mintages than 200,000 pieces.😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
30,000 would be extremely low for an old Coin. But for modern and bullion not low at all.
A lot more people want a 30k coin at $65 than the same coin at $1000+++
30,000 with a survival rate of close to 100% ... not a "low mintage" unless than a lot more than 30,000 people with money want to own one.
I thought the Mint put out there were 99,000 Online users that fateful day 11/14/2019 all trying to buy the same thing took 12 minutes. Now if there were only 20,000 online users?
Fads come and go like the 50-d nickel craze.
30 k is not a low mintage. I believe this recent release they all crazy about will drop a lot in the aftermarket.
The lowest mintage for a series is not exactly the same as a low mintage. My question has more to do with whether 30,000 is really a low mintage (in absolute terms) for a modern coin that has a one-off finish, and that is intended from day one to be a collectible. I don't think 30,000 really is a low mintage in this context, and I don't think that a majority of the demand for the 2019-S ERP is coming from collectors who want one for their sets.
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Ahhhhh....30,000 as an absolute number, no. MANY coins have a lower mintage. But in a series where "low" has been under 100k...and the lowest 30k+, then FOR THIS SERIES (ASE) it is a low mintage.
Compared to the First Spouse Gold coins where a 3000 mintage was considered high there is no comparison ..but here was minimal interest in that issue ...not the same for the ASE
So yes, compared to every other coin ever minted, 30k is not a low mintage
This.
for coins, low mintage (supply) creates demand which typically increases prices.
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I would say no.
Compare and contrast:
The 1995-W silver eagle one ounce silver proof. Key to the series, though arguably a "manufactured" rarity. A mintage of 30,125, of which about 7,500 have been graded 69 or 70 by our hosts and across the street, combined.
In 69 it's a $3,000 coin give or take.
The 1983 Mexico silver Libertad one ounce silver proof. Key to the series, a genuine rarity. A mintage of 998. That's not nine thousand--it's nine hundred. Of which about 25 have been graded 69 or 70 by our hosts and across the street, combined.
In 69 it's a $1,000 coin, give or take.
I understand all of the arguments in favor the eagle over the onza, supply and demand, etc. And ultimately that the "market decides". But just for the sake of comparing mintages and populations, it's a bit of an eye-opener.
--Severian the Lame
Your questions is what series is it for and how many people collect that series period.
For a silver eagle yes
For a gold/platinum eagle no
It is the lowest mintage ASE, but IMO it only matters if you want to complete the complete series of American Silver Eagles. That includes proofs, reverse proofs, and other special finishes. I was unable to buy one from the Mint, would have liked to have one, but will not pay the prices they're asking on eBay
The whole purpose of price discovery is to match the bids/asks. If the coin is $1000 coin, that is the RIGHT price for the demand & supply.
I would rephrase the final line. It is not the asking price on eBay, it is the bid on eBay. The coins are selling at that number, it is the correct number.
But it does sell for $20. There are a LOT of Lincoln cents that sell for under 5 cents. I will agree this much: being the lowest doesn't matter. It is ALWAYS a question of demand. The fact that a 200,000 mintage Lincoln cents has a modest value just means there aren't 500,000 Lincoln collectors.
apples and oranges. I've got an Australian platinum coin with a mintage of 350 that you can have for $300.
Similarities:
1 ounce silver bullion coin
debuted in the 1980s
offered in both uncirculated and proof
issued annually to a large collector base to two North American countries
Differences:
Mexico vs US.
Though Mexico shares a 2,000 mile border with the US, is our 3rd or 2nd largest trading partner, and 36 million US residents identify as full or partly Mexican descent.
But I get your point about a non-silver, non-American, non-ounce coin.
--Severian the Lame
If we start listing low mintage 1 ounce silver bullion coins from around the globe, we're going to find all kinds of odd pricings.
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If you really want one just wait for the secondary market. It will be much lower then.
30k mintage is extremely low (until next year when they only make 29k)
So the real question is how many collect these and want it for their collection and how many just want it to flip it? Looking at the mintage's of ASE in Proof and the different variations since 1986, I would conclude that 30K is a low mintage for the that coin. The numbers are all there.
eBay is the secondary market. I would not expect this coin to become "inexpensive" any time soon. It may be $500 instead of $1000...or it might be $1500. There are now DEALERS paying $800 and over for the coin. One major dealer is planning on KEEPING half of the coins he has for future appreciation.
People really need to let go of their biases and be a little more objective.
Won't happen.
They do this about once per decade to create excitement. There is no advantage to them selling only 30k of a coin at $66. The Mint quite likely lost money on this coin.
As others have said it's all relative based on supply/demand.
A coin could have a 10 mintage, if demand doesn't outweigh supply it's irrelevant.
This mintage is the rarest of the series so far. People want it. Therefore it's a low mintage based on the demand for it. That's a fact presently. Maybe things will change and the price will crash, who knows.
A mintage of 1000 or less is slightly interesting. 30000 is enough for anyone to be able to buy one at will, almost irrespective of what it is, provided that’s still the extant population.
that's not true at all. it all depends on the specific coin and how many people want it.
No, it's true. It's probably even true for a coin with a mintage of 1000. There's always a certain percentage of coins that are "between owners" and therefore available.
But, while it's true, it doesn't really tell me anything. There are $100k coins that are available at almost any time also. There are also $500 coins that are hardly ever available.
I used to think so. Let's see, there's over 350 Million folks in American. Surely there must be 10% coin collectors like me, 35 million all chasing a Comem. with 5000 mintage. No so.
Sometime I feel Collectors must be less than 1%.
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current prices are being driven up by flippers,not end users
not sure if you'll ever get one at a lower price than $1000. when people start grading them, price should keep going up or at least in the $1k mark
ill edit this for you:
30k mintage is too low if 60k dealers are trying to flip it
Minor Variety Trade dollar's with chop marks set:
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It's unlikely that 60k dealers are trying to flip these. More reasonable assumption- 60k wannabe dealers flipping these.
That's true, but the market will decide. Currently respectable dealers are buying boxed coins in the 1k+ range. They understand the market better than anyone and they are buying at that level.
As more get graded, it’s likely that more will become available for sale, which could easily cause a drop in price. I think it’s unrealistic to think that ”not sure if you'll ever get one at a lower price than $1000”.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
How many of these coins do we think realistically made it into collectors hands at issue price? The large number of people who collect the series where probably trying to buy at issue price. If we knew that number subtract that number from total mintage we get total available(for now). Are there 15k available in the aftermarket or 20k? 10k? Nobody really knows for now.
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