Options
Strictly from a value appreciation perspective
lightningboy
Posts: 1,483 ✭✭✭
Which of the following pretty comparable options would you choose and why?
- 2000 Bowman Chrome Brady PSA 10
- 2003 Topps Chrome Lebron PSA 10
- 2011 Topps Update Trout PSA 10 (2 of these)
Thanks, Tom
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Comments
Fun question
I think I would go with Trout (x2) over the other two; I do think baseball cards will continue to reign supreme. The desire to have the rookie card of a generation which will see increased demand and likely price appreciation as he gets closer to enshrinement as those with Registry sets need (and drive demand for) the 10’s.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
I’m going with Brady. Football has surpassed baseball as America’s favorite sport, plus popular collecting taste is that chrome/shiny trumps non chrome.
Yaz Master Set
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Also collecting Andre Tippett, Patriots Greats' RCs, Dwight Evans, 1964 Venezuelan Topps, 1974 Topps Red Sox
Brady. I have won just as many playoff games and championships as Trout and Lebron has become a little too political lately. I could see him doing something to push certain segments of society away from collecting him.
Brady. Hard to knock his accomplishments.
Brady is a guarantee compared to the others
Tom Brady. The guy has 6 rings, and when he retires at the age of 75, he'll probably have a few more rings.
1.) Brady, 2.) LeBron, 3.) Trout
Over 4,400 Trout PSA 10's probably another 1500 of these waiting in the grading backlog
Over 1,900 LeBron PSA 10's
Almost 1000 Brady PSA 10's
Obviously population alone doesn't decide it, but I get the sense that there are still a few thousand more Trout Topps cards out there and perhaps maybe a hundred or so of each out there of LeBron and Brady. You really can't go wrong with either the Brady or the LeBron. I think Trout is amazing, but for me a mass produced, mass distributed product like the 2011 Topps Update will yield many more Trout PSA 10's. Topps Update was in hobby shops, Walmart, Target, and almost all of the other major retailers (Michaels, Hobby Lobby, Barnes & Nobles etc.). The Topps Chrome and Bowman Chrome was way smaller production.
Championships matter too, LeBron and Brady have them, Trout does not, and maybe he doesn't get one, although I hope.
First, I own none of these cards. Just want to be clear about that.
I am not knocking Tom Brady or LeBron James but their careers are for all intents and purposes over. Sure, they’re still great players but how many more years each? 3? 5? I don’t know how much more their legacies can grow at this point. Another ring would be par for the course at this point.
I, too, think James is too polarizing too have enduring popularity/collectibility and he also disappointed a lot of fans along the way in Cleveland, Miami, Cleveland and now LA.
Tom Brady is an all time great. Maybe the greatest QB ever. I still don’t know if that’s enough to carry the day since it’s based more on win loss rather than statistics. If you don’t think it matters, recall the Peyton-Brady debates and the Marino-Montana’s that preceded them. (I am Brady, Montana myself but the debates had some validity and merit). Plus, I don’t think football cards have quite the same depth of collectors that baseball cards do. You need multiple buyers to drive prices higher.
I also think the fact that you are getting TWO Mike Trout rookies matters big time. Plus, a decade of a career (or more) is possible and even likely for Trout, who will enter his 10th season next year at the tender age of 28. Therefore, I think it’s premature to write off his entire postseason career at age 27; some of their bad contracts will come off eventually and things can turn quickly when a team spends wisely. And again, he’s just now hitting his prime (scary, right?) and has already compiled ridiculous stats:
In conclusion, I am just guessing like the rest of you. But remember that whatever Trouts goes up is doubled since you’ll have two of his cards.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Baseball is KING!
For a more detailed analysis; see above.
1989 Upper Deck card #1 $550.00 card and you can still buy CASES of this product.
Forget about supply. It's ALL about demand!
I'm not a fan of Brady or the Pats, yet I think that's the obvious choice. When in doubt, go with the player from the northeast since it seems that's where the biggest collecting dollars are.
Wheaties makes a strong case for Trout, BUT, he made the case for Brady stronger IMO. Brady's legacy is set in stone, its done. He may add too said legacy, but his place in the HOF is saved. If Trout's career ends today, he will slowly be forgotten or at least in the category of what could have been. I HATE the patriots with a passion, but you cant take anything away from them. Plus let me ask you this, how many Brady RC's are out there compared to how many Trout RC's are available?? As far as LeBron is concerned, he is not worthy to hold Jordans jock strap. Only my opinion of course, because really, all these posts are pretty good
Trout is his key card. Brady’s key card for the registry is the Sp Authentic, his most expensive is the Contenders auto. More upside to the Trout.
Trout's king will always be the '09 Bowman Chrome auto. I realize you're matching up price-wise I think that's an x-factor in this. Trout 2011 cards are backseat to 2009.
All that aside, for me, It's a mortal lock Brady. Six rings and this year is looking like a seriously decent shot at #7. And he still playing at an elite level and is playing next year, too. Just stupid good. You know he's not bowing out until he has every record there is. Brady will be football Jordan.
Arthur
Of course Brady is the most secure option, but if Trout stays healthy and plays well for the rest of his career. his cards should be a better investment.
High risk, high reward here. I thought that was what the OP meant.
I would definitely go Brady, Lebron, Trout. Championships reign. Trout is phenomenal, but needs some post season success.
The tough part is that Brady and Trout will be measured by different standards. Trout will be an inner circle HOFer with the elite. His stats are just off the charts. Brady will have most stat records but the Super Bowls are what people measure players in football by, especially quarterbacks, and the difference between Brady and #2 might end up being huge. As in, when listing the all-time best players, Brady will be sitting alone at the top in his own tier.
Tough call. Lebron isn't even an option to me because I'd rather go Jordan in basketball.
Arthur
Sports is about winning and Brady has won the most. I don't think we will ever see any QB do what Brady has done.
Plus I see Brady having more post-career pub than either Lebron or Trout. I live in LA and Lebron is not even a topic outside of the ESPN radio shows.
The GOAT (Goofiest Of All Time)
Sort of drives home the point.
I can see Lebron doing or saying something very goofy or stupid to tarnish his image like keeping the cellphone versus destroying it.
I would say Trout potentially has the largest upswing percentage wise if he can just get a ring. But then you are putting your eggs in an entire franchise not just Trout.
Have you heard the recent Lebron “Taco Tuesday” bit he did. That was Lebron saying something stupid. Guess he lost his trademark attempt too.
I am going to go with Trout on this one. The other 2 are near the end of their careers and even if they do win more titles, it will not have a huge impact. They have already won multiple...
Trout on the other hand, plays in partial obscurity on the west coast. He has many more years accomplish things he has never done. I was hoping for baseball sake (and the value of my 2011 update card) that he was going to move out east. I would like to see him play more and make it to the post season.
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
Sounds like the majority agree on Trout/Brady......so why not just invest in both!!!
I mean, in all honesty, we're basically splitting hairs. You're not going to lose money on any of them so it probably will come down to macro variables like which sport is more popular in 30 years and malarkey like that.
Arthur
Odds are that in 30 years I won't be around to find out or best case I can't remember who I am much less Tom Brady or Mike Trout.
Thanks for all the opinions so far. I definitely like Brady and Trout more than James, but I am a bit surprised that James hasn't received more backing.
This was my real reason for posting the question: I have 6 of the Trouts and only 1 Brady and 1 James. Was lucky to get all of these about 2 years ago. I was considering trading/selling 2 of the Trouts to finance another Brady or James. But, I guess for the moment I will at least wait until the awards are announced and see what it might do if/when Trout wins a 3rd.
Thx, Tom
Looks like Trout will need surgery on his foot. They say it is minor but they also said Luck had a minor calf strain.
Sit tight lightningboy!
You'll make more money on the Trout's in the long run. If you want to add some Brady's that's a solid decision, but hang on to those Trout's!!
Posters here are confusing who's good/great and who's won championships with who's potentially going to go up in value the most. Few collect Basketball, a bunch collect Football, MANY collect baseball.
Brady is the safest "investment" but he's got to quit winning SB's sometime! His cards might even go down (a little) if a guy like Mahomes (NOT KIRK COUSINS, THAT'S FOR SURE) lights up the league for the next decade.
If Trout gets hurt his cards won't go up in value and will probably drop. If he keeps going strong, he's going to EXPLODE!
Those Trout are keepers!
1) Brady - Arguably the GOAT. Still going somehow.
2) Trout - Has a ton of upside still, we may have not have even seen peak Trout yet
3) Lebron - A ton of people have soured on him. You hear way less Lebron vs. MJ for GOAT convos nowadays. I think the market has firmly decided it's MJ.
Currently Collecting:
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Will it matter when the population for 2011 Topps Update Trout reaches 15,000-20,000?
All fair points, except I think you underestimate how many people collect football cards now. I’ve noticed a big spike in the last 5 years.
Yaz Master Set
#1 Gino Cappelletti master set
#1 John Hannah master set
Also collecting Andre Tippett, Patriots Greats' RCs, Dwight Evans, 1964 Venezuelan Topps, 1974 Topps Red Sox
At least for modern football, demand is definitely beating supply like a dog.
Trying to make two points; Baseball cards are collected much more than football, and sort of along the same lines when the next quarterback comes along the demand for the last guy seems to drop.
I remember when it was Marino, Montana, Favre and so on. Brady will probably never be a money loser, but I would say that if his prices haven't peaked they should be close. Unless he plays for a few more years and keeps winning. That would seem doubtful imo.
If Trout can avoid serious injury, his cards should EASILY be the ones "Strictly from a value appreciation perspective" to collect.