@shish said:
An important fact that has not been mentioned is that many certified coins, particularly a series like Liberty Seated dollars, are not sent to CAC because they have no chance of being approved. This is why I believe that more than 50% of higher grade (EF & Higher) certified Liberty Seated dollars will not be CAC approved. In fact, CAC data proves that the approval rate for Seated dollars is less than 50% for the total number of coins submitted. Therefore, if you add the number of certified examples that are not sent in due to their quality the CAC approval rate for this series is well below 50%, perhaps only 25%. If you exclude the common dates the approval rate falls even lower.
What are you saying ? PCGS and NGC systematically overgrade Liberty Seated Dollars? CAC doesn’t like them? Not following your point.
Some refer to overgraded slabs as Coffins. I like to think of them as Happy Coins.
@jmlanzaf said:
I don't think a high percentage of cons in collections have been to CAC. I'm quite sure a high percentage of coins at major auction houses have been too CAC.
and you should not use bullion $20s as the test case doit $1000 could, which includes common dates $20s in 64 or less and even 65s to a degree
I have sent 100+ coins to GC and recently (last year) some to Legend auctions coming up that never went to CAC while I was the owner.
What type/price range?
500 to 8 k
Type matters.
I also wouldn't count a weekly GC auction as a major auction. I doubt all the coins in a Heritage weekly auction go to CAC. But I bet everything of a certain type or value in a Heritage FUN auction has been to CAC.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
@jmlanzaf said:
I don't think a high percentage of cons in collections have been to CAC. I'm quite sure a high percentage of coins at major auction houses have been too CAC.
and you should not use bullion $20s as the test case doit $1000 could, which includes common dates $20s in 64 or less and even 65s to a degree
I have sent 100+ coins to GC and recently (last year) some to Legend auctions coming up that never went to CAC while I was the owner.
What type/price range?
500 to 8 k
Type matters.
I also wouldn't count a weekly GC auction as a major auction. I doubt all the coins in a Heritage weekly auction go to CAC. But I bet everything of a certain type or value in a Heritage FUN auction has been to CAC.
There are a number of different considerations involved, but as written, your bet is a losing one.
In general, if people wish to make assumptions about uncertified coins of certain types and values having already been submitted to a grading company, they will be right on many occasions. And they will be wrong on many others. Likewise, if people wish to make assumptions about non-CAC coins of certain types and values having already been submitted to CAC, they will be right on many occasions. And they will be wrong on many others.
Some people prefer to play it safe, make such assumptions and eliminate downside. In the process, they might also eliminate upside. Others prefer not to play it safe, not make such assumptions and not eliminate upside. In the process, they might also subject themselves to downside. Each choice offers advantages and disadvantages.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@Ronyahski said:
What are you saying ? PCGS and NGC systematically overgrade Liberty Seated Dollars? CAC doesn’t like them? Not >following your point.
Saints have similar issues but they are date/mint related.
Imagine if your set was so over graded that every coin that did get a CAC sticker could be a guaranteed upgrade if cracked out.
Now imagine what that would do to the population of CAC stickers in that set.
Now imagine JA doesn't want that so he makes more "C" coins into "B" coins so they won't automatically upgrade.
The harder JA tries to put the brakes on, the faster his stickered coins disappear.
(BTW...I'm not trashing TPG's or JA, It's just that the two can't be perfectly on the same sheet all the time)
@shish said:
An important fact that has not been mentioned is that many certified coins, particularly a series like Liberty Seated dollars, are not sent to CAC because they have no chance of being approved. This is why I believe that more than 50% of higher grade (EF & Higher) certified Liberty Seated dollars will not be CAC approved. In fact, CAC data proves that the approval rate for Seated dollars is less than 50% for the total number of coins submitted. Therefore, if you add the number of certified examples that are not sent in due to their quality the CAC approval rate for this series is well below 50%, perhaps only 25%. If you exclude the common dates the approval rate falls even lower.
I fished out some seated dollars in the mid 3 figures with CAC but then the pond dried up and according to eBay has not yet been refilled.
Oh well.
Ronyahski how did you come up with those two questions? Regardless, I'll attempt to answer your questions.
PCGS and NGC systematically overgrade Liberty Seated Dollars?
I said nothing about PCGS or NGC grading. First, CAC does not grade coins. Second, CAC criteria for approval are much different than the grading criteria used by the grading services. Anyone that has submitted a significant number of coins to CAC would know this is true.
CAC doesn’t like them?
I know for a fact that JA loves Liberty Seated dollars.
@shish said:
Ronyahski how did you come up with those two questions? Regardless, I'll attempt to answer your questions.
PCGS and NGC systematically overgrade Liberty Seated Dollars?
I said nothing about PCGS or NGC grading. First, CAC does not grade coins. Second, CAC criteria for approval are much different than the grading criteria used by the grading services. Anyone that has submitted a significant number of coins to CAC would know this is true.
2. CAC doesn’t like them?
I know for a fact that JA loves Liberty Seated dollars.
OK, we can call it a day here, because I still have no idea what the point is that you initially tried to make, and you only confused matters more with this answer.
Some refer to overgraded slabs as Coffins. I like to think of them as Happy Coins.
@Ronyahski said:
OK, we can call it a day here, because I still have no idea what the point is that you initially tried to make, and you only confused matters more with this answer.
I'm glad that I wasn't the only one left scratching my head.
I'm guessing surface quality on Liberty Seated dollars gets a free pass from TPGs and not from JA. The grades may be fine, but if they were Morgans they would bag?
I think many CAC coins (A coins) are cracked out submitted for higher grade, especially if owner already feels coin has potential.
Or in another instance dealer a sees or is offered a CAC coin thinks wow perhaps here’s one crack and put on slab upgrade bus. This is especially evident with A Coins. All the player is out if no upgrade is fees. This most likely where CAC premium in sheet not that much higher. So it no longer has sticker / no big deal.
Certainly there are novice individuals who don’t know how to grade need somebody hold their hand making a decision but experienced opportunists can spot the stickered coin on the bourse - they will look at the CAC coin judge crackout / upgrade potential. They are looking make big play - not a bad idea considering how the bids have not been doing so great in areas like Commems (so cheap now - super buying opportunity).
Or dealer b stickers coin now can price it much higher bc CAC bid in sheet (markup basis) considerably higher than non CAC bid.
The reason there's a higher percentage of $1k-$5000 coins sent to the CAC is because those people who collect such expect much. And those who deal in them are aware of this. The market has spoken. The market makers guarantee this.
"OK, we can call it a day here, because I still have no idea what the point is that you initially tried to make, and you only confused matters more with this answer."
Unfortunate that you're unable or unwilling to read and understand my posts, perhaps it's because your mind is already made up.
@SurfinxHI said:
4) I was trying to see if anyone would actually look at combined pop figures for both major TPGs to try and figure out what percentage of coins in that range may have gone to CAC, because that is where the discussion gets real teeth. I think that number is super low. But many of you seem to think it is not. Can this be proved, or is the kool-aid driving the conversation?
Regardless of the true answer, this point is completely off base, since the number of coins submitted is only known by JA at CAC. I look all the time at combined pops of PCGS and NGC, and then the number of coins with CAC stickers. That has absolutely no representation of the number of coins submitted. If anything, it very roughly shows how some coins in certain grades obtain CAC’s at a higher success rates than others. I believe I mentioned a perfect example with the most common date 1904 $20 Liberty graded MS65. Since the pricing differential between those without CAC’s and those with CAC’s is roughly $1,000 - $1,500, so I would think most in that grade would/should have been submitted to CAC. About 12,000 are graded MS65 by the two TPG’s (IGNORING resubmissions), but less than 4% have CAC’s. It’s a BIG mistake to interpret this data in thinking that only a small percentage of these MS65’s have been submitted to CAC.
Wrong. The Liberty Seated study used total coins submitted.
True, but the study compared that to population counts published by PCGS and NGC. Since there are alot of coins submitted multiple times, i.e. cracked, submitted again (and again), etc., those pop counts are very likely to be too high, maybe by many 10's of %. So the true amount of Liberty Seated coins already submitted to CAC is much higher than the 20-25% listed in the study. Plus, since alot of the coins in the PCGS and NGC pop counts are lower grade and having values that are not worth a CAC submission, those with ≥$500 value, I would think well over 50% of the total amount of these have been submitted to CAC.
Best, SH
As I stated, 26% of Mint State coins have been submitted, so high value coin submissions is still low.
Yes, population numbers are inflated. Not as much, but so are CAC numbers.
You’d have to make grandiose assumptions about the lack of integrity of the numbers to conclude, as you did, that a majority of coins have been submitted to CAC.
Not so grandiose assumptions, but instead pragmatic assumptions understanding how the crack out game is played. For that reason the study in LSCC journal is in my view, substantially underestimates the numbers for XF on up that have been submitted to CAC.
@keets said: In other words, in deciding which coins to submit for the upgrade, the value of the CAC sticker is limited.
why is it that members choose to state things in absolute terms as though they are the possessor of truth and the final opinion on something??
Well when we (collective forum members) repeatedly post examples of coins that received green beans before and after the upgrade, what do you expect people to think? CAC has even take the position that a gold sticker must meet CAC green sticker requirements for the higher up grade which necessarily means that some coins that will upgrade will be missed and could be just miss green beans for the next grade up. As such, my statement is factually accurate. With that said, by all means please offer me all of your upgrade candidates with green beans for the current grade level money.
@SurfinxHI said:
4) I was trying to see if anyone would actually look at combined pop figures for both major TPGs to try and figure out what percentage of coins in that range may have gone to CAC, because that is where the discussion gets real teeth. I think that number is super low. But many of you seem to think it is not. Can this be proved, or is the kool-aid driving the conversation?
Regardless of the true answer, this point is completely off base, since the number of coins submitted is only known by JA at CAC. I look all the time at combined pops of PCGS and NGC, and then the number of coins with CAC stickers. That has absolutely no representation of the number of coins submitted. If anything, it very roughly shows how some coins in certain grades obtain CAC’s at a higher success rates than others. I believe I mentioned a perfect example with the most common date 1904 $20 Liberty graded MS65. Since the pricing differential between those without CAC’s and those with CAC’s is roughly $1,000 - $1,500, so I would think most in that grade would/should have been submitted to CAC. About 12,000 are graded MS65 by the two TPG’s (IGNORING resubmissions), but less than 4% have CAC’s. It’s a BIG mistake to interpret this data in thinking that only a small percentage of these MS65’s have been submitted to CAC.
Wrong. The Liberty Seated study used total coins submitted.
True, but the study compared that to population counts published by PCGS and NGC. Since there are alot of coins submitted multiple times, i.e. cracked, submitted again (and again), etc., those pop counts are very likely to be too high, maybe by many 10's of %. So the true amount of Liberty Seated coins already submitted to CAC is much higher than the 20-25% listed in the study. Plus, since alot of the coins in the PCGS and NGC pop counts are lower grade and having values that are not worth a CAC submission, those with ≥$500 value, I would think well over 50% of the total amount of these have been submitted to CAC.
Best, SH
As I stated, 26% of Mint State coins have been submitted, so high value coin submissions is still low.
Yes, population numbers are inflated. Not as much, but so are CAC numbers.
You’d have to make grandiose assumptions about the lack of integrity of the numbers to conclude, as you did, that a majority of coins have been submitted to CAC.
Not so grandiose assumptions, but instead pragmatic assumptions understanding how the crack out game is played. For that reason the study in LSCC journal is in my view, substantially underestimates the numbers for XF on up that have been submitted to CAC.
Best, SH
For your assumption to hold true, that a majority of Slabbed Liberty Seated coins have been submitted to CAC, you would have to conclude that approximately 144,000 out of the 244,000 coins in the population reports are illegitimate certification numbers. I would call that grandiose.
And this does not really even come close to the OPs original posit whether a much higher percentage has been submitted.
Some refer to overgraded slabs as Coffins. I like to think of them as Happy Coins.
cameonut2011, I won't argue with you because it's just not worth it. you've looked past my original point and are now discussing something well beyond what I said. enjoy yourself.
Comments
What are you saying ? PCGS and NGC systematically overgrade Liberty Seated Dollars? CAC doesn’t like them? Not following your point.
In other words, in deciding which coins to submit for the upgrade, the value of the CAC sticker is limited.
why is it that members choose to state things in absolute terms as though they are the possessor of truth and the final opinion on something??
Type matters.
I also wouldn't count a weekly GC auction as a major auction. I doubt all the coins in a Heritage weekly auction go to CAC. But I bet everything of a certain type or value in a Heritage FUN auction has been to CAC.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
There are a number of different considerations involved, but as written, your bet is a losing one.
In general, if people wish to make assumptions about uncertified coins of certain types and values having already been submitted to a grading company, they will be right on many occasions. And they will be wrong on many others. Likewise, if people wish to make assumptions about non-CAC coins of certain types and values having already been submitted to CAC, they will be right on many occasions. And they will be wrong on many others.
Some people prefer to play it safe, make such assumptions and eliminate downside. In the process, they might also eliminate upside. Others prefer not to play it safe, not make such assumptions and not eliminate upside. In the process, they might also subject themselves to downside. Each choice offers advantages and disadvantages.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Saints have similar issues but they are date/mint related.
Imagine if your set was so over graded that every coin that did get a CAC sticker could be a guaranteed upgrade if cracked out.
Now imagine what that would do to the population of CAC stickers in that set.
Now imagine JA doesn't want that so he makes more "C" coins into "B" coins so they won't automatically upgrade.
The harder JA tries to put the brakes on, the faster his stickered coins disappear.
(BTW...I'm not trashing TPG's or JA, It's just that the two can't be perfectly on the same sheet all the time)
My Saint Set
I fished out some seated dollars in the mid 3 figures with CAC but then the pond dried up and according to eBay has not yet been refilled.
Oh well.
Ronyahski how did you come up with those two questions? Regardless, I'll attempt to answer your questions.
I said nothing about PCGS or NGC grading. First, CAC does not grade coins. Second, CAC criteria for approval are much different than the grading criteria used by the grading services. Anyone that has submitted a significant number of coins to CAC would know this is true.
I know for a fact that JA loves Liberty Seated dollars.
OK, we can call it a day here, because I still have no idea what the point is that you initially tried to make, and you only confused matters more with this answer.
I'm glad that I wasn't the only one left scratching my head.
I'm guessing surface quality on Liberty Seated dollars gets a free pass from TPGs and not from JA. The grades may be fine, but if they were Morgans they would bag?
I think many CAC coins (A coins) are cracked out submitted for higher grade, especially if owner already feels coin has potential.
Or in another instance dealer a sees or is offered a CAC coin thinks wow perhaps here’s one crack and put on slab upgrade bus. This is especially evident with A Coins. All the player is out if no upgrade is fees. This most likely where CAC premium in sheet not that much higher. So it no longer has sticker / no big deal.
Certainly there are novice individuals who don’t know how to grade need somebody hold their hand making a decision but experienced opportunists can spot the stickered coin on the bourse - they will look at the CAC coin judge crackout / upgrade potential. They are looking make big play - not a bad idea considering how the bids have not been doing so great in areas like Commems (so cheap now - super buying opportunity).
Or dealer b stickers coin now can price it much higher bc CAC bid in sheet (markup basis) considerably higher than non CAC bid.
The reason there's a higher percentage of $1k-$5000 coins sent to the CAC is because those people who collect such expect much. And those who deal in them are aware of this. The market has spoken. The market makers guarantee this.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
"OK, we can call it a day here, because I still have no idea what the point is that you initially tried to make, and you only confused matters more with this answer."
Unfortunate that you're unable or unwilling to read and understand my posts, perhaps it's because your mind is already made up.
Not so grandiose assumptions, but instead pragmatic assumptions understanding how the crack out game is played. For that reason the study in LSCC journal is in my view, substantially underestimates the numbers for XF on up that have been submitted to CAC.
Best, SH
Well when we (collective forum members) repeatedly post examples of coins that received green beans before and after the upgrade, what do you expect people to think? CAC has even take the position that a gold sticker must meet CAC green sticker requirements for the higher up grade which necessarily means that some coins that will upgrade will be missed and could be just miss green beans for the next grade up. As such, my statement is factually accurate. With that said, by all means please offer me all of your upgrade candidates with green beans for the current grade level money.
For your assumption to hold true, that a majority of Slabbed Liberty Seated coins have been submitted to CAC, you would have to conclude that approximately 144,000 out of the 244,000 coins in the population reports are illegitimate certification numbers. I would call that grandiose.
And this does not really even come close to the OPs original posit whether a much higher percentage has been submitted.
As a percentage, not many.
Brian Hodge
Partner, President of Numismatics
Minshull Trading
cameonut2011, I won't argue with you because it's just not worth it. you've looked past my original point and are now discussing something well beyond what I said. enjoy yourself.