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When will 87 topps baseball wax boxes go over $100 per box?
Darin
Posts: 6,392 ✭✭✭✭✭
And I'm not asking if they will, I'm asking when.
A few years ago I thought I had plenty of time to buy several 84 and 85 topps bb wax boxes for cheap money.
Then in Feb. of this year I realized how high 85 boxes were getting, so I bought a FASC box for $190, now I see
a few months later most on ebay are asking between $270-300 per box. And 84 FASC boxes are going for around $180.
Remember when we used to think because of overproduction these boxes would never see those kinds of prices?
Hope you're adjusting your thinking like I am and realize that 86 and 87 topps wax boxes are going higher also, just a
matter of when. I'm guessing 3 years from now they'll be over $100 per box.
0
Comments
1984 and 1985 Topps were overproduced compared to, say, 1981 and 1982... But, I'd estimate there are at least 4x-6x as many 1987 Topps cases produced as 1985... I remember well, the boom the hobby had from the mid-80s to the early 90s, and 1987 was the first year of ridiculous overproduction... BBCE currently offers to buy a 20-box CASE of 1987 Topps for $80.
Eventually, the boxes will reach $100, but I think that will be more the result of inflation than demand outpacing supply.
DesertIceSports.Com
In the year 7569.
Andy
To borrow a Beckett Readers Write regarding the then 1995 Bazooka set which is the same answer:
Not by any time in which you will still be alive. And back then they weren't figuring on buying stuff on Ebay and such...the Internet was very much in its infancy in those days.
Dimes: 54S, 53P, 50P, 49S, 45D+S, 44S, 43D, 41S, 40D+S, 39D+S, 38D+S, 37D+S, 36S, 35D+S, all 16-34's
Quarters: 52S, 47S, 46S, 40S, 39S, 38S, 37D+S, 36D+S, 35D, 34D, 32D+S
74 Topps: 37,38,46,47,48,138,151,193,210,214,223,241,256,264,268,277,289,316,435,552,570,577,592,602,610,654,655
1997 Finest silver: 115, 135, 139, 145, 310
1995 Ultra Gold Medallion Sets: Golden Prospects, HR Kings, On-Base Leaders, Power Plus, RBI Kings, Rising Stars
.
Here ya go Robert.
Funny. That's the first thing I thought of also.
When 84 and 85 topps bb wax boxes were going for $30-40 bucks not that long ago
the year 2525 would have been your answer then also. LOL.
So many more collectors have stashes of '86 and '87 than '84 and '85 you really can't compare the 2. Supply and demand will determine prices for the foreseeable future and supply is high on '86 and '87 product. I have a closet full of the stuff so I hope the price goes high but I'm not counting on it.
Dennis, prices are already going higher on the 86 product, especially FASC, it will go up on the 87 product as well,
mark my words.
86 doesn't even have any key rookies, 87 does have Barry Bonds and Larkin, as well as Bo and Will Clark and
several others. And people seem to like the design.
Too much emphasis on overproduction, what you're not saying is that many boxes and cases were opened up
for that very reason, after all no need to keep it unopened if it will never have any value as almost everyone here believes..
So if its true what desert ice sports said that he estimates 4 to 6 times more cases were produced in 87 than 85,
then perhaps 4 to 6 times more cases were opened of 87 product than 85 product. Just a thought, no I have no
proof of this.
So you're saying there's a chance?
I can dig it!
Website
Shopify Store
Ebay Store
Your words have been marked. I’ll try to remember to bump this thread every 3-5 years to mark them again when it doesn’t happen.
i'm buying unopened 1987 topps cases for $2,500, let me know if you have any.
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Green Sneakers, right after the Chiefs traded Alex Smith, after having recorded the best QB rating in the entire
NFL, I wrote what is currently in my sigline, about how Patrick Mahomes was the next great QB. And I started buying
all the Mahomes rookie cards I could afford. My words were marked in my sigline, but alas, how many read my
sigline but did not foresee what had become clear to me.
Sir, it will be a pleasure to revisit this thread in 3 years.
Darin,
I am clearly doing my part to eradicate much of the 1980s unopened material out there, per my 80s rip thread. I agree that at some point in the distant future, 1987 Topps boxes will break $100, but not anytime soon. There are many collectors coming back into the hobby now who are in there early 40s and digging out there old collections. 1987 Topps was the first product I went all-in on as a kid. Unfortunately a quick eBay search will show the abundance of cases and boxes still available every day of the year. There is simply too much remaining to drive prices up past the $10-20 range per box. Bonds has a major asterisk next to him and while many like Larkin, Bo, Clark and Palmeiro...those cards are easily obtained. I will guess in 8-10 years after many, many, many folks rip those boxes for nostalgia sake that we may see prices north of $50/box. If you are buying these up, it will be a long term play. The better buy for 1987 would be Fleer or Donruss. Those RCs are more coveted than Topps and the Fleer is getting a bit harder to find. Fleer will break $100/box in the next 3-5 years.
Happy collecting...I do love me some 1987s.
While I doubt $100 price level is happening any time in the near future, I, too, have been noticing the rise in demand for junk era product across the board. I will see someone pay $XX for something, and think they're paying waaay to much, only to see purchases at that price level again and again. Then, over here, I'll see someone selling the exact same product for 1/4th the price, and happy to sell as many as they can, as fast as they can at that price. Somewhere, there's an inefficiency. Perhaps it's been drilled into our heads for so long that this stuff is "junk", that we're not able to see that it's desirable to someone else.
We would all do well to remember all of the other product from the 80s and 90s that has reached unfathomable prices. All it takes is a quick browse of unopened boxes available for sale to realize that all of those X-out boxes were once shunned and actually returned product. I'm sure the guys buying that stuff by the case for pennies on the dollar back then got mocked also.
Hopefully In the next 25 years so my nephews can reap the rewards.
Frankly though I think it's for the best that sets/cards from that era are affordable. I would've never had a chance at making my fantastic set collection at early 90s/pre-Internet Beckett prices (look them up; they were much higher back then because you couldn't get ahold of them nearly as easily as you can in today's online/Ebay world...and then factor inflation!!)
Dimes: 54S, 53P, 50P, 49S, 45D+S, 44S, 43D, 41S, 40D+S, 39D+S, 38D+S, 37D+S, 36S, 35D+S, all 16-34's
Quarters: 52S, 47S, 46S, 40S, 39S, 38S, 37D+S, 36D+S, 35D, 34D, 32D+S
74 Topps: 37,38,46,47,48,138,151,193,210,214,223,241,256,264,268,277,289,316,435,552,570,577,592,602,610,654,655
1997 Finest silver: 115, 135, 139, 145, 310
1995 Ultra Gold Medallion Sets: Golden Prospects, HR Kings, On-Base Leaders, Power Plus, RBI Kings, Rising Stars
I don't think this is a crazy question. I was sorting my cards over the weekend and I realized that even though I spend roughly the same amount every year, in terms of absolute number cards, I have fewer 2017 cards than 2016, and much fewer 2018 versus 2017.
For the modern football collector (I don't buy enough of the other sports to comment), the cost per card has skyrocketed under Panini. The entire pricing strategy seems to be based on giving you fewer "base cards" per box in exchange for a worthless auto or jersey.
Just from a sheer value point of view, I can see the older junk increasing in value.
1987 Topps is piled high in every semi serious collectors inventory from that period and then some. It’s gonna be a long sled to $100
Edit: And look at that, my 8,000th post lol
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Congrats on 8K!
Kris
My 1971 Topps adventure - Davis Men in Black
I bet I get to 8,000 before 87 gets to $100.
A 1987 Topps wax box weighs ~2 pounds, so it will be $100 when cardboard costs $50/pound.
Edited to add: I don't care if it ever gets to $100 because 1987 Topps still holds a lot of sentimental value in my book.
buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball
Same here. Lots of sentimental value for that year. I was 11 years old. In the summer months when I was 9, 10, 11, I used to ride in my grandfather's company truck which would provide all kinds of commercial goods to small grocery stores, drug stores, and nondescript corner stores. Well, on that truck, he would always have fresh Topps rack boxes. I can distinctly remember getting on the truck at like 5:00 AM and searching through the boxes for stars on top or bottom. I'd always go home with half a dozen racks to open at night. I still possess some of those racks I pulled from his truck.
Actually, I hope those boxes don't go up in price, but rather down. I want to be able to buy them cheap for years to come, just so I can rip one here and there. I kind of dislike the term "junk" when it comes to this period. To me, it's the farthest thing from "junk." To me, it's treasure after treasure after treasure. I just opened a 1987 Donruss wax box with my 5-year-old son this past weekend. It was a thrill to see him open a pack and flip through the cards and reveal the McGwire Rated Rookie. We had so much fun.
Andy
@ahopkins Great story, thank you for sharing. Experiences like yours are what collecting is all about.
buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball
When will a box of 1987 Topps baseball sell for 2.5 grams worth of gold? I hate to say but I think never. Only because there is a chance the $ might not exist in 1,000 years.
I think even the milk man had 1987 Topps on his truck back in the day.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
If there is any way this happens, it has to be hyped up UNBELIEVABLY, and in clean, FASC form. There has to be an influx of buying for this to happen, as those famous wood borders were printed in the millions. They are sitting at around $25/box at this point, and there is no real reason for them to move without any social media intervention, but I do see it being possible. Here is how:
The general collecting public needs to be educated on sealed wax ... in FASC form....and the benefits of having such in their "cardboard investment portfolio". The stuff is still being ripped, commons are still being dumped, and it has been this way for over 30 years now. 87 Topps is what I consider iconic junk wax. The wood borders are a fan favorite, and it is loaded with star power. No other junk wax year comes close (No, I don't consider 1985 the junk wax era).
When my generation starts seeing a beautiful, untainted, untouched box of perhaps one of the most recognizable sets of their childhood as something they want ... no ... need, that is the path to them taking off. Just my .02 anyway
I will birddog the crap out of them if that's the case!
Time is relative, but, what do you mean by "not that long ago? I don't think 1985 wax boxes have sold for $30-40 since 1985. I'm not exaggerating, either. I bought a single pack in the summer of 1987 for $3.50. At what point since then, because of McGwire and Clemens, would that box have even sniffed $1/pack?
Don't get me wrong, I agree with your general sentiment and admire your zeal, I just don't think we'll see $100/box anytime soon. For Topps to hit $100/box we'd probably be looking at Fleer $200/box and Donruss $175/box.
Keep in mind, production runs more than doubled from year-to-year post-1985, and that's based off of Donruss' figures. I imagine Topps even more so. For an '87 Topps box to hit $100 there has to be a relative ability on the buyer's part to pull at least $200 from the box. The Bonds goes for ~$50 in PSA 10, the rest is patchwork. For example, look at an '86 Donruss box. A PSA 10 Canseco and McGriff are both $150+ each. Those boxes go for $50.
So while I agree that junk wax has some room to grow, even I don't think we're going to see '87 Topps boxes at $100 soon. Then again, I'm not entirely sure how you define "not that long ago" so perhaps we're all actually on the same page and just don't know it.
Arthur
I think if Thanos snapped his finger and all opened 1987 Topps product disappeared, there is likely still enough unopened 1987 Topps to meet market demand and not reach $100 a box.
With that in mind, according to inflation calculator the following statement is true
What cost $18 in 1987 would cost $40.15 in 2018.
Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2018 and 1987,
they would cost you $18 and $7.94 respectively.
So 1987 Topps has lost more than 1/2 of its value in 32 years relative to inflation, as boxes sell in the $20-$25 range.
saucywombat@hotmail.com
I'm in the "never" boat as well, wrong era and print count to hit the $100 mark.
The era is no issue at all. The issue is the way over the top issue of the issues.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Lol... should've elaborated on the era part. While junk era often refers to the massive quantities printed, that era also consisted of better quality control (than vintage), more people hoarding unopened, and competition that for at least a while, made Topps the inferior set (especially so in 86 and 87).
Good point. One could argue that Topps was inferior in 88 and 89 as well (compared to Score and Upper Deck).
buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball
I like the 88 Topps set. Me and two other dudes do.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
I do like the orange backs. Orange looks good on the 72, 78, and 83 issues as well.
buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball
I'm one of those dudes.
Andy
Sadly I've had more success and interest with selling my '88 and '89 Topps rack cases on Craigslist than '87. And I'm not asking a ton for them either!
Just out of curiosity, what are you asking for a Topps rack case on Craigslist? (6- or 3-box variety?)
Andy
Send me a quote in a PM for one of each!
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Replied to you both.
I've always been partial to 1987, loved the look and selection of players.
Never will see $100 a box in my lifetime though, and I'm only 48.
49 here, and agree.
Me too! We should get bomber jackets and embroider them with our nicknames. Then we can meet at the bar and scoop up chicks.
Arthur
On a serious note, there's a place by my house that has case fresh boxes of '87 Topps for $10/ea. I guess I should go pick some up, considering there's no shipping charge, and start planning my retirement.
Arthur
I think there is a vast production increase between 1986 and 1987. And the 1986s have tough black borders, which has caused lots of them to be ripped in search of 10s. I think that the 1986s have a decent chance of being over 100 a box in the next 15 years. But the 1987s? I'm not convinced that anytime in the next 20-30 years they will be. Just too many of them. I agree with some earlier posters that the 1987 Fleer stand the best chance of hitting 100 of the 1987s, followed by Donruss and very distantly Topps. But if I was spending money (and had about 200 to spend) I think you are far better suited buying a box of 1985 Topps instead of a case of 1987. Or better yet, buy a handful of 1986.
kevin
How about 1987 Fleer Baseball Boxes? I see that they are around $45-$50 on ebay. FASC boxes at $75? Maybe $100?
1987 Fleer will get to $100. I can't remember exactly when maybe 2004 1987 Fleer was hot as Bonds was climbing the HR chart. I think they were going for $75 for wax boxes. They were getting tough to find as everyone was holding onto them. In 1987 I always remember Fleer being harder to find and Topps being everywhere. Pallet loads of Topps at the wholesale clubs, Price Club at the time.
About 15 years ago I was buying collections and selling them on ebay. I did it for a few years as a side thing. I was focused mostly on unopened stuff. In my travels I came across a lot of 1987-89 Topps. I can't see it at $100 any time in the near future. There is still so much out there. Supply and demand is still out of whack all these years later.
I doubt they will reach $100/box anytime soon. One thing for sure is those 1987 Topps Baseball Cases (20 box) weighed a TON! My goal was to sell through whatever I brought to a show because I dreaded having to pack them up and take them back home...
That's the thing. I'd be snatching these cases (rack, cello, wax) off eBay left and right if it weren't for the darn shipping. Almost all my cases I've picked up locally. I'm not paying $40 shipping for a case that normally costs only $40.
Andy
I'm going to end this argument. Someone send me $101 and I'll send them a box of 1987 Topps wax. Then the answer to the op will be....TODAY!
Tempting, but I think I'd rather send @doubledragon $300 for his left thumb.