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Can you possibly draw a parallel between 2014 Kennedy Half Gold vs the past 2018 Palladium EVENT?
Paradisefound
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The massive thread leading to the release of 2014 50th Anniversary of John F Kennedy Half gold reminded me of our past Palladium fiasco. There were a lot of pro & con then so I am curious to hear about how you feel; looking back......
Would you share your insight of the 2014 Kennedy Half gold opening day and the promise you might've realized since?
A throw back....
2014 50th Anniversary of John F Kennedy
US Mint pricing on opening day $1.240 3/4 oz Mintage 40.000 (?) *spot $1,294
Today I can easily obtain a perfect PCGS PR70 for $1,200
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I do remember a dealer named Kevin Lipton who allegedly hired people to stand in line to buy these coins. So it is a little different. They were made available at a coin show first. The palladium coin was online only..
I see much more upside on Palladium from the get go
Disagreed. The Palladium was available to the first 100 customers standing in line outside the mint's gift shop in DC and Philadelphia (& assuming the Denver branch too).
You can see that the majority of them were only bought to flip. Go to eBay and see how many are being sold for $2000+, and they don't even have them yet. I think the 2014 BHOF coins are what started the whole flipping thing as it is now.
From coin World:
Media swarmed Los Angeles collector Nick Yadgarov as he purchased the first gold Proof 1964-2014 Kennedy half dollar coin Aug. 6 during the American Numismatic Association World's Fair of Money.
Yadgarov bought the coin from the U.S. Mint for $1,240 after he and three others were promised $5,000 for each of the first four coins sold by dealers Kevin Lipton of Kevin Lipton Rare Coin, Beverly Hills, Calif., and David Hendrickson of SilverTowne, Winchester, Ind.
The amount paid to Yadgarov and his linemates was dwarfed by the coin's second swap price. It was sold later in the week to a different collector for $100,000, according to the dealers.
I do not think the palladium coins will get to that price..
I did not k ow that the palladium coins were available at the mints shops.. I was wrong about that..
I did not know either ..... so it's all good. Thank you for sharing the article
It's the big hyped up then if we can get a PCGS PF70 for almost the same price as the opening's
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I ordered 5 of the Kennedy's day one and sent them in unopened from the Mint and got 5-PR69's. That convinced me I was cursed, and I promised myself to never send in coins that I do not see first. It also taught me to look really carefully, at all angles, in different light, and to study every letter, date, rims, surface finish, strike etc., for any flaws, scuffs, etc., so I don't waste money grading nearly as many 69's anymore.
Now I usually just buy a 70 from someone else, so I do not have to go through the grading delay, hassle, and disappointment. By the time I got my 5-PR69's Kennedy's back, the big dealers had sent in so many coins to get 70's, they sold their reject 69's cheap, below my cost after grading, and I am still stuck with them.
PS: The Palladium fiasco is far from over. The first pre-sale 70 Palladiums are crazy expensive, and it might take 3-6 months before prices come back to earth.
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MS Palladiums are not coming down and I think the PR will be just as good. A key is a key now the next one will be a crazy mintage so every one can get one.
Hoard the keys.
I agree the 2017's stay strong. They are available raw for $1,800 and the 2018's are probably going to be similar after a few weeks. What I am referring to when I say "come down in 3-6 months" is the PCGS70's. The one presale 70 at 3,995 is probably on the high side long term, but the one being bid on may go for more during the initial rush. There are going to be thousands sent in for grading that the dealers have been buying, (the MS palladium has 5,431 slabbed at PCGS and 3,621 are 70's).
There are nearly 500 eBay actual sales already of the 2018's in the $2,000 range, most are going to dealers to send in. There are thousands that were sold offline to them as well. That is a lot of graded coins that will show up in 2-3 weeks. Percentage of 70's in not known yet but I sure am not paying $4,000+ for one. I am pretty sure in 3-6 months some will be available for closer to $2,500-3,000.
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I still say: platinum eagles.
more people know what gold is than palladium
more people know what Kennedy half is than Mercury dime
more people feel bigger is better
I am not sure how many collectors will buy to hold a Pallidium coin
"I want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening?
Plastics",
(with Palladium inside)
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Yes, here is my parallel - I didn't buy one then, and I didn't buy one now
I only got one, sent it in to pcgs right away and it come back in PR-70 dcam, sold it for a nice profit a long time ago, timing is everything
The big difference is the mintages. The mintage cap at 15,000 pieces shows how much the market for this kind of specialty modern item has fallen apart in just a few years.
Palladium is not a traditional coinage metal either.
Indeed, 'timing is everything'.
I was not collecting coins when the 2014 Kennedy came out so I can not draw any parallels or conclusions about what will happen with the 2018 Palladium, but looking at eBay and the BST here I was wondering if anyone bought this coin to keep or is it just about flipping it for a quick profit?
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I might buy one eventually, but only if the palladium coin becomes a regular bullion coin that can be purchased at near the bullion price.
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When the flippers sell to flippers it usually ends badly for the ones left holding the "bag".
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I did not get up to Rosemont in 2014 until the day after the Gold Kennedy Fiasco. The ANA old-timers that I talked to were either very shocked or very amused by what had happened the day before. All said that they had never seen anything like it, even during the Hunt Brothers silver rush of late 1979 and early 1980. Stories abounded from guys who said they sold their Gold Kennedys for a $300 profit within five minutes of having the coins in placed in their hands.
I was at the show (ANA I believe) it was a total mess. Lipton or somebody had bus after bus loads of people come in and get in line. It disrupted the show and many dealers were not happy. There was a rumor that somebody paid 100K for the supposedly first coin struck...which is crazy because how in the world would you know or could prove which coin was struck first.
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I am still waiting for the 1st one to come down to a reasonable premium but I don't see it happening especially with the success of 2018 launch
@Overdate said:
@BillDugan1959 It was a fiasco then. One correction though flippers who lined up at 4:00 a.m. to get the coin sold it themselves for double issue price. It was people who were bused in by dealers that were paid a few hundred over.
@Paradisefound It will happen. Patience is a virtue. The Mint will overload the market's carrying capacity for palladium coins, somehow. The price of palladium has been volatile if you take a long-term view, and fluctuations in intrinsic value are highly important in these things. Premium prices depend on the psychology of large numbers of persons and that which is hot today will not always be so.
The 2009 UHR Saints had a one per household limit, which was then removed. I don’t remember the flipping phenomenon with this so much, but they were selling well on eBay soon after. The mint melted the unsold coins. PL 70s were in the $4,000 or $5,000+ range.
Flipping was big with the 2011 Silver Eagle 5 coin anniversary sets, which had a 5 per household limit. This is where eBay started requiring a photo that showed both your username and the unopened box, to prove you had it in hand and to reduce fraud. Soon after, the grading companies started with about 9 million varieties of labels. Then the spotting...and the price drop.
I remember dealers on BST offering cost + x for ordering some of the early 5 ounce silver quarter “puck” things. These had an order limit of 1 per household.
So flipping has been going on for a while. I have yet to see a coin maintain its early top price.
He who knows he has enough is rich.
My memory is imperfect, but I don't think that I heard anybody at that show who claimed to get double issue price. Nice work if you can get it!
I thought a little bit about being in that line, but it would have required leaving home at midnight (or a bit earlier) to be there at 4 A.M. Nor is my bladder up to a six or seven hour wait in line!
What Palladium fiasco
those Kennedys graded ANA NGC 70s Chicago. sold for $ over 4,000 raw was a double early
Good luck waitng for bullion price ....how about 2017 PAs
In 2013 I was first in line for the 2013 Reverse Proof Buffalo. My buddy Bruce was in a hurry so I let him in front of me. He got the first one and had Richard Peterson, the acting Mint Director, sign the cert and then he gave the cert to me as a thank you for letting him get in front of me. I'd sell it for a whole lot less than 100K. Hopefully the picture of the cert comes out.
I think the Reverse Buffalo is really the mint product that started the crazy coin show label craze.
The sky is the limit on this production with a great industrial metal that should leave long term owners smiling from ear to ear as they enjoy their pride of ownership.
This bears noting by people who are drunk on the current environment for this coin. The $300 wholesale premium is probably supported largely by dealers who pre-sold raw and slabbed an need to fill their demand. What residual demand exists not met by pre-sales and initial sales?
We'll get there. Patience. People are still drunk on these. Platinum eagle mintages for the fractionals are under 5,000.
That makes me want it even more if you look at other coins with the same out look you will find that most if not all coins that are not wanted with a low mintage go up in price for that reason, no one wanted them so they rec a Low mintage and then they are wanted and there is not many to go around that pushes the price up.
It's what happens in numismatics go back and look at all the short minted coins there will be a story in there like price was to high, no one cared, it was made no one liked it. Like the 95W every one wanted the gold then some one said that's the lowest minted silver eagle minted it was up there now back down but worth a bit of $$$$ in PR70. But with the 1st palladium with a mintage of 15000 in MS one year type 2017 and a proof with the same mintage the next year a one year types I'm in. My kids kids my be the big winners of this one but it will be a big winner some day and a small winner for now.
Hoard the keys.
I think it was the 2006 rev proof silver eagle 1st strike I think there was like 15 labels that year, I sold one for $7k one of the 1st listed that one paid for all 20 of my set's that year. Now you can buy that coin for $250 ouch.
Hoard the keys.
Yes, lots. I dumped my two 2009 UHR MS70PL coins for $4500 each. I could see the writing on the wall. Pretty coins though - hard to let them go.
Thankful I only purchased one gold Kennedy. Just looked at a couple auctions with starting bids at $1045/$1050 and no bids, with 18 hrs left.
edit:
What's the mintage # for the gold kennedy? Thought maybe it was in my 2017 RB, guess not.
Found a number of 70k minted, legit? These should have been a 1/2 oz. or a full oz. 3/4 is just odd, jmo.
I was on a collecting break when the Kennedys came out. I'm glad now seeing the price depreciation. I think the Palladium will do okay for a while. Maybe in three years they will be near issue price? I have a feeling they won't though. Could be wrong, though it wouldn't be a first.
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Rare earths may yet outpace noble metals.
What about rhodium?
I think they are incomparable.
For the 2014 Kennedy gold:
(1) People were paid to wait in lines for the coin
(2) PCGS certified the first coin sold
(3) The first coin sold was resold for $100,000
https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/2014/08/first-gold-kennedy-half-dollar-sold-at-ana-show-resells-for-100000.all.html
In 6 months there will be lots of sellers with little to no buyers, I would almost bet!
Isn't that the MO of many moderns?
I’ve been collecting moderns since 2008. In almost every single case - even with super low mintages - if you don’t get them at issue with patience at some point in the future you’ll get them at a decent price. It’s very rare that you’d do well with coins bought at “frenzy” prices . If I’d sold every modern (bought at issue) near their frenzy peak and used the profits to repurchase in the future, I’d have entire collection that was close to free. Maybe a few First Strike coins have held their values but they don’t keep going up like they’re Apple stock. And there’s always the risk of a new super low mintage with the continuing series
08w Buffalos, Liberty Spouse, AGEs, fractional Platinums, ASEs, Baseballs, numerous $5 gold commems - likely the Palldiums will follow this pattern especially with their relatively high mintages
No. The former was manufactured and staged; the latter was not.
Here is a comparison to the gold Kennedy in this Mint News Blog article today:
https://khon2.com/weather/weather-blog/hurricane-olivia-weakens-slightly-as-it-crosses-into-the-central-pacific-well-east-of-hawaii/1426536148
Scroll down a little to see the 2014 part.