Early Lincoln “Memorial Reverse” price history?
TommyType
Posts: 4,586 ✭✭✭✭✭
I was just running through my collection, and noticed something that had somehow escaped my attention until now.
While I track value over time, more for statistical and market interest than anything else, I guess I just didn’t actually pay attention to this anomaly. I usually use Numismedia as my “closer to truth” retail and wholesale baseline under the assumption that the PCGS price guide is too often an “optimistic” retail (from a sellers point of view).
But, for a 1963 MS-66 RD Lincoln Cent:
Numismedia:
Wholesale: $60
Retail: $75
PCGS Guide (Retail): $36
That alone is interesting. Then I took into account that I actually PAID: $149.50!! (Using $75 as my retail value hid much of my paper losses). Now, I really had to do some research....
The PCGS price guide is the only one that will give you readily available price history. And looking at that, it becomes apparent that I probably didn’t grossly overpay for the timeframe purchased.
pcgs.com/pricehistory#/?=2884-66
Sept 2004 price: $400
Jan 2005 – Jan 2007 price: $200
(Ok, significant drop there, but that may be just maturing of the PCGS guide, since it's the earliest dates for the history? I’m sure I bought somewhere in the 2005-2007 era).
Jan 2008 – Jan 2010: $130
Jan 2011: $92
Jan 2012: $75
Jan 2013: $60
Jan 2014: $40....and it then trickled down to the current $36
Looking at 1959 through 1964, the same effect shows up in many of the dates, but not to the same degree. None had a max as high as $400, (Max for several was $200, and for 1959 it was only $75...down to $32 today).
So, does anyone have a history to tell here?
- Are we just talking about a growing population? A backlog of Mint sets and rolls being certified to take advantage of the high value at the time?
- Gradeflation made a bunch of those MS-65’s into 66’s?
- General dying of the Memorial Lincoln market?
- Is there anything ‘special’ about 1963 that had the value THAT HIGH at one time?
And which is the more valid current retail? $75 Numismedia, or $36 PCGS?
- Unfortunately for me, the CoinFacts auction results say the PCGS guide is the more correct, with recent sales in the $13 to $50 range (min and max), with most around the $31 level, (Great Collections exclusively).
I still like the coin. It’s the absolute REDDEST red cent I have....it ain’t the usual glorified orange. It’s actually RED. But I obviously shouldn’t plan on getting my money back in my lifetime. 
I’m not a big Lincoln Cent collector. So I’m just kind of interested in the history and whether it’s as interesting as the price dive seems to indicate it is....if anyone should have the story at their fingertips.
Comments
I believe these markets are pretty small. And a lot of the paltry demand is for only the highest grades. This means that it doesn't take a lot of new supply to have a dramatic effect on price.
Speculating in such coins is still a risky business unless you know the coins because these are demand driven. While demand can increase many fold the pops of some of these coins could increase dramatically as well.
The early memorials tended to be fairly well made since this was back in the day of pride in workmanship and copper is easily worked. Some of the later dates are legitimately rare in nice condition but sell for peanuts because of the lack of demand and the curious way coins are graded.
Let's be realistic -- there are likely many thousands of these in identical or better condition sitting in boxes, bags, rolls, etc. The MS-66 "grade" is typical for a new cent of that period. The fair market value of one is about 3-cents. Whatever else that is involved in "pricing" is fluff-and-puff.
Of course, these are my opinions and I'm usually out of step with this kind of thing...
PS: To me, this is the kind of price insanity that completely discourages kids from starting coin collections.
Thanks for the info and opinions.
Guess it's probably just another lesson in maturing markets. Until the wrinkles get smoothed out, and information gets shared more thoroughly, prices can do funny things....
MS66 coins are in no way "typical" for Lincolns of this era.
The pricing is "what it is", and involves many factors.
The fair market price for even a MS65 would not be close to 3c.
Maybe a run-of-the-mill, spotted, dull, lifeless unc. would be 3c, but certainly not a gem.
I know, I sell these, I slab these, have for years.
Sell me your gems for 3c.
Please.
I think more of these have been graded, and also a combination of the "drying up" of the Lincoln Memorial market, although there still are buyers, just not at retail levels. 66s are a wash these days, you need a 7 to make any money....even the "tougher" dates like 61-D, 62-D and 63-D are coming down.
beautiful deep, cherry red with outstanding luster...but also spots and/or huge gashes on the portrait. It's tough to find the latter without prominent spotting, and/or large vertical gashes on the portrait.
1963 Lincolns tend to be either A) dull, struck on washed out planchets with tons of ticks, or
As far as 1963 goes, I "made" the first 67RD of that date.
Stupidly, stupidly, stupidly....(did I say stupidly?) at the time I didn't do my homework and was unaware that it was a pop 1 new pop-top coin.
I sold it for around $3k if I recall, but should have gotten more. I only have myself to blame.
I also made the first 1967 1c in 67RB (not SMS) and I have no idea why the coin wasn't in a RD holder.
I believe that I also "made" the first MS69 Lincoln of any date by any service, back around 1992, although I may be wrong on that one.
But I do know that there weren't many at all back then. I think mine was the first.
The grading for these has been all over the place recently---I know the old adage "ownership adds a pont", but really, many of the 66 and 66+ coins that I have seen lately I would not even submit. They are that bad. This inconsistency may also be bringing prices down. I just bought a 1963-D in 66 RD sight unseen at an auction that was pitiful. It was a 64 on a GOOD day.
For me to submit these days, it has to be a "shot 7".
In the old days, it was a 6- and anything you got into a 6 holder was at least a $100 bill.
Those were the days.
Fantastic!
AllCoinsRule - Do you remember our gentleman's heated discussion specifically about 1963 P and D MS 66 cent values we had back then??? I refused, and thought it was ridiculous, to purchase a modern Lincoln for $900-$1200!!! Looks like I was right after all...
First of all, AllCoinsRule is a Heck of a collector with the best eye appeal, bar none. He helped fill many MS 66 example I still have in my set. However, with that being said, this old surfer argued that not only was I NOT going to drop over $900 - $1200 for a MS 66 1963 D cent - I kept a MS 65 in my set until...5/15/15 when I dropped a crazy $185 for a coin the Price Guide stated was worth then ...$230. Its now down to $110.
The OP's question is a good one and I say all of the above apply to the fall of the values plus at that time, the worn dies of 1963 had more to do with holding back higher grades than the over all un marked, uncirculated condition. I was also felt that the huge volume of 1963 still rolls available would prove that the population based on those values would increase over time.
WS
Trust me, it was a friendly "heated" debate as I think you had few to sell at the time and I was not buying LOL. We also traded free vouchers for grading coins added to my set which I am still appreciative of.
WS
Re early Lincoln “Memorial Reverse” price history, you might want to add one data point. The first sale was likely one cent in 1963.
Back in the early 1960's most of us collectors were scouring bank rolls for 1950-D nickels and other "rare and valuable" coins. Recent uncirculated rolls were hot, but there wasn't any huge premium for the nicest looking coins of a given date and mintmark. I probably spent my share of MS66's and MS67's. If only we'd known!
Hello Allcoinsrule:
You might consider the Reconsideration tier on your 1967 cent. I think the PCGS fee is well worth paying if your coin
is upgraded to MS67+ RD. It would then be a top-pop (and create considerable interest in an HA.com auction.)
Playing with modern coins is a mine field.
Exactly!
We all thought we'd get rich finding a valuable date in circulation or holding just the right rolls of common dates. The reality is the only coins where people alive today had any shot at a profit was pulling Gems and varieties from circulation. No one cared about Gem or varieties so they just circulated.
Now, finding these coins in pristine condition can be difficult and finding later coins in Unc made after 1964 can be almost impossible.
It seems collectors still don't get it! Even after 50 years they believe all moderns are common in Gem. So they don't collect them because people never did bother with common coins.
There are no coin markets you can enter and succeed through ignorance. Even the best studied and most widely collected areas will eat up people who choose not to learn.
Maybe one of these days I need to go through all the rolls of Lincolns I have. I have every BU roll of Lincolns I have ever purchased! I have been a dealer since the mid 90's and actually have no idea how many rolls I have! (well into the 1000's!) I also have tons of BU rolls of Jefferson Nickels!
I came upon this choice because it was a small investment that perhaps would turn into a good investment....Hmmm Bulk Submission in the future? I get cross eyed just thinking about screening that many Pennies and Nickels!
If they ever DO get around to cancelling the Lincoln Cent.....you have to wonder if those late date coins will suddenly become of interest?
Maybe I'm an optimist, but I see that event as something that could kick off a rejuvenation of Lincoln Cent collecting, and by extension, the hobby as a whole.