Grey sheet gets it wrong!
EagleEye
Posts: 7,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
So the July issue of the grey sheet dropped the price of 1877 Indian cents in MS64RB from $8,000 to $7,000 based on the auction performance of two butt-ugly examples - one with no diamonds and another with corrosion on the reverse.
Here is the coin facts listing showing the recent auction results:
http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/2128
Here are the coins that sold for $6,463
1877 MS64RB Heritage 1/17:3192
A recent auction for a MS64RB with corrosion on the revserse from Stacks-Bower's followed at the same price:
1877 MS64RB Stacks-Bower's 3/17:1019
This coin has corrosion on the reverse.
Does the sale of substandard coins dictate the market now? Who is making these decisions? Are they looking at the coins in the auction to see if they represent the true market or are they just looking at the numbers.
Also there is a relevance of the spread between grades to consider. A little common sense is important.
Comments
Greysheet is simply reporting the pricing trend.
In my opinion, the bigger issue is the coin!
Why do we never seem to get upset with the fact that these coins should have been bought back by PCGS or "fixed" instead of complaining about the price realized...
Who determines price just with greysheet?
Typically, the dogs, like these, get dumped in an auction unreserved to get rid of them because they are unsaleable to most dealers. Of course they sell cheap, but that does not reflect on the market. It used to be that the grey sheet would gather information from dealers buying coins. Prior to dropping or raising a price they would talk to experts and see if they have been paying more or less. That determines the market, not a few dogs selling cheap in an auction. (No offense to dogs, mind you)
Also dropping a coin like this nearly 10% is really unusual. Typically they would lower it a few points and see if the trend is there.
If you do not use grey sheet, you are using the auction results, right? Don't use these auction results, because they are grossly overgraded examples. Where do you get your pricing from?
But when We offer coins to some/most dealers they immediately go to these auction records when it serves them well. I don't go for it but that is what they live by......... when buying.
I have no problem with the greysheet and it is greatly improved. The market is in the tank and big ticket material very risky. Greysheet is simply reporting the results. If these big ticket coins go bad in holder it's game over. U need to churn this material and flip it quickly. We are in summer doldrums so back of bid no surprise.
I prefer MS 69 slabbed AGB, AGE, MWG close to melt. I bought 2 NGC slabbed NS69 Gold Buffaloes for $1300 each at a show last weekend that's like 5 pct over melt. Fantastic coins!
Unfortunately, there are a fair number of collectors that buys coins from auction using "market prices" and they don't view the coins for quality and just follow the TPG for pricing. Thats based on a commodity approach for buying rare coins. That doesn't work to achieve long term nor short term profits. As many dealers sell to collectors that uses that logic, those dealers are faced with buying at below market - without regard to the important factors that makes coins more valuable - eye appeal, originality, toning. strike and surface quality. Also, provenances are important too.
This is a function of the some collectors purchasing coins off the internet and not learning to distinguish between better coins from average/dog coins and the pricing relationship/
I keep reading coin collecting books and many of the post on this forum and so far what I have learned is buy the coin not the plastic or sticker. I am sure you being a dealer it can be frustrating when buyers try to use the grey sheet in their favor, but the bottom line is it is your coin until they give you what you want for the coin. I am learning this hobby and if you are going to be at Long Beach in September I would enjoying getting to meet you. Tim
Pricing is a funny game and here is one example in the Capped Bust Dime PCGS pricing guide-
1821 Large Date - $4850 in 64 & $20k in 65. The POP reports 20 in 64 and 9 in 65. This coin price has recently increased. Compared that to the 1823/2 Small E is $6500 in 64 and $17500 in 65. That POP is 8 in 64 and 2 in 65. Clearly, the Small E in 65 is much scarcer and rarer than the 1821 Large Date and should be priced much higher than the 1821 Large Date. If collectors follow price guides then they are losing out to collectors that understand their series more.
@EagleEye sounds like your issue should be taken up with PCGS if you disapprove of their grading. From our perspective If the coins are consistently selling below our levels we are compelled to lower our indications. Ironically, we would have lowered the Bid further except you have an active bid on CDNX for $7000, so we are merely picking up your actual "Bid".
So, the answer to your question here is that YOU are making the decision.
Don't shoot the messenger... if you want inaccurate pricing information, I'm sure you can find it elsewhere.
Happy 4th Everybody,
John
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
I think you just shot him in the foot! Good call out! So,Rick...if you want the bid to be 8K you need to raise your bid to 8K for the right coins!
Does the sale of substandard coins dictate the market now?
no more than the sale of really nice coins. as someone else said, the sheet just tracks trends and selling prices.
I thought that most of the GS results were CAC coins now and the non-cac were worth less? I don't know why they don't have a board of experts before making significant changes.
Interesting. I often look at sold listings and occasionally I will see a coin that went for cheap. When researching said coins they always look like crap.
Good post, and great responses.
I recall the OP complaining several times over the years that GS Bid prices were low on the 1877 circs, due to gradeflation, and there was certainly truth to that, as 'old school Fines' were getting into VF holders. This just sounds like more of the same.
Maybe the market needs to adopt the old Copper Quotes strategy, by listing prices for coins by grade, categorized by Choice, Average, and Scudzy , to make everyone happy
Taking @Walkerguy21D's train of thought one step further,
If there can be such a difference between a CAC-stickered, MS64 Indian cent and a non-stickered, MS64 Indian cent (with corrosion?
), is it time for the Greysheet publishers to come out with the "Beansheet" for wholesome, stickered coins? Perhaps a two-tiered market needs a two-tiered price guide?
Between CAC and Eagle Eye's photo seal, there are already 2 identifiers for "wholesome" 1877 Indian cents. If there's a published bid of $8,000 for MS64RB examples to accompany those stickers, then the achievable price stays elevated....even if it disagrees with CDN.
Grey Sheet can't be expected to cover the entire grading spectrum of 64 RB coins....that would be nearly impossible when factoring in gradations of red within the RB range (30% red, 40%, 50, 60, 70, 80%). Then the grade itself 64 ABCDE coin. Then the holder, sticker(s) if any, secure, *, etc. Then finally, an in-person review of anything unusual on the coin such as spotting, corrosion, verdigris, major hits/hairlines in focal areas, toning that could be questionable, etc. Fortunately for the 1877 cent the price spreads from 63 to 64 aren't as huge as compared to many other coins out there.
Here's the problem, based on ricks comments: there are so many marginal coins out on the market now with no homes(buyers) except to dump in an auction with no reserve. These prices come in low and reflect in current auction records. So when dealers go and look at auction results when your selling your coin to them, they want to buy it based on recent results. If your coin is far superior to the recent sales your going to be in trouble unless you are dealing with somebody who specializes in a particular area and knows that your coin is above or choice. Then on top of that , the dealer him/herself has then got to convince their customer that the example that they are offering is far superior to the typical example so they can justify the price being asked, especially nowadays where the general collector now has access to basically the same information that the dealer has due to online pricing/auction archives, coin facts, etc
also, I might add, a lot of general customers(and some dealers), do not have the ability to distinguish what constitutes a good coin from a marginal coin.
I agree with what jdimmick and Rick aresaying. It is just as bad in my favorite series Barber Half's. I am literally amazed at some of the coins that are being graded now compared to a few years ago(IE coins that would bodybag before). My solution is to have some of that inferior crap in stock and if a buyer is trying to lowball my PQ choice coin I can offer him a graded piece of crap at the level he/she wants to pay!
Well y'all going to get your wish. Over the next months, greysheet is going to split into CAC and nonCAC prices.
So what will we be btchng about next?
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
Link?
Grey sheet has always been about bid/ask levels for solidly graded coins. When did that change to where any lower end coin transaction adjusts the price?
A market decrease or increase in a price guide should be from market weakness or strength, not from overgraded junk selling cheap at auction. Reporting junk sales as the market is a gross error on the grey sheets part. They are taking an easy look at auction data and applying it without any thought to the rest of the market in that particular coin. This is not about the 1877 MS64RB in particular, the market reporting in general - all series. It is shown to be obvious with this coin because it is a strong and positive market. There is no inherent weakness in the 1877 Indian Cent market.
John is right in one respect, dealers need to step up and control their markets better. Strong market-making bids is the short-term answer. No one want to buy the junk, so bids are by necessity, sight-seen. Some will say it is market manipulation, but in reality it is market protection.
Collectors can also help stabilize the market they collect. Forward your purchase information to the Grey sheet, PCGS Coin Facts, Coin World trends, Numismatic News, etc. If you see an error or are paying way more (or less) than what they report, let them know. The more data they get from collectors, the less they will rely on junk auction results.
What happens when the market is reported by junk auctions? A death spiral. The next auction sale of a junk 1877 MS64RB will be based on the now lowered price in the grey sheet and will likely sell for $5500. The grey sheet will then lower their price to $6,000. Then the next junk example will sell for $4750. The grey sheet will lower their price to $5500.
A previously strong market will have been ruined because of the junk selling at auction and being reported on.
To the point of PCGS or NGC fixing this, If you own a junk overgraded coin, please send it back to them, don't perpetuate the problem by dumping it in a public auction.
Waste of time to send it back. There's no way they can buy all the junk off the market
Greysheet John has worn the hat of retailer, grader (Dominion..they were very good) and now pricing maven. It is an exceptionally difficult job to accurately reflect values across so many series, third party holders and grades. Impossible really.
I have been critical of the GS lagging downward adjustments on Morgan Dollars which are extremely liquid, but expecting JF to loupe every coin that changes hands is ridiculous.
In the abstract, yes, a very daunting job. In the case of the 1877 MS64RB, only two auction sales were noted for the last six months. There were also auction sales that were around $9K last year. Doesn't that factor in too? Before reducing a price to follow, a quick check requiring 30 seconds would reveal that the coins sold cheap for a grading problem, not market weakness. Lucky thing I had a low-ball bid present, they would have lowered it further.
Would this apply to private treaty sales as well? What's the standard of evidence required by Coin Facts?
Here are some real sale prices for 1877 MS64RB:
$8,250 (RB)
$8,000 (BN)
$7,000 (BN)
Rick...I just checked Heritage going back to 2014 or so. Some in the $7,000 range a few extending up towards high $8000's.
Considering that the GS is supposed to reflect wholesale bid, $7000 seems reasonable even excluding the two lowball prices that you noted. Add 10% for ask and you are at $7700.
None of us are happy when sheet prices drop, but transparency is better than fantasy.
Statistically speaking, this is only fair. If you want the premium quality and undergraded coins to be included in grey sheet pricing, you have to include the dogs as well.
Perhaps somebody (auction house, consignor, other dealers) should have notified PCGS and suggest they take the coin off the market before the sale was conducted.
This. And it's true for many series. The margin between A and C coins can be considerable. 50% is not unusual for rare date Seated coins.
Take the GS as a good starting guide and then do your own research. If the rest of the market insists on using a single price point for coin X in grade Y then use that to your advantage......
Question...does PCGS still guarantee the grade on copper?
Always thought Grey sheet ( and all price "guides", really) are meant to reflect "average" coins for each grade level.
Of course, exceptionally nice or not nice coins for any given grade will be valued higher or lower.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Ironically, we would have lowered the Bid further except you have an active bid on CDNX for $7000, so we are merely picking up your actual "Bid"."
Should a sight-seen bid control what the Grey Sheet shows as the value on a coin? If I am a sight-seen bidder and I pass on 4/5 coins offered to me at my bid while the other 4/5 coins sell at auction at, say, $6,000 or $6,500, isn't $6,000 or $6,500 the proper value to show on the coin in question? Or, show (2) values - one for "generic" examples and the other price for sight-seen premium quality examples. Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Greysheet is for sight seen coins and Bluesheet is for sight unseen coins.
I find this an interesting discussion!
Rick, what's your grade on the Heritage example? Is it an XF or AU, or MS with a weak strike? Would the PDS system be more accurate to describe this coin, and if so, what's the PDS grade?
==Looking for pre WW2 Commems in PCGS Rattler holders, 1851-O Three Cent Silvers in all grades
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There is just too much emphasis placed on the gray sheet and a one price fits all approach to buying and selling rare coins... That is just simply not how quality is bought and sold.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
@Tunis...Why do you disagree with this? Are you one of the auction result sticklers that expects to get a nice coin for what a POS sold for????
These are apparently RETAIL prices. CDN is WHOLESALE, and as clearly stated by JF, the $7K quoted reflects YOUR bid on CDNX - so what are we missing here? Can you respond directly to JF's statement about your bid heavily influencing their quoted price?
Best, SH