Nobody can tell you if the coin market will turn higher in January. It's a silly question, as much as no one can tell you who will be elected president, or the price of oil, etc.
What I can offer is this: buying coins you enjoy will reap you benefits, not necessarily financial. If it's a rare coin, you stand a chance of its appreciating in value over time. I've seen the coin market boom and bust for different areas, so there's no telling the future. And timing such markets are virtually impossible, because what's available today may not be tomorrow. So enjoy the hobby, and if you a discerning collector you may enjoy profits too.
Sure wish that this "bear market" of the last years that people keep talking about applied to the coins I seek--XF to AU bust halves. (so-called "collector coins) Prices have just kept going up--not down. As for a coming "bull market"--Lord, I hope not. I can't afford to buy much at current prices--let alone higher ones.
Just because I'm old doesn't mean I don't love to look at a pretty bust.
@OKbustchaser said:
Sure wish that this "bear market" of the last years that people keep talking about applied to the coins I seek--XF to AU bust halves. (so-called "collector coins) Prices have just kept going up--not down. As for a coming "bull market"--Lord, I hope not. I can't afford to buy much at current prices--let alone higher ones.
It's the "investment coins" - generic silver and gold type, classic commems, Morgan and Peace dollars, etc) - that have come way down, and it's the investment coins that I expect to put in a bottom right about now. Although I do think that "collector coins" will continue to do well.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@atom said:
Nobody can tell you if the coin market will turn higher in January. It's a silly question, as much as no one can tell you who will be elected president, or the price of oil, etc.
Nobody can predict those things with certainty, but you don't have to be right every time to succeed in the long run.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@OKbustchaser said:
Sure wish that this "bear market" of the last years that people keep talking about applied to the coins I seek--XF to AU bust halves. (so-called "collector coins) Prices have just kept going up--not down. As for a coming "bull market"--Lord, I hope not. I can't afford to buy much at current prices--let alone higher ones.
It's the "investment coins" - generic silver and gold type, classic commems, Morgan and Peace dollars, etc) - that have come way down, and it's the investment coins that I expect to put in a bottom right about now. Although I do think that "collector coins" will continue to do well.
So," investors" prefer common, shiny coins in TPG holders then.
Well, there are plenty of those to go around, and more "made" every day.
Like OK bustchaser, I haven't seen prices for well-circulated pre-1816 type come down very much at all, certainly not "way down". Although I wish they would "have a sale" on quality draped bust coinage, particularly R5 and better die varieties.
This is a great thread, but certainly no one should be taking 'advice' from any post(s), and buying coins based on that advice. Coins are unbeatable as collectibles, and you can make money holding them, if you're lucky... but I'm not aware of anyone who's ever done that successfully over a long period of time.
Caveat emptor.
You need to get out more and read about numismatic history. Long term holders who have done well? Eliasberg, Pittman, Newman, Bareford, and a slew of top collectors around here who sold off their collections in 2006-2008. Look at the results of some of the more modest collections hitting the auction block the past 1-2 years that were put together in the past 20 yrs....such as Rev McClure.
Any of the top quality coins I purchased in the 1970's through 1980's did quite well for themselves. While I didn't hang on to them all (I should have) the ones I did have done quite well. The real question is will buying today reap the same rewards in 30-40 years as buying in 1973-1977 and 1981-1983 did? Buying superb gem coins of scarcity back then resulted in gains of 5X to 50X. You didn't have to be "lucky" to do that. Just find the coins that had a reason to be successful and buy them. Even if you purchased more simple coins like semi-key date seated material in VF-AU resulted in 10X to 50X gains too. The hard part wasn't buying it....but hanging on to them all those years as your favorite coin guru's told you to buy Gem common date Morgans/Commems instead in 1980 and then again in 1989-1990.
US numismatic coins are a fully mature market. The days of huge gains (or perhaps any gains at all) are over for most coins. Gains for even the best material are likely to be moderate. The move to a cashless society is on the horizon and when it arrives all those "long term holds" of coins will be in big trouble. Out of sight is out of mind.
I believe for a lot of coins the money has already been wrung out of them. People can play the sticker game, but if they can't sell their stickered coins for more than they paid the joke is on them. USM products are expensive and fall in the aftermarket for the most part.
Generic coins I doubt seriously will see their 1989 highs anytime soon if ever.
Will the market uptick in January - more likely to fall would be my wager. At this point I stay investment neutral as far as my inventory / portfolio. I only buy when I have sold something at retail and then buy as low as possible. Otherwise holding on to my buying cash.
The PCGS 3000 has dropped about 6.9% from a year ago. For numismatic coins that is the stat I monitor. One should be churning their numismatic portfolio. Long term hold is a thing of the past......only the wealthy can truly afford that.
First of all, Eliasberg, Pittman, Newman, and Bareford, and their collections, are not remotely germane to this discussion. They assembled their collections at a time when you could buy truly rare US coins for as little as a few times their face value!
It still appears to me that modern coins are finally making their move. This still isn't obvious to outsiders but those who know these markets and their depth can see that bids aren't being met and that demand is still increasing as supply continues to plummet.
Dunno. But I ...did.... send all my "dreck" to Russ this past year.
Very happy I did.
Kept my "swells" for enjoyment.
Enjoyment is my keyword for coins from here on til the END!
(I sure miss Russ! He did more exemplary WORK for less reward than anyone else I know)
I cannot seem to win a single (nice) coin at auction and it is not like I am low-balling. I think we have a big challenge in the coin community. Collector Education. As a dealer, I have a VERY hard time buying quality coins at Grey Sheet prices, yet a majority of collectors walk up to my table with Grey Sheet in hand and determine anything that is not close to those prices is over priced. I think, more and more "collectors" are actually acting like investors and looking for "good deals" and they think if they look long and hard enough that they can "buy nice coins cheap." And because it can happen once in a while, it creates a "hope springs eternal" dogma that partially explains what we are seeing.
MLAeBayNumismatics: "The greatest hobby in the world!"
@AMRC said:
I cannot seem to win a single (nice) coin at auction and it is not like I am low-balling. I think we have a big challenge in the coin community. Collector Education. As a dealer, I have a VERY hard time buying quality coins at Grey Sheet prices, yet a majority of collectors walk up to my table with Grey Sheet in hand and determine anything that is not close to those prices is over priced. I think, more and more "collectors" are actually acting like investors and looking for "good deals" and they think if they look long and hard enough that they can "buy nice coins cheap." And because it can happen once in a while, it creates a "hope springs eternal" dogma that partially explains what we are seeing.
That's true.
I spend a LOT of (retired) time "looking" at websites.
Fewer and fewer** "YOU BETTER BUY ME" **coins showing up.
I believe the supply of fresh estates coming on the market that people would rent hotel rooms to buy is drying up. It may already be gone for the most part. These were estate deals that had both good and sub par material resulting in buyers "averaging down" the offer to offset risk. This will be negative for people looking for wholesale deals, expect to pay full retail on better date and key coins if not some high demand modern issues also. I have not seen any super deals of fresh material at my table at shows in sometime nor has my B&M contact had anything to offer to go partners on. He says "you can only go to the estate well so many times, it may have seen its day."
At a recent show I attended many in the room were talking many coins have fallen into "strong hands" and they are not letting go any short of full price. I was kind of skeptical but I have had some surprising retail sales to well known dealers this year so far. Just dropped one off for shipment just now.
I fully expect prices will uptick and many caught offguard as the bids increase by double % digits weekly. I am always looking for 1934-S Dollars, 1926-S Dimes, 1913 halves, 1915 halves. 1931-S nickels, 1950 PF Halves, CC material, nice Bust Quarters Fine or better PCGS of course.....can't keep these in inventory, really thirsty for them. I have been beefing up my vintage inventory. Time to buy and bulk up may be now!
The new 2017 $100 High Relief Gold will be fantastic, I am gearing up for the chase to acquire a few. Seeing its photo in the recent NN I received this week forced me to the USM site. What a fantastic coin can hardly wait to see what they offer it for!
As far as those with greysheet walking up I don't mind telling them "or really, do you have one to sell me at that" or laughing "go open a shop."
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2008 was a great year
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
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Nobody can tell you if the coin market will turn higher in January. It's a silly question, as much as no one can tell you who will be elected president, or the price of oil, etc.
What I can offer is this: buying coins you enjoy will reap you benefits, not necessarily financial. If it's a rare coin, you stand a chance of its appreciating in value over time. I've seen the coin market boom and bust for different areas, so there's no telling the future. And timing such markets are virtually impossible, because what's available today may not be tomorrow. So enjoy the hobby, and if you a discerning collector you may enjoy profits too.
Sure wish that this "bear market" of the last years that people keep talking about applied to the coins I seek--XF to AU bust halves. (so-called "collector coins) Prices have just kept going up--not down. As for a coming "bull market"--Lord, I hope not. I can't afford to buy much at current prices--let alone higher ones.
It's the "investment coins" - generic silver and gold type, classic commems, Morgan and Peace dollars, etc) - that have come way down, and it's the investment coins that I expect to put in a bottom right about now. Although I do think that "collector coins" will continue to do well.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Nobody can predict those things with certainty, but you don't have to be right every time to succeed in the long run.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
So," investors" prefer common, shiny coins in TPG holders then.
Well, there are plenty of those to go around, and more "made" every day.
Like OK bustchaser, I haven't seen prices for well-circulated pre-1816 type come down very much at all, certainly not "way down". Although I wish they would "have a sale" on quality draped bust coinage, particularly R5 and better die varieties.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
You need to get out more and read about numismatic history. Long term holders who have done well? Eliasberg, Pittman, Newman, Bareford, and a slew of top collectors around here who sold off their collections in 2006-2008. Look at the results of some of the more modest collections hitting the auction block the past 1-2 years that were put together in the past 20 yrs....such as Rev McClure.
Any of the top quality coins I purchased in the 1970's through 1980's did quite well for themselves. While I didn't hang on to them all (I should have) the ones I did have done quite well. The real question is will buying today reap the same rewards in 30-40 years as buying in 1973-1977 and 1981-1983 did? Buying superb gem coins of scarcity back then resulted in gains of 5X to 50X. You didn't have to be "lucky" to do that. Just find the coins that had a reason to be successful and buy them. Even if you purchased more simple coins like semi-key date seated material in VF-AU resulted in 10X to 50X gains too. The hard part wasn't buying it....but hanging on to them all those years as your favorite coin guru's told you to buy Gem common date Morgans/Commems instead in 1980 and then again in 1989-1990.
US numismatic coins are a fully mature market. The days of huge gains (or perhaps any gains at all) are over for most coins. Gains for even the best material are likely to be moderate. The move to a cashless society is on the horizon and when it arrives all those "long term holds" of coins will be in big trouble. Out of sight is out of mind.
I believe for a lot of coins the money has already been wrung out of them. People can play the sticker game, but if they can't sell their stickered coins for more than they paid the joke is on them. USM products are expensive and fall in the aftermarket for the most part.
Generic coins I doubt seriously will see their 1989 highs anytime soon if ever.
Will the market uptick in January - more likely to fall would be my wager. At this point I stay investment neutral as far as my inventory / portfolio. I only buy when I have sold something at retail and then buy as low as possible. Otherwise holding on to my buying cash.
The PCGS 3000 has dropped about 6.9% from a year ago. For numismatic coins that is the stat I monitor. One should be churning their numismatic portfolio. Long term hold is a thing of the past......only the wealthy can truly afford that.
The FUN show is over. Has the bull market begun yet or not?
I don't know. The market is a lot more fickle than the hobby.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
It still appears to me that modern coins are finally making their move. This still isn't obvious to outsiders but those who know these markets and their depth can see that bids aren't being met and that demand is still increasing as supply continues to plummet.
Signs will become pretty obvious by spring.
Dunno. But I ...did.... send all my "dreck" to Russ this past year.
Very happy I did.
Kept my "swells" for enjoyment.
Enjoyment is my keyword for coins from here on til the END!
(I sure miss Russ! He did more exemplary WORK for less reward than anyone else I know)
I cannot seem to win a single (nice) coin at auction and it is not like I am low-balling. I think we have a big challenge in the coin community. Collector Education. As a dealer, I have a VERY hard time buying quality coins at Grey Sheet prices, yet a majority of collectors walk up to my table with Grey Sheet in hand and determine anything that is not close to those prices is over priced. I think, more and more "collectors" are actually acting like investors and looking for "good deals" and they think if they look long and hard enough that they can "buy nice coins cheap." And because it can happen once in a while, it creates a "hope springs eternal" dogma that partially explains what we are seeing.
That's true.
I spend a LOT of (retired) time "looking" at websites.
Fewer and fewer** "YOU BETTER BUY ME" **coins showing up.
The Feb 14 issue of Numismatic News arrived at my post office today. I chuckled when I read the headline of the "Coin Market at a Glance" column:
"Bull market seems to have started at FUN"
And no, I did not pay Richard Giedroyc to write that, but only because it never occurred to me.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I believe the supply of fresh estates coming on the market that people would rent hotel rooms to buy is drying up. It may already be gone for the most part. These were estate deals that had both good and sub par material resulting in buyers "averaging down" the offer to offset risk. This will be negative for people looking for wholesale deals, expect to pay full retail on better date and key coins if not some high demand modern issues also. I have not seen any super deals of fresh material at my table at shows in sometime nor has my B&M contact had anything to offer to go partners on. He says "you can only go to the estate well so many times, it may have seen its day."
At a recent show I attended many in the room were talking many coins have fallen into "strong hands" and they are not letting go any short of full price. I was kind of skeptical but I have had some surprising retail sales to well known dealers this year so far. Just dropped one off for shipment just now.
I fully expect prices will uptick and many caught offguard as the bids increase by double % digits weekly. I am always looking for 1934-S Dollars, 1926-S Dimes, 1913 halves, 1915 halves. 1931-S nickels, 1950 PF Halves, CC material, nice Bust Quarters Fine or better PCGS of course.....can't keep these in inventory, really thirsty for them. I have been beefing up my vintage inventory. Time to buy and bulk up may be now!
The new 2017 $100 High Relief Gold will be fantastic, I am gearing up for the chase to acquire a few. Seeing its photo in the recent NN I received this week forced me to the USM site. What a fantastic coin can hardly wait to see what they offer it for!
As far as those with greysheet walking up I don't mind telling them "or really, do you have one to sell me at that" or laughing "go open a shop."