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Don't buy the Redbook...
cladking
Posts: 28,731 ✭✭✭✭✭
...If you are collecting moderns.
The problem is that the pricing is a mess for moderns. Other coin prices are at full retail but moderns are sometimes listed at a fraction of wholesale. If you think you can buy a nice well made and chBU 1982-P quarter for $3 you'll have another think coming. Nice AU's sell for much more on eBay. Indeed, if you want a nice strike from good dies without too much marking you'll pay about $500. The coins that sell as chBU are generally going to run around $50 on eBay. This date is notoriously poorly struck from poor dies so truly choice coins are somewhat scarce. The date is widely overgraded and grossly underpriced.
The real irony is that the original author of the Red Book was the very first modern coin collector. RS Yeoman was suggesting these coins would be valuable some day as early as 1967. Now it appears that they are bashing moderns and they certainly are impeding the markets for moderns with the pricing. This may not be entirely their fault since these markets are still immature but the bottom line is that modern collectors will do far better if they don't buy and don't look at this book.
The problem is that the pricing is a mess for moderns. Other coin prices are at full retail but moderns are sometimes listed at a fraction of wholesale. If you think you can buy a nice well made and chBU 1982-P quarter for $3 you'll have another think coming. Nice AU's sell for much more on eBay. Indeed, if you want a nice strike from good dies without too much marking you'll pay about $500. The coins that sell as chBU are generally going to run around $50 on eBay. This date is notoriously poorly struck from poor dies so truly choice coins are somewhat scarce. The date is widely overgraded and grossly underpriced.
The real irony is that the original author of the Red Book was the very first modern coin collector. RS Yeoman was suggesting these coins would be valuable some day as early as 1967. Now it appears that they are bashing moderns and they certainly are impeding the markets for moderns with the pricing. This may not be entirely their fault since these markets are still immature but the bottom line is that modern collectors will do far better if they don't buy and don't look at this book.
tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
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During the 25-30 years I was following better date seated material closely, the Red Book wasn't much help for that. But, the RB was useful for much of the US coinage. I would think that experts looking for 1983 Washington quarters don't mind one bit that the RB pricing is not reflective of well strong/choice specimens. That just increases the chances they can find one inexpensively. The price you can get when selling will still be what the market dictates, regardless if Red Book is out of sync.
You can get these $200 coins for $10 - $20
I admit that I am no fan of moderns. That said, don't you think that the real problem is the lack of a viable two-way market for these? While many want to sell for $50 or $500 my question is what are they paying when they are offered similar coins for sale. There is also the problem that many dealers simply don't want to handle such coins because they just don't want their capital tied up in them. I recall a few years back having a discussion with a local dealer on this subject. His comment was that walk-in business for that kind of material was essentially zero. Perhaps things have now changed because of the web.
Certainly this can be an issue but it's not the issue to which I am referring here. I'd prefer to try to avoid this issue in this thread so won't even comment at this time.
The problem here is that some of these markets are no longer so terribly immature and it's these prices that are being underreported. I'm using the '82-P quarter as an example so will stick with it. There may be no more than perhaps 3,000 nice chBU examples of this date as defined by a good strike with a good die and without much marking. Of course moderns must have nice surfaces to be of interest to collectors and this requirement does keep a few coins out of chBU (MS-63). They must be "shiny" and have original and pleasing surfaces. Some dies made very few of these befoire making dull and lifeless surfaces for this date. These coins are graded everywhere between MS-63 and MS-67 because true Gems for the date probably don't even exist. When one is put on eBay whether graded or ungraded it will usually sell around $50. Graded examples sell for up to about $700 and probably higher for choicer specimens. As nearly as I can tell these prices seem to be consistent. The Redbook lists this coin for $3 even the WHOLESALE price of a roll of MS-60 coins is even higher than $3!!!
This has to be suppressing the market. Many collectors of moderns and clads are newbies and if they don't know what the reality is they'll never be able to buy a specimen even if they're capable and willing to spend $50. Who is going to pay $50 for a coin they think is a $3 item? Some of these collectors are still waiting to buy a $3 specimen, some have given up and lost interest, and some have purchased an AU purported to be an Unc. In each case the demand is being suppressed so the thin supply is not apparent.
A market can't mature while the price guides are wildly inaccurate.
Of course there's very little walk in busuiness for moderns but this is merely indicative of the very thin demand and the thin demand is a reflection of many forces but half a century of people treating the coins like garbage has not been beneficial to increasing demand. Let's face it, mostpeople have little interest in moderns and this isn't necessarily surprising. What is surprising is that at this late date the scarcity of a coin like a nice chBU '82-P quarter is not apparent. I blame the publishers of the price guides because most of the real modern bashing ended years ago.
Moderns need there own "Redbook"
Just like music, US coins are descending into niche / subdivided markets.
Moderns. Classics. Prince. Jimi. Marketing moves along the onshore waves of the internet. Offshore waves take longer. MHO
Aren't most of the price guides generally a mess for the majority of moderns, with the norm being highly inflated prices due to high retail margins? It might make you feel good but you'll get a surprise when it's time to sell.
Price reporting of moderns is a mixed bag. Probably Krause is the worst. They report some very low value coins at very high prices and vice versa. Generally speaking most of the largest discrepancies and the most numerous are underreportings. If you want a real idea of pricing you have to turn to the home market and then most of these are in a foreign language. They underreport as well but their prices are correlated to the real market. ie- all the pricing will be off about the same percentage.
Sure it's great when you're buying but you still need to sell eventually. It's the demand being stymied. Markets are defined by supply and demand and an articially low price leads to artificially low demand. Knowledgeable collectors don't pay much attention to price guides whether they're collecting seated quarters or Japanese aluminum coin.
Plus, criticisms of the prices in Red Book can also be directed at any price guide including the PCGS one. You can't lay your complete trust in any price guide as you're better to watch the market (auctions, Ebay, etc.) to understand the true prices of whatever coins you want to buy (or sell).
Check out the PCGS Price Guide for Roosevelt 70 Proofs and compare that to what they actually sell for on eBay.
You can get these $200 coins for $10 - $20
Indeed.
But these are more specialized markets and the supply is virtually "elastic" because it depends on definitions and demand. The supply of nice choice '82-P quarters is not at all elastic and is fixed. The demand for circulating quarters is also higher than the demand for Proof dimes.
There are at least a few thousand fairly advanced clad quarter collectors. I'm defining "advanced" in this instance as collectors who have knowledge of the characteristics and availability of each date. Obviously many of these collectors still don't have a nice choice '82-P. I would imagine that they don't feel any rush to complete their collections since the price guides don't get updated frequently and they might still find one for $3 in a dealers stock.
Moderns have never really become popular and price "increases" are just late reflections of market changes as individuial coins or seriers are affected by increased demand.
With the advent of the internet and other sources of pricing guides and indicators, I don't buy the Red Book for the prices. I buy it for the information in it.
Plus, criticisms of the prices in Red Book can also be directed at any price guide including the PCGS one. You can't lay your complete trust in any price guide as you're better to watch the market (auctions, Ebay, etc.) to understand the true prices of whatever coins you want to buy (or sell).
Indeed!
In my opinion many things become obsolete because they're allowed to become obsolete.
I like the Redbook for the information but if one collects only moderns and has no interest in the older coins there's not much need for it. One would be better served spending the money on a folder or album.
Check out the PCGS Price Guide for Roosevelt 70 Proofs and compare that to what they actually sell for on eBay.
You can get these $200 coins for $10 - $20
Not all of the PCGS prices are high, some of them are way too low. The 1991-d dime in ms66fb is a pop 1/0 with a PG value of $1,000 (used to be $325). This coin was sold in the last 12 months for 5 figures. I'm just trying to point out the irregularities in all pricing data available not just the PCGS PG. Someone intimately familiar with modern coins needs to put a proper price guide together based on pops and knowledge of modern coins, not just statistical data.
Moderns need there own "Redbook" I for one would buy it if it was put together using actual data for actual sales. A lot of work though....Eric and Mitch could make that happen!!
A comprehensive listing of all moderns would be a big undertaking.
It's certainly something I would buy.
Does anyone use the red book for pricing?
Does anyone collect anything minted after 1964?
I understand what you are saying.
I also understand that a portion of the Redbook audience could be mislead by such discrepancies.
I also appreciate your vigilant championing of the Moderns.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
A market can't mature while the price guides are wildly inaccurate.
The better date seated coin market matured just fine on its own from 1974-2004 while most, if not all price guides were generally out to lunch. It may have been a slow process but the players in that market knew their true values. And frankly, who cares if the 95-99% of people who don't regularly play in a specific market don't know those values? A lot of better date Barber and Bust coinage was also priced inaccurately during that same 30 year period....and they matured due to various reference books published along the way.
Maybe the lead in for the first post should be:
If you are collecting almost anything.....the Major Price Guide of record likely has serious shortcomings.
Does anyone use the red book for pricing?
Newbies don't know the price is retail. They don't know it's retail for old coins and a fraction of wholesale for modern coins. They don't know that the '60-D sm dt cent is one of the most common of all memorial cent rolls or that the 1986 in MS-60 is worth more than the Redbook says it's worth in MS-65.
Newbies don't know that the prices are skewed to make classics more expensive and moderns cheap. They don'tr know a true Gem 1984 penny with nice surfaces is a hundred times scarcer than a Gem 1909-VDB that lists for 65 times as much.
Many modern collectors are newbies and don't know they shouldn't even own a Redbook unless they also collect old coins.
Does anyone use the red book for pricing?
Does anyone collect anything minted after 1964?
Boy, there sure aren't many.
But this is the result of inertia and the status quo that just automatically trashes moderns. Maybe warning people about the nature of the reference material will help change this.
The better date seated coin market matured just fine on its own from 1974-2004 while most, if not all price guides were generally out to lunch. It may have been a slow process but the players in that market knew their true values. And frankly, who cares if the 95-99% of people who don't regularly play in a specific market don't know those values? A lot of better date Barber and Bust coinage was also priced inaccurately during that same 30 year period....and they matured due to various reference books published along the way.
Maybe the lead in for the first post should be:
If you are collecting almost anything.....the Major Price Guide of record likely has serious shortcomings.
People who collected better date seated coins between '74 and '04 were mostly experienced and extremely knowledgeable collectors. Many of the people collecting clad quarters today are relatively naive; they don't even know clad is "uncollectible".
I'd also wager the Redbook pricing for seated coinage in those days didn't range from 3% of true value to 2000%.
Does anyone use the red book for pricing?
Not since Al Gore invented the internet.
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I think the price guides actually discourage the new collector. They see all these modern coin prices at multiples of face value and then they go out and start collecting them. Take rolls of presidential dollars or state/national park quarters as an example. Then they try to sell them one day and realize they can't get even close to what the price guides say the coins are worth in unc. This new collector gets discourage and leaves the hobby after cashing the coins in at the local bank.
Check out the PCGS Price Guide for Roosevelt 70 Proofs and compare that to what they actually sell for on eBay.
You can get these $200 coins for $10 - $20
Indeed.
But these are more specialized markets and the supply is virtually "elastic" because it depends on definitions and demand. The supply of nice choice '82-P quarters is not at all elastic and is fixed. The demand for circulating quarters is also higher than the demand for Proof dimes.
There are at least a few thousand fairly advanced clad quarter collectors. I'm defining "advanced" in this instance as collectors who have knowledge of the characteristics and availability of each date. Obviously many of these collectors still don't have a nice choice '82-P. I would imagine that they don't feel any rush to complete their collections since the price guides don't get updated frequently and they might still find one for $3 in a dealers stock.
Moderns have never really become popular and price "increases" are just late reflections of market changes as individuial coins or seriers are affected by increased demand.
Most of these thousands of collectors must be non-Registry collectors that are just filling holes in coin books and are not concerned with grade and condition of the coins.
I don't know much about the other denoms, but there are just a few Roosie collectors that go for the top pop grades that fetch 4 figure money.
I need all the Roosie dates for my Complete Dime sets, but I don't venture into the upper grades of 68 or better unless they are cheap. The 66 and 67's are plenty good for me. But that is just me. I have all Roosies (except some varieties) and I buy each new year as they come out in 66FB. This is fine for me and they are cheap. Again this is my own way of collecting the modern era of my dimes.
I actually thought you were going to make the opposite argument. I find it amazing that the price guides list common clad coins at a such high prices and I can't find one dealer who even wants to buy them regardless of how nice they are if they are not graded. Try selling some clad IKE dollars, presidential dollars or state quarters to the average coin dealer and see how much they offer you. The price guides make it seem like you can strike it rich when in reality your just tying up your money.
I think the price guides actually discourage the new collector. They see all these modern coin prices at multiples of face value and then they go out and start collecting them. Take rolls of presidential dollars or state/national park quarters as an example. Then they try to sell them one day and realize they can't get even close to what the price guides say the coins are worth in unc. This new collector gets discourage and leaves the hobby after cashing the coins in at the local bank.
I would disagree with you on two points. Firstly, there are plenty of traditional coins that the average dealer wouldn't pay any where near red book values, so the argument that modern clad coins are discouraging collectors applies to traditional coins as well. Just try to sell some early circ wheat cents or buffalo nickels and see how close to red book you get.
Secondly, there are plenty of people who respect moderns including myself who would gladly pay red book for certain coins. Just ask the OP if he would buy 82 & 83 coins from you for that. As far as IKE dollars go, if you have some original bags there are plenty of people who would pay a premium for them. You just need to find someone who cares about moderns, and not just take your modern coins to any Joe who doesn't give a hoot.
I actually thought you were going to make the opposite argument. I find it amazing that the price guides list common clad coins at a such high prices and I can't find one dealer who even wants to buy them regardless of how nice they are if they are not graded. Try selling some clad IKE dollars, presidential dollars or state quarters to the average coin dealer and see how much they offer you. The price guides make it seem like you can strike it rich when in reality your just tying up your money.
I think the price guides actually discourage the new collector. They see all these modern coin prices at multiples of face value and then they go out and start collecting them. Take rolls of presidential dollars or state/national park quarters as an example. Then they try to sell them one day and realize they can't get even close to what the price guides say the coins are worth in unc. This new collector gets discourage and leaves the hobby after cashing the coins in at the local bank.
Exactrly. This is part of the problem as well. What isn't listed far far above retail proices is listed far far far below wholesale prices. The guides are highly misleading. Of course this isn't strictly because of editorial policy. You can't list a coin like an MS-60 1974-D for its wholesale value (less than 2c) and there's not enother demand to list the MS-65 price to reflect its difficulty.
To a large extent the catalogers are in a no-win situation but it's highly misleading to list any price and then never change it regeardless how much the market strenghtens. The prices for these coins are low solely due to the lack of demand but accurate price guides would be highly beneficial for the markets even if it means explanatory notres and some lower prices. At least collectors could see the markets are stronger and have an idea of what they'll actually pay.
Most of these thousands of collectors must be non-Registry collectors that are just filling holes in coin books and are not concerned with grade and condition of the coins.
There are lots of clad dime and obsolete quarter collectors now days of several different types. But the most numerous are very casual collectors who have relatively little expertise in coins. Most of those with any expertise are states quarter collectors.
Whitman and others have been selling folders for clads for years (incredibly there is still no album for just eagle reverse clad quarters!). It is largely these collectors whom I'm addressing. There are, of course, others who are putting together modern sets as simple collections, upgrades for collections assembled by wholesalers, or registry set collectors. The aggregate demand for scarcities is sufficient to make the scarcities sell for pretty good prices on eBay. But it's these little collectors which number well into the hundreds of thousands who are missing out if they go by the price guides.
Most collectors learn early on that they want a nice attractive specimen whether than means MS-64 or choiceVF. They'll learn this even sooner in clads because difference between ugly clads and nice clads is much greater than other coins. The majority of clads were poorly made by poor dies and have not worn well. They are often corroded or damaged. Most coins have multiple severe issues.
It's generally not wise to question virtually Anything Cladking has to say about modern coins, especially Clad ones.
That's a relief!
I was afraid you were going to disagree with me about something and no one knows these markets better than you do.
Just ask the OP if he would buy 82 & 83 coins from you for that. As far as IKE dollars go, if you have some original bags there are plenty of people who would pay a premium for them. You just need to find someone who cares about moderns, and not just take your modern coins to any Joe who doesn't give a hoot.
I was advertising to pay $40 each for any '82 or '83 Gem quarter back in the 1990's. I'd have paid it for really nice MS-63's and 4's that the Redbook lists for a few dollars. They are no more common today and the demand is far higher.
Some dealers will still tell you to just "spend them" if you take in a roll of gemmy '83-P. There just isn't enough demand to sell good moderns to dealers.
HH
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
I would gladly pay Redbook prices for properly graded MS-65 1965-1990 clads.
For the main part I bet I could outbid you on most dates. I'd be outbid on a few.
But a few of these are too high. The '72-D quarter, for instance, is pretty "common" in MS-65 yet it lists for $4. "Common" in this case means about half a million.
Half a million would be nothing if it were an old coin but for a modern there is far less demand. The prices just aren't in line with supply or demand. More importantly they aren't in line with actual market prices.
Just my two cents.
Wondercoin
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
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I view the Redbook as a general guide for newbies. It is also good for mintage numbers and basic info about each series. It is not to be relied upon as gospel for pricing! Just my humble opinion.
It's great for newbies collecting anything except moderns. If a newbie is collecting buffalo nickels and Jeffersons he needs it. But if he's only collecting Jeffersons to date then he's probably better off not owning it at all.
It becomes near impossible for any price guide to be completely on top of every price. When you also add in all the main condition possibilities it is obviously daunting in the extreme. So, I think it comes down to what you specialize in. The collector who concentrates on certain issues is going to be his or her own expert. If they do the homework, they are going to beat any general pricelist every time.
For example, I have been putting most of my attention on Lincoln Cent Matte Proofs. That is a group of coins that only ran for 8 years. I know from my own experience that the Red Book is way off on their prices for these. For example, they have the 1909 VDB proof listed for under $3,000 at PR63. Good luck getting that coin for under $12,000!
The Red Book is still a fantastic value due to all the information it offers. It can be a great starting place for the collector and it certainly gives you a solid idea of where the true rarities are in all the different series. I think it has always been a remarkable resource and I refer to it practically on a daily basis.
What I like to do is use about 3 different price lists. Usually you can get a very good feel for value if you can compare different sources in that way. Of course it is very important to watch the trends, sales and prices as they change. Our host does a pretty darn good job of that for collectors IMO.
After nearly 70 years running, why would the Red Book still show a proof 63 1909 VDB cent at under $3,000 (PCGS Price Guide at $8,500 in 63BN). Wasn't that an easy fix many moons ago?
Ditto for erroneous Mintage figures on some moderns last I checked.
Wondercoin
Isn't there a book in the Bower's Red Book series on moderns? If not, there should be one. That's where this special pricing information should be found. Maybe the Mega Red Book as well.
I checked QDBs pricing in the Washington Quarter guide book (2005 I think), Regular Red Book from 2011 (latest I have), and last years Mega Red.
There is really no great difference in MS-65 prices in any of the three.
The standard Red Book's pricing only goes to MS-65, QDBs quarter Red Book lists prices thru MS-66, and Mega Red has pricing in MS-67 grades.
HH
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!