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Premiums on Unopened Material
70ToppsFanatic
Posts: 2,104 ✭✭✭✭
Given the side discussions going on along these lines in several other threads it seemed like it might be
a reasonable idea to give the topic a thread of its own.
So what do people think are the drivers of these premiums. Some I the things I would
suggest include:
-Original Seal (i.e. sealed case, from a sealed case, from a sealed box)
- Graded by a TPG (e.g. PSA, GAI, etc.) and does it matter which TPG and/or what the grade is
- Authenticated and sealed by recognized industry expert
- Scarcity of the item (in terms of known/estimated population)
And in your thinking what valuation in the premium do each of these factors contribute? What should the premium be?
What do people think?
a reasonable idea to give the topic a thread of its own.
So what do people think are the drivers of these premiums. Some I the things I would
suggest include:
-Original Seal (i.e. sealed case, from a sealed case, from a sealed box)
- Graded by a TPG (e.g. PSA, GAI, etc.) and does it matter which TPG and/or what the grade is
- Authenticated and sealed by recognized industry expert
- Scarcity of the item (in terms of known/estimated population)
And in your thinking what valuation in the premium do each of these factors contribute? What should the premium be?
What do people think?
Dave
0
Comments
One caveat, I did not do price comparisons to validate my statements above. So these are just my opinions.
IN other words, there may be a number of boxes with original BBCE wrap ( I have some) that do not say from a sealed case, but may very well have come from a sealed case.
I can understand, moving forward, that if given a choice, from a sealed case compared to not having such a distinction, folks would choose the box from the sealed case. However, assuming you don't have the 86 Fleer Basketball issue (knowing the sequence etc...), I am wondering if there should really be much of a premium on "from a sealed case" for wax boxes.
Now Cello and Rack boxes are a whole different ball game. Due to searching for guys on top and bottom, I would think "From a sealed case" on both Rack and Cello boxes would definitely carry a premium. What exactly these premiums are, I would be interested in hearing folks thoughts.
Unopened Boxes, Packs, Cards, and Tickets
Just send me a PM or email me for discount off eBay pricing. Thanks
The fact that we all do these rips, the unopened product continues to becomes more scarce
You're the cool kid if you have an unopened box of something that everyone else wants (more so now than ever before)
I do have boxes from Steve that were FASC but not marked as such back when he used the clear wrap and gold business card.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I would place a premium of 15% on a box FASC for wax and twice that, or 30%, for rack or cello.
I do have boxes from Steve that were FASC but not marked as such back when he used the clear wrap and gold business card. >>
In regards to that 1975 Topps Cello box for $3,950, a FASC box should net at least $5,000, right? And I agree with that. FASC, while not as critical on wax, but on cellos and racks should reflect a premium that easily differentiates the two products apart...
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
How many times do you see a nice mark free box sell for more than an X-out?
80's football may be the most returned to Topps product out there LoL!
Not all X-outs are tampered, but the odds are definitely greater since the chance was presented at one point
But who is to stop someone from repacking X-out boxes with clean mark free boxes and then
getting them authenticated. Happens all the time
I am sure most collectors aesthetically enjoy the look of a Non X-out in the end
Its labeled FASC and it's an X-out. What's the premium there if any?
<< <i>I have a box of 84 Topps Baseball that I got from a Group Rip here a couple years ago
Its labeled FASC and it's an X-out. What's the premium there if any? >>
I know this is going to sound dumb but how do you get a "returned" X-out box and label it from a sealed case? Was the case not already open?
<< <i>
<< <i>I have a box of 84 Topps Baseball that I got from a Group Rip here a couple years ago
Its labeled FASC and it's an X-out. What's the premium there if any? >>
I know this is going to sound dumb but how do you get a "returned" X-out box and label it from a sealed case? Was the case not already open? >>
Topps would get the returns from vendors and mark them. And then reseal them in cases marked No Return
So essentially it is again sealed in a case and resold from Topps
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I have a box of 84 Topps Baseball that I got from a Group Rip here a couple years ago
Its labeled FASC and it's an X-out. What's the premium there if any? >>
I know this is going to sound dumb but how do you get a "returned" X-out box and label it from a sealed case? Was the case not already open? >>
Topps would get the returns from vendors and mark them. And then reseal them in cases marked No Return
So essentially it is again sealed in a case and resold from Topps >>
In theory I agree but who know what those boxes were subjected to during the month they were out of Topps hands? I can't imagine an X-out box marked from FASC could have any premium attached to it. Then again, maybe I am wrong...
<< <i>
<< <i>I have a box of 84 Topps Baseball that I got from a Group Rip here a couple years ago
Its labeled FASC and it's an X-out. What's the premium there if any? >>
I know this is going to sound dumb but how do you get a "returned" X-out box and label it from a sealed case? Was the case not already open? >>
It is not a dumb question as it has been asked many times before you and will probably be asked many times after as new collectors get into unopened. What Topps would do is take all the returned boxes and put them back into cases for resale. Please note that just because a box was returned to Topps that doesn't mean it was pieced by together from partial boxes. I'd say the vast majority were original boxes that did not sell. Now it is possible that some of the boxes were reassembled by the customer who was returning them, but I would think most of the time packs were sold from a single box at a time or a few at most. Hope that makes sense.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>In theory I agree but who know what those boxes were subjected to during the month they were out of Topps hands? I can't imagine an X-out box marked from FASC could have any premium attached to it. Than again, maybe I am wrong... >>
It's a crap shoot... even if a merchant returned an entire sealed case to Topps, Topps opened it and marked the boxes before resealing the case. So an x-out could be a pristine box of untouched packs.... or it could be thrown together from a bunch of loose packs sitting on a shelf or in a display. One thing I look for with x-out, is how nice the display box is. My thinking is that if the display box is in pretty nice condition (not crushed, no tears, perforation still in tact)... then chances are it didn't get put out in a retail display.
I will admit, I dramatically overpaid a while back for some primi 1978 and 1979 rack boxes. I mean way overpaid. Fortunately for me I am back in the black because of the runup of the past two years. Bottom line, I knew the guy was 100% solid, and I had to have it. I think we all may be guilty of overpaying, sometimes by a large amount, because we have our sights on something special. Not only is unopened getting super rare, it's even rarer to find unopened from that 100% solid source.
The recent 1975 sealed mini wax boxes technically didn't even command a premium at $3K each. Steve sold a single box FASC for $3,250 about three days before he shot us our deal. That was an 8% premium. I would have paid $3,250 if that's what he wanted. . .
<< <i>I would say provenance plays an important role. For example, the fact Fritch's product has been sitting in their warehouse since shipped from the Topps factory plays a role in commanding higher prices. I also think the seller plays a role too. I think when BBCE sells a product, it goes for more than Joe Ebay selling the same product, even if both have BBCE shrink wrap on them. This is partly due to the fact that buyers seek out BBCE auctions/website for unopened where they don't necessarily seek out Joe Ebay's auctions.
One caveat, I did not do price comparisons to validate my statements above. So these are just my opinions. >>
i like Joe Ebay. there's a few guys around here thriving on Joe Ebay auctions for raw material and then converting them to BBCE wrapped. i'd say there's a fine premium waiting for those who can successfully make that conversion several times over in a short period.
i like Joe Ebay. there's a few guys around here thriving on Joe Ebay auctions for raw material and then converting them to BBCE wrapped. i'd say there's a fine premium waiting for those who can successfully make that conversion several times over in a short period. >>
Not many on here can take the thousand plus dollar risk of a resealed headache. I'd say there is a premium on FASC but limited to those items where sealed cases aren't abundant.
<< <i>There's something really cool about looking at a box with clean packs that's like 35 to 40 years old. >>
+1
I'd say there is a premium on FASC but limited to those items where sealed cases aren't abundant.
I agree. Tim you are pretty close to where I would put the premium for cello and racks. But only on stuff that is not abundant
TheClockworkAngelCollection
<< <i>I haven't followed each group rip but it seems like this stuff took a huge leap between the last group rip and this one. as others have said, the slow selling of most of the 1970's just shows that there is a price point that hits a dead end right now and we may have found it or even overshot it. It's not indicative of a change in market conditions as much as finding a price point. If these prices were lowered to somewhere near they sold for on the last rip I think we'd sell out >>
I would agree with this assessment.
As for an 81 wax box, retail for a regular BBCE box is about $250, so I would put a box FASC at about $285-$300.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>I haven't followed each group rip but it seems like this stuff took a huge leap between the last group rip and this one. as others have said, the slow selling of most of the 1970's just shows that there is a price point that hits a dead end right now and we may have found it or even overshot it. It's not indicative of a change in market conditions as much as finding a price point. If these prices were lowered to somewhere near they sold for on the last rip I think we'd sell out >>
I would agree with this assessment.
As for an 81 wax box, retail for a regular BBCE box is about $250, so I would put a box FASC at about $285-$300. >>
I have been watching 1981 very closely. Steve had them at $240 a few months back, not FASC. Then they are showing $275 now but no inventory on the BBCE site. On eBay they are pretty much $300.00 wrapped by BBCE. I think FASC is probably $325-350 range IMO.
On a side note, Steel City has a sealed case for $7,000...
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I haven't followed each group rip but it seems like this stuff took a huge leap between the last group rip and this one. as others have said, the slow selling of most of the 1970's just shows that there is a price point that hits a dead end right now and we may have found it or even overshot it. It's not indicative of a change in market conditions as much as finding a price point. If these prices were lowered to somewhere near they sold for on the last rip I think we'd sell out >>
I would agree with this assessment.
As for an 81 wax box, retail for a regular BBCE box is about $250, so I would put a box FASC at about $285-$300. >>
I have been watching 1981 very closely. Steve had them at $240 a few months back, not FASC. Then they are showing $275 now but no inventory on the BBCE site. On eBay they are pretty much $300.00 wrapped by BBCE. I think FASC is probably $325-350 range IMO.
On a side note, Steel City has a sealed case for $7,000... >>
$300 for an 81 wax box not FASC is too high, imo. The case though is fairly priced.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>How much would a 1981 Topps BB Wax BBCE FASC go for? It looks like a regular BBCE box goes from $270-$300, based on the comments here, $350? >>
Barring any nonsense, we're about to find out (auction format)
<< <i>
<< <i>How much would a 1981 Topps BB Wax BBCE FASC go for? It looks like a regular BBCE box goes from $270-$300, based on the comments here, $350? >>
Barring any nonsense, we're about to find out (auction format) >>
That's a forum member's auction. Great guy to deal with.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>How much would a 1981 Topps BB Wax BBCE FASC go for? It looks like a regular BBCE box goes from $270-$300, based on the comments here, $350? >>
Barring any nonsense, we're about to find out (auction format) >>
Isn't the seller a board member?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>How much would a 1981 Topps BB Wax BBCE FASC go for? It looks like a regular BBCE box goes from $270-$300, based on the comments here, $350? >>
Barring any nonsense, we're about to find out (auction format) >>
Isn't the seller a board member? >>
That box belongs to Peter Bria (stand up guy) and I'll bet anything it hits $300 tonight...
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I haven't followed each group rip but it seems like this stuff took a huge leap between the last group rip and this one. as others have said, the slow selling of most of the 1970's just shows that there is a price point that hits a dead end right now and we may have found it or even overshot it. It's not indicative of a change in market conditions as much as finding a price point. If these prices were lowered to somewhere near they sold for on the last rip I think we'd sell out >>
I would agree with this assessment.
As for an 81 wax box, retail for a regular BBCE box is about $250, so I would put a box FASC at about $285-$300. >>
I have been watching 1981 very closely. Steve had them at $240 a few months back, not FASC. Then they are showing $275 now but no inventory on the BBCE site. On eBay they are pretty much $300.00 wrapped by BBCE. I think FASC is probably $325-350 range IMO.
On a side note, Steel City has a sealed case for $7,000... >>
$300 for an 81 wax box not FASC is too high, imo. The case though is fairly priced. >>
Just look in the eBay completed:
$350
$325
$300
$284 <<<----- over 3-mos ago
And all I would assume have a few bucks shipping on it???
<< <i>That box belongs to Peter Bria (stand up guy) >>
I guess I should have known that was him, but Fla threw me off the scent. Could have sworn he sent me a package from RI once or twice before.
Have dealt with Peter multiple times, and yep, he's definitely an asset to the boards. We should receive a good gauge after his auction ends tonight.
If you're reading this, best of luck, Peter!
<< <i>I would place a premium of 15% on a box FASC for wax and twice that, or 30%, for rack or cello.
I'd say there is a premium on FASC but limited to those items where sealed cases aren't abundant.
I agree. Tim you are pretty close to where I would put the premium for cello and racks. But only on stuff that is not abundant >>
Manny makes a good point about non-abundance. The more of a product that exists, the less the premium is likely to be. Consider 1975 Topps BB mini boxes, which we now see getting about an 8% premium when FASC. On the other hand, if a 1977 baseball box that is not from a sealed case is selling at $3250 then the same box FASC with a 15% premium would be priced at about $3750. We haven't seen these very often in the last few years, so I'd guess we'd actually see such a box get a little more than that.
I think Tim's 15% figure represents an average, that can vary by about 2/3 (+/- 10%) in either direction based on many of the factors that have been raised.
Dave
Just look in the eBay completed:
$350
$325
$300
$284 <<<----- over 3-mos ago
And all I would assume have a few bucks shipping on it???
Are you responsible for driving those prices up, Anthony?? LOL....1981 historically has mirrored pricing with 1982 Topps which has flatlined at $250 for quite a while now. Those are some strong prices for 81. I may have to sell a couple of my boxes now.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Thanks for pointing that auction out.
<< <i>I guess I will find out my answer in 12 hours or so.
Thanks for pointing that auction out. >>
Peter says thank you, too, LOL..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>How much would a 1981 Topps BB Wax BBCE FASC go for? It looks like a regular BBCE box goes from $270-$300, based on the comments here, $350? >>
I bought one recently for $300. I overpaid, but boy she was sweet. I know 1981 isn't the best year, but it's one of my favs from the 80s.
<< <i>Just look in the eBay completed:
$350
$325
$300
$284 <<<----- over 3-mos ago
And all I would assume have a few bucks shipping on it???
Are you responsible for driving those prices up, Anthony?? LOL....1981 historically has mirrored pricing with 1982 Topps which has flatlined at $250 for quite a while now. Those are some strong prices for 81. I may have to sell a couple of my boxes now.
Unfortunately no, it wasn't me but I do partake in overpaying at times though, lol...
<< <i>Anybody have a personal formula for determining the premium to pay for packs with stars on front? I.e., value of pack plus 1.5 x value of card? That's one thing I've often struggled with... I have to look at past sales on eBay and/or remember what Steve last sold them for. >>
I think Grote used to see what I was bidding and bid a dollar more.
I think one and a half is a good gauge unless it is a rookie card then I'd say at least double. I also factor in the condition of the pack, the centering of the star card, etc.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>
<< <i>Anybody have a personal formula for determining the premium to pay for packs with stars on front? I.e., value of pack plus 1.5 x value of card? That's one thing I've often struggled with... I have to look at past sales on eBay and/or remember what Steve last sold them for. >>
I think Grote used to see what I was bidding and bid a dollar more. >>
I used to take what you were bidding and then add what Tim was bidding and then add a few thousand dollars. I don't ever recall losing an auction with that formula.
<< <i>Anybody have a personal formula for determining the premium to pay for packs with stars on front? I.e., value of pack plus 1.5 x value of card? That's one thing I've often struggled with... I have to look at past sales on eBay and/or remember what Steve last sold them for. >>
Not for stars showing, but I have a simple formula for BB vs FB....
Baseball=Awesome, buy it up!!
Football=Worthless, leave it alone!! As a matter of fact, run like you are being shot at!!
(OK, maybe im biased
<< <i>I guess I will find out my answer in 12 hours or so.
Thanks for pointing that auction out. >>
And your answer is: $295.77 + $12.00 S/H = $307.77 <<<-----