Price guide - 1814 statesof - get real!

EastonCollection · July 9, 2014 7:37PM

I really like the PCGS price guide and I use it as a starting point for my coin pricing methodology. However, in some cases, I find it totally useless. For example, one of my favorite capped bust dimes variety is the 1814 statesof dime. PCGS has graded only 30 of them making that variety rare and scarce by my thinking. The grade, population with price is as follows - vf35 pop 2 - $1,100, XF45 pop 1 - $1,750, AU55 pop 1 - $2,450, AU58 pop 2 - $3,000. PCGS hasn't graded any higher than the AU58s but price guide for MS61 is $5,000 and MS62 $6,500.
If you go to shows, your lucky to locate 1 1814 statesof and many auctions don't have them either. I understand coin pricing is based on supply and demand but heck - there aren't many out there to even make an offer - Supply and demand is very thin - So, PCGS updates pricing regularly for traded coins but for none traded coin like the 1814 statesof - the price guide is completely useless IMHO. When I called PCGS to update the price they aren't able because there hasn't been any recent deals. What suggestions can we give PCGS to make their price guide more useful for those coins that get traded very infrequently?
One thought is the PCGS or a panel of experts could review the price guide for those coins that haven't traded during the past 2 to 3 years to determine if the price is appropriate. And BTW - the price guide for AU58 at the start of 2013 was $4,000 - so the price has gone down for the top pop!

pcunix · July 9, 2014 8:01PM

<< <i>I really like the PCGS price guide and I use it as a starting point for my coin pricing methodology. However, in some cases, I find it totally useless. For example, one of my favorite capped bust dimes variety is the 1814 statesof dime. PCGS has graded only 30 of them making that variety rare and scarce by my thinking. The grade, population with price is as follows - vf35 pop 2 - $1,100, XF45 pop 1 - $1,750, AU55 pop 1 - $2,450, AU58 pop 2 - $3,000. PCGS hasn't graded any higher than the AU58s but price guide for MS61 is $5,000 and MS62 $6,500.
If you go to shows, your lucky to locate 1 1814 statesof and many auctions don't have them either. I understand coin pricing is based on supply and demand but heck - there aren't many out there to even make an offer - Supply and demand is very thin - So, PCGS updates pricing regularly for traded coins but for none traded coin like the 1814 statesof - the price guide is completely useless IMHO. When I called PCGS to update the price they aren't able because there hasn't been any recent deals. What suggestions can we give PCGS to make their price guide more useful for those coins that get traded very infrequently?
One thought is the PCGS or a panel of experts could review the price guide for those coins that haven't traded during the past 2 to 3 years to determine if the price is appropriate. And BTW - the price guide for AU58 at the start of 2013 was $4,000 - so the price has gone down for the top pop! >>

So if there hasn't been market activity, they are supposed to guess at a new price? I can't see how they could do that unless they had access to a crystal ball. Should the price be higher because other varieties have climbed? Or maybe the demand side has become even thinner and it should go down? How could they know?

I do agree that leaving a price stagnant isn't helpful either. Perhaps such prices should be noted as "possibly out of date", but the auction dates tell you that already, right?

Treashunt · July 9, 2014 9:08PM

<< <i>

<< <i>I really like the PCGS price guide and I use it as a starting point for my coin pricing methodology. However, in some cases, I find it totally useless. For example, one of my favorite capped bust dimes variety is the 1814 statesof dime. PCGS has graded only 30 of them making that variety rare and scarce by my thinking. The grade, population with price is as follows - vf35 pop 2 - $1,100, XF45 pop 1 - $1,750, AU55 pop 1 - $2,450, AU58 pop 2 - $3,000. PCGS hasn't graded any higher than the AU58s but price guide for MS61 is $5,000 and MS62 $6,500.
If you go to shows, your lucky to locate 1 1814 statesof and many auctions don't have them either. I understand coin pricing is based on supply and demand but heck - there aren't many out there to even make an offer - Supply and demand is very thin - So, PCGS updates pricing regularly for traded coins but for none traded coin like the 1814 statesof - the price guide is completely useless IMHO. When I called PCGS to update the price they aren't able because there hasn't been any recent deals. What suggestions can we give PCGS to make their price guide more useful for those coins that get traded very infrequently?
One thought is the PCGS or a panel of experts could review the price guide for those coins that haven't traded during the past 2 to 3 years to determine if the price is appropriate. And BTW - the price guide for AU58 at the start of 2013 was $4,000 - so the price has gone down for the top pop! >>

So if there hasn't been market activity, they are supposed to guess at a new price? I can't see how they could do that unless they had access to a crystal ball. Should the price be higher because other varieties have climbed? Or maybe the demand side has become even thinner and it should go down? How could they know?

I do agree that leaving a price stagnant isn't helpful either. Perhaps such prices should be noted as "possibly out of date", but the auction dates tell you that already, right? >>

agreed, there has to be a basis for a change

ms70 · July 9, 2014 9:21PM

I don't know if you'll find this helpful or not, but when I'm looking at a pricey coin, I research on the Heritage auction archives, eBay completed auctions, and the PCGS guide. I average the highest prices and consider that the ceiling. If one of them shows an exceptionally high or low anomaly I disregard that price.

Nap · July 9, 2014 10:04PM

You picked a relatively obscure example, but there are plenty of coins that fall into this category. Anything excessively rare is subject to fairly significant price changes due to one or two sales. Price does not always go up, because small changes in demand can large price movements make.

I think PCGS does quite a good job on their price estimates, and I appreciate that they make them freely availabe. As is typically said, when an ultra-rare coin comes up for auction, you can "throw away the price guides"

Nysoto · July 9, 2014 11:30PM

<< <i> PCGS has graded only 30 of them making that variety rare and scarce by my thinking >>

The variety is not "rare" as it is an R-3 rarity, with an estimated 201-500 survivors in all grades, making it "scarce" by the Sheldon scale. PCGS has not been recognizing some varieties for the entire length of time they have been grading coins, making it appear that some of these are rare, when they are really not (1795/1795 two leaves .50 is an example). If more people begin collecting Redbook sets of bust dimes, prices will go up for the variety.

Unknown · July 9, 2014 11:44PM

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Unknown · July 9, 2014 11:45PM

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291fifth · July 9, 2014 11:46PM

Supply and demand rules all collectible markets. The coin you are talking about is a variety so the market for it is going to be thin to begin with.

CoinRaritiesOnline · July 9, 2014 11:49PM

This sort of issue exits across the PCGS price guide and all other price guides for rare, thinly trade coins.

Unknown · July 10, 2014 12:05AM

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PTVETTER · July 10, 2014 1:05AM

In this type of case I would say the owner can set the price and deal one on one with an educated buyer.

Those that go strickly on price guides are NOT educated buyers.

I own a coin kinda of in that class.

It doesn't trade much and as in all grades some coins just look better than others and then some are not so good lookin at all.

REALGATOR · July 10, 2014 1:30AM

They use red and green for a price update. If they have the date of the last update in their database then they could color code "stale" prices (perhaps no data in the past year) as brown or grey.

EastonCollection · July 10, 2014 12:12PM

I agree with everyone comments - I was trying to figure out a way for PCGS to attempt to update coin prices for specific coins. Within the capped bust dimes PCGS price guide, you notice that a coin that is less scarce that recently traded will be listed for more money than the one that hasn't had any trades. I feel that doesn't make sense. Does it?

EastonCollection · July 10, 2014 8:54PM

Hey Realone & Nysoto - your comments about the number of 1814 statesof indicates that there are somewhere of 201 to 500 survivors that still exists in all grades. I am not sure where you are getting this information maybe either from coinfacts or the EUSD book. Personally, I don't think that number is correct. I think that number is closer to the scarcity of the 1809 or 1811/9. If you go to a show or review an auction catalog or review dealer websites, I see more 1809 or 1811/9 offered that 1814 statesof. I don't know how it was ever determined the number of survivors that exists but it appears to me that that number is too high. Agreed they are tough to locate but IMHO they are tougher than the 1809. Also, when comparing to mint state examples - I know that there are a bunch of 1809 & 1811/9 dimes in mint state but I only know of 1 mint state example of the 1814 SOA. Personally, I would like to partition to the JRCS that the rarity number be increased.
Of course, if someone has tuck away a hoard of a roll that I don';t know than the number of 201 to 500 can be correct.

Nysoto · July 10, 2014 11:08PM

Easton - The rarity estimate is from the Early US Dime book, and is derived from the life collecting experiences of Allen Lovejoy, Dave Davis, Russ Logan, Bill Subjack, and John McCloskey. Remember this is an estimate of all grades and condition, not just slabbed. I don't have the book with me, but I verified last night and the authors stated there are at least 6 in MS60 or above, and they also said the variety is not rare. Many are in strong hands that have not seen the market in decades. As I mentioned before, PCGS has not recognized all varieties from inception, so the pop of 30 sounds rare, but how many years does this cover?

Any serious die variety collector will tell you that TPG pops are useless when assessing rarity. Price guides are nothing more than a rough approximation, at best.

edit - the above is not to say that an R-3 scarce rarity is easy to find. To buy one in a problem free grade that a person wants may take some time, perhaps years. However, using the Sheldon rarity scale, the 1814 JR-5 is not "rare." Also, certain Redbook varieties that are not that difficult have increased in price the last 10 years or so, probably from Registry hype, examples are 1806/5 and 1806 pt six no stem half dollars.

EastonCollection · July 11, 2014 2:30AM

Nysoto - I agree with you that the rarity is from the EUSD book that I refer to that book extensively. My main point of this thread is the price guide for 1814 statesof dimes and how low the price is IMHO. If there are 6 examples in mint state condition as referenced in the EUSD book and they are in strong hands to get these coins out requires big time bucks, hence the price guide should reflect that price not some price I am not sure where it is coming from. Thats what a current price guide should be not what that coin sold for 5 years ago.
With respect to rarity - I really don't know how the authors developed the rarity system for the 1814 statesof coin. IMHO, it is much scarcer than what is reported. That book was published in 1990. Its interesting that I have several Alan Lovejoy coins that he felt was mint state and those coins have been graded as either AU58 or AU55. They are not the 1814 statesof but example of rarer varieties that are claimed in the UUSD book to be mint state and are not.
I am a member of the JRCS and ever other year they publish a bust dime census and this past year, I had suggested that they update the rarity of certain die marriages. Unfortunately, it didn't get done because of timing but I feel that this should be updated.

Still unless a bunch of 1814 statesof come on the market, they are IMHO rare and scarce. The price guide is too low and I really don't believe that there are 6 mint state examples of them. Maybe the Pogue collection or several old time collectors have several of them only time will tell. But to get them from them will take more money than the price guide. Thats my definition of rare and scarce.

TahoeDale · July 11, 2014 2:43AM

Easton,

I feel your angst, especially when the guides are used by buyers/dealers to negotiate a lower price than should be paid.
This also discourages some bidders in auction sales where there is the low price guide for a scarce coin, and no recent sales.

I have one suggestion, that DH follows at times( but only when he has direct information of the private sale).

Report to PCGS, through David or Jamie, depending on the series, recent transactions that are not as a result of a public auction.
Recently, the 1794 A/E half in ms 64 was crossed from NGC 64 to PC 64, and was sold by a reputable dealer for over 200,000(private)
The guides now show a price of 195,000.

The sole MS 62 of the same variety, without a sale, is priced at 90,000.

2 years ago, the 1807 sm stars half in 65 traded at an ANA for about 125,000, and price adjustments were made.
But it doesn't always happen. An 1803 small 3 half in AU 58 sold about 18 months ago for over $30,000( high end dealer and collector)
and no price change. Today, a dealer is advertising the second AU 58 small stars coin for 35,000. And the Price guides are still 17,500 for this variety.

So, when trades occur, responses can be made, but when there are no sales or trades???? Difficult but not impossible.

I presently own both a pop 1 draped bust half, none finer, and a CBH-same status They were private sales 7-10 years ago, and of course, there have been no sales or trades reported.
There has been no change in the guides for either coin, though some of the lower grades have traded and adjustments have been made.
The only answer here is auction- no reasonable way for a dealer or even an advanced collector to be able to properly price the coin in todays market.

EastonCollection · July 11, 2014 2:51AM

Further to my point that the price is too low - lets use lower graded coins - In april 2010 the a AG3 sold for $138 and current price guide is $60. Also a fine 12 sold for $1035 and price guide is $375. There are alot more examples where this die marriage sold for considerable higher than price guide. My point is this coin is much scarcer and rarer than the price guide reflects. If you don't think my analysis is correct, then sell me any graded 1814 statesof dime for price guide!

EastonCollection · July 11, 2014 2:56AM

Tahoedate - I completely agree with your analysis and thoughts. My point is if PCGS is maintaining a price guide, then infrequently traded coins need to be priced appropriately as well as frequently traded coins. I used the 1814 statesof dime as a perfect example of the price guide is useless.

Price guide - 1814 statesof - get real!

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